I just occurred to me that you are using the Order Number as a proxy for sales. Remember that ALL items share the same order numbering sequence, so you have to figure a percentage. To do that you have to know the demand curve for the product. I stand by my earlier prediction.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
I have a thought they won't say they are sold out until after the mailers have been sent out...since I would say that 75% of the collectors don't even know they exist...and if they are sold out before the mailers there will be some ruffled feathers, maybe!
<< <i>I have a thought they won't say they are sold out until after the mailers have been sent out...since I would say that 75% of the collectors don't even know they exist...and if they are sold out before the mailers there will be some ruffled feathers, maybe! >>
I believe that is a certainty. If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't have known about this collection.
Also, if they (all sets) are sold out before the 75% of the collectors get a chance to buy one, it will help drive prices up.
Being a member of the forum is a HUGH help in getting the head's up on these things. And imagine not having access to the internet..... and trying to keep current on Mint offerings, let alone try to purchase any before the limits run out....
I do not think there is a rhyme or reason to the "on hold" or "in process" message. I ordered 10-3 pc. silver sets on the 2nd and 1-2 pc. silver/gold set on the 4th. They both showed as being "on hold" for several days. Now the more limited set I ordered on the 4th shows "in process" while the silver sets I ordered on the 2nd are still "on hold".
<< <i>I do not think there is a rhyme or reason to the "on hold" or "in process" message. I ordered 10-3 pc. silver sets on the 2nd and 1-2 pc. silver/gold set on the 4th. They both showed as being "on hold" for several days. Now the more limited set I ordered on the 4th shows "in process" while the silver sets I ordered on the 2nd are still "on hold". >>
Though the gold/silver may have had a lower mintage, I believe the silver sets are selling faster. Therefore, the silver set is still "on hold" while the gold/silver set is "good to go" - in process. This may be due to more orders to process or they are getting close to selling out of the silver sets.
Mine went from 'on hold" to "in process" as well, I think this is the Mints way of reconciling all orders to see if they are sold out or not..... they see how many fall into the ordered in time catagory and your status changes from hold to process, when the 20,000 or close is hit they are done....do you think?
<< <i>23190 on Sunday 9/4 I'm out of order but I need the practice posting after enjoying this forum all summer. Thanks for all the wisdom you folks share. >>
<< <i>23190 on Sunday 9/4 I'm out of order but I need the practice posting after enjoying this forum all summer. Thanks for all the wisdom you folks share. >>
Something's rotten in Denmark and at the Mint. Are we to believe that the ugly Franklin's with a mintage of 500k sold out faster then the 250k ASE sets with 2 highly desirable coins? I don't believe it. What about the gold/silver set supposedly not sold out with a 30,000 mintage gold coin? I believe they are compiling a waiting list and that a lot of folks will be disappointed.
<< <i>Something's rotten in Denmark and at the Mint. Are we to believe that the ugly Franklin's with a mintage of 500k sold out faster the 250k ASE sets with 2 highly desirable coins? I don't believe it. What about the gold/silver set supposedly not sold out with a 30,000 mintage gold coin? I believe they are compiling a waiting list and that a lot of folks will be disappointed. >>
this could be true, or maybe they haven't received a whole lot of mail yet and those folks will be dissapointed.
I believe the Mint is compiling wait listed orders in excess of the 20K and 250K sets available.
In a quick poll of my friends who were going after the 3 pc gold set - all of them thought it was a no-brainer to buy 10 silvers.
I believe that the first group to buy up the 3 pc golds had to average at least 5-7 sets each.....at least 50K gone immediately. The next 95,000+ orders had to swallow up 200K sets. That's only 2.2 sets per order. Way too low.
We also had another checkpoint (if we believe the mint rep) where the satement was 154K sold - I believe when we had about 65K orders.
So, 55,000 orders (after the initial 10,000) suck up 100,000 sets. About 1.82 sets per order.
At that rate, about 73K sets got sucked up over the next 40K orders. Total about 105K orders and about 223K sets. This is my low estimate.
I think the mint is now sold in excess of $250K sets and will shut it off w/o warning soon.
PS: The Mint has removed the ASE sets from the catalog home page and hidden the 2 coin gold-silver page. Yet they continue to run the disclaimer stating that some sets (plural), "are sold out". Read between the lines.
Actually, in all fairness to the U.S. Mint, they have probably conducted the sale in a fairly decent manner. Especially given the tremendous amount of orders in a short period of time. It's just that WE are really impatient to hear the 'sold out' announcement!
I truely believe the coins have been sold out for awhile, and the Mint just kept the site open to get the extra orders without making another announcement. (that is why they put that 'generic' announcement at the start of the ordering section for the sets... to give the prior notice).
Now they know they have more than enough back up orders also, and thus begins the process of making everything balance..... rejecting duplicate orders, re-assigning sets because of cancellation, etc.
I think the mint might be redistriubuting quantities also. I placed about 10 different orders to make sure I get some of my orders through. Some have been on hold for over a week, while others are in process including my second AGE set which was on the waiting list, No logic when you are dealing with the mint. I suspect they have a huge waiting list on the ASE set and have been sold out for a while now.
From the mint As with all of our products, the United States Mint reserves the right to accept or reject orders in any combination or options it determines to be in its best interest.
My order of the silver set says I ordered it at 12:30 (noon) on the Aug 30 (that's 30 mins after they became available to purchase), that it is in process and that it is backordered with a date of Dec 08 for shipping. I received the email confirmation of the purchase, so I assume I'll be getting what I ordered.
My subscription order for the North Dakota quarters says in process San Francisco Mint commemorative also says in process
Don't forget there is real value to the mint in continuing to collect names for future mailing list. I agree they are likely sold out even if they don't realize it yet. Handling 50,000-100,000 orders is no small feat.
Darn...my wife threw my mailer away yesterday. Hopefully I will get my 10 sets of silver eagles and one 2 coin set that I ordered on the Sept 1st (order is in process).
UNITED STATES NAVY VETERAN 1983 - 2005 Submarines HONOR, COURAGE AND COMMITMENT
Comments
I just occurred to me that you are using the Order Number as a proxy for sales. Remember that ALL items share the same order numbering sequence, so you have to figure a percentage. To do that you have to know the demand curve for the product. I stand by my earlier prediction.
<< <i>I have a thought they won't say they are sold out until after the mailers have been sent out...since I would say that 75% of the collectors don't even know they exist...and if they are sold out before the mailers there will be some ruffled feathers, maybe! >>
I believe that is a certainty. If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't have known about this collection.
Also, if they (all sets) are sold out before the 75% of the collectors get a chance to buy one, it will help drive prices up.
So how many are left?
I ordered 10-3 pc. silver sets on the 2nd and 1-2 pc. silver/gold set on the 4th.
They both showed as being "on hold" for several days.
Now the more limited set I ordered on the 4th shows "in process"
while the silver sets I ordered on the 2nd are still "on hold".
Where's the silver sell out that I thought would have happened by now...?
All three sets will sellout, that's pretty obvious.
<< <i>I have a thought they won't say they are sold out until after the mailers have been sent out... >>
I got my mailer on the sets the day they went on sale.
<< <i>I do not think there is a rhyme or reason to the "on hold" or "in process" message.
I ordered 10-3 pc. silver sets on the 2nd and 1-2 pc. silver/gold set on the 4th.
They both showed as being "on hold" for several days.
Now the more limited set I ordered on the 4th shows "in process"
while the silver sets I ordered on the 2nd are still "on hold". >>
Though the gold/silver may have had a lower mintage, I believe the silver sets are selling faster. Therefore, the silver set is still "on hold" while the gold/silver set is "good to go" - in process. This may be due to more orders to process or they are getting close to selling out of the silver sets.
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
Camelot
23190 on Sunday 9/4
I'm out of order but I need the practice posting after enjoying this forum all summer.
Thanks for all the wisdom you folks share.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
<< <i>23190 on Sunday 9/4
I'm out of order but I need the practice posting after enjoying this forum all summer.
Thanks for all the wisdom you folks share. >>
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
Camelot
<< <i>115,000 orders >>
I think people are ordering the newest State Quarters and "Return to Monticello" . . . . big demand there, ya know.
The sets ordered must have dropped, even from
my conservative estimates. I still think that the
three sets will all do well in time, but people may have to
show a little patience.The acorn doesn't become a
giant oak overnight. That only happened in Jack and the Beanstalk
and it took magic beans.
Camelot
per order then any of us anticipated. rather then 4 or 2.5 sets on average,
the more accurate number seems to be 1.5 sets, and the two piece at 0.14 per order
If we take 117,000 orders as of today that would give us the new approximation of
Three piece Silver set...............................176,000 sets sold out of...................................250 ,000 sets
The Gold/silver two piece set.....................16,485 sets sold out of.......................................20,000 sets
A slower rate then we origonally calculated, but well on the way to sell outs on bothby next week. It seems
that the large orders were only done by a reletively small number of dealers and Forum Members.
Camelot
Thus 118,000 orders made since 8/31/06
Thus the new estimate of 3 piece silver sets sold, using the lowered sets
per order of 1.5 gives us:
Three piece silver sets...............177,000 sets sold out of....................................250,000 after 10 days
If we use the new estimate of 0.14 of gold/silver sets per order, gives us:
Two piece gold/silver mint sets 16,600 sets sold out of.......................................20,000 after 10 days
Camelot
However events seem to indicate that only 1.5 sets per order is the average.
Thus the revamped numbers. I had an error in the earlier two piece totals which
I corrected later. Sorry.
Camelot
<< <i>23190 on Sunday 9/4
I'm out of order but I need the practice posting after enjoying this forum all summer.
Thanks for all the wisdom you folks share. >>
Edited for typo.
<< <i>Something's rotten in Denmark and at the Mint. Are we to believe that the ugly Franklin's with a mintage of 500k sold out faster the 250k ASE sets with 2 highly desirable coins? I don't believe it. What about the gold/silver set supposedly not sold out with a 30,000 mintage gold coin? I believe they are compiling a waiting list and that a lot of folks will be disappointed. >>
this could be true, or maybe they haven't received a whole lot of mail yet and those folks will be dissapointed.
Check my ebay BIN or Make Offers!!
They call me "Pack the Ripper"
I believe the Mint is compiling wait listed orders in excess of the 20K and 250K sets available.
In a quick poll of my friends who were going after the 3 pc gold set - all of them thought it was a no-brainer to buy 10 silvers.
I believe that the first group to buy up the 3 pc golds had to average at least 5-7 sets each.....at least 50K gone immediately. The next 95,000+ orders had to swallow up 200K sets. That's only 2.2 sets per order. Way too low.
We also had another checkpoint (if we believe the mint rep) where the satement was 154K sold - I believe when we had about 65K orders.
So, 55,000 orders (after the initial 10,000) suck up 100,000 sets. About 1.82 sets per order.
At that rate, about 73K sets got sucked up over the next 40K orders. Total about 105K orders and about 223K sets. This is my low estimate.
I think the mint is now sold in excess of $250K sets and will shut it off w/o warning soon.
would just tell us what they are doing. Such honesty would fill
me with confidence in our Mint.
Camelot
Camelot
I truely believe the coins have been sold out for awhile, and the Mint just kept the site open to get the extra orders without making another announcement. (that is why they put that 'generic' announcement at the start of the ordering section for the sets... to give the prior notice).
Now they know they have more than enough back up orders also, and thus begins the process of making everything balance..... rejecting duplicate orders, re-assigning sets because of cancellation, etc.
From the mint
As with all of our products, the United States Mint reserves the right to accept or reject orders in any combination or options it determines to be in its best interest.
Box of 20
My subscription order for the North Dakota quarters says in process
San Francisco Mint commemorative also says in process
<< <i>The next 95,000+ orders had to swallow up 200K sets. That's only 2.2 sets per order. Way too low. >>
Yeah, because the mint isn't selling anything except for these sets. Nobody is buying proof sets, mint sets, state quarters, etc.
1. The Mint is sold out
2. The Mint is not sold out
3. The Mint is near sold out
4. The Mint is not near sold out
5. Even the Mint doesnt know where it's at.
Take your pick
Camelot
<< <i>So we have the following conclusions:
1. The Mint is sold out
2. The Mint is not sold out
3. The Mint is near sold out
4. The Mint is not near sold out
5. Even the Mint doesnt know where it's at.
Take your pick >>
Let see, hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I'd have to pick number
5!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The worst case is they havent sold out and sales will dwindle until the 30 day period is up - and they release the limtis.
I would love for that to happen as I will quickly order at least 50, maybe 100.
This set is a sure thing to rocket to 250-300 in a few months....
I agree they are likely sold out even if they don't realize it yet.
Handling 50,000-100,000 orders is no small feat.
Those will be worth some real money!!!!
I expect a sell out by the end of this week on the 2 piece set.
The 3 piece silver set should sell out by September 29th, possibly a little sooner.
1983 - 2005
Submarines
HONOR, COURAGE AND COMMITMENT