USA Coin hobby faces biggest test since Long Beach 1990.

oreville · October 30, 2005 6:21AM

The Heritage auction that has just been moved to Dallas will be the biggest test this coin market has seen since Long Beach 1990.

The auctions with less than a week to go had been moved half way across the country without the ability of most bidders to book airline flights to attend it (many airlines now demand a 7 day advance purchase).

Furthermore, there is no longer a coin bourse show to support the auction.

If this auction does well in Dallas, then I expect the lid to be blown off the top of this market and expect a boom coin market, the likes of what I have not seen since late 1978.

The is the biggest bellweather sign I have seen in 15 years.

The X-factor is now CLEARLY the INTERNET !

roadrunner · October 30, 2005 6:32AM

Oreville, the Morse coins are a big hunk of the auctions and they should do well even in Dallas. The Signature Session lots are more at risk. But if anyone really wants to bid there are dozens of auction reps who would be availble to view and buy for them. I think the coins will do ok even with just dealer and internet bidding. The dealers that bid strong at auction will go wherever they need to.
The absence of the next tier buyers who are hoping to pick something off cheap and won't attend, won't be missed imo.

I wish there were more neat coins in Platinum Night in the type coin arena. While Legend's market report lists seated and Barber as somewhat weak, the nicer coins are not showing up either. When they do, the CDN would then follow up with a summary of "how strong seated and Barber coins" were that week. Gee, how observant.

But you have made a good point. This will be a good test and there's plenty of money still out there not yet earmarked for FUN.

roadrunner

mozin · October 30, 2005 7:00AM

I just hope now I have a better chance to win lots since the auction has been moved to Dallas.

CarlWohlforth · October 30, 2005 7:04AM

I agree with half the assessment. If the results are very good it really would bode well for the market. However if they are not good it may have more to do with the logistical problems mentioned rather than a weakening of the market.

291fifth · October 30, 2005 7:09AM

I wonder how happy the consignors are about the situation. If I were a minor consignor I would feel very ill at ease.

RYK · October 30, 2005 7:12AM

I just hope now I have a better chance to win lots since the auction has been moved to Dallas.

Me, too.

Unfortunately, Heritage probably could have relocated this auction to Timbuktu, and it would not have made a difference. The Morse Collection is a hot property and the associated auction should draw enough major players that the relocation will not matter. A better test would be to try to relocate one of the tired, nameless Long Beach auctions.

oreville · October 30, 2005 7:14AM

Carl: I do not believe I stated if the auction results are poor, it would signal a weakening of the market.

fc · October 30, 2005 7:23AM

after all, without a booming coin market i will lose interest and stop collecting.

oreville · October 30, 2005 7:30AM

By the way, I very much prefer slow boring markets!! Heck, I would be a big buyer in those kind of markets!!!

fc · October 30, 2005 7:55AM

What is the measuring stick to determine if the coin "hobby/market" is successful or growing?

Record setting prices on super keys is the indicator? (I hope not.)

How about attendance of coin shows? (Poor marketing in NH is painfully obvious to my age category.)

Allowing the dealers to tell us if they made money this quarter? (Heh.)

It appears to me, it is difficult thing to measure the happiness of coin collectors and
what keeps bringing them back to the tables.

rambling thoughts i am trying to figure out due to this interesting thread.

CarlWohlforth · October 30, 2005 8:25AM

<Carl: I do not believe I stated if the auction results are poor, it would signal a weakening of the market. >

A bellweather, to me, is an indicator of both up and down markets. Anyway I get what you are saying and agree. I also understand the Legend/CoinGuy1 thing too. I think they both make valid points. Sorry, I wish I could disagree more, it would make my post more interesting.

fcloud · October 30, 2005 8:29AM

Nice topic. I think the location won't make much of a difference. There are too many (not a bad thing) nice coins in this sale for them not to set records.

MrEureka · October 30, 2005 9:48AM

For all it's worth, I only found out an hour ago that the sale has been relocated. It will cost me a more than a few bucks to change my flights and hotels, but it hardly matters when you're talking about an opportunity to bid on $50 million in coins.

WTCG · October 30, 2005 11:15AM

Moving the West Palm Beach auction to Dallas will have no effect on prices realized. The serious buyers will all find a way to make it to Dallas or at least be present bidding via telephone.

Expect records to be shattered by next week. There will be no weakening of this market anytime soon.

mrearlygold · October 30, 2005 11:21AM

Some of the serious players have already seen the material and I don't think the move is going to be a negative .

Nap · October 30, 2005 12:30PM

It'd be ironic if the move causes the auction final values to go up because people that have changed flights and hotels now are less willing to spend more to ensure they make their trip worthwhile and not leave empty-handed.

There's a lot of talk about the appearance or lack thereof of "major players" etc. I think that is very misleading. Major players are not moving the market; if they were it would be indicative of an overinflated overhyped market. Not the case. This market is collector-driven. Sure there are some large outfits that tend to be pretty busy at auction time, but it's because in this market quality material can be moved. With the technology available, that's going to be the case no matter who makes it or doesn't make it to this auction.

jpkinla · October 30, 2005 12:34PM

I really think it is a complete waste of time for any of you to go to the auction. It is evident it wll be a complete failure so you may as well stay home. I will be happy to give a report to anyone AFTER the sale to confirm that prices were in fact weak.

I am attending just so the Heritage folks don't feel too badly about the sale.

RYK · October 30, 2005 12:41PM

I really think it is a complete waste of time for any of you to go to the auction...

Okay, you talked me out of it. I will stay home.

My bidding will be done by a representative instead.

ILikeDimes · October 30, 2005 1:42PM

There isn't one of you people that know if it will do BETTER in Dallas then it would have done in Florida. Just because the prices realized may set a new high(in Dallas), doesn't mean it could not have been higher had it remained in Florida.........JMO.

mercurydimeguy · October 31, 2005 1:38AM

In the coin industry (much like economics) there are basically 2 prevailing mindsets -- supply side and demand side.

If anything this upcoming sale has demonstrated is that just when the industry thinks there is dwindling supply of new material, voila, and fresh/new material comes up for sale.

This sale also demonstrates that there are rotations on the demand side -- meaning, things that were in demand the last 18-24 months have been satiated by supply (for the time being), and a different supply is now coming in to the market to satiate demand for different needs.

The market is not better or worst -- it just is, and it is different.

oreville · October 31, 2005 1:44AM

mercurydimeguy: I like your post. A very interesting observation. I think it is worthy of a separate thread and further analysis to see where it goes. I will give it further thought as well.

USA Coin hobby faces biggest test since Long Beach 1990.

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