What is an accurate price guide to use?

AnkurJ · October 9, 2006 9:48AM

I had been told different things by many people on how to find accurate market values on coins. Some said the gray sheet, red book, heritage auction results, coin mags, the pcgs website etc. There are others who have said all of those are NOT accurate. So......what is a good guide to use when buying coins? Advice will be much appreciated!
Ankur

MYTWOCENTS · October 9, 2006 9:54AM

I use a combo of heritage auction results and the gray sheet. Different things work for different people... My advice is not to use pcgs or red book

robertpr · October 9, 2006 9:56AM

Use the QVC/HSN/SAH prices realized index.

DaveG · October 9, 2006 10:17AM

It really depends on what kind of coins you're buying (and where you're buying them).

The Red Book is only updated once a year, so you can guess how accurate it's likely to be.

The Grey Sheet is the standard sight-seen wholesale price guide, but you have to know how to use it - are the coins you're interested in actively traded? Is the Grey Sheet widely reputed to be "too low" for the coins you're interested in? Etc., etc.

Coin World's Coin Values (formerly called Trends) is the leading retail price guide, but, again, you have to know how to use it - some coins sell for more than Trends and some sell for much less.

The Heritage results have the advantage of being comprehensive and reasonably "real time" - the problem is that you can't see the coins to judge how attractive they are for the assigned grade. Also, Heritage may auction many examples of a particular coin, but only one or two examples of another coin - obviously, their archives will be "better" for the coin that shows up more often.

It also matters where you're buying coins - auctions, coin shows, coin shops, etc. If you're buying a coin at a live auction, you know that the price you pay is "correct" for that moment in time. After all, you've got knowledgable buyers competing against you.

On the other hand, if you're buying at a coin shop, you may have to pay a bit more than you would at auction or a coin show because the dealer has to pay the overhead for his shop.

Also, remember that no price guide can be "100% accurate" because the coin market is always going up or going down and the price guide was published last week or last month and the coin market has moved since it was printed.

The main thing is to become as knowledgable as you can in the series you collect.

HighRelief · October 9, 2006 10:35AM

I like to look into past auctions with Heritage. Doing your homework will pay off for you in the long run.

1921obsession · October 9, 2006 10:40AM

Well, if you want to buy a coin, it's probably best to look at records of what they've actually sold for, rather than somebody's printed concept of what the price *should* be. Depending on what particular type you're interested in, you might have to get creative about finding venues where they've sold, or are selling. For me, it all starts at Heritage. I don't shop without a Heritage archive window open.

seemyauction · October 9, 2006 10:41AM

First you have to figure out what you are or what you want to be.

1 Collector Red book (prices change only once a year)
2 Dealer Grey Sheet (prices change monthly, weekly, daily)
3 Investor find a trusted dealer/broker

AnkurJ · October 9, 2006 11:26AM

I am primarily buying Morgans from dealers and ebay. I look at several references before buying anything, but it still seems like I have paid too much according to others. Esp the 1895 O Morgan I posted. I checked Heritage prices for the same grade by NGC, and the prices were similar to what I got it for. But still, everyone said I paid too much for the coin.

In any case. I will keep looking at Heritage and the gray sheet. Obviously the other sources I was using such as the PCGS website prices and the Red book are not accurate. Thanks for the advice everyone. I have A LOT to learn. Esp about grading.

Ankur

DaveG · October 9, 2006 12:33PM

Don't forget that no one can accurately grade a coin from an image bacause you can't rotate the coin under a light source (which is an important part of grading the coin), nor does the image always portray the coin accurately.

Therefore, an image may make a coin look "cleaned" or "without luster" which would affect whether a viewer would agree that you paid an appropriate amount for the coin.

The bottom line is that, at any given moment, when you are offered a coin, you either have to pay what the seller wants or you have to walk away from the coin. At that moment, it doesn't matter what the Heritage archives say, it doesn't matter what any price guide says - only you can make the pay or walk away decision.

The more information you have, the more coins you see, the more knowledge you have - they all factor into your decision.

As to whether your 1895-O Morgan was a smart purchase - only you can tell, because only you have the coin in-hand. The only thing I know for sure is that in two years, after you've seen hundreds or thousands of Morgan dollars and bought (and sold) many, you'll be able to give a much more educated answer to your question.

p.s., don't forget to try to sell some coins along the way - the answers you get here are "all talk"; an offer to buy your coin is "all action."

yellowjacket · October 9, 2006 1:20PM

DaveG couldn't have said it any plainer, better, any more succinctly. It is right on time information.

Look at the coin. Look at your needs, look at all of the information about the market and make YOUR decision.

I have made purchases that have shown up on the Heritage archives and wondered, "Am I setting a market trend with this purchase?"

Sometimes you have to stretch to get the perfect coin you have been looking for.

Other times, it's too much and you have to walk away.

You have to feel good about the buy you are making given all of the factors that DaveG expressed.

Coxe · October 9, 2006 1:43PM

Heritage auction archive (Teletrade maybe for toners). You can not only get an accurate price in the grade but see its variations based on individual coin characteristics within the grade.

clw54 · October 9, 2006 1:59PM

<< <i>What is an accurate price guide to use? >>

EBay. That's what they're actually selling for, at least in one venue.

What is an accurate price guide to use?

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