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Doug Winter blog-- are unusual dates irrelevant, and the world is divided between rare coins and wid
Am I reading this blog incorrectly? Although Winter makes reference to "unusual dates", in essence I believe he is saying that there are basically two types of coins-- rare coins and widgets. Although some widgets may be "unusual" or even interesting, the lack of demand for them makes them basically widgets with no redeeming value other than their gold content. If this is the case, then does it not make sense to follow that old saw that states, "it's better to pay slightly more for a slightly rarer date coin, rather than a common date coin of the same series. There is more value in the rarer date." If only the truly rare coins have any potential, what is the point in either buying or collecting any widget/unusual date, or whatever you want to call a coin that is not truly rare? What do you think?
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July 11, 2006
What do you call a gold coin that is too scarce to be regarded as a generic but is not rare enough to be called a rare date? I have always called these grey area gold coins “unusual dates” and was recently asked by a collector if they are a) good deals and b) good investments.
Yes and no.
Let’s use the $10 Liberty Head series as our guide and let’s use the 1901-S eagle as our baseline. The 1901-S is the most common date in this series with a total population of nearly 13,000 graded at PCGS. This coin has a June 2006 Trends value of $500 in AU50, $575 in MS60 and $650 in MS62.
Now let’s randomly choose two “unusual date” $10 Libs. and compare populations and prices.
First, we’ll look at the 1856. This is a No Motto coin that is considered to be relatively common but its total population of 160 graded at PCGS is about 1/80th the number of 1901-S eagles graded. Trends on this coin is $600 in AU50 and $1,100 in AU55 (we won’t compare its price in MS60 to the 1901-S due to a huge difference in rarity between the two dates).
At a $100 premium in AU50, the 1856 seems to be a fantastic deal. And it is. It has a population of just 35 coins in this grade with 74 better at PCGS. But here’s the rub. There are not many collectors of $10 Libs. by date and the collectors who do want an 1856 probably are looking for a coin that’s at least an AU58 to MS61. So the 1856 is essentially an outcast that is unloved by the generic market and unwanted by the rarities market. Hence, its extreme lack of demand and its low price.
Let’s now look at another date, the 1895-S. I’ve always regarded the San Francisco eagles from the 1890’s to be the poster children for the Lost Cause of Unusual Date Gold. PCGS has only recorded 221 in all grades with just seventeen of these better than AU58. Trends for this date is $1,500 in AU58 and $2,500 in MS60. In MS60, this is a date with a PCGS population of just four with a scant nine graded higher. At $2,500 it has to be a total rip, especially with a common date 1901-S valued at $575. Right?
Absolutely. It’s a total rip. In fact, it’s such a fantastic rip that I’ll buy exactly none for my inventory in the next year. Not because I can’t find such a coin; I’m probably going to be offered one or two in the coming few months. No, I’m passing on this coin because I won’t be able to sell it. There’s just nobody that wants a coin like this with the possible exception of a telemarketer who may resell it to an unsuspecting investor. Except the problem is that this telemarketer will want to pay $1,500 for the coin, he’ll take three months to pay and when I get his check it will probably bounce.
Gold coins are expensive and the Liberty Head series go on and on for decade after decade. This is why Philadelphia and San Francisco Liberty Head gold aren’t popular. Who wants to collect an expensive series that is seemingly never ending? And, conversely, this is exactly why Carson City, Charlotte and Dahlonega gold are popular. They are short-lived and, with a few exceptions, don’t contain any daunting, ultra-expensive stoppers which make assembling a set out of the range of most collectors.
So, you still don’t believe me and are still convinced that coins like 1856 eagles in AU50 and 1895-S eagles in MS60 are a great value? Go look at auction prices from five or even ten years ago and see how these coins have done versus “common rare date” coins like EF45 Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles or AU55 Carson City double eagles. Coins like the 1856 eagle and the 1895-S eagle have been among the very worst performers in the single all-time greatest price run-up in numismatic history. Not exactly a very compelling endorsement, eh?
Doug Winter
7/11/06
www.raregoldcoins.com
For more information about United States gold coinage please contact me at dwn@ont.com
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July 11, 2006
What do you call a gold coin that is too scarce to be regarded as a generic but is not rare enough to be called a rare date? I have always called these grey area gold coins “unusual dates” and was recently asked by a collector if they are a) good deals and b) good investments.
Yes and no.
Let’s use the $10 Liberty Head series as our guide and let’s use the 1901-S eagle as our baseline. The 1901-S is the most common date in this series with a total population of nearly 13,000 graded at PCGS. This coin has a June 2006 Trends value of $500 in AU50, $575 in MS60 and $650 in MS62.
Now let’s randomly choose two “unusual date” $10 Libs. and compare populations and prices.
First, we’ll look at the 1856. This is a No Motto coin that is considered to be relatively common but its total population of 160 graded at PCGS is about 1/80th the number of 1901-S eagles graded. Trends on this coin is $600 in AU50 and $1,100 in AU55 (we won’t compare its price in MS60 to the 1901-S due to a huge difference in rarity between the two dates).
At a $100 premium in AU50, the 1856 seems to be a fantastic deal. And it is. It has a population of just 35 coins in this grade with 74 better at PCGS. But here’s the rub. There are not many collectors of $10 Libs. by date and the collectors who do want an 1856 probably are looking for a coin that’s at least an AU58 to MS61. So the 1856 is essentially an outcast that is unloved by the generic market and unwanted by the rarities market. Hence, its extreme lack of demand and its low price.
Let’s now look at another date, the 1895-S. I’ve always regarded the San Francisco eagles from the 1890’s to be the poster children for the Lost Cause of Unusual Date Gold. PCGS has only recorded 221 in all grades with just seventeen of these better than AU58. Trends for this date is $1,500 in AU58 and $2,500 in MS60. In MS60, this is a date with a PCGS population of just four with a scant nine graded higher. At $2,500 it has to be a total rip, especially with a common date 1901-S valued at $575. Right?
Absolutely. It’s a total rip. In fact, it’s such a fantastic rip that I’ll buy exactly none for my inventory in the next year. Not because I can’t find such a coin; I’m probably going to be offered one or two in the coming few months. No, I’m passing on this coin because I won’t be able to sell it. There’s just nobody that wants a coin like this with the possible exception of a telemarketer who may resell it to an unsuspecting investor. Except the problem is that this telemarketer will want to pay $1,500 for the coin, he’ll take three months to pay and when I get his check it will probably bounce.
Gold coins are expensive and the Liberty Head series go on and on for decade after decade. This is why Philadelphia and San Francisco Liberty Head gold aren’t popular. Who wants to collect an expensive series that is seemingly never ending? And, conversely, this is exactly why Carson City, Charlotte and Dahlonega gold are popular. They are short-lived and, with a few exceptions, don’t contain any daunting, ultra-expensive stoppers which make assembling a set out of the range of most collectors.
So, you still don’t believe me and are still convinced that coins like 1856 eagles in AU50 and 1895-S eagles in MS60 are a great value? Go look at auction prices from five or even ten years ago and see how these coins have done versus “common rare date” coins like EF45 Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles or AU55 Carson City double eagles. Coins like the 1856 eagle and the 1895-S eagle have been among the very worst performers in the single all-time greatest price run-up in numismatic history. Not exactly a very compelling endorsement, eh?
Doug Winter
7/11/06
www.raregoldcoins.com
For more information about United States gold coinage please contact me at dwn@ont.com
Always took candy from strangers
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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Comments
Thread on scarce date gold
It also applies to grading as well. Try and get a premium for coins graded VF30 or XF45 when you are SELLING. Yes, there may be a few dealers who pay premiums for such coins, but there aren't many. They want a premium when they are selling to you but won't pay a premium when they are buying.
<< <i>You're really asking "what's the difference between collecting coins and investing in coins?" >>
A little simplistic, but if you reduce it down to the basics there's certainly an element of that in here.
Really, what I take out of it is that "key dates" are not necessarily defined by the number of pieces extant but by the number of pieces extant relative to the number of people chasing that specific piece.
Take something like three-cent nickels. (Let's ignore the proof-only issues for now, though that's not a necessary exclusion for this example.) If you collect business strike three cent nickels, you don't need 1877, 1878 or 1886 (or 1887/6 if you like). But you still need 1884 and 1885, with business strike mintages of 1,700 and 1,000 respectively. And while these had pretty high rates of survival, that would still make it a high four-figure or five-figure rarity in a series which had a lot of date collection pressure on it. Winter's example of the 1856 Eagle is another case in point. There are few people collecting Coronet Eagles by date and mintmark, so there's little demand for this *specific* date. (The difference with Eagles, though, is that there are enough very rare "stoppers" that there is unlikely to be too many date/mint collectors of complete Eagle sets.)
Contrast that to something like some of the Morgans from the mid-1890s, or the 1909-S VDB cent, both of which have orders of magnitude more "survivors" than a business strike 1885 three-cent nickel yet often cost multiples of the much rarer 1885 3CN.
As for the future? No one can say. I'd say that any coin series that doesn't have a huge number of people collecting by date and mint, AND which doesn't have significant "stoppers," has the potential to become more popular in the future as other more traditionally popular series have their keys priced out of reach. In other words, when people who prefer to collect an entire series by date and mintmark are priced out of one series after another, their interest may go somewhere else. We've seen at least a little pop in the prices for the 1872 two-cent piece in recent years, for example. Might this be because collectors realize that they have a chance to *complete* a set of two-centers, and that finally put increased demand on the 1872, which had been historically ridiculously undervalued relative to availability?
If anything changes the fact that much scarcer dates carry a small premium, I think that will be why -- "refugees" from other coin sets that the set builders have decided they can't finish. Until then, the scarcer (but not "rare") dates from less-collected series could be little more than type coins.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I found this to be an interesting read and find myself being drawn to my keyboard (actually I'm already at it) to start writing a similar piece on colonials. >>
Cool! Looking forward to it!
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>Every dog has his day >>
every dog?
<< <i>There’s just nobody that wants a coin like this with the possible exception of a telemarketer who may resell it to an unsuspecting investor. Except the problem is that this telemarketer will want to pay $1,500 for the coin, he’ll take three months to pay and when I get his check it will probably bounce. >>
right on
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
When I was a rookie gold coin collector, I went through the same thought process: be a contrarian, buy interesting dates before others discover them, etc. I bought some "unusual date gold" (what I call "gold coin no man's land") until I realized that no one cared. Even in the environment of a rising gold market, these coins were tough to get out of. Strategies that work great in the stock market and in traditional investments do not necessarily translate into the much more thinly-traded and capricious coin market. One of the great "dividends" of coin collecting are the friends you make along the way. The fellowship of southern gold collectors is terrific, and it enhances the collecting experience. If I were collecting late 19th century SF eagles, it would be a lonely pursuit.
As I said in the other thread, if you are fascinated by the price inefficiencies and thrilled by the relative scarcity of these coins, by all means collect them. Maybe even write an article about them. However, do not be surprised if your investment results do not live up to your expectations.
<< <i>bidask,
When I was a rookie gold coin collector, I went through the same thought process: be a contrarian, buy interesting dates before others discover them, etc. I bought some "unusual date gold" (what I call "gold coin no man's land") until I realized that no one cared. Even in the environment of a rising gold market, these coins were tough to get out of. Strategies that work great in the stock market and in traditional investments do not necessarily translate into the much more thinly-traded and capricious coin market. One of the great "dividends" of coin collecting are the friends you make along the way. The fellowship of southern gold collectors is terrific, and it enhances the collecting experience. If I were collecting late 19th century SF eagles, it would be a lonely pursuit.
As I said in the other thread, if you are fascinated by the price inefficiencies and thrilled by the relative scarcity of these coins, by all means collect them. Maybe even write an article about them. However, do not be surprised if your investment results do not live up to your expectations. >>
I appreciate your comments. Especially your comment on the great "dividends" of coin collecting. I guess you could say that collecting scarce and rare coins that are not in demand is by definition a lonely pursuit. But, I do not buy Doug's argument of the Philly and S mint issues. I like the C, CC, D and O mint too! I also do not buy the argument of not collecting because of "stoppers". I have no intention on writing a book!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
And if you think I'm being too harsh, take a look at a few major auctions. You'll catch on real quick.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I don't think a lack of demand makes a coin a widget.
Agree!!! Actually, the coins most in demand are widgets (Morgans, Saints, Lincolns, state quarters, gold buffalos, etc.).
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>I can't argue with DW's logic but he's only describing the secondary root of the problem. The more important reason "unusual dates" don't sell is that the coins are typically overgraded (by the standards to which sophisticated collectors tend to grade), over-doctored (in the broad sense of the word) and (most importantly) just plain ugly. Who's going to buy a coin like that unless he absolutely needs it?
And if you think I'm being too harsh, take a look at a few major auctions. You'll catch on real quick. >>
Totally agree about overdoctered, overgraded and plain ugly. I'd stay away from ANY coin like that. Are you also saying that there are lots of those kind of coins among gold offerings in auctions?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Yes, of course.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Are you also saying that there are lots of those kind of coins among gold offerings in auctions?
Yes, of course. >>
I know that many of these coins are slabbed. I also know they can be overgraded. Do you also believe a coin that has been doctored makes it way into a slab at auction on a regular basis?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
The quality of the coins offered seemed mostly acceptable. There was a nice ANACS 55 (that I thought was nicer than some of the NGC 58s) that went for below average 55 money. That's the kind of coin I might be more inclined to pick up.
Yes, although the degree to which that happens depends on how broadly you define "doctored".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
And if you frequently encountered coins like this, you might end up collecting the series. But that will never happen.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Do you also believe a coin that has been doctored makes it way into a slab at auction on a regular basis?
Yes, although the degree to which that happens depends on how broadly you define "doctored". >>
Interesting!.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>I just ran a search on Heritage's auction site on 1895-S eagles. Most of them where in the 53-58 range. The 58s were going for about $1500. The 55s for about $1100. The 53s for about $800. That's a little more than I'd want to pay for an eagle unless I wanted that particular date. Why would I want that particular date?
The quality of the coins offered seemed mostly acceptable. There was a nice ANACS 55 (that I thought was nicer than some of the NGC 58s) that went for below average 55 money. That's the kind of coin I might be more inclined to pick up. >>
I think you are addressing the demand question here. I am not sure why anybody would want that date either but regardless the price seems reasonable (value) and if your finding coins like the ANACS 55 you described then even better value!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Go through a box of gold coin lots in the next Heritage sale, and you will see enough doctoring to earn a degree.
<< <i>You keep talking about "value," bidask. What is this "value" of which you speak?
I think the 1895s offers value as quoted. The ANACS 55 you mentioned certainly seems too. That doesn't mean I want to buy that coin now because there are alot of other values in this series that offer better value and no I am not trying to put a set together either.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Do you also believe a coin that has been doctored makes it way into a slab at auction on a regular basis?
Go through a box of gold coin lots in the next Heritage sale, and you will see enough doctoring to earn a degree. >>
How do you think they made their way into TGP slabs?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Someone delicately places the coin in the insert and then seals the coin with insert between two plastic plates. How else?
Now you understand why the 1895-S might sit in a dealer's stock for a while waiting for the right buyer.
<< <i>How do you think they made their way into TGP slabs?
Someone delicately places the coin in the insert and then seals the coin with insert between two plastic plates. How else? >>
When was the last time you went thru a box of slabbed gold coins at auction? Also, why do you think the graders didn't just send them back as altered?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>Well, I think given the choice between a New Orleans eagle from the 1890s and an 1895-S at current market, I'll take the New Orleans piece at a few bucks more than a Philadelphia coin. There! I've got my interesting coin--CHEAP! And if I want an 1890s San Francisco issue, maybe I'll get an 1893-S.
Now you understand why the 1895-S might sit in a dealer's stock for a while waiting for the right buyer.
I agree, like I said, there is probably quite a bit of value in the LIB series!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
1. April in Atlanta, but I am going to view auction lots this week.
2. Market acceptable, graders make mistakes, graders do not spend enough time with the coins, graders get fooled. or some combination of all of these.
<< <i>When was the last time you went thru a box of slabbed gold coins at auction? Also, why do you think the graders didn't just send them back as altered?
1. April in Atlanta, but I am going to view auction lots this week.
2. Market acceptable, graders make mistakes, graders do not spend enough time with the coins, graders get fooled. or some combination of all of these. >>
I will be curious to know what your thoughts are relative to "doctored" on the gold coins you view at aucion this week!
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
But, in response to your question: If only the truly rare coins have any potential, what is the point in either buying or collecting any widget/unusual date, or whatever you want to call a coin that is not truly rare? What do you think?
Frankly, this is not a question that any collector (of anything - coins, stamps, paperweights, adding machines, you name it) would ever ask.
It's a question that an investor might ask; it's a question that a dealer must ask, but if you have to ask "what is the point of buying. . .", then you're not a collector.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
Unless Gold drops to really cheap numbers a large collection of Eagles is not feasible for most collectors simply because of the amount of raw gold involved.....
I would like to get a no motto Eagle for my type set, my current choice would be a 1854-S for reasons I don't think need mentioning.....
This entire thread or the original note from DW does not surprise me in the least.....
<< <i>I don't understand the excitement that Doug's blog has caused - he's only confirming the advice we've frequently given on this board - to bidask, fc and many others.
But, in response to your question: If only the truly rare coins have any potential, what is the point in either buying or collecting any widget/unusual date, or whatever you want to call a coin that is not truly rare? What do you think?
Frankly, this is not a question that any collector (of anything - coins, stamps, paperweights, adding machines, you name it) would ever ask.
It's a question that an investor might ask; it's a question that a dealer must ask, but if you have to ask "what is the point of buying. . .", then you're not a collector.
Dave, I don't think the line between collector and investor, or the questions that should or may be asked, is as clear as you are making it out to be.
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't understand the excitement that Doug's blog has caused - he's only confirming the advice we've frequently given on this board - to bidask, fc and many others.
But, in response to your question: If only the truly rare coins have any potential, what is the point in either buying or collecting any widget/unusual date, or whatever you want to call a coin that is not truly rare? What do you think?
Frankly, this is not a question that any collector (of anything - coins, stamps, paperweights, adding machines, you name it) would ever ask.
It's a question that an investor might ask; it's a question that a dealer must ask, but if you have to ask "what is the point of buying. . .", then you're not a collector.
Dave, I don't think the line between collector and investor, or the questions that should or may be asked, is as clear as you are making it out to be.
I agree.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't understand the excitement that Doug's blog has caused - he's only confirming the advice we've frequently given on this board - to bidask, fc and many others.
But, in response to your question: If only the truly rare coins have any potential, what is the point in either buying or collecting any widget/unusual date, or whatever you want to call a coin that is not truly rare? What do you think?
Frankly, this is not a question that any collector (of anything - coins, stamps, paperweights, adding machines, you name it) would ever ask.
It's a question that an investor might ask; it's a question that a dealer must ask, but if you have to ask "what is the point of buying. . .", then you're not a collector.
Dave, I don't think the line between collector and investor, or the questions that should or may be asked, is as clear as you are making it out to be.
I agree.
If one is buying a coin with a view to the future, one wants to do a little better than break even. Therefore, it seems to me that one would want to avoid higher priced "better dates" that have no active market beyond the buyers of common dates. Most of us envision our coins being sold at some time in the future. Either we'll sell them, or our heirs will sell them. We'd just as soon we realize full "value" for the coins. Those better-date coins will be harder to liquidate at a profit if we pay much more than common date prices.
In short, semi-key $10 Libs sound like a "hard sell" to me.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I don't understand the excitement that Doug's blog has caused - he's only confirming the advice we've frequently given on this board - to bidask, fc and many others.
But, in response to your question: If only the truly rare coins have any potential, what is the point in either buying or collecting any widget/unusual date, or whatever you want to call a coin that is not truly rare? What do you think?
Frankly, this is not a question that any collector (of anything - coins, stamps, paperweights, adding machines, you name it) would ever ask.
It's a question that an investor might ask; it's a question that a dealer must ask, but if you have to ask "what is the point of buying. . .", then you're not a collector.
Dave, I don't think the line between collector and investor, or the questions that should or may be asked, is as clear as you are making it out to be.
I agree.
If one is buying a coin with a view to the future, one wants to do a little better than break even. Therefore, it seems to me that one would want to avoid higher priced "better dates" that have no active market beyond the buyers of common dates. Most of us envision our coins being sold at some time in the future. Either we'll sell them, or our heirs will sell them. We'd just as soon we realize full "value" for the coins. Those better-date coins will be harder to liquidate at a profit if we pay much more than common date prices.
In short, semi-key $10 Libs sound like a "hard sell" to me. >>
What area of the market to you think offers value/collectability and that you think you can do a little better than breakeven ?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>[In short, semi-key $10 Libs sound like a "hard sell" to me. >>
I agree.
To me, the true "keys" -- the rare and very scarce dates rarely seen -- will ALWAYS get a strong premium regardless of series, as will key and semi-key dates in very popular series like small cents and Morgans. But semi-keys in sleepy series (especially series where a "complete set" is almost impossible) are not likely to become much more than type coins in the market.
Well said.
But if you or anyone enjoys the pursuit of "no man's land" gold coins for fun and sport, I think it is a healthy pursuit with little downside.
But the premise of this thread, the concern that "unusual dates" are somehow not worth buying, and are nothing more than "widgets," betrays the perspective of an investor. For Heaven's sake, don't buy coins to invest in them. Only spend money on coins that you can afford to throw away. Try not to LOSE money by overpaying and buying unwisely. But buy the coins because you love the pursuit, you love the history, you love the hobby ... NOT because of their alleged inherent value to investors. Then you will not be worrying about whether these REALLY COOL "unusual dates" are widgets.
Best,
Sunnywood
Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
Check out the Southern Gold Society
Sunnywood rocks™.