HAS THE LOW HANGING FRUIT ALL BEEN PICKED? -Revisted.
cladking
Posts: 28,742 ✭✭✭✭✭
There is a great old Thread about whether or not there are still bargains left in the coin
market and moderns in particular.
But now a new question comes to mind in light of the fact that it looks as though the
orchard is becoming decidedly picked over. There are only a few web sources remain-
ing for mint sets or any other non-proof circulation issue raw moderns at bid based
levels. These coins have been widely available since 1965 at prices which are essent-
ially only 10% to 50% over bid. Bid has usually been based mostly on face value. Now
almost all sources for such coins are selling retail at prices from about 50% over ask to
as high as triple bid.
In the past, there wasn't enough demand for raw moderns to absorb all these mint sets
and rolls at prices much higher than face value so they ended up being searched and put
into circulation. Most demand ultimately came from retailers who were assembling date
mint mark/ denomination sets for retail and these sold for quite low prices.
Now there is a small demand for intact sets and rolls and there is great demand among
individual collectors for the specific coins in these sets (or rolls). Local shops, for the main
part, have very small supplies of such coins because of increased drawdown to retail sales
and more selling to wholesalers to capitalize on higher prices. An individual could probably
clean out every set of a cheaper date on the market for less than $100,000.
This means that for the first time most of these coins are actually selling at retail prices and
that total sales are in serious danger of exceeding the supply of sets flowing onto the market.
Five years ago there was a surprisingly large overhang of raw coins which supressed the the
increases which occured in these markets when demand soared as a result of the increased
attention engendered by the states quarters program, but this overhang should be gone.
It's probably a foregone conclusion that we'll now see another increase in raw modern prices
and this one might be more significant than the last.
With both the low hanging fruit and most of the rest of it now picked where will the shortfall
in supply be made up? Will collectors balk at paying $2 for a 1974 dime in BU and seek them
in circulation? Will they resist gems at a few dollars each?
market and moderns in particular.
But now a new question comes to mind in light of the fact that it looks as though the
orchard is becoming decidedly picked over. There are only a few web sources remain-
ing for mint sets or any other non-proof circulation issue raw moderns at bid based
levels. These coins have been widely available since 1965 at prices which are essent-
ially only 10% to 50% over bid. Bid has usually been based mostly on face value. Now
almost all sources for such coins are selling retail at prices from about 50% over ask to
as high as triple bid.
In the past, there wasn't enough demand for raw moderns to absorb all these mint sets
and rolls at prices much higher than face value so they ended up being searched and put
into circulation. Most demand ultimately came from retailers who were assembling date
mint mark/ denomination sets for retail and these sold for quite low prices.
Now there is a small demand for intact sets and rolls and there is great demand among
individual collectors for the specific coins in these sets (or rolls). Local shops, for the main
part, have very small supplies of such coins because of increased drawdown to retail sales
and more selling to wholesalers to capitalize on higher prices. An individual could probably
clean out every set of a cheaper date on the market for less than $100,000.
This means that for the first time most of these coins are actually selling at retail prices and
that total sales are in serious danger of exceeding the supply of sets flowing onto the market.
Five years ago there was a surprisingly large overhang of raw coins which supressed the the
increases which occured in these markets when demand soared as a result of the increased
attention engendered by the states quarters program, but this overhang should be gone.
It's probably a foregone conclusion that we'll now see another increase in raw modern prices
and this one might be more significant than the last.
With both the low hanging fruit and most of the rest of it now picked where will the shortfall
in supply be made up? Will collectors balk at paying $2 for a 1974 dime in BU and seek them
in circulation? Will they resist gems at a few dollars each?
tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
0
Comments
one or two year sets per collector though, not a bunch of them.
Maybe one set for each of the kids etc...
Now they are being viewed as an excellent source for gradeable coins.
So i think your right, they probably will continue to go up in value.
It's about time though, a lot of these sets haven't moved for years.
As far proof/mint set coins that are loose. I traded another forum member a
whole bag of them that i had on the bst last week. They sat there a few days
and i ended up trading for just over face. I didn't see any high demand for them.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Low hanging fruit? Is this a thread about Marty?
Russ, NCNE >>
Looking for alot of crap.
<< <i>Proof and mint sets are some of the most hoarded things out there.
one or two year sets per collector though, not a bunch of them.
Maybe one set for each of the kids etc...
Now they are being viewed as an excellent source for gradeable coins.
So i think your right, they probably will continue to go up in value.
It's about time though, a lot of these sets haven't moved for years.
As far proof/mint set coins that are loose. I traded another forum member a
whole bag of them that i had on the bst last week. They sat there a few days
and i ended up trading for just over face. I didn't see any high demand for them. >>
Even if it's true that these are widely hoarded The fact is that huge numbers of them
have been destroyed and the rate at which they've been coming onto the market has
been declining steadily except fot a five year period which seems to be rapidly drawing
to a close. While demand is still not large it is still growing while this supply is shrinking.
If it's true that there are some mint sets still being hoarded then they will come out and
stop any increase before it gets going too far. But the absolute numbers remaining are
simply getting down to the point that they can't satisfy demand at current levels.
One has to suspect that if increasing numbers of people desire a coin like a 1974 dime
then a new supply will have to be found and there simply can't be one. They could find
an example in circulation but it will be heavily worn. Rolls of coins like this are exceeding-
ly scarce and most of those which are seen were asembled from mint sets in the very re-
cent past. When the supply of mint sets is too small to satisfy demand there will be no
more of these BU rolls because the mint sets will cost more than its parts and availability
will be severely reduced.
There are three hundred million people in this country. It wouldn't be surprising if a higher
percentage of them have at least some interest in these coins than the percentage of
people at this website. Of course, this is in reference to nice BU and choice BU clad rather
than to gems and pop tops. It's not the high grade coins that might get decidely more dif-
ficult to locate; it's the MS-60's. There are not enough of the top coins to satisfy a mass
market and never were. There used to be enough of the typical coins to last a thousand
years but they are gone.
Now what?
<< <i>Cladking.........shhhhhh!
Sorry. I'm just curious if anyone has asked these questions before or put any though into the subject.
<< <i>Low hanging fruit? Is this a thread about Marty?
Russ, NCNE >>
hmmmm...
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
<< <i><< Low hanging fruit? Is this a thread about Marty?
Russ, NCNE >>
hmmmm... >>
It happens to old guys like him.
Russ, NCNE
CK,
Availability isn't an issue for some of the common stuff yet, but the price is moving on all the benchmark stuff. 83 CoinWorld "mint sets" are routinely selling for $80+. They were $35 two years ago. Certain undergrade clads are fetching big money. Type II 72 Ikes in 64 are $400+. They're $50+ in AU. PR68 Dcam silver Kennedys are fetching a premium. I watched a partial set of clad Washingtons 65-79 including proofs sell for $140 on Ebay last week. Those are all signs of change. IMO More collectors = more pressure on supply. It may appear unlimited to non-participants, but it's obviously increasingly in demand.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I still think regular old BU clad coins are kind of boring and will always be cheap and available. "Special" coins with varieties or errors or whatnot will always be "neat" and in demand, as will the superior gem "top pops" for the registry guys, but somehow I have a feeling normal unc. clad coins will be available in quantity for low prices any time folks want to collect them.
BU 1974 dimes for 20 cents each
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I just talked to Chiquita. He's on the turnpike headed home, and was mumbling about a 66 half. >>
The doofus called me from a bar last night and was making chicken noises.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Will collectors balk at paying $2 for a 1974 dime in BU and seek them in circulation? Will they resist gems at a few dollars each?
I still think regular old BU clad coins are kind of boring and will always be cheap and available. "Special" coins with varieties or errors or whatnot will always be "neat" and in demand, as will the superior gem "top pops" for the registry guys, but somehow I have a feeling normal unc. clad coins will be available in quantity for low prices any time folks want to collect them.
BU 1974 dimes for 20 cents each >>
Exactly the point.
These swamp the demand and can be purchased for 20c each. The '74 mint set is available
for only a little more than face value and much of the premium is in the Ikes and halfs. Also
the odds of finding a DDO D half and quarters are all worth premiums. This means the price
of clads has always been suppressed by the ready availability of mint sets. These mint sets
were made by the millions and consumed by the dozens over a couple of generations. Now,
all evidence seems to be saying the mint sets aren't going to be around a lot longer and this
is happening just at a time that some of these coins are getting demand for the first time ever.
One can get the '74 dime in the mint set for what is essentially face value whether it's a superb
gem or typical. But when these mint sets are no longer readily available the BU rolls will disap-
pear almost immediately since the sets are the source of the rolls.
It would be surprising if there are even 1 million 1974 dimes still surviving in unc and relatively
few of these are still in the sets. I don't believe collectors will balk at paying $2 for such a coin.
In light of the fact that a much more common '50-D nickel went to $130 in todays money, it takes
little imagination to see such a coin go to a few dollars.
Yet, they can be purchased even today in the mint set for about 10c !!!
It also seems likely that if these prices head up that collectors and others will start giving many
of the other coins with similar history a much harder look. I would contend that while people have
been concentrating on the low hanging fruit that much of the rest of the orchard has already been
picked clean.
<< <i>
U.S. Mint 981306
1966 Special Mint Set (SMS)
1966 Special Mint Set (SMS) NR!
$27.50 > View product details @ GoAntiques.com! >>
{this is about 300% of CDN bid}
I have no idea why Bob Vila is selling mint sets but this is becoming increasingly common.
More and more sets are going to supply inventories and satisfy customer demand and it
simply seems that at the prices they are bringing that the sellers will replenish thier in-
ventory as it runs lower. It is this sort of demand coming from many thousands of collectors
at the grass roots which is about to turn these markets on their head. It's not the demand
from "serious" collectors and registry participants nor is it speculative demand. These coins
are being sold at retail and this is new. Indeed, the first retail activity started only about
a year or two ago and now this is the typical way that raw moderns are sold.
Even at retail prices the individual coins in the sets are still very affordable. It's hard to believe
there will be many people who give up trying to complete their sets because of high costs so
these markets are not dependent on costs or price. So if the sole source of a 1974 dime
pushes much higher in coming weeks, will people balk at paying $2 for one?
If a '74 dime is really worth $2 then what would be the value of a 1974 mint set? What would
be the value of nice gem Philly dimes?
TTT
TTT
Coin collecting is, for me, truly a hobby since I make my living in another field. It is also a leisure activity. The money I devote to the hobby is discretionary and if I take a loss when I sell, it will not matter in the big picture (though hopefully with my continuing coin education from the boards and elsewhere, I will be able to pick out coins that will hold, if not increase in, value).
I collected as a kid and when I look at the coins I plucked from circulation, I am impressed with how nice they are. Some people do not think much of post 1965 clad coins or for post 1933 coins for that matter, believing that they are common "widgets" which will never be worth more than face value. For me, even though I have been acquiring some "classic" coins, I still enjoy looking for and finding "modern" coins, including clad coins, from circulation, shows and shops for face value or pennies over face value.
If what CladKing talks about in this and other similar posts (demand for moderns outstripping supply, thus price rises for same) happens (now or in the next 10 years), I will be able to look at many of the very nice MS moderns and CAMDCAM 1950-1971 Proof and SMS coins I have acquired over the past few years and not only appreciate their beauty but appreciate the fact that they have gone up in value.
I seem to recall that one of the "name" collectors (i.e. Eliasberg) had indicated that he was collecting, at face value, MS clad coins thinking that they represented a good opportunity for profit. If collecting moderns is good enough for one of the "name" collectors, it is good enough for me.
here's another thing to consider.
A lot of the classics are accounted for by type collectors such as many on this board.
Probably very few people relatively have a "complete run" of a given series.
A real run up in modern ms/proof individual coins would rely heavily on date and mint collectors looking
to complete the entire series.
Merely to rely on type collectors there would be an infinite supply.
the unmolested proof/mint set imo probably stands to run up the most in the near future anyway.
not sure if it makes any real sense, but just a thought.
ps. BOB Villa, let me get some nails, drywall and oh yeah, a 2003 silver proof set. That's strange
how did you find that?
<< <i>cladking,
here's another thing to consider.
A lot of the classics are accounted for by type collectors such as many on this board.
Probably very few people relatively have a "complete run" of a given series.
A real run up in modern ms/proof individual coins would rely heavily on date and mint collectors looking
to complete the entire series.
Merely to rely on type collectors there would be an infinite supply. >>
Very true and this is the first of the real weaknesses of moderns I've seen listed on these boards. And,
no, I don't intend to list any more at the current time. Even so, there are many moderns which would be rel-
atively unaffected by a trend to type collecting. The bicentennial coins are a one year type coin and while widely
hoarded in mint state they are as scarce as most others of that era in high grades. There is no evidence that
even the current type collectors have been seeking these in high grades!!! Many of the commems would also
stnd as type coins. The '65 nickel is a one year type coin (no init, no mm), There are numerous types and mules
in the clad Washington series, there numerous types of '82 nickels, '82 cents. Many of the dies are recut nearly every year in recent years, so there might be demand for the more minor "types".
I suspect that classics are collected more widely as type simply because they are so much more valuable. Most
mint state moderns are not going to such levels in the foreseeable future so it's less likely that this trend will
affect these coins.
<< <i>
the unmolested proof/mint set imo probably stands to run up the most in the near future anyway.
not sure if it makes any real sense, but just a thought. >>
Original sets may well respond to the shortage first since the demand for these is more specific; a collector de-
sires a 1974 mint set so he can add the Philly dime to his set, or so he can have an original set for the future.
But, these sets are ultimately the sole source for many of the mint state moderns. If it's true that they won't
be as widely available then the price of the other ways to acquire the coins should respond very quickly.
<< <i>
ps. BOB Villa, let me get some nails, drywall and oh yeah, a 2003 silver proof set. That's strange
how did you find that? >>
I type "mint set" into the search engines from time to time. In Sept, '01 there were only eight or ten sellers
of these with up to date pricing. Most all of them were selling the sets at around 150% of bid. Over the last
five years the number of sellers have skyrocketed and only last year there appeared a new kind of seller; the
retailer offering them at prices far over bid. Now, almost all the sellers in and out of the hobby are offering
the sets at far higher prices.
This isn't mere anecdotal evidence since you can also see the raw moderns flowing out of the coin shops.
I do not believe there's much overhang to stop these markets if they head up. Even if I'm wrong, the over
hang should be chewed up in fairly short order.
TTT