Will a true challenger to eBay ever emerge?

theRealist · May 6, 2006 5:20AM

Sure, there have been attempts to compete with eBay, such as Yahoo! auctions, the big "O" etc., but all have failed to make significant headway. To truly compete, someone is going to have to come up with something radically different to eBay's design and formula.

Do you see anything on the horizon that could possibly give eBay a run for it's money? Perhaps all the dealers of the world could consider starting their own "dealer auction" site of listings composed entirely of dealer's inventory listings. Just a thought.

Russ · May 6, 2006 5:22AM

No.

Russ, NCNE

cullenbryant · May 6, 2006 5:25AM

wow, that was quick. i think something with a self policing setup could work. kind of like the bst
is here.

Barndog · May 6, 2006 5:25AM

I don't think even if "freebay" were to start that it could compete, given ebay's current market share.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 5:25AM

<< No.

Russ, NCNE >>

So, barring an implosion by eBay, you believe they are here to stay? You don't think anybody will come up with an original idea that would be better than the eBay model?

ziggy29 · May 6, 2006 5:29AM

eBay's business model is about as close to a pure natural monopoly as they come. I think eBay's virtual monopoly is 10 times stronger than even Microsoft's.

keets · May 6, 2006 5:32AM

i think it could happen in certain specific areas such as coins but probably not for everything the way eBay is set up. if it ever does happen it'll most likely be suicide at eBay's own hand.

majorbigtime · May 6, 2006 5:32AM

I wonder why His Hallness or another shrewed businessperson doesn't develop a coin only auction site. Specialist sites could put a dent in Fleaybay IMO.

Dave99B · May 6, 2006 5:33AM

Ummmm....."No".

Dave

BobaFett72 · May 6, 2006 5:35AM

i dont think you need to change the business model, its a good model. something radically different wouldnt work. They lack in the following areas.... fraudulent auctions, a ineffective feedback system, awful customer service....to name three things. To compete you would need to reach a lot of folks immediately...it wouldnt work unless it had big names and big money behind the venture. To their credit when you place an auciton on Ebay you have thousand of potential bidders (millions would be a bit of a stretch) You also have thousand of competitors selling lots of the same stuff, or stealing your auction photos and descriptions....guess we are stuck with it for the time being.

TorinoCobra71 · May 6, 2006 5:36AM

Not Likely.......

TC71

streeter · May 6, 2006 5:46AM

On coins, yes Heritage could do it.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 5:49AM

<< On coins, yes Heritage could do it. >>

Ok, what would they need to change or tweak to make this happen?

slumlord98 · May 6, 2006 5:50AM

<< wonder why His Hallness or another shrewed businessperson doesn't develop a coin only auction site. >>

That's what this site used to be before there was a forum, set up just like ebay, also with weekly auctions like teletrade that were put on by CU. It folded in '99 or '00.

dizzyfoxx · May 6, 2006 6:00AM

<Will a true challenger to eBay ever emerge?>

Not a rat's chance in

...IMHO

RedTiger · May 6, 2006 6:02AM

Of course yes, however, it is extremely unlikely to be any time soon. Five years from now, I'd put the odds or a significant competitor with more than 20% dollar volume market share, at about 20%, ten years out 50%. It will happen, it is just a matter of when, and then how eBay responds to the challenger(s).

Things change, and when change happens it often catches like wildfire like eBay itself. Until that spark hits, though, those old trees look like they can withstand anything.

ziggy29 · May 6, 2006 6:12AM

<< Of course yes, however, it is extremely unlikely to be any time soon. Five years from now, I'd put the odds or a significant competitor with more than 20% dollar volume market share, at about 20%, ten years out 50%. It will happen, it is just a matter of when, and then how eBay responds to the challenger(s). >>

I think it's extremely difficult. Even if you started a new service giving free listings, how would you expect to get sellers to list with you instead of at eBay where they probably have 10 to 100 times as many eyes searching for what you're selling, and thus a strong likelihood of a sale price that exceeds your venue by far more than the eBay fees?

fc · May 6, 2006 6:23AM

i always find questions like this humorous. why?

because what ebay is is not complicated.

one or two of us who specialize in IT could get some open
source code, free hardware, and colo-services for nothing.

we could put together a bare bones auction site slightly customized
in a weekend. it would probably integrate with paypal too,
so ebay would still get a slice in ways.

the harder part is getting a core group of people here to
promote and use it. after those core people tour the US
at coin shows promoting it.. and fine tuning the site the whole
time..

it could happen pretty easily.

i guess the jist of this post is, if 100 people here wanted it
to truly happen, it could. for coins.

291fifth · May 6, 2006 6:38AM

eBay's greatest danger to itself is its own management.

eBay's stock has fallen considerably in the past year or two. You can be sure that this is putting tremendous pressure on top management. The problem is that eBay's original auction idea was a "once-in-a-lifetime" success that they are unlikely to be able to duplicate with any new product.

I use eBay's auctions a great deal. I love them. I also use PayPal, which I view as a necessary evil. The buyers want to use PayPal and if I don't offer it my auction realizations will suffer. Their other products, however, such as eBay Stores and Skype, mean nothing to me.

The scammer problem is also a potential threat to eBay. I feel that auction realizations in many catagories, coins being one of them, are being negatively affected by the scammer factor. eBay's management has not addressed this issue satisfactorily because of the legal need to be "only a venue."

Barry · May 6, 2006 6:40AM

<< 

<< On coins, yes Heritage could do it. >>

Ok, what would they need to change or tweak to make this happen? >>

First, they would need to lower their 15% commission, which is outrageous for Internet only auction when you consider expenses of these compared to Signature sales (real descriptions, printed catalogs, etc.)

At this point, only a company with very deep pockets could try to upstage Ebay. I can see Google or maybe Microsoft making a go and succeeding.

streeter · May 6, 2006 6:45AM

As a buy/ sell forum, Craigslist has grown considerably. Ebay is the 600 pound gorilla and if you want top buck for trash--it really does things well. Quality sellers & quality items up for sale are not rewarded properly and never will be because Ebay is appealing to the lowest common denominator.

When you have nice quality and/or are tired of dealing with Ebay problem buyers/sellers---------YOU LEAVE and go elsewhere.

ziggy29 · May 6, 2006 6:49AM

<< When you have nice quality and/or are tired of dealing with Ebay problem buyers/sellers---------YOU LEAVE and go elsewhere. >>

I agree. But at best, that leaves the other alternatives as niche players.

CarlWohlforth · May 6, 2006 6:53AM

I don't see anything on the horizon. It does seem like eBay is losing momentum. So I would guess given enough time something will come along to replace eBay. If I could imagine what that is I wouldn't tell anybody just yet.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 7:01AM

If the dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium in which every coin listed for sale and auction was from a legitimate dealer's inventory, would that have a shot? It would sort of be a "virtual shopping mall" where collectors could go for one-stop shopping. They could shop with confidence since they know this is a dealer-only network, and the competition would help in giving the consumer a reasonable and fair price.

To prevent the wannabe's and crooks of the world from getting listed, approval would be required before you could list.

topstuf · May 6, 2006 7:03AM

No. Not only "no" but ...... FUDGE NO!!!

theRealist · May 6, 2006 7:04AM

<< No. Not only "no" but ...... FUDGE NO!!! >>

Why not?

topstuf · May 6, 2006 7:05AM

<< dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium >>

....dealers..... consortium.....

Find 2 who will CONSISTENTLY cooperate. Or.....speak.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 7:06AM

<< 

<< dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium >>

....dealers..... consortium.....

Find 2 who will CONSISTENTLY cooperate. Or.....speak.

>>

then why do coins shows exist?

Russ · May 6, 2006 7:07AM

In the early days eBay had a very viable competitor in haggle.com. In fact, that's where I did all my selling in the late 90's. They were an excellent site, heavy on customer service, easy to use, and with some excellent innovation - for example, individual feedbacks remained hidden until approved by the recipient. Unfortunately, they went to the dot.bomb graveyard.

Russ, NCNE

topstuf · May 6, 2006 7:09AM

<< Why not? >>

Because we're talking COIN dealers. We are not talking DIAMOND dealers who will not only refer, borrow, consign, cooperate, finance, assist, and SUPPORT each other to keep the market with as high a margin as possible thus making JEWELRY stores viable on every block in every town in every city in the whole dang world.

NOOOOOOO

This is COINS. Gonnagetafreshcollectionheeheehee an keep it ALL to myself. What? I could make more money and get more customers? No way, man!

topstuf · May 6, 2006 7:11AM

Coin shows exist to dump stuff and/or show off.

291fifth · May 6, 2006 7:16AM

<< If the dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium in which every coin listed for sale and auction was from a legitimate dealer's inventory, would that have a shot? It would sort of be a "virtual shopping mall" where collectors could go for one-stop shopping. They could shop with confidence since they know this is a dealer-only network, and the competition would help in giving the consumer a reasonable and fair price.

To prevent the wannabe's and crooks of the world from getting listed, approval would be required before you could list. >>

Why would you restrict this to dealers only? One of the draws of eBay is that collectors can bypass dealers when selling.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 7:21AM

<< 

<< If the dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium in which every coin listed for sale and auction was from a legitimate dealer's inventory, would that have a shot? It would sort of be a "virtual shopping mall" where collectors could go for one-stop shopping. They could shop with confidence since they know this is a dealer-only network, and the competition would help in giving the consumer a reasonable and fair price.

To prevent the wannabe's and crooks of the world from getting listed, approval would be required before you could list. >>

Why would you restrict this to dealers only? One of the draws of eBay is that collectors can bypass dealers when selling. >>

I'm referring to collectors looking to buy, not sell. You know that the coins you are looking at are being offered by reputable dealers, not crooks and shysters.

291fifth · May 6, 2006 7:25AM

<< 

<< 

<< If the dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium in which every coin listed for sale and auction was from a legitimate dealer's inventory, would that have a shot? It would sort of be a "virtual shopping mall" where collectors could go for one-stop shopping. They could shop with confidence since they know this is a dealer-only network, and the competition would help in giving the consumer a reasonable and fair price.

To prevent the wannabe's and crooks of the world from getting listed, approval would be required before you could list. >>

Why would you restrict this to dealers only? One of the draws of eBay is that collectors can bypass dealers when selling. >>

I'm referring to collectors looking to buy, not sell. You know that the coins you are looking at are being offered by reputable dealers, not crooks and shysters. >>

How would you know that? There are several well known dealers that I would never consider dealing with due to past experiences.

MrSpud · May 6, 2006 7:26AM

Overstock is pretty much the same as E-bay, only with a smaller dealer/customer base. I wonder if 100 of the dealers who are in these forums agred to switch to Overstock and it was publicized here on the forums if it would be enough to start enough growth over there. Once critical mass is achieved it could go Nuclear. We could have a Boycott E-bay month and everything. It might be fun.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 7:28AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< If the dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium in which every coin listed for sale and auction was from a legitimate dealer's inventory, would that have a shot? It would sort of be a "virtual shopping mall" where collectors could go for one-stop shopping. They could shop with confidence since they know this is a dealer-only network, and the competition would help in giving the consumer a reasonable and fair price.

To prevent the wannabe's and crooks of the world from getting listed, approval would be required before you could list. >>

Why would you restrict this to dealers only? One of the draws of eBay is that collectors can bypass dealers when selling. >>

I'm referring to collectors looking to buy, not sell. You know that the coins you are looking at are being offered by reputable dealers, not crooks and shysters. >>

How would you know that? There are several well known dealers that I would never consider dealing with due to past experiences. >>

Becoming a seller would require review and approval in order to prevent shady characters from listing their wares.

theRealist · May 6, 2006 7:32AM

<< Overstock is pretty much the same as E-bay, only with a smaller dealer/customer base. I wonder if 100 of the dealers who are in these forums agred to switch to Overstock and it was publicized here on the forums if it would be enough to start enough growth over there. Once critical mass is achieved it could go Nuclear. We could have a Boycott E-bay month and everything. It might be fun. >>

This is what I am referring to. If every reputable dealer pulled their listings and listed them on the "Dealer Numismatic Network (DNN)", why wouldn't the collectors follow them?

291fifth · May 6, 2006 7:40AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< If the dealers of the world pulled their auctions and stores off eBay tomorrow, and started their own consortium in which every coin listed for sale and auction was from a legitimate dealer's inventory, would that have a shot? It would sort of be a "virtual shopping mall" where collectors could go for one-stop shopping. They could shop with confidence since they know this is a dealer-only network, and the competition would help in giving the consumer a reasonable and fair price.

To prevent the wannabe's and crooks of the world from getting listed, approval would be required before you could list. >>

Why would you restrict this to dealers only? One of the draws of eBay is that collectors can bypass dealers when selling. >>

I'm referring to collectors looking to buy, not sell. You know that the coins you are looking at are being offered by reputable dealers, not crooks and shysters. >>

How would you know that? There are several well known dealers that I would never consider dealing with due to past experiences. >>

Becoming a seller would require review and approval in order to prevent shady characters from listing their wares. >>

Review and approval by whom?

MrSpud · May 6, 2006 7:44AM

Something that might be really awesome would be if a reputable TPG had a slab/auction service. You send in the coins you want to auction, they grade or regrade them and slab them in new slabs where they guarantee the grade and authenticity and are liable if the coins are doctored. Kind of like what PCGS is doing right now, only each coin would be newly graded and put straight up for auction.

xphobe · May 6, 2006 8:00AM

Try Proxibid. <SimonCowellVoice> Absolutely appalling. </SimonCowellVoice>

Their fuzzy photos, quirky live auction applet, and mysterious glitches almost make you want to pay eBay 20% juice. I can't see how they're still in business. I can almost smell the straw and manure under my feet.

topstuf · May 6, 2006 8:19AM

I think it .... COULD.... work. If the judge would let us use his barn.

Shamika · May 6, 2006 9:01AM

It will take something like the legal system to drop eBay down a few notches before anything else can even think of competing.

DCAM · May 6, 2006 9:47AM

I'm not sure about coins only but Google Auctions may have the clout to give feebay a credible run for the money.

topstuf · May 6, 2006 10:09AM

OK, let's do it. First we need to get "over" our silly notions about repros and fakes. We need VOLUME.
And why not drop "feedback?" That should be good for 25-30,000 users.

max911 · May 6, 2006 10:11AM

I don't know the answer but I sure hope so. I know I would support anything else that cames along

messydesk · May 6, 2006 10:14AM

Gresham's Law, or some variation on it, seems to be taking hold at eBay. The bad sellers and driving out the good sellers, and the incompetent eBay staff isn't helping matters any. The problem is that the good sellers have nowhere to go. They do, however, have lists of previous buyers that could be notified of a gradual shift in listings from eBay, an apparently increasingly hostile place to try and sell coins, to a new site, where sellers are screened, whether they are dealers or other collectors, and qualified people that can tell in a heartbeat whether an auction is legit or not police the sales. To make up for initial bidder traffic being light, listing fees would have to be pretty low, which is why only a well heeled company could pull this off. Advertise it in the trade rags, put banners on popular web pages, give out frisbees at shows. It wouldn't take long to notify eBay buyers that you'll be listing stuff on an auction site tailored for coins which by its design is a safer place to buy coins than eBay. Then Gresham's Law can continue it's magic on eBay, and drive out all the good sellers.

Conder101 · May 6, 2006 5:30PM

If you were to try to take on the FULL eBay and sell everything I think you would quickly go down in flames unless you were prepared to throw a TON of money into it like Microsoft or Google could do. But if you were to concentrate in a single niche, concentrate on customer service, and be very proactive about investigating complaints about fakes, keyword spamming etc, then I think it would be very possible to take them on. It would be slow at first because, as has been said, sellers will tend to stick with eBay because that's were the buyers are. But if the fees are kept low, sellers could probably be convince to start listing some on the new site. Then as it gained in its reputation for not permitting scams it would attract more buyers, especially if the crackdown and removal of offenders became widely known. As the buyers increased so would the sellers. In time the niche auction site could overtake that area of eBay, or it might forse eBay to become much more proactive in the policing of their own site in order to prevent the sellers from leaving, which would be just as satisfactory. If the new site fails but causes eBay to more seriously police themselves could still be considered to be a success.

construct · May 6, 2006 5:41PM

I've heard about something called Teletrade. There seems to be some sort of downside to it, but I just can't recall what it was. High fees? Only certified coins? Something.

MMB · May 7, 2006 5:04AM

Please take a look at what CCE has to offer to the Collector. We have over 22,000 listings
(and growing as more and more dealers participate) for sale in a
secure environnment. These listing are offered by Members of CCE ie Certified Coin exchange & FACTS
Dealer Network. Only Members may list. They pay no listing fees & no commisions are paid, therefore the
prices reflect a very good price. We have been gaining momentum the past 6 months and have active
buyers and the sellers that keep their inventory UP to Date. Many listers update weekly and some Daily.
Many have photos, and we encourage questions. This is not an auction, but many specific
coins have multiple dealers selling so one can pick the better price.

www.certifiedcoinexchange.com is the site and the COLLECTORS CORNER is the shopping area.

Michigan · May 7, 2006 7:14AM

I heard that Google considered the idea but then decided not to go forward. If a big outfit like Google thinks it is not
worth the effort that really tells you something.

p.s. I finally dropped dial up and am posting with Comcast high speed internet. Quite a difference in speed.

Michigan · May 7, 2006 7:16AM

Anyone remember Krause's attempt at an online auction site? It was around I think for less than a year before they
threw in the towel. Ebay was too well established.

Will a true challenger to eBay ever emerge?

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