Why I don't collect moderns
AmericanCopper
Posts: 396
Although I don't collect moderns, that was not always the case. I can remember when the Roosevelt Dime first was issued and filling up Jimmy Fund dime boards with them in school and I remember hoarding a couple of rolls of 1950-D nickels for many years waiting for the dealer-promised profits to arrive when they increased to 1000% of the purchased value...lol I put together complete sets of Washington Quarters and Franklin Halves from pocket change. The satisfaction I got from building complete modern series collections was always short-lived however and once completed, rarely gave me any pleasure in re-visiting them. (exception being Lincoln Cent Wheaties).
What truly gave me much more was collecting obsolete type, Walkers and Flyers, Indianheads, and Merc's. Most dates and mintmarks were still in circulation then except key dates. Those I bought through mail order (read Littleton) or from a few local coin shops that rarely had much turnover in their inventories or coins I needed.
My interest in EAC came as a chance find in a jewelry shop in Norwich, Connecticut when I was able to purchase a small hoard of Connecticut Coppers and another find in New London, Connecticut of mid-to-high-grade Fugios. No one that I knew was collecting these and there was scant literature available on them in the '50's. Discovering history through them was a joy that I was unable to find in currant coinage. My fascination with any coin that is more than 100 years old continues to this day.
Now, understand, I am not an "elitist" collector at all, never concerned with the minutia of die marriages or die states...as long as the coin was old, original and the abuse was minimal, I was happy. The history associated with obsolete coins always seemed endless to me, whereas a "modern's" history was pretty limited.
I have never collected with profit in mind, whereas many (not all, but many) of today's modern collectors appear to do so with dollar signs in their eyes. There is nothing wrong with that; I just find it to be very limiting at the expense of collecting coins just for the joy and pleasure of collecting and preserving a long-past heritage.
While there are a few folks here who feel Ms. Serber is continually bashing modern collectors, I have quite a different take on her message. I have to agree with her that paying anything over $1000.00 for coin less than 75 years old (with rare, rare exception), borders on insanity. New mint issues will not hold their value more than a very short time in the secondary market - again, with the disclaimer of rare, rare exception. Ms. Serber has an accurate point and although her delivery could probably use some work, the validity of her claims still hold in my opinion. I feel that she is doing a service to "moderneers", especially newer collectors by telling them the water is not very deep at that end of the pool. She's just putting out cautionary signs for those who tie up fortunes, great and small in a volatile, shallow market.
I know that by invoking Laura in this post, I will automatically raise hackles of some who will seize on that last part and start raising 12 kinds of hell, but I will state for the record that I am in her camp.
Flame on, Macbeth.
What truly gave me much more was collecting obsolete type, Walkers and Flyers, Indianheads, and Merc's. Most dates and mintmarks were still in circulation then except key dates. Those I bought through mail order (read Littleton) or from a few local coin shops that rarely had much turnover in their inventories or coins I needed.
My interest in EAC came as a chance find in a jewelry shop in Norwich, Connecticut when I was able to purchase a small hoard of Connecticut Coppers and another find in New London, Connecticut of mid-to-high-grade Fugios. No one that I knew was collecting these and there was scant literature available on them in the '50's. Discovering history through them was a joy that I was unable to find in currant coinage. My fascination with any coin that is more than 100 years old continues to this day.
Now, understand, I am not an "elitist" collector at all, never concerned with the minutia of die marriages or die states...as long as the coin was old, original and the abuse was minimal, I was happy. The history associated with obsolete coins always seemed endless to me, whereas a "modern's" history was pretty limited.
I have never collected with profit in mind, whereas many (not all, but many) of today's modern collectors appear to do so with dollar signs in their eyes. There is nothing wrong with that; I just find it to be very limiting at the expense of collecting coins just for the joy and pleasure of collecting and preserving a long-past heritage.
While there are a few folks here who feel Ms. Serber is continually bashing modern collectors, I have quite a different take on her message. I have to agree with her that paying anything over $1000.00 for coin less than 75 years old (with rare, rare exception), borders on insanity. New mint issues will not hold their value more than a very short time in the secondary market - again, with the disclaimer of rare, rare exception. Ms. Serber has an accurate point and although her delivery could probably use some work, the validity of her claims still hold in my opinion. I feel that she is doing a service to "moderneers", especially newer collectors by telling them the water is not very deep at that end of the pool. She's just putting out cautionary signs for those who tie up fortunes, great and small in a volatile, shallow market.
I know that by invoking Laura in this post, I will automatically raise hackles of some who will seize on that last part and start raising 12 kinds of hell, but I will state for the record that I am in her camp.
Flame on, Macbeth.
Oh boy...this could be a bad thing.........
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Comments
Keith
nice attractive collonials would make a great collection for me even if only in VG or F
condition. I do collect several old world coins and a few are even older than the col-
onials. One collects ancients or bust halfs or Franklins for different reasons quite of-
ten. Sure, there's no reason someone might not collect Franklins for their artistic merit
or colonials for there excellent strikes but this is usually not the way it works. People
attracted to historically important coins might collect large cents and someone drawn
to inexpensive gold might collect newer issues from the mint.
I'm interested in statistics, the random movement of coins in commerce, and what this
says about economic activity. It's largely the same thing that draws my attention to
trains and what's going on economically around me. I'm also fascinated by the minutia
of the minting process and the various things that can go wrong from the hubs to the
finished product as seen in BU rolls or mint sets. Metallurgy also is of extreme interest
to me so seeing the different rates at which coins wear and the nature of this wear com-
mands my attention. What else would I specialize in if one factors in the fact that my re-
sources preclude an ability to afford nice XF/ AU bust halfs at the current time?
I'm sure it's the same for virtually all collectors.
Where you see the shallow end of a pool others might see a chance to be a big fish in a
little pond. Where you and Legend (legitimately) see risk some see the potential for re-
ward. Where you see speculators seeking quick profits, I usually see real collectors will-
ing to get out of the mainstream (which really is littered with a few sharks).
So, as always, it comes down to "to each his own". Study, learn and avoid speculation
and investment. The more you know the better chance you have of profit anyway. If you
collect with an eye toward enjoyment you'll always haver that as profit.
<< <i>Flame on, Macbeth. >>
Go listen to a Pat Boone cd!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
How about the 1995 W 10th Anniversary Silver Eagle (set)?
I get it. You don't do moderns. Some people do. Most here will tell you coins aren't a good investment, yet many people here buy and sell coins for profit.
John
Never view my other linked pages. They aren't coin related.
I feel compelled to argue with those who do......
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
What data do you haved to prove this over generalization. Last time I looked over the long term price tends in the gray sheet from 1995 to present I find that low mintage moderns have out preformed most other areas of the market new or old.....I fact you have REALLY got to look to find any classic issues that have perfromed as well as the moderns with mintages lower than 7000 over the last 10 years. There are dozens of moderns that have mintages in these low ranges. We are not talking about a five mintute flash......ten years worth of data. Please bring forward your data to back your statement.
ericj96
No worries. This is all about personal preference anyway. I don't have any real expectations for my collection other than to pass to my kids for either their enjoyment or profit.
The modern vs. classic thing is an obvious byproduct of the hobby but what stumps me is many people have posted in the past how we need new collectors. Without question modern mint stuff especially the state quarters and the soon to be Presidential dollars is bringing them in, but as soon as they get in the door lots of people are bashing them for not being real collectors. It seems kind of counter productive.
I'm definitely not saying that's happening in this post because it's not. It's just an observation in general. I think we should encourage all manner of new collectors, even though I'm kind of one myself, although I was a nut over coins when I was a kid and took a very long vacation.
I have my doubts as to the future value of some of the stuff that's getting flipped right now but you can't deny many are making a killing on flipping it right now. Whoever gets caught holding the bag when it cools off is the loser IF they are buying to make a profit in the future.
Edited to fix an incomplete sentence.
John
Never view my other linked pages. They aren't coin related.
now i enjoy picking up classics from people that paid 2-3 times my purchase price 5-15 years ago
<< <i>... The history associated with obsolete coins always seemed endless to me, whereas a "modern's" history was pretty limited.
I have never collected with profit in mind, whereas many (not all, but many) of today's modern collectors appear to do so with dollar signs in their eyes. There is nothing wrong with that; I just find it to be very limiting at the expense of collecting coins just for the joy and pleasure of collecting and preserving a long-past heritage.
...I have to agree with her that paying anything over $1000.00 for coin less than 75 years old (with rare, rare exception), borders on insanity. New mint issues will not hold their value more than a very short time in the secondary market - again, with the disclaimer of rare, rare exception... >>
I've cut your statement down to 3 paragraphs that I'd like to discuss. Vis-a-vis a modern's history, most people on these boards were born within the last 75 years, and I suspect a healthy percentage of them have attempted to collect the best possible coins for their birth year. Second, there has been all sorts of interesting history in the last 75 years, be it associated with coins/economics, e.g. 1964 being the last year of producing circulating silver coinage, or just history in general, lets say finding a nice 1941-P Walker (unquestionably a common coin) to commemorate the start of WW II for the USA.
Regarding the second paragraph, I agree that a lot of people that are collecting today are attempting to make a profit and are forgetting about collecting for collectings sake. Realistically, most of them are going to get burned (I sure did, and I suspect most people, while they were starting collecting coins, were burned also), and then most of them will either (A) give up on coins, or (B) get interested in coins for their inherent sake and thus become true collectors.
Finally, regarding paragraph 3, the nice thing about moderns is that you CAN buy lots of really nice, and tough to find, stuff for less than $1,000. I'm a Frankie collector. I collect cameo/dcam Frankies and toned MS Frankies. For the MS Frankies I have yet to pay over 3 figures for any coin, and yet have managed to scrounge up a high grade attractive set (well, actually about 45% of a set). The rest of the coins will be found over time with patience, and with the joy of finding a tough coin at the right price. The cameo/dcam Frankies are more expensive, but if you look, in higher grades for the respective years, the population hasn't significantly changed in a while, which says something about the series not being filled with "modern crap". For example, using the 10/03 and 10/06 PCGS population reports, the 1962 (the most common Frankie in dcam) in pr68dcam has changed from 123 to 151 or roughly 1 new one being created every 40 days, and that doesn't even include the fact that we know a certain percentage of those "new" coins are actually old coins being resubmitted. Look at some of the mid-level dates for collecting difficulty; the 1961 and 1957. In pr68dcam over 3 years the 1961 has gone from 59 to 70 or roughly one new coin every 100 days. The 1957 in pr68dcam actually DECREASED from 48 to 47. You can buy a screamer dcam 1962 in pr68dcam for significantly less than $1,000, and while a '61 and a '57 will cost you over $1,000 they still seem a very reasonable buy. I am willing to bet the dcam Frankies of this era costing over $1,000 in general will at a minimum hold their value over time.
Getting back to history, just to make it simple, in 1957 Sputnik 1 was launched ushering in the Space Age, in 1961 there was the Bay of Pigs, the Berlin Wall and Alan Shepard becoming the first American in Space, and in 1962 there was the Cuban Missile Crisis. In conclusion there are plenty of neat, tough to find coins minted in the last 75 years that are fun to collect, and that may even prove profitable to collect, and there are plenty of other coins that are inexpensive and just fun to collect.
U.S. Type Set
<< <i>What data do you haved to prove this over generalization. Last time I looked over the long term price tends in the gray sheet from 1995 to present I find that low mintage moderns have out preformed most other areas of the market new or old.....I fact you have REALLY got to look to find any classic issues that have perfromed as well as the moderns with mintages lower than 7000 over the last 10 years. There are dozens of moderns that have mintages in these low ranges. We are not talking about a five mintute flash......ten years worth of data. Please bring forward your data to back your statement.
ericj96 >>
Hi Ericj96 - First, I have no "data" as I don't collect that...I collect coins. As far as coins minted since 1995 with <7000 mintage performing well, I would tend to agree with you they most likely they have performed VERY well. However, take any 12-year period in our history and you look only at coins with <7000 mintage, and I'd bet even money they would overall be compatible. Now, take ALL coins in any 12-year period, and I think you'll find the collector who sells his Bust Halves, Seated Libertys, or Coiled Hair Large Cents will do better overall with ALL his (or her) coins regardless of mintages than the collector of modern sets. But your argument bears fruit to my generalization that many (not all, but more than a few) modern collectors do so for profit and not the associated history of the coins and the genuine love of the hobby. For me, it has ALWAYS been about the pursuit of the coins that link us to our forefathers. Making a buck or two, while nice, was not a consideration to me.
Have I made $$ on Classics?...you bet your booty I have...mostly through holding my coins for longer than most of you have been alive and selling in the up market. And what do I do with that? Wait til the market is down and buy more. Do I do that for profit? Yes and No..it's usually to upgrade or expand any interest I might currently have. Not to make a buck at the expense of some schmoe that pays $800 for an ASE set that I got from the mint a week ago. That was not sold by an ASE collector...but was bought and sold strictly for profit, not as a collectible held by a collector.
The one and only time I have deviated from this was when I sold the bulk of my EAC's to help fund my mother's nursing home expenses.
Now don't get me wrong here...I have no problem with the gentle folks who collect moderns, I am just echoing Laura's stance that paying big bucks for moderns is a dangerous game for collectors to get caught up in and many will take beucoup years to recoup their investments (if ever). I really can't speak overly intelligent about "investment" coins because that isn't how I approach collecting, but I do know that a smart investor that does their homework can make money in any market on any series if that is their goal. For me, however, that is not a consideration in any coin I purchase.
Let me give you an example of the power of modern collecting by design. The total market value of of all silver proof quarters struck form 1936 to 1963 is about 95 million at current prices. The total market value of the 1999 silver proof quarters alone is over 125 million. That one issue has put on more value than the ENTIRE SILVER PROOF QUATER SERIES COMBINED OVER 60 YEARS. This is kind of growth has also shown up in the $5 MS commems from 1986 to present. I looked through the stack of old red books I keep for the coins you listed....bust halves etc. Double over ten years is above average for them and most barely keep up with inflation............
I collect moderns because they are fun and I can buy crazy low mintages on cool designs for very little money. The problem with the classics is they are mature and the collector base for them is not growing. I don't want to put my money in coins that are not building their base. Constant supply and flat base is bad news and I don't want to have my collection caught in it.
ericj96
Go listen to a Pat Boone cd!
<< <i>Now, take ALL coins in any 12-year period, and I think you'll find the collector who sells his Bust Halves, Seated Libertys, or Coiled Hair Large Cents will do better overall with ALL his (or her) coins regardless of mintages than the collector of modern sets. >>
Have you looked at the price guides for modern sets in the last few years? Most are
up very sharply especially on a percentage basis. There's never a gaurantee that fu-
ture results will be the same but there are no classics with the increases commonly
seen in the moderns. Low grade memorial cents list 40% higher than they did a month
ago and thousands of percent higher than in 1999. Are they maxxed out? Time will
tell.
realize how important moderns have been to the hobby....some don't
You can begin buying from the mint and ebay, moderns of course, and
developing an appreciation for the classics.
So if you figure, 1 out of 100 guys who fall in love
moderns and pursue the hobby a tad more into classics
you find yourself with more guys who are hooked
to classics. I feel that that has been driving the market lately.
JMHO>
<< <i>I have no problem with the gentle folks who collect moderns, I am just echoing Laura's stance that paying big bucks for moderns is a dangerous game for collectors to get caught up in and many will take beucoup years to recoup their investments (if ever). >>
See, for as much as a few people think I'm a "modern basher" (despite the fact that I collect some), I don't agree with this statement. I think that there's a pretty decent probability that we are looking at this condition with some of the 2006 Mint bullion issues; that particular market looks like tulip mania to me. But in general? I don't think so. I think that even though many moderns are dime-a-dozen in uncirculated condition, the number of really nice ones is surprisingly small. So as long as the demand remains for them, the market will hang on.
See, with respect to the 2006 bullion issues, I don't think they are dangerous (to those buying at current aftermarket values) because they are modern. I think they are dangerous because history shows that most assets that appreciate this rapidly in speculation and frenzy, and which rely on the "greater fool theory," tend to fall very hard when they fall. Doesn't matter whether it was classic coins in 1989, dot-com stocks in 2000-2001 or Beanie Babies. Excessive hype and "irrational exuberance" almost always dies down, whether by a loss of novelty or an economic air pocket.
If moderns in general are more vulnerable, it would mostly be because they have actually made more gains on a percentage basis than classics. The faster they rise, the harder they fall. That's typical. But it's not because of some sinister dislike of moderns I say this, much to the apparent disagreement of people who think that anyone who speaks with caution of the modern market is a "basher." But there are some pretty overheated classic markets, too. The only difference is that the buy-at-a-high-premium modern market is still mostly an "emerging market" in the coin world, and just like the emerging markets in the stock market, that means higher risk but potentially higher reward. If the current modern enthusiasts stay with it through downturns just as classic enthusiasts have over time, the long term prospects for the modern market is just fine.
#1. Because it's none of my business
#2. Because you can collect what ever you want to collect
#3. Because what you collect makes zero difference to what I am collecting or will collect
<< <i>
<< <i>I have no problem with the gentle folks who collect moderns, I am just echoing Laura's stance that paying big bucks for moderns is a dangerous game for collectors to get caught up in and many will take beucoup years to recoup their investments (if ever). >>
See, for as much as a few people think I'm a "modern basher" (despite the fact that I collect some), I don't agree with this statement. I think that there's a pretty decent probability that we are looking at this condition with some of the 2006 Mint bullion issues; that particular market looks like tulip mania to me. But in general? I don't think so. I think that even though many moderns are dime-a-dozen in uncirculated condition, the number of really nice ones is surprisingly small. So as long as the demand remains for them, the market will hang on.
See, with respect to the 2006 bullion issues, I don't think they are dangerous (to those buying at current aftermarket values) because they are modern. I think they are dangerous because history shows that most assets that appreciate this rapidly in speculation and frenzy, and which rely on the "greater fool theory," tend to fall very hard when they fall. Doesn't matter whether it was classic coins in 1989, dot-com stocks in 2000-2001 or Beanie Babies. Excessive hype and "irrational exuberance" almost always dies down, whether by a loss of novelty or an economic air pocket.
If moderns in general are more vulnerable, it would mostly be because they have actually made more gains on a percentage basis than classics. The faster they rise, the harder they fall. That's typical. But it's not because of some sinister dislike of moderns I say this, much to the apparent disagreement of people who think that anyone who speaks with caution of the modern market is a "basher." But there are some pretty overheated classic markets, too. The only difference is that the buy-at-a-high-premium modern market is still mostly an "emerging market" in the coin world, and just like the emerging markets in the stock market, that means higher risk but potentially higher reward. If the current modern enthusiasts stay with it through downturns just as classic enthusiasts have over time, the long term prospects for the modern market is just fine. >>
Certainly things that go up far faster and higher than their historic norms
often come crashing down but what many are overlooking is that many of
the moderns have no "historic norms". People simply didn't collect these
coins much before 1999 so rare coins had little value. It might be years yet
before we have any idea of what is an historic norm. It might be lower than
today's price and it just might be much higher.
I have never collected with profit in mind, whereas many (not all, but many) of today's modern collectors appear to do so with dollar signs in their eyes. There is nothing wrong with that; I just find it to be very limiting at the expense of collecting coins just for the joy and pleasure of collecting and preserving a long-past heritage.
American Copper - At last, a reasonable and rational voice amongst the classic coin collectors! I must tell you, I agree with 99% of what you say in your posts. And most of all, I appreciate the way in which you state your positions, without rancor. Thank you for your comments.
One thing that Eric forgot to point out is that most of the modern coins he finds fascinating are also bullion. When you warn about trading in a volatile and thinly traded market, consider that the underlying bullion markets far outweigh the coin market in total, so there really is an element of market stability and liquidity.
When I buy these coins, I consider why I like bullion as an investment at the same time I am using my knowledge of the modern coin market to optimize my selection of the coins I decide to buy. I feel safer in buying these issues than I have ever felt in the stock market, or in any other investment vehicle, and I know this market well.
Also, please consider that the designs of some of these coins are also new renditions of the classic designs we all admired while growing up. From my perspective, it's great to finally be able to afford what I believe are modern classics.
It's also great to be able to buy them in quantity for speculation, hopefully to help tide me over in 15 or 20 years - they are valuable now, but they will be even more valuable when I need them most. In the meantime, some of my extras will be spun off in order to swap for some excellent large cents, my "other" coin collecting endeavor.
Thanks again for being a good guy.
I knew it would happen.
While there may be some that feel I missed the point on this issue, anyone can review the history of many of the classic coins and see how many of their mintages were affected by the hoarding of these coins by the modern collectors of that time.
I collect both.
I buy and sell both. some for a profit some for a loss and some to upgrade.
So what's the big deal anyhow?
Larry
Dabigkahuna
Although I collect moderns, that was not always the case. I can't remember when the Roosevelt Dime first was issued, I have no idea what a Jimmy Fund dime board is and I never hoarded rolls of 1950-D nickels waiting for the dealer-promised profits to arrive when they increased to 1000% of the purchased value because i didn't let myself get sucked in by that hype...lol I tried to put together complete sets of Washington Quarters and Franklin Halves from pocket change. The satisfaction I got from building complete modern series collections stayed with me for a long time and once completed, gave me as much pleasure as when i was assmebling the sets, pleasure in re-visiting them.
What also gave me pleasure was collecting obsolete type, Walkers and Flyers, Indianheads, and Merc's. Many dates and mintmarks were still in circulation than except key dates. Those I couldn't find remained as empty holes in my coin books.
My interest in SC$'s came as a chance find in a local coin shop in Madison, Ohio. No one that I knew was collecting these and there was scant literature available on them in the late 90's. Discovering history through them was a joy that I was unable to find in current coinage. My fascination with almost any coin or medal continues to this day.
Now, understand, I am not an "elitist" collector at all, though i do concern myself with studying and learning about die marriages or die states and all sorts of other cool Nusmatic stuff...as long as I was enjoying the hobby I was happy. The history associated with most things Numismatic always seems endless to me.
I have always collected with profit in mind, or at least with not losing money, and so do many (not all, but many) of today's dealers/collectors, appearring to do so with dollar signs in their eyes. There is nothing wrong with that.
While there are a few folks here who are correct in assuming that Ms. Sperber is continually bashing modern collectors, I happen to be one of them. I hardly ever agree with her opinion about anything when she starts ranting, especially wannabe's and ModernCrap™ because it usually borders on insanity. New mint issues may or may not hold their value more than a very short time in the secondary market, and i think it's OK if collectors want to buy/speculate/collect that sort of stuff, I'm just not one of them - again, with the disclaimer of rare, rare exception. Ms. Sperber hasn't had an accurate point in my book for quite some time and her delivery hasn't changed in years and no doubt could use some work in my opinion. I feel that she is doing a disservice to "moderneers", especially newer collectors by telling them what to collect and what to avoid. She's just putting out hype for the area of the hobby that she participates in hoping down the road to perhaps tie up fortunes, great and small.
I know that by invoking Laura in this post, I will automatically raise hackles of some who hang on her every word, but then this is just a spoof. hopefully noone will seize on that last part and start raising 12 kinds of hell, but I will state for the record that I am not, have never been and never hope to be in her camp.
Flame on, Horatio..................or was that Yorrick?