oh my........ looks like GOLD!! is on a crash/downward sprial???!!!!!

michael · February 10, 2006 7:00AM

what will happen next??

are you a net seller?

or will you try to move your better date numismatic pre 1933 gold coins

or possibly will you hedge your bets and buy more bullion or more numismatic gold like threes or choice unc saints??

or

AU58WALKERS · February 10, 2006 7:03AM

PANIC! PANIC! Run in circles scream and shot "The sky is falling, The sky is falling!"

$550.20 realy isn't much of a "crash/downward spiral"

topstuf · February 10, 2006 7:11AM

My bullion is a ...HOLD... I don't trade. I add to it when it dips significantly, but mainly it is my estate and insurance. It is pure speculation and insurance against catastrophe. It can start a new life (if needed) anywhere in the world. It is the thing that I can sell piecemeal as needed/ if needed without sacrificing anything I really want to keep.
I like bullion. It's mine. All mine. There are few things I can say that about completely.

michael · February 10, 2006 7:13AM

$550.20 realy isn't much of a "crash/downward spiral"

oh really?/ well 26 years ago i was in it at 800 dollars an ounce

JJM · February 10, 2006 7:16AM

its a buy !

LanLord · February 10, 2006 7:19AM

I'll buy at $200/oz!

AU58WALKERS · February 10, 2006 7:26AM

5 years ago i got in at $265...still holding.

HonoluluDude · February 10, 2006 7:29AM

Downward spiral. pffffffttt.

Buy the dip.

13PacesEast · February 10, 2006 7:51AM

falling is the sky

Coindexter · February 10, 2006 7:58AM

BURN BABY BURN! Let me see $300 an ounce! Seriously though, I don't think the downward movement will continue.

ziggy29 · February 10, 2006 8:06AM

Hard to believe that gold would be down so much after the horrific trade deficit numbers that just came in. That would seem to portend a very weak dollar, which is usually bullish for gold. Some heavy hitters must be doing some serious profit-taking.

AU58WALKERS · February 10, 2006 8:09AM

<< <i>Hard to believe that gold would be down so much after the horrific trade deficit numbers that just came in. That would seem to portend a very weak dollar, which is usually bullish for gold. Some heavy hitters must be doing some serious profit-taking. >>

Not trying to hijack the thread, But damn ZIGGY, you need a au58 walker in that set.

roadrunner · February 10, 2006 3:05PM

Profit taking? Probably more like short selling by the usual manipulators (FED, Goldman Sachs, and the boys) and the spooking of the little guy who is running on margin. As much as these guys drive it down, there will be buyers happy to get cheaper than $570.
Lots of paper selling.

roadrunner

RedTiger · February 10, 2006 3:44PM

Crash might be appropiate if gold reaches $350. I doubt it will get that far. $500 is my first price target. We will, see how it trades if and when it breaks $500.

Gold has the appearance of a classic market top:
* absurdly bullish sentiment readings (MarketVane)
* cover of Barron's (a month ago)
* civil unrest in major cities
* rumors/fears of impending military action
* radio ads for gold coins on mainstream stations
* The capper is the price action

The volatile price action that makes every bull think the next up day will make up any losses. At a top, one day the goose is cooked, prices are much lower, and the bulls wonder how that happened. Whether this is a "top" or only a "pause" only time and the market will tell. Hopefully I will listen. I'm leaning towards an intermediate top, but evidence can change my mind in a day or a week.

There was one "gold bug" writing what does it matter if gold dips to $350, as long as it is going to $1000 in the long run. This kind of thinking is what makes a top. If a person can buy 50% more gold at $350 vs. here, then in my mind it makes a big difference. Again, $500 is what I'm looking for in the short term (and $8 silver).

Despite all of this, I remain a "true believer" in the long term bullish case for gold. However, in my mind the low risk play right now is on the short side. The high risk play is being long.

Standard disclaimer: my opinions are not advice. Virtually everyone reading this is a grown up. Everyone needs to do their own research, look at whatever evidence they believe is relevant and make their own decisions. Anyone asking for investment advice on a coin board is in way over their head. The average collector has no business trying to time the bullion markets.

coinnut86 · February 10, 2006 5:42PM

I hope it gets low for the 06 buffs.. then it can go back up

Steve27 · February 10, 2006 7:52PM

No signs of a crash yet:

IrishMike · February 10, 2006 8:36PM

No but if you bought it in 1988 not much of a return on investment. Three things will happen buy and sell for the short term and make or lose money or hold on for the long term and you on average would be better off in bank CD's. I don't see the fascination in this gamble.

thebestMAX · February 10, 2006 11:06PM

This drop couldnt have happened next week? Im planning on buying at the local show next Sunday so it will probably be back up by then.

roadrunner · February 10, 2006 11:40PM

The fascination with this gamble is that I have not had my extra money in CD's since late 2002, but rather in gold coins or regular US type coins. Have not had a CD since the 1980's. Rather than earning a few percent at best in a CD, many gold coins are up some 50-100% in that same period. Bullion is up 70% since I jumped into this game. Many of my nice type coins cannot claim the same, or even close to that........at least not yet.
Anyone putting money into the CRB's commodities index would have made similar gains. Gold coins act very much like cash with respect to liquidity, especially the generic $20's. It's not bad to earn money on your liquid "cash."

That "guy" that bought gold back in 1988 (maybe there is still one left) and still has it may yet be vindicated in the next 5-10 years.
I would not be surprised to see both stocks and gold bullion to finally cross paths and have the same return from 1988-2012 or a similarly close period. So far stocks are over 5X ahead. That ratio will be coming down.

roadrunner

WTCG · February 11, 2006 1:42PM

Large certified gold coins were actually inceasing in value at the Long Beach bourse at the same time the spot price of gold was falling. Getting people to buy slabbed Saints was tricky at first, but as gold spot fell there was much more demand for them.

Russellp23 · February 11, 2006 1:49PM

Last week was just a bad week for the market period. It'll pick back up

HonoluluDude · February 11, 2006 2:35PM

All commodities in general are selling off.
Looks like a correction phase due to hot money leaving the sector.

Again, this is a buying opportunity coming up.

RedTiger · February 11, 2006 4:01PM

<< <i>No but if you bought it in 1988 not much of a return on investment. Three things will happen buy and sell for the short term and make or lose money or hold on for the long term and you on average would be better off in bank CD's. I don't see the fascination in this gamble.

>>

Thanks for posting the long term chart. A "normal" correction in a bull market would be 1/3 to 1/2 of the $300+ gain from the $260 bottom. That would take gold to about $470 on the 1/3 correction, or about $410 on a 1/2 move. Even if these corrections occur, the bull market case can still remain intact.

Anyone buying today at $550 needs to go in with their eyes open. Yes, there is a lot of potential upside, but it is not all upside, like it has been for most of the last few years (look at the chart).

fc · February 11, 2006 4:08PM

i bought a pair of shoes for my girlfriend as a valentines gift.
cost 50 dollars.

we had dinner and drinks at a nice restuarant bar.
cost 40 dollars plus 5 as a tip, 45 total.

So i spent almost 100 dollars on a dinner and gift, but people
are scared to buy a whole ounce of solid gold for 550?

get real! that is a bargain! gold will be 1000+ an ounce in less
than a decade, because i honestly believe our current govt can
muck things up that badly!

RedTiger · February 11, 2006 4:15PM

<< <i>...

So i spent almost 100 dollars on a dinner and gift, but people
are scared to buy a whole ounce of solid gold for 550?

get real! that is a bargain! gold will be 1000+ an ounce in less
than a decade, because i honestly believe our current govt can
muck things up that badly! >>

Actually, I think $1000 an ounce is on the low side. Again, I have said time and time again that the average collector should ignore these short term fluctuations and steadily accumulate on a regular basis.

That said, I am bearish for the short term and have positioned myself accordingly. All that can change in a heartbeat, but that's where I stand today.

mozin · February 11, 2006 4:23PM

I have some gold, just enough small pieces to buy groceries and gasoline when the nukes hit the USA. What would we do if the terrorists blew up a number of our financial institutions and we could not access our monies? Stocks, bonds, CDs, and ordinary checking accounts would not be worth anything until the country is back to functioning normally.

With all the talk about Iran's nuclear program I would think gold should continue going up.

oh my........ looks like GOLD!! is on a crash/downward sprial???!!!!!

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