gold....................GOLD!! will it $500 before dec 31????

michael · November 21, 2005 1:55PM

and will you buy a choice au three dollar gold piece?/ better date?? proof??

or a saint in ms 63? 64? 65?

pr a gem unc type three one dollar gold?? pcgs?? ngc??

or ???????????????/

DUIGUY · November 21, 2005 2:15PM

I will most likely hold on any gold coin purchases for a spell , unless it is something I just can't resist !

Freak1c · November 21, 2005 2:17PM

I will most likely hold on any gold coin purchases for a spell , unless it is something I just can't resist !

Ditto

Tom

Deadhorse · November 21, 2005 3:19PM

<< I will most likely hold on any gold coin purchases for a spell , unless it is something I just can't resist !

>>

Buy on the dips. Towards the end of the year, PMs regularly suffer a drop due to profit takers selling off.

If I see a drop, and I expect to in a month or less, then I will purchase modern bullion. I'll add a few ounces as I can afford it.

coynclecter · November 21, 2005 4:25PM

Its true that Mint State gold coins tend to go up with gold. This is because the root cause of golds increase has been inflation of the US dollar. In this case gold has gone into its second up cycle where it's value is decoupling with the dollar. Gold is going up even as the dollar gets stronger. This is because other currencies of the world are also falling and the supply of gold is getting stretched.

At some point gold will continue with its rise even as the dollar strengthens , interest rates increase and recession sets in. Those with adjustable rates and home equity lines will look to sell off US coins to make thier payments. The main consumers of gold now, in India and China will have no interest in US mint state gold coins at 50X face.

Don't expect the US gold coin market to take off in sync with the worldwide demand for gold. If you want gold , buy it, not generic mint state coins.

Deadhorse · November 21, 2005 5:18PM

<< Its true that Mint State gold coins tend to go up with gold. This is because the root cause of golds increase has been inflation of the US dollar. In this case gold has gone into its second up cycle where it's value is decoupling with the dollar. Gold is going up even as the dollar gets stronger. This is because other currencies of the world are also falling and the supply of gold is getting stretched.

At some point gold will continue with its rise even as the dollar strengthens , interest rates increase and recession sets in. Those with adjustable rates and home equity lines will look to sell off US coins to make thier payments. The main consumers of gold now, in India and China will have no interest in US mint state gold coins at 50X face.

Don't expect the US gold coin market to take off in sync with the worldwide demand for gold. If you want gold , buy it, not generic mint state coins. >>

That's exactly correct. As an example, in the big silver run up in 79-80 a high end Morgan went up considerably, but nowhere near the rate of silver bullion itself. A common 21 Morgan was worth it's melt value and no more. In a sense, it actually lost it's numismatic value even if it were mint state.

There may come a point in time here where trading off generic Saints for pure bullion will be a wise move from a financial standpoint.

Outhaul · November 21, 2005 9:32PM

no

roadrunner · November 22, 2005 1:53AM

I would suspect that even up to $600-800/oz that generic saints will out perform gold. This new PA2 AML program could toss a wrench into the equation.

Certainly by $1000/oz one should be into mostly bullion items.

Let's also recall the 1979-80 Numismatic market. Gem type coins
performed as well as gold in those final stages. And they weren't even made of gold. Many gem coins went up 5X or more from 1977 to 1980. That far exceeded the gold increase. So let's not be so quick to proclaim that coins cannot keep that pace. I was not into gem gold at that time but I would suspect that they did just as well or BETTER than the price of gold in that 3 year span. Considering that most anything technically MS63 back then was "called" gem 65, also tosses some confusion into the equation.

roadrunner

eagle7 · November 22, 2005 1:58AM

Michael, Ive already said on your other thread that is will hit 500 before dec 31. As for your other questions, all collectible coins will move much higher but especially collectible gold coins. But the biggest movers near the top will be the ms64, 65 and 66 common date saints. That is because all of the people who do not collect coins will find plenty of people hawking them for sale and they will be available in enough quantity to actually buy. JMHO.

Deadhorse · November 22, 2005 2:38AM

<< I would suspect that even up to $600-800/oz that generic saints will out perform gold. This new PA2 AML program could toss a wrench into the equation.

Certainly by $1000/oz one should be into mostly bullion items.

roadrunner >>

Yeah, I agree with your assesment.

I had to throw in the qualifier "may" come a time. At some point one might be able to trade 3 generic Saints(MS63) for more actual gold. Say 3 at 2.7 ounces total for 4 ounces of bullion, or some other combination, perhaps 4.5 to 5 ounces.

The PA2 creates total confusion. No way to know how that is going to work out, but it's a sure bet that it will harm the people who already follow the law and do almost nothing about it's intended target. Our government at work.

roadrunner · November 22, 2005 2:44AM

The entire MS63/64 Saint population (PCGS/NGC) could be bought for $300 MILL assuming you could find it all at once. Works out to be $1 for each person in the US. Do that math with currency, gold eagles, bars, etc. Toss in MS62's or even $20 Libs in 62-63 and you still don't have even a BILLION dollars to buy the entire $20 gold generic market. The entire WORLD gold bullion market is still only on the order of hundreds of BILLIONs of dollars. The Saints and Libs are less than 1/3 of 1% of that. What if only one person out of a hundred decided to go for a Saint rather than a US eagle? A collectible piece of history vs. a slug of gold?

Bottom line is that the market is thin where the slightest increase in demand would have huge effects. It still boggles my mind that a historic, near gem MS64 (not just BU), 80 year old gold coin can be purchased for 1.6X melt. You can't say that for silver or for copper by any stretch. Even gem 65 Saints are only 2.7X melt.

1958 BU wheat cent by the roll would cost you 7.5X face value.
1881-s BU Morgan dollars by the roll sell for 3.8X their melt value.

I think I like the value in MS64 Saints at 1.6X melt. But no one can say for sure which gold products will feel the heat more down the road.

roadrunner

michael · November 22, 2005 2:52AM

The entire MS63/64 Saint population (PCGS/NGC) could be bought for $300 MILL assuming you could find it all at once. Works out to be $1 for each person in the US. Do that math with currency, gold eagles, bars, etc. Toss in MS62's or even $20 Libs in 62-63 and you still don't have even a BILLION dollars to buy the entire $20 gold generic market. The entire US gold bullion market is still only on the order of hundreds of BILLIONs of dollars. The Saints and Libs are less than 1/3 of 1% of that. What if only one person out of a hundred decided to go for a Saint rather than a US eagle? A collectible piece of history vs. a slug of gold?

Bottom line is that the market is thin where the slightest increase in demand would have huge effects. It still boggles my mind that a historic, near gem MS64 (not just BU), 80 year old gold coin can be purchased for 1.6X melt. You can't say that for silver or for copper by any stretch. Even gem 65 Saints are only 2.7X melt.

1958 BU wheat cent by the roll would cost you 7.5X face value.
1881-s BU Morgan dollars by the roll sell for 3.8X their melt value.

I think I like the value in MS64 Saints at 1.6X melt. But no one can say for sure which gold products will feel the heat more down the road.

roadrunner

and the pre 1933 saints where actually used as currency and are historical and extremely beautiful muchmoreso then any of the current modern bullion crap issued by many govts and you cant make any more saints dated 75 or more years ago

also i think that ms 63 65 saints nice better date threes and also more esoteric rarer gold coins proof gold are even better opportunity plays for the long term

michael · November 22, 2005 2:53AM

eagle7
Collector

Posts: 1246
Joined: Dec 2002
Tuesday November 22, 2005 11:58 AM (NEW!)

Michael, Ive already said on your other thread that is will hit 500 before dec 31. As for your other questions, all collectible coins will move much higher but especially collectible gold coins

coynclecter · November 22, 2005 4:41AM

When I mentioned Mint state gold I didnt mean ms63 saints at 1100 or so. I meant MS65 eagles or double eagles in the $4000 range. If gold goes up to 1000 bucks an ounce I just cant see these at $$10,000, with an ounce or less or gold content.

There is still a large supply of most mint state gold and its a US collectable. A lot of people will look to sell when the Equity line ARM goes up.

jpkinla · November 22, 2005 5:15AM

We are at $495 in after hours trading now.....I say we hit $500 by Friday!

Torrero · November 22, 2005 5:42AM

So whAT IS the best way to own gold? I'm obviously new to this chat room but I'm trying to get some good unbiased advice. I'm currently own some rare silver coins (and some old gold coins) that were left to me by my dad but don't know if I should keep them or trade them. He bought thm from a number of dealers and auctions during the 1980's.

Jake

ttown · November 22, 2005 5:47AM

Will with the new law about to take effect in 2006 where your going to have to report any gold coin under 50% melt I'd say MS65 saints (maybe MS64's-close). That is unless you want it reported to the IRS and then you can get just about anything.

Torrero · November 22, 2005 6:38AM

What 2006 law that makes us report gold?

coynclecter · November 22, 2005 6:55AM

<< What 2006 law that makes us report gold? >>

OH grasshopper, remember that although we are investors or collectors, we must all "Act" as "Patriots" "Too".

Torrero · November 22, 2005 7:23AM

I'm familiar with the Patriot Act but was not aware that it changed things regarding gold. Can you relay details?

Deadhorse · November 22, 2005 7:36AM

<< I'm familiar with the Patriot Act but was not aware that it changed things regarding gold. Can you relay details? >>

RoadRunner linked a 26 page PDF file on another thread. It's the Fed's way of saying we want to know all of your business and we want to make legitimate business people jump through hoops. Patriot Act 2 is the issue here.

It's also another way of discouraging people from owning real wealth, I'm sure if they could confiscate all precious metals from the peons, err, the citizens, and get away with it, they would.

It's so much easier to control people if we can control their actions and what they can own.

roadrunner · November 22, 2005 11:02AM

My link was only a few pages. Not much to read. The more people I talk to about this, the more I realize no one seems to have all the answers. Even ex-IRS experts seem to be taking a far more conservative stance on this than the actual law reads.

roadrunner

gold....................GOLD!! will it $500 before dec 31????

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