<< <i>I think definitely you would see an auction company folding. I have my idea as to which one, but I will not give my prediction right now. At the risk of agreeing with Laura, I think there will be a large decrease in the number of "semi-professional" dealers who try to transact business with the public. I am sure they will still collect, but there will be less emphasis on dealing. On the collector front, I think there will also be a decrease in the number of active collectors (do you know anyone who actively collect baseball cards or stamps right now with a passion?). I think the major dealers, in general, will still be around, but business to the public will not be nearly as good or as active as it is right now where coins literally fly out the door. >>
You obviously don't visit the other forums. Baseball cards, actually all sports cards, are hot with a huge following and always have been. Don't you watch baseball or football? I don't have it in front of me, but what I read recently over 50% of the baseball and football fans in this country buy at least "some" cards. The only thing I can tell you about stamps is they are really hot and just in the early stages. PSE! PSE! PSE! has done a marvelous job in their grading and formenting the new markets. Why do you think some savvy coin dealers (Hi Tom...you're busted!) like DLRC have been moving into stamps? The person you mention by name in your post has even commented about stamps...twice I've noticed...here on the Coin Forum. If you need links to Stamp Auctions to see what's going on, just click on PSE at the top of the page!
Stamps are hot again? What's it been, about 27 years? That's just more fuel for coins. Rock on. And the fat lady (sorry Maurice) hasn't even sung a note yet.
<< <i>Stamps are hot again? What's it been, about 27 years? That's just more fuel for coins. Rock on. And the fat lady (sorry Maurice) hasn't even sung a note yet.
roadrunner >>
No, it's not more fuel for coins. It's the other way around this time. The influx of new people and money into coins finally spilled into the currency hobby beginning about 2 years ago. Which in turn has now started to pour, very noticeably in the past 6 months, into collectible stamps. Altered surfaces to coins is as bad as hinges to stamps. Just something to remember.
What I really meant to say is that if stamps are doing good, then coins are (or will be) doing REAL good. My stamp collecting career ended in the early-70's. I tended to lick my hinges and glue them into the book......very smart huh? I was one of the chumps who bit on those buy 100 foreign stamps for $10 deals. Sold them the entire collection for $20 I think.
roadrunner, you too? yes, I collected stamps as a boy, before coins ... and I did lick them all and put them in the albums LOL !!!!!!! I thought they looked very neat that way. Then, after I learned that was bad, I tried mounting them properly, but they were so flimsy and easy to damage. That's when i decided coins made much more sense ... metal !! not paper !!! ... I became very quickly hooked ... this was in the early 70's (I was born in 1961).
My father found a brand new Zepplin stamp in his day (that upside down stamp) and proceeded to use folded over scotch tape to adhere the the back of the stamp to his book!!!!
When the scotch tape finally wore off, he proceeded to use yet another piece!
The end will begin when speculators dump hundreds of thousands of 20th Anniversary American Eagle coins this October thru December followed by a new bull market in spring of '07.
<< <i>roadrunner, you too? yes, I collected stamps as a boy, before coins ... and I did lick them all and put them in the albums LOL !!!!!!! I thought they looked very neat that way. Then, after I learned that was bad, I tried mounting them properly, but they were so flimsy and easy to damage. That's when i decided coins made much more sense ... metal !! not paper !!! ... I became very quickly hooked ... this was in the early 70's (I was born in 1961).
If this coin market starts moving down there will be fewer and fewer people on these boards. It's not near as much fun watching it go down, as it is going up.
Market corrections are inevitable, and beneficial, as others have pointed out.
We still have some fundamental, sustaining influences to consider, though.
Investors and speculators have yet to run up this market as wildly as they did in the late 80s.
We still have the Baby Boomers approaching retirement, leisure time and discretionary money from inheritances, real estate and surviving retirement plans and 401-Ks that will be issuing cash.
We still have the influx of new collectors who (among those who stick with the hobby) have yet to make their move our of state quarters to the classic series.
We still have a stagnant stock market, oil uncertainties and other harbingers to make people nervous about keeping their money in cash or securities.
We still have people worrying about the long term health of the economy, and about eventual inflation.
For reasons such as these, my own guess is for no collapse, but instead a healthy shake-out and a selective but cumulative recovery.
As always, there is the worry about a rush of speculators, but there appears to be no mood for that now.
If history proves right look for sustained stagnation or price drops in high grade (not just ultra grades) key morgans and other key series. This will show a general slow down but other things will still be hot or getting hot.. Market is different today, I dont believe we will see a big overall bear mkts like we used too.
Regards Brian Kuszmar
Brian Kuszmar Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions? Call anytime 954-493-8811
True rarities won't be hurt too bad though we may have seen the end of the big price jumps.
Hyped pseudo-rarities that depend on the plastic for their value will be battered.
Low-end of grade/overgraded/ugly slabbed coins will be unsaleable unless discounted to the next lower grade (and there an awful lot of these floating around out there!)
Problem-free collector coins will probably do ok, but economic pressures on the middle class (witness Ford) will have a dampening effect. Prices will probably soften even for nice pieces.
Recent US Mint material will be battered if buyers can't flip them for quick profits. There is a lot of capital tied up in recent gold issues.
The toned coin boom is over.
More coins than ever will be "conserved" to make them bright white. Too many collectors will be afraid to buy anything that is toned.
The next few months are going to be a period of great uncertainty in the coin field. Auction bills are due and many of the coins remain in inventory. Credit card payments for the 3 piece gold sets will be coming due. If the 3 piece gold sets can't be flipped quickly there will be a capital crunch as many buyers were counting on very big and very quick profits.
Serious collectors with solid finances will be disappointed at the quality of what is being offered and will pull back. The "good stuff" is back in the safe deposit boxes and will stay there until the next boom.
Nostradamus predicted the next coin market downturn as you can see below.
Pau, Nay, Loron will be more of fire than blood, to swim in praise, the great one to flee to the confluence (of rivers). He will refuse entry to the magpies Pampon and the Durance will keep them confined.
I'm just getting back into coins this week after a five year hiatus. After some research, I am amazed at how much prices have risen.
Seeing price moves like this doesn't seem to bode well for further price increases (in my experience).
BTW - what happened to jpkinla's registry sets? I was enjoying looking at them earlier this week and now the links are dead. >>
Welcome aboard Dave0126.
Large price gains in and of themselves are not indicative of a potential collapse. Some things have good fundamental reasons to experience very large price gains and these might continue higher even in a bear market. It is where large gains are primarily the result of speculation that there is a risk of severe drops. This risk is caused by mass de- sertion of markets by those who fear further drops. Since speculators have no other rea- son to hold something than to profit they fear being the last out so often will all try being the first out. Massive selling into much decreased demand has caused price decimation many times in the past.
Comments
My stock will be fine in a down market.
My house value will be fine because of the area.
Only modern crap will crash.
<< <i>So which auction firm will fold? >>
My guess, "B&M" and/or Superior.
Ed. S.
(EJS)
<< <i>I think definitely you would see an auction company folding. I have my idea as to which one, but I will not give my prediction right now. At the risk of agreeing with Laura, I think there will be a large decrease in the number of "semi-professional" dealers who try to transact business with the public. I am sure they will still collect, but there will be less emphasis on dealing. On the collector front, I think there will also be a decrease in the number of active collectors (do you know anyone who actively collect baseball cards or stamps right now with a passion?). I think the major dealers, in general, will still be around, but business to the public will not be nearly as good or as active as it is right now where coins literally fly out the door. >>
You obviously don't visit the other forums. Baseball cards, actually all sports cards, are hot with a huge following and always have been. Don't you watch baseball or football? I don't have it in front of me, but what I read recently over 50% of the baseball and football fans in this country buy at least "some" cards. The only thing I can tell you about stamps is they are really hot and just in the early stages. PSE! PSE! PSE! has done a marvelous job in their grading and formenting the new markets. Why do you think some savvy coin dealers (Hi Tom...you're busted!) like DLRC have been moving into stamps? The person you mention by name in your post has even commented about stamps...twice I've noticed...here on the Coin Forum. If you need links to Stamp Auctions to see what's going on, just click on PSE at the top of the page!
Jerry
roadrunner
<< <i>There won't be a bear market. It's different this time.
Russ, NCNE >>
I tend to agree with you Russ on this comment and your other comment regarding strong hands don't have to sell.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Stamps are hot again? What's it been, about 27 years? That's just more fuel for coins. Rock on. And the fat lady (sorry Maurice) hasn't even sung a note yet.
roadrunner >>
No, it's not more fuel for coins. It's the other way around this time. The influx of new people and money into coins finally spilled into the currency hobby beginning about 2 years ago. Which in turn has now started to pour, very noticeably in the past 6 months, into collectible stamps. Altered surfaces to coins is as bad as hinges to stamps. Just something to remember.
Jerry
roadrunner
Best,
Sunnywood
Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
Me, three.
My father found a brand new Zepplin stamp in his day (that upside down stamp) and proceeded to use folded over scotch tape to adhere the the back of the stamp to his book!!!!
When the scotch tape finally wore off, he proceeded to use yet another piece!
We'll be there when people sell at any price.
PCGS closes down the Open Forum.
Camelot
Camelot
If there is a correction it'll be short lived.
I thought about it and it could be the one event that could cause the next bear market in the US coin market!
He said that he ordered coins from the US Mint and it was the first time in nearly 20 years.
Think about it.
"BEAR MARKET". Its not fair.
Camelot
42 years of collecting and haven't broken the ice yet..........
roadrunner
<< <i>roadrunner, you too? yes, I collected stamps as a boy, before coins ... and I did lick them all and put them in the albums LOL !!!!!!! I thought they looked very neat that way. Then, after I learned that was bad, I tried mounting them properly, but they were so flimsy and easy to damage. That's when i decided coins made much more sense ... metal !! not paper !!! ... I became very quickly hooked ... this was in the early 70's (I was born in 1961).
Best,
Sunnywood >>
Buy the stamp, not the plastic!
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
Not a chance. I don't deal with lowlifes; their checks bounce.
Camelot
I'm just getting back into coins this week after a five year hiatus. After some research, I am amazed at how much prices have risen.
Seeing price moves like this doesn't seem to bode well for further price increases (in my experience).
BTW - what happened to jpkinla's registry sets? I was enjoying looking at them earlier this week and now the links are dead.
We still have some fundamental, sustaining influences to consider, though.
Investors and speculators have yet to run up this market as wildly as they did in the late 80s.
We still have the Baby Boomers approaching retirement, leisure time and discretionary money from inheritances, real estate and surviving retirement plans and 401-Ks that will be issuing cash.
We still have the influx of new collectors who (among those who stick with the hobby) have yet to make their move our of state quarters to the classic series.
We still have a stagnant stock market, oil uncertainties and other harbingers to make people nervous about keeping their money in cash or securities.
We still have people worrying about the long term health of the economy, and about eventual inflation.
For reasons such as these, my own guess is for no collapse, but instead a healthy shake-out and a selective but cumulative recovery.
As always, there is the worry about a rush of speculators, but there appears to be no mood for that now.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Regards
Brian Kuszmar
Second Generation Coin, Currency and Precious Metals Dealer
Coin, Currency or Bullion Questions?
Call anytime 954-493-8811
Hyped pseudo-rarities that depend on the plastic for their value will be battered.
Low-end of grade/overgraded/ugly slabbed coins will be unsaleable unless discounted to the next lower grade (and there an awful lot of these floating around out there!)
Problem-free collector coins will probably do ok, but economic pressures on the middle class (witness Ford) will have a dampening effect. Prices will probably soften even for nice pieces.
Recent US Mint material will be battered if buyers can't flip them for quick profits. There is a lot of capital tied up in recent gold issues.
The toned coin boom is over.
More coins than ever will be "conserved" to make them bright white. Too many collectors will be afraid to buy anything that is toned.
The next few months are going to be a period of great uncertainty in the coin field. Auction bills are due and many of the coins remain in inventory. Credit card payments for the 3 piece gold sets will be coming due. If the 3 piece gold sets can't be flipped quickly there will be a capital crunch as many buyers were counting on very big and very quick profits.
Serious collectors with solid finances will be disappointed at the quality of what is being offered and will pull back. The "good stuff" is back in the safe deposit boxes and will stay there until the next boom.
Pau, Nay, Loron will be more of fire than blood,
to swim in praise, the great one to flee to the confluence (of rivers).
He will refuse entry to the magpies
Pampon and the Durance will keep them confined.
<< <i>Hello all,
I'm just getting back into coins this week after a five year hiatus. After some research, I am amazed at how much prices have risen.
Seeing price moves like this doesn't seem to bode well for further price increases (in my experience).
BTW - what happened to jpkinla's registry sets? I was enjoying looking at them earlier this week and now the links are dead.
Welcome aboard Dave0126.
Large price gains in and of themselves are not indicative of a potential collapse. Some
things have good fundamental reasons to experience very large price gains and these
might continue higher even in a bear market. It is where large gains are primarily the
result of speculation that there is a risk of severe drops. This risk is caused by mass de-
sertion of markets by those who fear further drops. Since speculators have no other rea-
son to hold something than to profit they fear being the last out so often will all try being
the first out. Massive selling into much decreased demand has caused price decimation
many times in the past.