A symptom of a flooded market....................
keets
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It's hard to not be cognizant of the increase in NGC holdered coins over the past year or two. I see no sign of the trend slowing. My perception is that PCGS holdered coins a one time outnumbered all other services that I'd see at a large show, as recently as early 2003. Currently there are times when I get to a dealer's showcase and the NGC's dominate, ditto for the overall numbers at the same show. This isn't to say that PCGS has slowed----have they??----but I assume we're seeing the fallout of an agreesive Marketing Campaign by NGC coupled with the 2004-early 2005 major PCGS backlog problem.
Speaking only for series' that I regularly search, NGC always seems like they've had a higher percentage of coins holdered at the hiogher grades. My impression is that they grade a bit less tight, collectors who are selling and dealers sense that and the market overall accepts it. That's just my gut feeling so it may be wrong. But I think that the end result we're now seeing is starting to prove me correct. The market can only bear so much, though.
The breaking point to me seems to be starting to show at dealer web-sites, many more NGC coins held for longer times. I assume that dealers can't hold out forever and remain competitive. Collectors and other dealers won't support an equal price for a perceived lesser product, so prices will eventually come down for the NGC flood coins. My wonder is when will that happen and how badly will it affect the overall market?? NGC has persisted in following a less restricted course than PCGS, willing to hold hands with HSN as well as almost every promotion that comes along. On the positive side, NGC also seems to be getting more of the larger collections consigned to them. It can be confusing and hard to sort out.
What do you think these trends bode for our future??
Al H.
Speaking only for series' that I regularly search, NGC always seems like they've had a higher percentage of coins holdered at the hiogher grades. My impression is that they grade a bit less tight, collectors who are selling and dealers sense that and the market overall accepts it. That's just my gut feeling so it may be wrong. But I think that the end result we're now seeing is starting to prove me correct. The market can only bear so much, though.
The breaking point to me seems to be starting to show at dealer web-sites, many more NGC coins held for longer times. I assume that dealers can't hold out forever and remain competitive. Collectors and other dealers won't support an equal price for a perceived lesser product, so prices will eventually come down for the NGC flood coins. My wonder is when will that happen and how badly will it affect the overall market?? NGC has persisted in following a less restricted course than PCGS, willing to hold hands with HSN as well as almost every promotion that comes along. On the positive side, NGC also seems to be getting more of the larger collections consigned to them. It can be confusing and hard to sort out.
What do you think these trends bode for our future??
Al H.
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I think that coins which would have ended-up in PCGS slabs a year ago, are now being set to NGC, due to the lower cost of slabbing. Thus, unless PCGS lowers prices, the trend will continue. Additionally, NGC may be " less tight" than PCGS, but not necessarily wrong.
i tend to agree that the closer to " the trunk" we get the higher the percentage of that tree's coins!!! i live in Northeast Ohio and whenever i get to Columbus/Dayton there are as many ANACS coins as anything else. we'll all get a taste of that next year when the Central States show is in Columbus.
i think it runs a bit deeper than that, though, because the phenomenon unfolded over a year or two and is now hard to not notice. there has always been certain coins that went to a certain service, with toned coins tending to go to NGC due to the white insert. as of late, it just seems that NGC has been getting a higher percentage of the market and i wonder if that will eventually catch up to them(and us).
al h.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
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imho ....My feeling if the coin is undergraded, then it really is a PQ coin...I ask for the value that I think the coin is worth....most times people who see the coin agree and pay the premium....
<< <i>"What do you think these trends bode for our future??"
I think that coins which would have ended-up in PCGS slabs a year ago, are now being set to NGC, due to the lower cost of slabbing. Thus, unless PCGS lowers prices, the trend will continue. >>
I think this is a very valid point Steve.
Looking for alot of crap.
edit 4 spelliN
<< <i>I've asked several dealers why they sell mostly NGC coins and every one told me they send their coins to NGC because they are tired of PCGS undergrading their coins. >>
As I said in another thread, I feel that there is now only one "top TPG." The market knows it and, as the market softens, a big price differential will develop. I already see it happening.
My feeling if the coin is undergraded, then it really is a PQ coin...I ask for the value that I think the coin is worth....most times people who see the coin agree and pay the premium....
I can see the high end NGC losing ground. I just eBayed a PR70UCAM commen that sold for $44
while the example PF70DCAM coin may not be a good one, let's look at these comments as a whole.
it's been discussed before that when it comes to the apparent pricing difference in PCGS and NGC coins that it's really a wash whwen buying and reselling an already holdered coin. that same line of thinking doesn't work when submitting if the market views things the way my experience shows. a quicker turn-around(not such a big difference as of late) and the small amount saved on fees is easily negated by the increased sales price. it's just a fact of the market that while a coin that may have ended up in a PCGS holder a year ago won't necessarily end up in the same grade NGC holder, nor will it sell to the same level.
as Jon pointed out in a round about way, which of the following would you rather experience:
submit to NGC, saving $10-$20 and having the coin a few weeks sooner. at the point of sale the coin is discounted.
submit to PCGS and end up with a perhaps lower graded coin that still sells for more.
i'm not drinking Kool-Aid or suggesting that the above scenario is what routinely takes place, just what i see the shift in market share between PCGS to NGC bringing about. dealer---or should we call them seller, Marty?---submissions are one thing when quick "flipping" is the object, but what about the true collector and what about the market share shift and it's effect on the future?? will it eventually leave us top-heavy with marginal coins that dealers are forced to hold or sell at an eventual loss as prices drop??
<< <i>Speaking only for series' that I regularly search, NGC always seems like they've had a higher percentage of coins holdered at the hiogher grades. My impression is that they grade a bit less tight, collectors who are selling and dealers sense that and the market overall accepts it. >>
That would also be an accurate assessment for the material that I watch. NGC isn't as easy as they used to be, in fact they've tightened quite a bit. But, while they've tightened, PCGS has tightened even more.
Russ, NCNE
I wasn't the only one either. The same "story" reverberated at any local/regional show in my area. Most small-medium sized dealers need prompt turnarounds for a healthy cash flow. To wait 90 days was idiotic, from that standpoint. Again, PCGS has brought their turnaround times down to decent levels as of late.
As far as effecting the market, I don't see any effect. I believe you are presuming that the NGC coins are overgraded, and undesirable. I don't feel that's the case in most instances. If you would like to argue the grading standards of ms/66+ Commem's, type coins etc. are graded tighter by PCGS, I'll go along with that, although I'd always want to compare specific coins. You know there are dogs in all holders, and if you don't believe that, you are in a trance of some sort.
For the coins I'm submitting, which would be ms/65- type, Commem's etc., the market is quite healthy, regardless of holder, as long as the coin has good eye appeal. Also, I don't see a huge disparity in grading between NGC and PCGS at those grade levels.
<< <i>The breaking point to me seems to be starting to show at dealer web-sites, many more NGC coins held for longer times. I assume that dealers can't hold out forever and remain competitive. Collectors and other dealers won't support an equal price for a perceived lesser product, so prices will eventually come down for the NGC flood coins. My wonder is when will that happen and how badly will it affect the overall market?? NGC has persisted in following a less restricted course than PCGS, willing to hold hands with HSN as well as almost every promotion that comes along. On the positive side, NGC also seems to be getting more of the larger collections consigned to them. It can be confusing and hard to sort out.
<< <i>
What types of coins are being held for longer times? Moderns? Commem's? Type? The holder may not be the reason they are sitting, either. Most larger dealer's websites may seem to be flooded because they have average coins, PROPERLY GRADED, but with average eye appeal, and a stiff asking price. Average eye appeal coins aren't selling right now, in any holder. Better eye appeal coins are selling, and selling quite well, regardless of holder.
LSCC#1864
Ebay Stuff
also pre 1915 true scarce coins that are at least properly graded with killer eye appeal and extraordinary special qualities be it ngc or pcgs sell for strong prices if............. IF YOU CAN FIND THEM ............... as many are in strong hands
unfortunately 99% of the coins on the current market are not as per the above
I don't send 80% of my raw coins to NGC to avoid PCGS grading. I send them to NGC to get higher grades and make more money.
Of course that strategy only works because most coin buyers can't tell when a coin is a wee bit loosely graded. That's not changing anytime soon. After all, if people knew how to grade, they wouldn't need the services in the first place.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>The PCGS coins are nicer and being put away in collections. The NGC coins keep circulating trying to find a home?? >>
<< <i>The PCGS coins are nicer and being put away in collections. The NGC coins keep circulating trying to find a home??
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>What's so funny? >>
I also have to ask, "what's so funny?" All I have to do to see the current market situation is walk a few blocks to my local PNG dealer and look in his cases.
There are 9,233 PCGS coin auctions running (10,188 including foreign) on eBay.
I don't know exactly what this means, but perhaps it is pertinent to this discussion.
<< <i> Right now, as of 6:50 this morning, there are 6,599 U.S. NGC coin auctions running on eBay. (7,546 including foreign.)
There are 9,233 PCGS coin auctions running (10,188 including foreign) on eBay.
I don't know exactly what this means, but perhaps it is pertinent to this discussion. >>
:
<< <i>What's so funny? >>
There are plenty of nice NGC coins in established collections that don't "keep ciculating trying to find a home". I have quite a few in my collection. There are also plenty of PCGS coins that aren't PQ that get passed from dealer to dealer. You guys need to lay off the Koolaid!!!
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The beauty of specializing, as you, I, and many of our buddies do, is that we know what we like, and it has little to do with the holder. Despite all the "tightening", lots of the stuff I see holdered is lousy. The grade doesn't matter too much, the coins are not strong. If you're genuinely collecting, that's really what's important. I'm going to routinely buy coins I like for the price the market demands if they come available, regardless of the holder wars, the advice from idiots on the board telling me what to buy, or what is "mainstream" or a good investment. The registry guys like Craig that manage to put together beautiful collections AND dominate the registry are amazing collectors, as they have accomplished two seperate goals IMO, and deserve all the accolades they receive.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Finally!
i'm confused, i can't make up my mind whether i think you tend to agree with some of what i've put forth or disagree!!!
al h.
I work mostly with Morgan and Peace Dollars in my current business. I pay the same accross the line for a holdered PCGS, NGC or ICG Morgan or Peace Common Dates. Personally all 3 services do an accurate job of grading Morgan and Peace in 64 or 65. I avoid ICG like the plague when it comes to a high dollar morgan (IN any grade), but on common dates in common grades, they are all pretty equal. I will personally purchase NGC Morgans over PCGS, but if it comes down to it and I have a choice on Peace Dollars, I will take a PCGS over anything. I don't see a big difference in grading on Morgans between the two. I prefer NGC Slabs to PCGS, mainly because of the white insert. About the only service that I buy VAMS slabbed from is ANACS, mainly because I live close to ANACS (1 hour) and they are in abundance around here. I think that most services are finding a niche in the market. PCGS and NGC are good services who have a good competition going. Price per slab will kill PCGS if they don't wake up and realize that they are buy far the most expensive service to use.
And now for a personal opinion, I only really submit to ANACS, but that is due to what someone called the "tree".
I suppose I was rambling about why I think many coins are sitting unsold.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Right now, as of 6:50 this morning, there are 6,599 U.S. NGC coin auctions running on eBay. (7,546 including foreign.)
There are 9,233 PCGS coin auctions running (10,188 including foreign) on eBay.
I don't know exactly what this means, but perhaps it is pertinent to this discussion. >>
Where you able to subtract out the key word spammer's?
in a sense it is a holder issue brought on by what MrEureka said and RYK pasted---I don't send 80% of my raw coins to NGC to avoid PCGS grading. I send them to NGC to get higher grades and make more money.. this admission may have been subtley avoided by many in the past year or two, but other assertions have been openly admitted, that NGC was getting coins back faster and was worth it to turn them around. in the end what has happened (JMHO) is that since all the coins were tending to go to NGC, a higher percentage of marginal coins were going there, an unavoidable enevibility. if my perception is correct, and for what i follow i feel confident that it is, the NGC coins at the same and higher grades than their PCGS counterparts have languished at the same and lower prices.
i'll add that while i may be full of crap in my assertions and observations, they aren't really what i had hoped the discussion would find it's way to. i had hoped other members would follow the lead and comment on series' that they follow closely first and my theory second. at any rate, things seem to be going just fine!!!
There sure are - and yet:
I don't send 80% of my raw coins to NGC to avoid PCGS grading. I send them to NGC to get higher grades and make more money.
The statement you accuse of being made on koolaid is accurate - on the whole. Any such statement breaks down when looking at individual coins.