Abundance of new coin books: Sign of the market top?
RYK
Posts: 35,800 ✭✭✭✭✭
I am not from the doom-and-gloom camp, but I would like to make one of observation. The number of coin books coming to press and to the market, compared to what has been in recent years, is nothing short of staggering. Whitman and Bowers/ANR have both revved up the printing presses both general and specialty coin collectors and investors. In addition, there are several other significant new numismatic tomes in the works, as well as updates of previous editions. While it is fabulous for collectors to have access to a lot more updated information, it reminds me a bit of the explosion of investing books in the late 1990's.
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it seems many collectable markets go through that stage where reference
material abounds. next year it sits in the 60% off bin.
on the other hand, US gold collectors seem to have well structured pricing points
and a solid foundation for the value of their coins. The values are what they are
because of solid demand over the "years" for them.
will a common half eagle ever sell for less than 150 in AU58?
will a crusty D minted half eagle in XF ever sell for less than 1500 again?
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
a market top. When the ratio of investment books to speciality books gets high also
it might be a better indicator.
"Perhaps the number of books about investment in coins would be a good indicator of
a market top. When the ratio of investment books to speciality books gets high also
it might be a better indicator."
I agree. Sure sign.
<< <i>I wish somebody would update Breen's Encyclopedia. >>
I can't help but wonder if Breen's unfortunate personal life has resulted in no one wanting to touch this job with a ten foot pole.
<< <i> I can't help but wonder if Breen's unfortunate personal life has resulted in no one wanting to touch this job with a ten foot pole. >>
I doubt it. Perhaps the herculean task of actually doing the work might have something more to do with it.
There were a lot more coin investment books in the 60s and 70s - I think the recent burst of literary activity is actually quite healthy, representing new research that is collector oriented. It's aimed at the expanding hobby base, not the get-rich-quick crowd.
People can and do pay "stupid" money for nice coins, and be left holding the bag. If there are only two bidders, bidding up a certain coin, removing one of them might mean a big drop down at the next auction, unless more people step up to the plate. People can also buy marginal coins for the grade, with the same result. This is a classic new collector mistake, looking for the cheapest price for a given grade--not all coins of the same slabbed grade are equal. These things can always happen and with a general upswing, the market can make those mistakes go away. When the music stops, those kind of mistakes can be devastating and there is no place to hide. In my opinion, we are less than halfway into the tune with lots more upside to come. That said, for serious investment purposes, coins and hard assets should be a tiny percentage of a well diversified portfolio.
It is hard to imagine...you cannot even get a crusty VF for $1500 these days.
i assume it takes quite a few years of research, if not a decade or more, plus all the writing and rewriting for a book to come to the presses. that would mean that many of the works we're seeing were begun back in the 1990's. i doubt seriously that the books you're thinking of were put together in the last 2-3 years and rushed to print to avoid getting out after some presumed crash-----more than likely just a coincidence. just thinking of QDB and having nothing factual to base the opinion on, he's entirely too involved in too many things to be able to rush a book out in 1-2 years just to meet a dealine that might be looming ahead which would kill sales.
you might consider asking Chuck Daughtrey---coppercoins---how long it took him to get his project out, but wait.........................looking at the Foreward in the book it seems he began the task of assembling everything together in 1999 while he had started the project about 10 years before that if i understand the Introduction correctly.
my conclusion is that it takes 5-10 years to research the book topic, write the text and have the book published, while it only takes 5-10 seconds to conclude that the end is near!!!
So it is just coincidence that there are new books coming to press over the last six months and over the next six months on Type coins, Shield and Liberty nickels, Barber coinage, Seated coinage, Merc dimes, $3's, $1 gold coins, New Orleans gold, Indian and FE cents, commems, colonials...shall I go on?
Furthermore, though Chuck may have spent 5-10 years working on his book, others spend far less time. I doubt that the spectacular book on $3's took longer than 6 months for the actual writing. Experienced authors (numismatic and otherwise) are far more efficient.
While I agree that it may or may not have any relationship tothe stage in the numismatic cycle, I could not help but notice the large group of books being published over a one year span. (BTW, I plan to buy nearly all of them--probably will pass on Shield and Liberty nickels
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
some of the authors may figure this is as good a time as any to be getting a book out but i doubt it has to do with "the top" since they would have had to be thinking about that when they started the project. in other words, i would have had to think that in 1999 "i had better get busy because by the time my book is ready the end will be near."
<< <i>I doubt that the spectacular book on $3's took longer than 6 months for the actual writing. >>
Somewhere I read QDB was using research assistants to gather historical auction data on gold, this was several years back. It's quite possible the $3 book itself was cranked out in six months, but I think he had a lot of material in the back pocket, so to speak, before the project started.
I just got a publication offer for a book that I began researching in 2001, not that I'm a typical data point by any means, but yes, the lead time can be quite long for some projects.