Coin Prices - who-how-what-why-where & when
dingodog
Posts: 273 ✭
Anyone interested in discussing how the price of coins is set? I've bought coins from several of the large dealers that publish price lists and/or catalogues, and even when buying only one coin I don't believe I've ever paid the listed price. I've not asked for a discount, nor argued the price, nor even hinted that I would even buy a second coin. With no names mentioned I was once shy one coin that would have put me at the top of the registry. The population was seven and one came up on eBay. The guy I was competing with and that also needed that coin called me when he saw I had bid on it. "How much are you going to pay? There's no point in our beating each other's brains out - tell me your max and if it's more than I'm willing to go, you can have it!" I told him I'd pay $500 and he replied "take it!". So I set my reserve bid to $500 and assumed that at least I wouldn't have to compete with him. He sniped me at $510 (or what-ever - the next higher increment). So much for our "gentleman's agreement". Anyhow, several days later I was poking around another dealer's web and same coin, same grade pops up at $300. I immediately called and asked the dealer if he had such a coin. He came back in a few minutes and said, "Yeah, I'll take $250 for it". I stammered and he said, "OK, $195.00". That was an MS67. Several days later I noticed that MS68's were on the market. I'm afraid to look now, maybe there are even MS71's of 72's!
What is a price list anyhow? Anyone ever pay Gray Sheet price? Or sell at Gray Sheet price? The 2007 Red Book came out, when, March or April of this year (2006)?
What is a price list anyhow? Anyone ever pay Gray Sheet price? Or sell at Gray Sheet price? The 2007 Red Book came out, when, March or April of this year (2006)?
U.S. coin collector since 1943. Have tried desperatly to keep every coin that has come to hand, but unfortunately, some got away.
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Comments
Coin prices, CDN, redbook etc prices are all over the place depending on the series. Some are high for some, and very low for others. Some even about right. You have to now where the current market for each series and more importantly the specific coin / and grade in that series is, and the best way is to research auction prices, listing prices from various sources such as dealer site's, CCU forum, publications, coin world dealer adds etc. Also, the quality of the coin is just as important for the price being asked. Also, rarity/scarcity places a big part as well.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Thanks for your comments. Yes, I was an idiot for telling the guy but we knew each other and I didn't want to believe that he would pull a stunt like that. Live an learn (again, and again, and again).
I have a dream - coin prices like stock market prices on the web. I know stock isn't graded like coins but it is graded. We have the technology, the communications, the ability. The coin "industry" is big enough to warrent it (according to a very highly respected person in the industry that is in a position to know - he says is is $160 billion/year). The reason I would like to see it is that such a facility properly done could bring a whole lot of new collectors into the field, that would increase demand, as coins get soaked up by new collectors they become rare, more expensive, and collectors get rich(er?).
It makes sense to me. To me the coin industry operates at a 12th century model of commerce. The only difference is that modern day "tinkers" load their goods on an airplane instead of a mule.
Jan
Yes, those are good sources. Kind of any how. Fun to use, right? You can search them for hours to try and come up with a price for a coin then what do you do with it. The references you use were appropriate for live or on-line auctions - how many "shills" were in the audiance? Whoops! Pardon me! Poor choice of words - maybe the guy that's bidding the price up on the item doesn't have a clue as to what he is doing, or why. Maybe he's bidding for Bill Gates (high), or me (very, very low). When the auction is done that sets the price for that specific item, in those specific circumstances, at that specific time. By the way, if the coin is real rare, who will bid on it? Or if you're trying to find the price of a lower grade that you happen to have fifty of and want to sell, how does that work? My point is that we have the technology to do a much better job than we're doing. Who wants to do it? Who can do it?
The thing about a national price listing for coins is that several coins of the same date, grade and mintmark are probably not created equal. Many dealers have several coins of the same grade, date, mm listed and often for different prices. Some make NO distinction between NGC or PCGS; they charge the same for both. They can look totally different and what appeals to one person may not trip someone else's trigger. One share of Microsoft is pretty much like any other.
I'm morally against "sniping". I see that as being akin to being a sniper in the military -- we need them, they are very useful and productive but it is to "sneaky" for my tastes. I'd like to go back to jousting and actually had the chance at ChuChi. This young chap in a nice green uniform charged me with a bayonet, I retalliated with a .380 and we both came out of it with honor intact. I got to spend some nice R&R at Tripler Gen. Hosp in Hawaii and he was received with honors at Valhalla. But "sniping" on coins is sort of dirty in my books - it you want it, say so - let 'em come - kind of "John Wayne" style but that's the way it otta be!
Your observation on grading is right on! The problem is that we accept grading companies with their "3 second specials" and they just use their eyeballs with no compensation for the pain and suffering in their life on that specific day. Guess I'm trying to say that human judgement and even eyesight is inconsistent and poor. We should use hawks but then we'd have to jiggle the coin back and forth for them to make a judgement. In addition to the mice and bugs, we'd have to pay the jiggler so the price would go up. Why not use a computer to grade coins? Computers grade silicon wafer (a trace is infinitely smaller than anything on a coin) and the good thing about computers is you don't feed them, they don't fight with their wives (yet), and they are consistently repeatably accurate. Eye appeal and all the other excuses are also quantifiable. My guess is that it would cost about half to 3/4 million to develope, less than $1,000 to produce and could sell at $1,999.95 with a .99999 repeatability.
Would we be de-hobby-ifying the hobby or would we force a bunch of grading companies to come up with another avocation. What is coin collecting anyhow? I've been a collector since 1943 and when I started, everything come out of circulation. That was fun! I had a paper route and you can't imagine the stuff I got when I collected! Morgan Dollars - bad! They were too heavy in the pocket if you were still delivering your bag of papers and collecting on the way. Fido's - neat but if they were over a quarter, the 25 cents was more important and we'd pass those on pronto!
99.9% of collectors are quite simply not "gentlemen" when it comes to collecting as far as most other collectors are converned if in competition for something.
A collector collects for the sake of collecting.
Investors are something else: they collect to make money quickly.
So if a collector "wants", "needs" or "has to have" a coin, stamp or whatever else the only limit will be what he is willing to spend (only to call oneself stupid for not having bid more if outbid by $10 even if a ridiculous limit had been posed).
Expecting somebody to renounce to a "desiderata" because of a gentleman's agreement is being very very very trusting.
Collectors have to be gentlemen with dealers because a good reputation allows for "on approval items", credit on purchases, trades, etc.
BAJJERFAN was right when he suggested not to show interest and bid at the end of the auction. That's the only way to have some reasonable hope to win a highly contended coin.
Less competitive items can be handled differently. A Registry Set item is always subject to contention and volatility. And you discovered that yourself when you acquired the same coin for less after a short while through a different source.
Rest assured we have all experienced similar disappointments on EBay. Some time back I stupidly waited 2 days to bid on a coin (that had Buy it Now) I had been seeking for more than a year. When I finally went to that page to buy, the coin had already been sold. It took six months to find an equivalent one and I experienced numerous lost opportunities in between.
I try to apply this golden rule: "if you see it and the price is right, buy it and don't wait"
I don't always do it though.
Collecting since the 1980's
Morgan Dollars Circ. Strikes
- Basic Set - Varieties - Prooflike Basic Set - Date Set
- Carson City - Early S Mint Short Set - Mintmark Type Set
Morgan Dollars Proof
- Basic Set - Varieties
Peace Circ.
<< <i>What is a price list anyhow? Anyone ever pay Gray Sheet price? Or sell at Gray Sheet price? The 2007 Red Book came out, when, March or April of this year (2006)? >>
Really there just ain't no such thing. Coins are not like a used car where there is at least an idea of cost. There are price guides all over the place, one here on the PCGS web site. None really agree. The 2007 Red Book coming out so early in 2006 is a massive joke. Prices in that book are now useless. At coin shows I go to so many dealers pull out the grey sheet and then just guess what to charge you. This price is pending if they know you, you know them, you look poor, you look rich, what time of the day it is, clear or cloudy sky, is your nose running, you wear white sox, you brought your family with you, you are carrying a gun, your wearing leather, your mouth was hanging open when you saw that coin, etc., etc., etc.
price lists can only be a starting point for a coin such as a 1797 half dime with fine details, a small hole, and attractive original toning. the "market value" of such a piece changes with the circumstances... the circumstances of it's history, where and when it's offered, and the audience to whom it is offered.
for coins that they're still "making more of " such as modern coins that are "certified" in high grade...
price lists can be obsolete right off the printing press. As you have so aptly demonstrated.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
You've got it right! Kind of a pathetic situation isn't it?
Now go to the NYSE and buy a few hundred shares of IBM - same situation? I think not! The coin "industry" is massive and a lot of people are getting very rich. It is supposed to be a hobby but it is BIG BUSINESS. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining that a person or an industry can make money buying and selling coins - that's great as far as I'm concerned. But why do we put up with all the "professional" foolishness like you've pointed out. Wouldn't it be great if prices (and dealers MMMmmmmMMMMMmmmmmMMM!) were honest and reliable?
Right on, Carl!
Did you see the comments on potential computer grading. The state of the art is so that all the things you mention could definitely be taken into consideration, even "off-coin" intangibles like "Pedigree". Why should we not have a computer system that can do that. To the human eye a human hair is just about invisible (by itself, that is). A computer can slice and dice it perhaps a million times. Think that is small? How big is the memory bit on a one gigabit memory chip? I haven't bothered to work this out but I'd be willing to bet that the world combined has not yet issued a gigabit of coins. We have the technology, the ability, and apparently some of us have the desire so what are we waiting for? Besides, the specific case you sited is not all that common (unless you're selling).
(Couldn't resist ) O.K., let's work it out. I'm refering to a rather large chip, a "Compact Memory" which measures approximately 1.25x1.5" or 1.875 sq in. O.D. I don't want to rip one apart so let's assume the actual chip area is .5 sq. in. (most of the guts is wires and connectors). If a computer can be affected by one bit, all we have to do is W.A.G. how big a bit on this memory chip. A gigabit is one billion bytes, a byte is 8 bits so we divide .5 inch by 8,000,000,000 bits and we get one bit is .000,000,006,250 sq. inch. A nick on a coin is a few million times larger. If we can "grade" etched silicon wafer, grading coins is chump change.
You make good point Baley, hope you don't mind my foolishness but I am confident there is a better way than the 12th century model we currently follow.
Happy Fathers Day!
Jan
at that point we'll have a good model for accurate and consistant pricing of collectibles
until then, markets for unique coins, as well as antiques, art, and other high end possesions will remain dynamic and subject to arbitrage and right/wrong time and place circumstances.
As I said, I agree with you 100% that modern proofs, generic mint state coins in normal color, and even to a certain extent older type coins, can be graded and priced more uniformly than they are now.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
at that point we'll have a good model for accurate and consistant pricing of collectibles
until then, markets for unique coins, as well as antiques, art, and other high end possesions will remain dynamic and subject to arbitrage and right/wrong time and place circumstances.
As I said, I agree with you 100% that modern proofs, generic mint state coins in normal color, and even to a certain extent older type coins, can be graded and priced more uniformly than they are now.
but i could show you pictures of dozens of my favorite kinds of coins, and any poll you'd care to take on this informed board as to the special coins' "value" would be all over the map, ranging from, "I wouldn't want it at any price" to "name your price!" and that's just the way it is... you can't regulate "taste"
one example: what's this coin worth?
Hi Baley,
Ok, the answere is "now". You've surely heard of eharmony, that one example of a computer program that can measure "buyer emotion". It's called "predictive analytics" and it is well tested and accepted in a wide range of disciplines. Been thru an airport lately? Or used the telephone? Humans are quite as unique and special as we used to like to think. Think it's hokum? eHarmony has over 11 million registered users.
Emotion doesn't even need to factor into building a "good model for accurate and consistant pricing of collectibles". It doesn't now, does it? Market demand, however does. True, the demand can be manipulated, or based on lies or all sorts of falsehoods but that also has nothing to do with building a "good model for accurate and consistant pricing of collectibles". History and data does, what did that specific coin sell for previously, what do like coins sell for, what is the state of the economy, of the war, of the consumer confidence index, and so on but it doesn't need to be anywhere near that complex. Suppose there were a well defined cataloguing system that could identify a coin by a comprehensive list of features, attributes, history, and detail, even to a specific coin if necessary (like your holed dollar). And also suppose there were a computer network that captured a significant part of all the buy/sell transactions of a large part of coins being bought and sold every day for a period of time. Do you think if 125 coin similar in specs sold over a one year period that there would be some basis for predicting what the price of the next sale might be? The longer the data is captured, the more accurate the prediction, right? You don't know what price one common share of IBM will go for tomorrow but you can easily find out what they were going for yesterday. You have confidence in the price of the shares being sold on the various markets because of what? Computer software! I'm asking why not? There could (should?) be only one criteria for the answer to that question - "would it be good for coin collecting?" instead of "Would it be good for this particular company or that particular grader?"
It is even easy to eliminate that last little bit of confusion, or as you say "taste" the same way that the NYSE and other exchanges have resolved it, with "market makers". We would still have the specialists and the experts, and the error and variety gurus and they would have their input and impact on the prices. We don't start from a vacuum - there are already established prices for a large body of coins and there is a great deal of data to substantiate those prices. I'm not suggesting we throw that away and start over - I suggesting we use it all but that we use computers to track and compute and predict.
The important thing is how can we use every tool and technology at out disposal to increase and improve coin collecting.
<< <i>The guy I was competing with and that also needed that coin called me when he saw I had bid on it. "How much are you going to pay? There's no point in our beating each other's brains out - tell me your max and if it's more than I'm willing to go, you can have it!" I told him I'd pay $500 and he replied "take it!". So I set my reserve bid to $500 and assumed that at least I wouldn't have to compete with him. He sniped me at $510. >>
The guy is a lowlife. Is he a forum member?
<< <i>Anyhow, several days later I was poking around another dealer's web and same coin, same grade pops up at $300. I immediately called and asked the dealer if he had such a coin. He came back in a few minutes and said, "Yeah, I'll take $250 for it". >>
At least karma took care of it for you.
<< <i>I'm morally against "sniping". I see that as being akin to being a sniper in the military >>
Now you're just being silly.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Hi JD,
Thanks for your comments. Yes, I was an idiot for telling the guy but we knew each other and I didn't want to believe that he would pull a stunt like that. Live an learn (again, and again, and again).
I have a dream - coin prices like stock market prices on the web. I know stock isn't graded like coins but it is graded. We have the technology, the communications, the ability. The coin "industry" is big enough to warrent it (according to a very highly respected person in the industry that is in a position to know - he says is is $160 billion/year). The reason I would like to see it is that such a facility properly done could bring a whole lot of new collectors into the field, that would increase demand, as coins get soaked up by new collectors they become rare, more expensive, and collectors get rich(er?).
It makes sense to me. To me the coin industry operates at a 12th century model of commerce. The only difference is that modern day "tinkers" load their goods on an airplane instead of a mule.
Jan >>
Poof! Your dream has come true. The price realized by every TT coin sold, minutes after the sale. The price realized for every Heritage lot as you watch the end of the auction. Those two sources alone cover quite a bit of ground. Couple that with archives of sales only days old, up to years old from which you can chart and see trhe trends, and what you desire has always been available.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>
<< <i>Hi JD,
Poof! Your dream has come true. The price realized by every TT coin sold, minutes after the sale. The price realized for every Heritage lot as you watch the end of the auction. Those two sources alone cover quite a bit of ground. Couple that with archives of sales only days old, up to years old from which you can chart and see trhe trends, and what you desire has always been available. >>
Thanks for the response Pharmer but I've got to ask you. How long does take to copy down (screen scrape) TT's prices realized, or Heritage's auction reports? You do that every day? I would have to guess that you are a very busy man! Besides, is there some break point as to where the on-line auctions (or house auctions) will accept a coin? What do you do for the coins that are of lessor value -- ignore them? Are you telling me that if there were a reliable price list available that covered all U.S. coins since 1616 including errors and varieties, in all grades, attributes, pedigrees, grading companies etc., that was updated monthly, and that if you questioned any price on the list you could get a reference as to whom would sell you the coin at that price, or that would buy the coin from you at the listed wholesale price, that such a facility would be of no use to you? Surely you're not saying that you'd rather do the searching, capturing, factoring, combining, analysizing, and on and on just to get a reliable price list? If you have that ability, and that skill, and that will (which I am not doubting) do you have enough hours in the day? I'm not talking about finding the price on two or three coins that you might be interested in buying or selling - I'm talking about all U.S. coins. Finding a price range to begin negotiations on a few specific coins with another dealer is one thing, but don't you think that having a reliable, timely, accurate, comprehensive price list of all U.S. coins would be good for the coin collecting (and buying/selling) community in general?
Rgds
Jan
<< <i>Are you telling me that if there were a reliable price list available that covered all U.S. coins since 1616 including errors and varieties, in all grades, attributes, pedigrees, grading companies etc., that was updated monthly, and that if you questioned any price on the list you could get a reference as to whom would sell you the coin at that price, or that would buy the coin from you at the listed wholesale price, that such a facility would be of no use to you? Surely you're not saying that you'd rather do the searching, capturing, factoring, combining, analysizing, and on and on just to get a reliable price list? If you have that ability, and that skill, and that will (which I am not doubting) do you have enough hours in the day? I'm not talking about finding the price on two or three coins that you might be interested in buying or selling - I'm talking about all U.S. coins. Finding a price range to begin negotiations on a few specific coins with another dealer is one thing, but don't you think that having a reliable, timely, accurate, comprehensive price list of all U.S. coins would be good for the coin collecting (and buying/selling) community in general?
Rgds
Jan >>
I am not Pharmer (luckily for him) but that is exactly what I would tell you. No, such a list would not be of any use to me. It would possibly be of some use to general dealers and of great use to investors. To the collector it would serve absolutely no purpose other than to raise prices even more than they have already been inflated. Prices do (and they should!)vary according to the exact conditions of a particular sale. Anything different and a person might as well BE buying that IBM stock. While, personally, I have nothing against IBM stock--I currently own a small amount--I am not interested in collecting it. I am, however, interested in collecting individual coins rather than a number on a tickertape.
passing year. Forty years ago a collector needed a '14-D cent and the big question was if he
wanted it new or used. He might pass on specific examp;es because there was a specific attri-
bute he didn't like but there weren't 30 different grades which still fail to describe a coin or its
condition. Rather than work on developing the necessary basis to make coins more interchange-
able and place them on continua of value we've instead opted to just have them priced at some
point in time. Today a coin may be worth MS-65 but as the market and tastes change it might be
worth more or less. If coins were actually graded then mathmatical formulae could be applied to
them in a variety of ways.
Another big problem is that while the emotional responses of buyers can be taken into account or
factored out over a large enough population it's less easy to factor out extraneous variables such
as the state of a market segment or the desire of some to supress or elevate prices. Some volatility
isn't so much a change in markets as changes in perception of the market.
Some coins have a deep and stable demand. A coin like an MS-60 large cent with nice surfaces will
have many more interested if the price drifts a little lower and more come on the market if it goes up.
Changes in price require structural change in demand which is usually from collectors. Other coins
like a gem 1982-P quarter have a very thin demand and a somewhat less stable supply. A small de-
crease in price would have no discernable effect on demand and a huge increase in supply would have
little effect on price (at least in the short term).
While grading could be "nailed down" for most coins and, in time, pricing could be made to closely
resemble the current market based on these grades, this is not what most collectors desire. Most
collectors just want to be able to consult a guide and see what the current price is based upon what
it was worth when it was graded. Even if grading, demand, supply, and emotions could all be quant-
ified it is likely that pricing would still be ephemeral. Most coins might trade right at the guide price
but the guides would often change prices dramatically.
I understand that you say that such a list (knowledge) would be of no use to you. Fine. That is your choice. But suppose such a list brought thousands, hundreds of thousands of new collectors into the fold. Would it still be of no use? You have the option to buy IBM stock right now. You even own some, but you still own coins, Are you interested in acquiring a coin and selling it at a profit? I'm willing to bet that you are, and there is nothing wrong with that. Why then is there anything wrong with bringing hundreds of thousands new collectors into the field? It will put upward pressure on prices for sure, but your collection would be worth more. Would that cause distress? People collected coins in the twelfth century - they collect them today. Those were simpler times and they did not have the means to create or maintain such a price list. We do today. The bottom line is that we must bring new collectors into the field else the hobby will die. The younger generation is now computer based. If you don't believe that, try getting change for a quarter at your local grocery store. Computers (sophisticated price lists require sophisticated tools, ergo computers and databases) have improved virtually every enterprise in the world save coin collecting. Why resist the inevitable--it is futile. Prepare to be assimilated. Oh, yes. And if your "coin portfolio" grossly outperforms your IBM portfolio will you just buy more IBM?
Does it matter if collector coins are not fungible? I’m not aware of anyone depositing their ’14-D’s with a trust, then expecting to get an identical (but different) ’14-D back – does anyone do that? Certified coins are unique. There might be a box of 30 1893-S PCGS MS65 DCAMs Morgans but each one of them will have a different serial number. They don’t need to be fungible in my humble opinion, but that is not to say that a price list like we are discussing would not be of use. If it only eliminated the FUD factor for collectors and brought new blood into the industry it will have achieved the grand stroke. Remember, if you will, that an accurate .99999 repeatable computer grading system was postulated in this discussion. That utility might recognize every one of those 30 1893-S Morgan’s as distinct. I agree with you that mathematics would definitely be applied. (When I was a small child on my grandfather’s knee, he told me that “database” as it existed in computers was the first actual practical application of mathematics – or something like that). We agree that coins are not fungible, and that fungibility in coins does not matter?
I don’t disagree with your comments in your second paragraph. Do you agree that if such a price list brought hundreds of thousands of new collectors into the fold that it would be a good thing and that factor alone would put strong upward pressure on values and prices. Tastes are another thing, but with a growing population of coin enthusiasts we are insured of a deep and growing demand for all coins. If .2% of the coin collecting population likes IHCs with holes in them, .2% of fifty million surely must be more than say .2% of 5 million. Again, good for the hobby (and the dealers, and the investors that used to put their money into IBM stock but now put it into coins because the apr is infinitely better).
I am obviously very confused at to what most collectors want. I think most collectors are also confused. Can it be because the most critical component of the hobby; that is “prices”, is black magic. Why does it seem to always and only work against the collector. The poor guy is the perpetual sap. His MS65 3 ½ Legged Buffalo unfortunately lacks “eye appeal” or is over graded, or cleaned or blah blah blah. Re-enter the computer grading system to say with .99999 consistency that said coin is “XYZ” and the price list that says “XYZ” has a “market retail” price of “Y” dollars, and so-and-so sold one yesterday at that price and so-and-so-on will buy it at that price. Does that take the “thrill” out of collecting or make it less desirable to anyone? And would most collectors want to consult just any guide or would they appreciate the accurate, up-to-date, verifiable, easy-to-use guide that they knew they could rely on?
The price of IBM at any specific time is not subject to question. Has that hurt the sale of IBM or any other stock? I am not suggesting that this price list we are discussing change the price – I would have it accurately report it. The coin price list would be compiled in real time from thousands of real-time transactions. As experience is gained the wild hares in the fold would be weighted. That would seem to me to produce a much more stable price list that the current methods. With grading, demand, supply and emotions all quantified, said price list would be the antithesis of ephemeral. Most likely as all those things fall into place predictive neural Bayesian analytics would tell you what price your “Speared Buffalo” will by at 4:00PM Wednesday July 29th, 2017. And why not?
Jan
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
eventually. I'd also like to see price lists which are flexible enough to use for the nearly
unique grades that coins would have. There's great question in my mind that such a system
would have any predictive value since there are too many unpredictable and chaotic compon-
ents to future events. I'm also uncertain that this would be a great draw to new participants
in the hobby.
While there would be obvious advantages like being able to visualize a coin by its grade and
more subtle advantages like making coins comparable for various purposes, it's unlikely it will
be a panacea. It will be resisted by most hobbyists simply because it is a change. It will also be
resisted because most people are more concerned with what the coin is worth than most any-
thing else and like the idea of being able to just look it up. Obviously it's not so simple as just
looking them up in most cases but still we have the price guides.
Many of the benefits of "computer" grading are probably unforeseeable
The coin market is very thin & small (not counting the change state quarter crowd). I can't believe the 160 billion USD figure, maybe if that included bullion & rolls of state quarters, I have noticed the same plp at various shows all over the country... the number of collectors that buy single coins in the 5 figure (USD) range probably number in the tens of thousands range... or less.
I wouldn't be surprised if 95%+ of the collectors our there have never bought a >$100 USD coin before; I would expect the bulk (maybe 97% or so) collect coins from change.
You then have to separate the "gift" crowd, I usually will give someone an SAE or Proof set for a special year... they have the coin(s), but they are not collectors!
~g
I'd give you the world, just because...
Speak to me of loved ones, favorite places and things, loves lost and gained, tears shed for joy and sorrow, of when I see the sparkle in your eye ...
and the blackness when the dream dies, of lovers, fools, adventurers and kings while I sip my wine and contemplate the Chi.
<< <i>Sounds like you're promoting the notion with hope of creating demand for such a list. Been done. Still being done. Passably well, in a case or two, but of little use when buying or selling. Face it, you're not the first to think of it. They say that the trouble with youth of today is that they haven't read the minutes of the last meeting. You need to do some research on what is already available, and if you think you can do better, do it. But trying to convince this group, who's been there, done that? Actual, real time pricing of completed sales is available to anyone at anytime. Prices lists are so 19th century. >>
Hi Pharmer,
Not a bad idea, hmmm! "They" sure get credited with saying a lot of things, but it is catchy. Do I impress you as being in that group of not having read the minutes of the last meeting? Thank you! I've been collecting coins since 1943. May I ask what century you are in?
"Many of the benefits of "computer" grading are probably unforeseeable ..." They certainly were, and apparently remain so.
I once was calm, reserved and shy, a rather quiet sort of guy,
A simple scribe of artless odes and sonnets,
But that's before I chanced to stray, into that coin collector's display ...
<< <i>
I've been collecting coins since 1943. >>
Dang!!! I'll only have half a century next year.
Thanks for the beautiful photo of Nike. She has been a favorite of mine since gradeschool days where we had a statue of her in our entrance. Unfortunately that was "Winged Victory" and she was headless and armless but she was still so beautiful as to remain in my heart for more than 60 years. Did you take that photo. If I may critique - the light is directed from below and it makes her look a little more mean than if you direct the light from above.
The source of that figure is an esteemed authority on the field - I've not been given permission to attribute.
Best regards,
Jan
Congratulations on your upcoming achievement. I hope you've enjoyed it as much as I have. For some reason your comment reminded me of a epiteth on one of the old tombstones behind one of the three churches in the square in New Haven - are they still there?
It's related to coins (well, money, anyhow, and since the stone was dated in the 1700's, I think money had to mean coins, right?)
Here Lies John Racquet, who, in his wooden pacquet,
He kept neither horses, nor mules.
He lived like a hog, he died like a dog,
and he left all his money to fools!
These discussions make me thing of many different poems - do you like Kipling? (response: "I don't know, I've never kippled".)
off to bed!
<< <i>
<< <i>Sounds like you're promoting the notion with hope of creating demand for such a list. Been done. Still being done. Passably well, in a case or two, but of little use when buying or selling. Face it, you're not the first to think of it. They say that the trouble with youth of today is that they haven't read the minutes of the last meeting. You need to do some research on what is already available, and if you think you can do better, do it. But trying to convince this group, who's been there, done that? Actual, real time pricing of completed sales is available to anyone at anytime. Prices lists are so 19th century. >>
Hi Pharmer,
Not a bad idea, hmmm! "They" sure get credited with saying a lot of things, but it is catchy. Do I impress you as being in that group of not having read the minutes of the last meeting? Thank you! I've been collecting coins since 1943. May I ask what century you are in? >>
Hmm, you might be right, could just be arrogance on your part.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>I understand that you say that such a list (knowledge) would be of no use to you. Fine. That is your choice. But suppose such a list brought thousands, hundreds of thousands of new collectors into the fold. Would it still be of no use? You have the option to buy IBM stock right now. You even own some, but you still own coins, Are you interested in acquiring a coin and selling it at a profit? I'm willing to bet that you are, and there is nothing wrong with that. Why then is there anything wrong with bringing hundreds of thousands new collectors into the field? It will put upward pressure on prices for sure, but your collection would be worth more. Would that cause distress? People collected coins in the twelfth century - they collect them today. Those were simpler times and they did not have the means to create or maintain such a price list. We do today. The bottom line is that we must bring new collectors into the field else the hobby will die. The younger generation is now computer based. If you don't believe that, try getting change for a quarter at your local grocery store. Computers (sophisticated price lists require sophisticated tools, ergo computers and databases) have improved virtually every enterprise in the world save coin collecting. Why resist the inevitable--it is futile. Prepare to be assimilated. Oh, yes. And if your "coin portfolio" grossly outperforms your IBM portfolio will you just buy more IBM? >>
My point is that such a list would not bring "thousands, hundreds of thousands of new collectors" into the hobby. It, conceivably could bring that many investors in (although I doubt the hundreds of thousands number). However, I do not feel that "Wall Street money" is conducive to the wellbeing of the hobby. The only thing that it has historically done (and I see it happening again currently) is highly overinflate prices to the breaking point. Once this point is reached the investors are gone and the market crashes back to a sustainable level.
Finally, you ask if I would continue to buy more IBM while my coin portfollio grossly outperforms it. My answer depends on how my IBM investments were doing versus my other investments. My coin collection is not an investment. It was (and is) purchased strictly with entertainment dollars. Were it so, I would be willing to sell at the current levels. I am not even with what I foresee as a coming price correction which will make the early 1990's look like a minor hiccup.
"it says right here [slaps printout or points to computer screen] that it's worth $2500" (or whatever price)
"Not to me it ain't!"
Do you mean that you or someone will serve as a market maker based on your price list?
If so, yes that would be useful.
If there is no liquid market for your "computer prices" than it's no better than any other list derived by any other means, including out of thin air.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> There might be a box of 30 1893-S PCGS MS65 DCAMs Morgans but each one of them will have a different serial number. >>
While it is easy to think that all MS-65 coins of a given year are identical, in reality they are not. Some barely make the grade, some are solid for the grade, and some are at the top of the grade.
In years past, we had a simple grading system and it just did not work well. There are easy to see differences in some grades. Look at AU for an example. The difference between AU-50 and AU-58 are easy for anyone to see.
To have a "ticker" for coins would not be easy, nor possible for all coins.
Sure it could work for modern coins as they are easier to agree with.
If you look at rare KEY date coins, all the TPG's give a bump in grade, due to what the market allows.
As the market changes, and more MS-63 coins become MS-65 coins, the "ticker" would have to be changed again.
There is a HUGE chunk of the people today simply looking for "crackout" material. A ticker cannot accurately reflect this.
<< <i>
<< <i>I understand that you say that such a list (knowledge) would be of no use to you. Fine. That is your choice. But suppose such a list brought thousands, hundreds of thousands of new collectors into the fold. Would it still be of no use? You have the option to buy IBM stock right now. You even own some, but you still own coins, Are you interested in acquiring a coin and selling it at a profit? I'm willing to bet that you are, and there is nothing wrong with that. Why then is there anything wrong with bringing hundreds of thousands new collectors into the field? It will put upward pressure on prices for sure, but your collection would be worth more. Would that cause distress? People collected coins in the twelfth century - they collect them today. Those were simpler times and they did not have the means to create or maintain such a price list. We do today. The bottom line is that we must bring new collectors into the field else the hobby will die. The younger generation is now computer based. If you don't believe that, try getting change for a quarter at your local grocery store. Computers (sophisticated price lists require sophisticated tools, ergo computers and databases) have improved virtually every enterprise in the world save coin collecting. Why resist the inevitable--it is futile. Prepare to be assimilated. Oh, yes. And if your "coin portfolio" grossly outperforms your IBM portfolio will you just buy more IBM? >>
My point is that such a list would not bring "thousands, hundreds of thousands of new collectors" into the hobby. It, conceivably could bring that many investors in (although I doubt the hundreds of thousands number). However, I do not feel that "Wall Street money" is conducive to the wellbeing of the hobby. The only thing that it has historically done (and I see it happening again currently) is highly overinflate prices to the breaking point. Once this point is reached the investors are gone and the market crashes back to a sustainable level.
According to the U.S. Mint, the Statehood quarter program has swelled the ranks of coin collectors in the U.S. alone to over 100,000,000. I actually phoned the Mint to get a copy of that press release (which I had previously read) and the sweet young thing promised to send it to me. Alas, she never did and I have not called her back. Do you have an estimate as to how many people became engrossed in those cute little fuzzy animals (what were they called?). Remove the F.U.D. factor and wonderful things can happen. Something so repulsive as a rodent has induced millions to embrace computers (ok, the 'mouse'). We live in an age of instant communictions and very large populations. A measley 100,000 of anything hardly counts anymore (but it would be very welcome in the coin hobby, don't you agree?) Wall Street has done far more good for you and I than harm. Besides, it is not that industry that has abused it's position, it is some bad eggs that are lurking within. If one of the major sources of confusion and chaos is removed, that is if a reliable price list could be developed and supported how could it hurt the hobby? So prices go up, so what? You don't have to sell. Your survivors might want to if they are not collectors and wouldn't it be great if grandpa is respected and remembered as a coin genius since his collection is the foundation of the family fortune? I see such a coin price list as order out of chaos, light out of darkness, the efficient banishment of evil. I'll admit that not all progress is good for everyone. Mankind has steadily progressed in the technology of weapons and warefare but at least in our case, it keeps us free!
Finally, you ask if I would continue to buy more IBM while my coin portfollio grossly outperforms it. My answer depends on how my IBM investments were doing versus my other investments. My coin collection is not an investment. It was (and is) purchased strictly with entertainment dollars. Were it so, I would be willing to sell at the current levels. I am not even with what I foresee as a coming price correction which will make the early 1990's look like a minor hiccup. >>
<< <i>"price lists" are teriffic for commodity coins like white 1881-S dollars.
price lists can only be a starting point for a coin such as a 1797 half dime with fine details, a small hole, and attractive original toning. the "market value" of such a piece changes with the circumstances... the circumstances of it's history, where and when it's offered, and the audience to whom it is offered.
for coins that they're still "making more of " such as modern coins that are "certified" in high grade...
price lists can be obsolete right off the printing press. As you have so aptly demonstrated. >>
Well spoken Sir Baley!
Off the computer can be instantly and constantly updated and remain accurate no matter what happens. Coin prices similar to NYSE or DOW on your cell phone. You wont every have to be away from them.
I'll give ya one thing... you are enthusiastic!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I still don't understand how you're going to make anyone buy or sell at the prices on your list.
"it says right here [slaps printout or points to computer screen] that it's worth $2500" (or whatever price)
"Not to me it ain't!"
Do you mean that you or someone will serve as a market maker based on your price list?
If so, yes that would be useful.
If there is no liquid market for your "computer prices" than it's no better than any other list derived by any other means, including out of thin air. >>
Ahhh, Baley,
Neither I nor the price list will "make" anyone do anything. It will simply be a source of information. "It says right here ...", "Not to me ...", well then you can discount if you like but you will know that you are discounting, and you may well decide to move on to the next customer. And yes, I believe I said that as the concept takes hold, Market Makers will step into the picture. Do you think that Dealers would dislike such a situation? "It says right here ..." "Not to me ..." "So long Charlie, Hello Market Maker ..." just exactly like the stock market. You offer your "thing" for sale and if no one buys it within a certain time, the Market Maker does. The price stays firm that way (of course the Market Maker can "adjust" the price and delay trading, etc. Nothing needs to be invented - the concept has been well developed and tested over a long period of time. There is a number of guys with experience in things computer, like the development of SWIFT, of SSBA, of the computerization of many significant industries and banks, and government facilities, and even in stock market trading programs.
As to a liquid market for "my" "computer prices" (thank you, by the way! I would happily accept such a market) one would think it would do well to get collectors and dealers using computers for their collections and their business. Some do, believe it or not. Now suppose you are a collector, not a dealer - you acquire and never divest. You got your cherry red 1909-S VDB out of circulation. Cost = 1 red cent! You want to insure it as you don't want to lose it. How much? $0.01? Probably not. Coins are money and money is for counting, Kings had counting houses, wouldn't you like to know what your collection is worth today (and this evening, and even tomorrow) if you had to buy it again? Such a price list could keep you updated. This list would be compiled of transactions (just like the stock market prices are compiled of transactions). Even a cheapie home computer can do more transactions is a second than the average coin collector can do in one hundred years in his head. We have the power, we are coin collectors, why not use the power to make our collecting better?
<< <i>According to the U.S. Mint, the Statehood quarter program has swelled the ranks of coin collectors in the U.S. alone to over 100,000,000. I actually phoned the Mint to get a copy of that press release (which I had previously read) and the sweet young thing promised to send it to me. Alas, she never did and I have not called her back. Do you have an estimate as to how many people became engrossed in those cute little fuzzy animals (what were they called?). Remove the F.U.D. factor and wonderful things can happen. Something so repulsive as a rodent has induced millions to embrace computers (ok, the 'mouse'). We live in an age of instant communictions and very large populations. A measley 100,000 of anything hardly counts anymore (but it would be very welcome in the coin hobby, don't you agree?) Wall Street has done far more good for you and I than harm. Besides, it is not that industry that has abused it's position, it is some bad eggs that are lurking within. If one of the major sources of confusion and chaos is removed, that is if a reliable price list could be developed and supported how could it hurt the hobby? So prices go up, so what? You don't have to sell. Your survivors might want to if they are not collectors and wouldn't it be great if grandpa is respected and remembered as a coin genius since his collection is the foundation of the family fortune? I see such a coin price list as order out of chaos, light out of darkness, the efficient banishment of evil. I'll admit that not all progress is good for everyone. Mankind has steadily progressed in the technology of weapons and warefare but at least in our case, it keeps us free! >>
Yes, 100,000 new collectors I agree would be great for the hobby. 100,000 more people who don't give a damn about anything other than "What can I sell this for?" on the other hand I think would be of no help whatsoever. Yes, prices would rise, but I still maintain that that is not necessarily a good thing. I would rather see an accross the board 70% cut in prices--yes, even on my high 5 figure, rapidly approching 6 figure "portfollio". This would IMO be much more conducive to bringing in new collectors than would the current overinflated prices (which basically price many if not most new collectors out of the market) brought about by investors only interested in profit.
As for my heirs respecting and admiring Grandpa I would sincerely hope that it is for something much more substantial than my obsession with little metal disks.
Yo! Did you have to say that? "Hmm, ... could just be arrogance on your part." >>
Though I've belted you and flayed you,
By the livin' Gawd that made you,
You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din! ...
You, dear Pharmer, do not strike me as a Gunga Din! Am I wrong?
Who was it that said that a fanatic is someone who can't change the subject, and won't change his mind?
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
<< <i>
<< <i> If you look at rare KEY date coins, all the TPG's give a bump in grade, due to what the market allows.
As the market changes, and more MS-63 coins become MS-65 coins, the "ticker" would have to be changed again.
There is a HUGE chunk of the people today simply looking for "crackout" material. A ticker cannot accurately reflect this. >>
What could do a better job at this than a computer? Mankind has been puttzing for a jillion years - computers have been on the scene for a few seconds geologically speaking and they have taken us to the moon and beyond. Grading coins would be simple for the right computer program. I see the day when every collector will have one next to his computer and our dear friends at the grading company will have to find new gigs. Think it's not possible - visit a dental lab where they robotically make the inside parts of crowns. Be prepared to swallow hard. Real hard! The bad news (for some, anyhow -- remember buggy whips?) isn't that it's coming, it is that it is definitely coming.
Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."
What would be the advantages of this system? Would you buy IBM stock if it had to be
graded to be sold and might be maxxed out when you found the one you wanted? What
if the number of shares outstanding was open to interpretation because of regrades?
Why not base grade on condition and force price lists to reflect grade?
<< <i>Computers have NOT been here for a few seconds in geologic time. At the Earth's age of 4.6 BY, closer to much less than a 100000th of a second. The bid-ask computer progran you are looking for is copyrighted by the OTC/Island Stock exchanges--now included in NYSE. It automatically matched bids-asks and adjusts price list spreads in micro-seconds with each new transaction. The number of matching orders or sales is also weighted into each new price on the list. >>
Hello Mr. Morgannut,
Thanks for your input. I think your calculation is just a teensy bit off, but I realize you may have chosen different benchmarks. Assuming computers arrived on earth in 1946 (ENIAC) and that the age of the earth is 4.6 BY (which I will accept), my definition of relative age is well off the mark. However, using the points just stated I come up with 1.3 billionths of a second but I am honestly impressed with your figure - very accurate! The reason I was so lax in my definitions is that I assumed that the average person in a coin forum would have less trouble relating to "a few seconds" than to anything measured in billions. I was wrong and thank you for the correction.
May I suggest that I am not looking for anyone else's work or property? Again I perhaps used the wrong computer program to try and illustrate my point. I don't seem to be communicating very well. The point is that creating such a price list is definitely do-able and well within the capabilities of any number of software engineers. And that such a program would, in my opinion, be very worthwhile and useful to coin collectors since would eliminate the greatest mystery in collecting and again, in my opinion, would benefit coin collecting like the computer has benefited most of the things it has been applied to. I am concerned that the youth of today can't function without a computer. If the most critical component of coin collecting (price) isn't available on computers does that mean that coin collecting will die? Would an accurate and reliable and easily accesible price list not improve on the current situation? Progress?
By the way, I know that the stock market stuff is copyrighted and that the copyrights have been tested in court. I have been in court four times myself protecting copyrights against some of the largest of U.S. corporations, and so far (knock wood), we have prevailed in each case. I have no interest in copying existing systems. Creating is far more exciting. Have you heard of the MITS Altair? The TEI Micromainframe? The MAXICOM?
<< <i>The simple fact is that price lists are reflective of grades and grades are based on price.
What would be the advantages of this system? Would you buy IBM stock if it had to be
graded to be sold and might be maxxed out when you found the one you wanted? What
if the number of shares outstanding was open to interpretation because of regrades?
Why not base grade on condition and force price lists to reflect grade? >>
Ah, CladKing!
Good points! But aren't grades already based on condition? I realize that may be difficult to grasp looking at the output of some of the grading companies, but isn't that what it is supposed to be? Grade by definition is "Various qualities of a commodity or thing".
The advantage of this system is that it would provide a solid, verifiable, believable, benchmark that collectors could trust. It would abolish the FUD factor in coin collecting. Price is the most important factor in coin collecting whether you intend to buy or sell or not. It is the measure. If the measure is a standard and accepted by all you've achieved the grand stroke. Collectors and dealers can buy and sell with no fear. Coin collecting will live long and prosper.
The stock market (it's taken them what? 200+ years!) has quantified the value of a very illusive thing - a "company". What is a company? A few or many buildings or none, a few or many people (or none), a few or many products (or none, tangible, that is), and a legal existance which is "air". What would you do with 1 billionth of IBM? You can't take it home. The concept is accepted, understood, and reasonably accepted, so it "works". You might call it "civilization".
My desire is to help, if possible, coin collecting survive and prosper. Suppose I, or you, could produce such a price list - don't you see any value in it? Does anyone?
I realize I may have a different perspective. Many do. Most live, then die. Some shake the world and leave it a better place. If I have a choice I would rather be a shaker.
<< <i> But aren't grades already based on condition? >>
No.
Market values are based on condition and grade is based on market value. This is what
makes the whole system so hard to pin down. The market mostly is just the most some in-
dividual is willing to pay for a coin with specific attributes. A poorly struck gem, a mark-free
coin with horrid surfaces, and a well struck coin with a few distracting marks can all be
priced exactly the same (MS-64). These coins will appeal to much different collectors of
the series and their tastes will evolve over time. Pinning down a single value for three very
different coins is an impossibility except at the moment they have the same value. When
they are sold they'll bring varying amounts over or under any price list unless that list is
forced to conform to the real world.
<< <i>What could do a better job at this than a computer? >>
A computer can never completely predict eye appeal. This is the same problem with photos. What looks beautiful to one person doesn't necessarily look beautiful to another.
Look at the current rage with toned coins. How can a computer accurately price a stunning toner? People are paying far over any price guide because a coin has color.
There are members here who buy and sell colorful coins for hundreds of dollars, even thousands of dollars above a similar graded coin without the color.
No picture can accurately show the TRUE eye appeal. A coin has to be rotated and turned.
Coins are not like other objects such as buggy whips. No one was paying moon money for a buggy whip because it had toned over the years.
Coins are similar to art. The true value is determined more by what you like, versus the technical condition.
As I said earlier, not all MS-65 coins are the same. Just because they may be technically graded the same, doesn't mean that they look the same.
<< <i>
<< <i>What could do a better job at this than a computer? >>
A computer can never completely predict eye appeal. This is the same problem with photos. What looks beautiful to one person doesn't necessarily look beautiful to another.
Look at the current rage with toned coins. How can a computer accurately price a stunning toner? People are paying far over any price guide because a coin has color.
There are members here who buy and sell colorful coins for hundreds of dollars, even thousands of dollars above a similar graded coin without the color.
No picture can accurately show the TRUE eye appeal. A coin has to be rotated and turned.
Coins are not like other objects such as buggy whips. No one was paying moon money for a buggy whip because it had toned over the years.
Coins are similar to art. The true value is determined more by what you like, versus the technical condition.
As I said earlier, not all MS-65 coins are the same. Just because they may be technically graded the same, doesn't mean that they look the same. >>
I have to agree with what you say here. After all the right artist can just throw paint at a canvass and sell it for moon money. Do I think thats rediculous, yes.
Putting pricing aside, and realizing that a computer may not be able to accuratly take eye appeal into account, since that is in the eye of the beholder. wouldn't a technical grade put aside some of the uuuuum, pardon the expression, bull s@#$ ?. Since a computer wouldnt have a bad day, and take a point off everything.
Or let me ask it this way. If a NEW TPG opened, COMPUGRADE INC. And showed that there is little or no chance of getting an upgrade from NGC, or PCGS. Do you think that Co. would attain the recognition it deserves? Or be looked at as most other TPGs are?
(Priest) BLASPHEMY he said it again, did you hear him?