OK - so who can really tell the difference between modern MS or PF 70's, 69's or 68 args?

claychaser · October 21, 2006 6:19AM

Here is my challenge: Take 20 freshly graded coins of the same issue from the same grading service, say 20 proof, reverse proof, or uncirculated silver eagles, or gold eagles, or Marine Corps dollars, or any current modern issue. As an example, 10 coins would be 70's, 5 would be 69's, and 5 68's. Put a post-it over the assigned grade on each slab.

1. What percentage would a professional grader get correct?
2. Would there be any grades over a one point difference from the assigned grades?

Are there any forum members up for a contest at a future major show?

My point is - is there any real difference in the coins?

SilverEagles92 · October 21, 2006 6:24AM

Between a 68 and a 69/70 there might be a slight difference. Maybe a spot, a small hairline, etc. But between 69-70, I believe there is no difference.

clackamas · October 21, 2006 6:33AM

There is a difference. Take a modern proof, look at the rims, are there ANY small nicks anywhere, rims? If yes PF69. For PF70 it is perfect but more than that the rims will be fully struck up. there are tons of perfect coin but will have the slightest weakness in rim strike, they won't go PF70.

RichieURich · October 21, 2006 6:33AM

I did look at a MS-70 and a PR-70 Marines commem the other day and I saw spots on both.

JRocco · October 21, 2006 6:43AM

The best way to answer your question is to crack out ten proof 69's and ten proof 70's and resubmit them to the same company. Alright---stop laughing----- well if you get the same ten 69's to come back 69 ( I see you laughing again) and the same ten 70's to come back 70 then I guess there really is a difference between the 2 grades...

Alright---you can laugh now

bumanchu · October 21, 2006 6:44AM

I don't know exactly how to describe "a 70",

but I know "it" when I see it!

bumanchu · October 21, 2006 6:46AM

But yes there is a difference and I can tell you that I personally wouldn't hand out very many 70's.

ziggy29 · October 21, 2006 7:01AM

I can probably tell the difference between a 68 and a 70.

Between a 68 and a 69, or a 69 and a 70? Doubt it.

fengk · October 21, 2006 7:20AM

Here's another way to find out: Take a few 69's and a few 70's of the same type. Cover up the grade. Then, grab a professional grade (making sure to keep him alive) and make him grade the coins for you. See how accurate he is, and there ya go. Now if you took 68's and 70's, you may wind up with a few 69's.

LindeDad · October 21, 2006 7:28AM

The difference in a 69 and a 70 is the size of the check to buy it.

Myqqy · October 21, 2006 7:34AM

ms70/pr70 grades make me think of the wizard of oz, and that little man who made others buy into the illusion that he was the big, bad wizard....

53BKid · October 21, 2006 8:02AM

You raise a good point. Very often the 69s and 70s appear indistinguishable to me.

My confidence in PCGS graders went down a lot this fall. I sent in some of the gold buffalo proof. One had an unusual double nick above the indian's eyebrow that was readily seen under a 3x glass. All came back 69s.

I know that 70s are tough to obtain, but putting a coin that clearly had sustained some sort of damage on the same plane as the others I submitted suggested to me that these guys are more arbitrary about their grading when it comes to high end moders that I would have ever thought. Which is why some people crack open their cases for resubmission, finding success in subsequent regrades. I personally, don't have the time or the extra dollars to spend doing that though.

nankraut · October 21, 2006 8:13AM

Well....apparently the TPG'S think they can tell the difference.

cladking · October 21, 2006 9:23AM

I collect the obsolete mint state clad quarters. Were there any in MS-69 or MS-70 then I
doubt I'd have any trouble telling them apart. There certainly is no difficulty spotting the
differences between 65 to 68.

Even most of the coins that do exist in 69 and 70 one can learn to see these differences
and after you learn a few the others will come naturally.

There is a single US coin made for circulation in MS-70. Lumping moderns as you have is
misleading. Their only common characteristic is that they are newer and you can't even
achieve a consensus on how much newer. You can't even get everyone to agree that
there is a single cutoff date for each denomination.

perfectstrike · October 21, 2006 11:45AM

Only cladking chimed in about business strikes but there are a number of board members that do bulk submissions and you have to get it right or it costs big time. I've only made one MS68 or better submission and ~90% made the grade. I don't always do that well on smaller submissions. Proofs, I could never get that close.

David

Conder101 · October 21, 2006 11:55PM

I'll just say one thing. Remember that in the PCGS world series of grading, the PCGS graders agreed with the PCGS assigned grades only 70% of the time. And they weren't dealing with the highly subjective 68/69/70 problem. I would suspect that if they did that 70% figure would go down further.

7Jaguars · October 22, 2006 1:53AM

OK, I just want to add a little more to what has been said: I don't think that there are clear differences between the 69 and 70 grade and that a different day or time or grader (or even the same grader) will yield differing grades with TPG's. I am a trained observer and have worked extensively with microscopy for many years in a different field and have seen many holdered "70"s that simply are NOT flawless regardless of PCGS or NGC status. I have occasionally bought bullion or commems (widgets all) holdered but will not pay any premium for the holder over just the mint capsule. Is it just me or has anybody else seen a correlation between grade and the probable size (based on grading numbers and $$ spent) of the submitter? In other words if I am a small guy and send in 5-10 coins will my would my percentage of graded 70s be less than some of the "big" folks that we all know and love?

Not to condemn on the basis of a single coin but I have a Community Service $ in a PCGS 69 with an enormous fingertip print at 12 o'clock on the obverse. Many other examples as well. Think I will let the Jackie Rob. unc. stay in its mint capsule.

Also, I think the number of late date commems still in mint capsules that grade anything less than 69 are very scarce & mostly packaging problems if so. All the hype is showing signs of dying thankfully, and people will start to behave a bit more rationally about the prices they pay for such.

TwoSides2aCoin · October 22, 2006 2:18AM

I can tell the difference between a 69 and a 70. Good thing for you guys with PF70 or MS70 coins that I wasn't the finalizer.

7Jaguars · October 22, 2006 8:37AM

Always good to be confident! Not sure if we are capable of judging ouselves however.

xbob · October 22, 2006 8:48AM

I can tell when a coin is not a 70. However I cannot tell when a coin is a 70. My best guesses at a 70, being a coin with no visible imperfections, end up grading 69. Coins that have one little speck of imperfection also grade 69. 70's are a roll of the dice IMHO.

Bochiman · October 22, 2006 3:46PM

<< <i>I did look at a MS-70 and a PR-70 Marines commem the other day and I saw spots on both. >>

Were they there when it was raw and being graded? That's the key.
Maybe they were "spittle" from someone's breath that didn't show up until after slabbing...?

wondercoin · October 22, 2006 4:03PM

"Are there any forum members up for a contest at a future major show?"

Neat idea. But, I'll need a "ringer" for this contest. I'll enter my 14 year old son Justin and bet dinner at the finest restaurant in town (selected by Mr Eureka as he really knows his dining) that he outscores any other participant out there, collector, dealer or professional grader who wants to take that bet and play against him. And, it may also prove that it is so easy to actually tell the difference between a "true" PCGS 69 and 70 graded coin that even a 14 year can do it easily

Justin will be at the next Long Beach show and possibly even FUN. Just tell us where and when. We'll play!

Wondercoin.

7Jaguars · October 22, 2006 10:39PM

You know this can get to sound like an ego contest, with the new variant on "my big brother can beat you up" coming into play in some cases, and others stating how fantastic they are at telling the difference themselves.

The point is, 14 year old son or not, is exactly this: what is being called into question is the "standard". If the standard is flawed and somebody is good at mimicking a flawed standard, who really cares? Please note this is with all due respect as I am sure your son is absolutely a genius.

Coxe · October 22, 2006 10:59PM

<< <i>The best way to answer your question is to crack out ten proof 69's and ten proof 70's and resubmit them to the same company. Alright---stop laughing----- well if you get the same ten 69's to come back 69 ( I see you laughing again) and the same ten 70's to come back 70 then I guess there really is a difference between the 2 grades...

Alright---you can laugh now

>>

If they are all the same issue, how would you determine which was which? I suppose if you labeled each flip with the invoice line number your submission would probably be entered that way. One would never know for certain without separate submissions. Mix them in with 20 other submissions not containing that date/denom. That would also throw gradeing conditions/times variables in there.

I think a 70 submitted repeatedly would tend to statistically return as a 70 about double the statistical frequency of a 70 over 69 grade and a 69 would make a 0 about half of that frequency. It would vary on the coin, but if all the 69s and 70s were recursively submitted, an excellent (fantasy) test of the grading services would be to see that the frequency (pop ratio) would be maintained fairly constant. A 69 that missed 70 would eventually make it and could oscillate slowly. A 70 that had an imperfection would be caught in time and possibly oscillate slowly too.

Actually I wrote a quick simulation of this and found it to be very stable. Above 65% probability of getting a 70, a bifurcation develops and is dramatic at higher probabilities. For the typical issues where 70 pops are far lower than 69 pops and using this model, thus the probability of a 70 is very low, it is stable. For some ultramodern issue where grade 70 might actually be fairly common as populations (though individual coin might go back and forth upon resubmission), TPG stability would be questionable.

claychaser · October 24, 2006 1:52AM

I think that Coxe had a good reply, but I'm just not smart enough to understand it! Can you give us the "Probability and Statistics for Dummies" version - for "the rest of us"????

Coinguy1 - are you up for this challenge?

RichieURich · October 24, 2006 2:30AM

<< <i>

<< <i>I did look at a MS-70 and a PR-70 Marines commem the other day and I saw spots on both. >>

Were they there when it was raw and being graded? That's the key.
Maybe they were "spittle" from someone's breath that didn't show up until after slabbing...? >>

Bochiman, I don't know. What happened is that I was shown the 2 coins and given the (reasonable) prices, but I passed because of the spots. I hadn't slabbed the coins nor had the other dealer, so I'm not certain exactly what happened. I did know, however, that any prospective buyer would have also noticed the spots and not purchased the coins. It probably was a post-slabbing problem.

OK - so who can really tell the difference between modern MS or PF 70's, 69's or 68 args?

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