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Hype or Here to Stay?
AndyNC2005
Posts: 171
Do these areas of collecting have legs or are they just a passing fad?
1. Modern "Pop Tops"
2. "Monster Toners"
3. Minor "Modern Errors" ("Speared Bison" and other modern die breaks)
4. Modern registry sets
1. Modern "Pop Tops"
2. "Monster Toners"
3. Minor "Modern Errors" ("Speared Bison" and other modern die breaks)
4. Modern registry sets
0
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<< <i>Do these areas of collecting have legs or are they just a passing fad?
2. "Monster Toners"
>>
Also known as booooner toners.
1. Modern "Pop Tops": Will remain popular only as long as registry sets remain the craze.
2. Monster Toners: Will remain popular but you must be a "player" and know the field very, very
well. There is a huge potential for loss on these if you aren't truly an expert in the field.
3. Minor Modern Errors: Will be quickly forgotten.
4. Modern Registry Sets: A fad, and like all fads, it will fade. When the current "hot" market cools
the registry set fad will end.
All four of these areas are probably going to be very vulnerable in the event of a general economic downturn.
Liquidity could be a very big problem.
<< <i>Do these areas of collecting have legs or are they just a passing fad?
1. Modern "Pop Tops"
2. "Monster Toners"
3. Minor "Modern Errors" ("Speared Bison" and other modern die breaks)
4. Modern registry sets >>
I believe that even the people making a killing right now - mostly on the modern tops and fads, less, but still to some degree, on the toners - know that this game is entering the late innings.
When people are selling 69's for a fortune that they haven't even pulled from sets yet, let alone sent in for grading ---- I sure hope light bulbs are going off in some heads.
I like nice toning on the coin, but I ain't paying a stupid price for it, so I don't care what these really do.....
I would probably have to say the other three are hype and not likely to stay.....
Just look at the Proof ASE's.
Recently minted coins are currently very popular, despite their enormous mintages, because they can be readily found in pretty grades like MS68 and MS69, and PR69.
Truly rare (in any grade) coins will only be popular with folks who can tolerate an ugly grade like VG or VF or AU details, cleaned. (grades such as many of the popular Reiver coins were)
different markets, different fundamentals.
collect what you like
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>High grade moderns aren't going anywhere. Say what you will about huge mintages and improved quality control but certain dates and mint marks are just plain tough in high grades. Besides, moderns don't stay modern. If all of the modern bashers here had been around in the first three decades of the Twentieth Century they could have groused about how a mintage of roughly a quarter million pieces means that 1916 D dimes would never be "rare" or how common 1921 Walkers and 1928 Peace Dollars are. All the while I would have been the guy politely nodding as I put a few rolls away. >>
Ditto that. Exactly true. Moderns won't remain moderns forever. It is hilarious when people start bashing moderns. I wonder if the same happened back in the 1940s and 1950s - heck even the 1960s! Imagine having a set of PR and MS69 and 70s from the 1950s! Heh
<< <i>
I believe that even the people making a killing right now - mostly on the modern tops and fads, less, but still to some degree, on the toners - know that this game is entering the late innings.
When people are selling 69's for a fortune that they haven't even pulled from sets yet, let alone sent in for grading ---- I sure hope light bulbs are going off in some heads. >>
It is indeed the late innings and the away team has a comfortable lead. What we know
and all the home team fans don't know is that we're turning it into a blowout in the top
of the ninth and the bases are already jammed.
<< <i>Do these areas of collecting have legs or are they just a passing fad?
1. Modern "Pop Tops"
2. "Monster Toners"
3. Minor "Modern Errors" ("Speared Bison" and other modern die breaks)
4. Modern registry sets >>
What many collectors overlook is that asking this question is nearly identical to asking if the United States
is going to fail or be taken over by a foreign power. The only alternative to our more recent coins never be-
coming popular is that if it can be shown that coins were no longer minted after 1964. It is exactly this lat-
ter argument which gets the most circulation. Hence the drumbeat of 'coins with no silver aren't collectible".
And modern coins are really tokens representing fiat currency.
Old timers have been shouting such things enmass for generations and still the prices have finally
started to increase. The coins weren't saved because they have been known to be crap and no one wants it
on his hands. Now a few of the old timers are waking up and many of the newbies are finding that if no one
saved common coins that were very poorly made then there simply aren't any surviving coins in high grade.
It's a simple concept but how else do you explain a very rare coin like an MS-67 1969 quarter going from less
than a dollar to $1,000 in only about eight years? You may believe it's mass hypnosis or some sort of hys-
teria but the simple fact remains that modern rarity costs far less than classic rarity and these markets are
still growing in leaps and bounds.
The United States will still be here and will continue to make coins for many years and real collectors will
continue to collect them.
<< <i>Moderns won't remain moderns forever. It is hilarious when people start bashing moderns. I wonder if the same happened back in the 1940s and 1950s - heck even the 1960s! Imagine having a set of PR and MS69 and 70s from the 1950s! Heh >>
True but common will stay common a lot longer than you will be alive. There are still boxes of proof sets around from the 60's under 20 bucks each.
<< <i>There are still boxes of proof sets around from the 60's under 20 bucks each. >>
Yes, there are. And 99% of them contain nothing of consequence.
Russ, NCNE
2. "Monster Toners"-----these will always be sought, but if history repeats itself, they may slip into disfavor with the masses just as brilliant coins and roll collecting have been fads with the majority of the hobby. toned coins do have a hedge which may entrench them, but the pricing needs to be "sane-itized" to sustain itself with the masses.
3. Minor "Modern Errors" ("Speared Bison" and other modern die breaks)-----i think savvy collectors will never be suckered by this niche market but there will always be niche collectors who will be suckered by savvy hypsters like tRok or whatever her name is.
4. Modern registry sets-----if i were to judge by their increased popularity, evolution to meet the demand of participants and the growing number of collectors hobby-wide, i'd say they are a part of Numismatics for the long haul. i don't see Registry Sets doing anything in a negative way for a long time.
JMHO, BTW.
Yes, there are. And 99% of them contain nothing of consequence.
please, Russ, let the rest of us look at some of the 1% before you do!!!
A witty saying proves nothing- Voltaire (1694 - 1778)
An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor
does the truth become error because nobody will see it. -Mohandas K. Gandhi (1869-1948)
<< <i>
<< <i>High grade moderns aren't going anywhere. Say what you will about huge mintages and improved quality control but certain dates and mint marks are just plain tough in high grades. Besides, moderns don't stay modern. If all of the modern bashers here had been around in the first three decades of the Twentieth Century they could have groused about how a mintage of roughly a quarter million pieces means that 1916 D dimes would never be "rare" or how common 1921 Walkers and 1928 Peace Dollars are. All the while I would have been the guy politely nodding as I put a few rolls away. >>
Ditto that. Exactly true. Moderns won't remain moderns forever. It is hilarious when people start bashing moderns. I wonder if the same happened back in the 1940s and 1950s - heck even the 1960s! Imagine having a set of PR and MS69 and 70s from the 1950s! Heh >>
It is impossible to compare modern collectors today with those of 30 years ago or longer since NO ONE ever paid $100's or $1000's for a modern coin in the old days because somebody who cannot grade consistently told them that one piece was nicer then the other. That is the point that many people wish did not exist when they whine because somebody bashed modern coin collecting.
You will find very few posts on the board where people bash someone for collecting modern coins, what you will find is people bashing the over inflated prices people pay for modern coins when the collector themselves cannot really tell the difference between grades. That is especially true for coins that if resubmitted today would not even come back the same grade because of the inconsistent grading that you find in ALL slabs.
<< <i> I always will prefer a nice example of a rare coin over a hi grade example of a common coin. My type of collector may be dying out.
>>
Collectors will always seek rarity in any of its forms.
But this belies the fact that modern rarity are priced much lower than classic rarities as well. Important
moderns with tiny mintages invariably sell for less than about $50,000. Comparable classics would some-
times sell for millions. Very scarce and less important moderns can sell for less than a few thousand.
Rare varieties will sell for as little as $1000.
Even regular issues which are distressinly common are sometimes common only in grades like VG or Fine
and these can be harder to actually lay hands on than most bashers imagine. Try finding a 1970 quarter
in any condition. Well more than 100,000,000 were minted but they weren't saved and the coins in cir-
culation have suffered heavy attrition. Yes, with patience a nice F will be found but if you want better
you'll have to find one of the mint sets. These sets have been destroyed in huge quantities and there
aren't the sort of quantity to supply mass markets. An unc 1970 quarter is far scarcer than a unc '50-D nickel
and the '50-D nickel once got up to about $150 in todays money. The cost of the overpriced, overhyped,
and overbought '70 quarter? It wholesales at 45c!!!!!!!!! The only difference since even their face values
are similar when adjusted for inflation is that the '70 quarter is available in low grade in circulation if any-
one looked and the '70 quarter has always been considered uncollectible because it's made of clad.
It's ironic that this coin does rarely appear as a spectacular PL high grade coin. There were a mere handful
minted and don't count on being able to still find one after all these years. There are no BU rolls and the
mint sets have been destroyed in large numbers and many of the survivors picked over.
The point is simply that not only is beauty in the eye of the beholder, but to a large extent, so too is com-
moness. If no one wants something with a population of one than it is truly common. If everyone clamors
for something with a population in the hundreds than it is scarce indeed.
My guess is still that more collectors will come to see moderns as collectibles and not only will an unc 1970
quarter become unavailable for less than a dollar but so too will a nice VG.
what you will find is people bashing the over inflated prices people pay for SLABBED GA-GA GRADE tag modern coins where most all of the value in in the plastic slab
the collector themselves cannot really tell the difference between grades.
That is especially true for coins modern post 1964 proof/ms 69 70 that if resubmitted today would not even come back the same grade because of the inconsistent grading that you find in ALL slabs.
<< <i>You will find very few to NO posts on the board where people bash someone for collecting modern coins, >>
I beg to differ. Certainly the comments against moderns, their collectors, and dealers
have been greatly tempered in the past couple years and such comments remaining
are usually well though out and have at least some basis in fact.
<< <i>
what you will find is people bashing the over inflated prices people pay for SLABBED GA-GA GRADE tag modern coins where most all of the value in in the plastic slab >>
As usual there is the exception that proves the rule. This mindless drivel even appears
in some sig lines.
<< <i>
the collector themselves cannot really tell the difference between grades. >>
Perhaps this is true if trying to spot the difference between a typical PR-69 and a typical
PR-70 for many collectors, but those who can't see the difference between MS-65 and MS-67
might be better off collecting rocks or minerals. It can be much harder trying to spot diff-
erences in classic coins since these can have many different surface characteristics and
problems picked up over the eons but this is usually not the case with moderns. Even a
beginner should be able to see the magnitude of the difference between MS-65 and MS-66
though he may not know exactly what the criteria are.
<< <i> That is especially true for coins modern post 1964 proof/ms 69 70 that if resubmitted today would not even come back the same grade because of the inconsistent grading that you find in ALL slabs.
>>
There are no regular issue MS-70 moderns. There are a tiny handful of MS-69. All of the MS-70
and most of the MS-69's are ultramodern. It's no great secret that there may be some changing
of standards in all slabs. How does it follow that moderns are uncollectible for this reason but ga ga
crusty classics are especially desirable for this reason?
There is nothing compelling anyone to collect anything. Though there are some who seem to
detest the fact that coins, bullion, and anything else they didn't buy might have the audacity
to increase in value.
2. "Monster Toners"
3. Minor "Modern Errors" ("Speared Bison" and other modern die breaks)
4. Modern registry sets
I think it's a loaded question. The modern top pops are certainly here to stay, the prices will be cyclical, but the collector appeal and fun in completing a top pop set will always remain.
Same thing with Monster toners. They have always been popular, this is not a fad. If the prices get away from the collector base, then they will pull back, but the demand will always be there.
Modern errors (varieties, I think you mean - errors are striking and planchet defects) have a big following. Look at the huge interest in the WI extra leaf quarters. It reached well outside the hobby. Sure, there are people who don't want anything to do with them, but this variety has invigorated variety collecting more than you can imagine. ebay sure helps this market (errors too).
Modern registry collecting is entrenched in the competitiveness of the collector spirit. It will not go away.
Camelot