Heritage auction archives price shock--does this ever happen to you?

RYK · September 8, 2005 3:25AM

Part of my pattern for researching the value of a coin is to check in the Heritage auction archive, probably one of the most valuable coin resources available anywhere at any price (IMO). With increasing frequency, I will go to the archives and not only find a similar coin for sale, but I will find the same coin that has been recently sold. Invariably, the auction price (which is usually a reasonable approximation of value on the open market) will be significantly lower than the price the coin is offered. At this point, the Coin Fairy™ and Coin Devil™ pop up on my right and left shoulders, respectively. The Coin Fairy™ tells me that if I really like the coin, the price should not matter much. The Coin Devil™ tells me that if I buy the coin I am a sucker and deserve to get ripped off. Sometimes I listen to the one, sometimes the other. Today, I listened to the Coin Devil™ and passed on the coin.

Longacre · September 8, 2005 3:29AM

I know what you're saying. Sometimes I do so much research before I make a purchase that I get my knickers in a twist and it is extremely painful. I've listened to the Devil more often than the fairy, though.

rhedden · September 8, 2005 3:41AM

A year ago, I almost bought a raw 1818 capped bust quarter on ebay that looked like an original AU coin. It was an R5 or R6 variety. It had very nice colorful toning. I looked it up in the Heritage auction archives and found it sitting in an NCS slab that said "Improperly Cleaned." The seller was purporting that it was not cleaned (or didn't mention it at all.) It went for approximately double the Heritage price on ebay, and I'm sure the new owner was delighted when they found out it had been whizzed. Thank Heavens for Heritage auction archives.

mgoodm3 · September 8, 2005 3:48AM

I found one in the current ANR auction that was sold last year by Heritage and has since reslabbed at a higher grade. It is a helpful resource.

Steve27 · September 8, 2005 3:49AM

Improperly cleaned and whizzed are not the same thing, not even close.

Coinosaurus · September 8, 2005 4:00AM

It does level the playing field tremendously. I don't think I've made a single large purchase in the last couple years without checking it first. Ditto on the sell side. I'm kinda surprised they haven't tried to start charging for the information, but I think they are pretty committed to keeping it out there free as a marketing tool. It must get zillions of hits. Seems like I look at it almost every day for something or another & I've noticed a lot of dealers referring to it in their ad copy.

I'd love to see Legend (and other dealers) do something similar - can you imagine a photoarchive with all their fixed price listings for the last several years - that would be a serious research tool. Can't believe it would cost that much, either.

291fifth · September 8, 2005 4:05AM

This is the time to be listening to the coin devil. The market is softening. Don't overpay for anything.

Barry · September 8, 2005 4:12AM

I've following the trail of enough auction coins, many marked up 30% or more by the dealer immediately after the auction. That's why I tend to buy more high end coins at auction, rather than from dealers.

Another good resource is ANR's auction archives. Unfortunately, they still need to be searched one catalog at a time, but there's plenty of great info there as well.

BTW, Robert, I hope there's a cure for the TM fever™ you've contracted

AmericanCopper · September 8, 2005 4:40AM

I agree wholheartedly with your opinion of the Heritage archives as being a valueable research tool for current and past values of a particular coin, and quite often future predictions can be assumed on how a coin will perform over the long term if you know what it's done in past markets. But buying a coin from a particular dealer that was recently purchased from a major auction house and then being offered at a higher price a few months later is not only common and an accepted practice, it's the engine that keeps the market viable and in motion. A while ago I purchased a coin from a dealer board member that I knew had purchased it from Heritage 6 months earlier and tacked on $500 to his hammer price, but 50 years of watching the coin market told me this was a coin that would hold its present value (the amount I purchased it for) and would increase in value and resale price over the long term. So far the coin has vastly out-performed the stock market, and I've had the pleasure of stewardship for this little treasue for the past couple of years. If you know your coins and the past history of any particular issue, there should be little to fear over the long-term (5 years or more) if you've done the research. Kudos to Heritage for making my job easier!

RYK · September 8, 2005 4:44AM

But buying a coin from a particular dealer that was recently purchased from a major auction house and then being offered at a higher price a few months later is not only common and an accepted practice, it's the engine that keeps the market viable and in motion.

I agree completely and have purchased countless coins in this fashion with no regrets. Sometimes, though, especially when I am venturing into new areas, the magnitude of the price mark-up gets me. In this case, the coin was crossed from NGC to PCGS, marked up about 25%, is a rare coin, and is probably reasonably priced for retail. Maybe I am using it as an excuse to not buy the coin.

garsmith · September 8, 2005 5:01AM

What has become a shock to me lately is the ridiculous reserve prices people are putting on thier Heritage auctions.

291fifth · September 8, 2005 6:03AM

<< What has become a shock to me lately is the ridiculous reserve prices people are putting on thier Heritage auctions. >>

A clear sign of a weakening market. The sellers are losing confidence.

postalamericana · September 8, 2005 8:10AM

What has become a shock to me lately is the ridiculous reserve prices people are putting on thier Heritage auctions.

I agree....+++++ (got to find that I AGREE FLAG!)

romarub · September 8, 2005 8:31AM

I also find the Heritage Archives an invaluable tool for researching prices. About a year ago I paid a pretty penny for a rarer 1795 bust half. The seller actually offered to cancel the sale and sold it to me at the price I suggested, and I saved his email offering a return privilege - just in case. He assured me the coin had been in his vault for years, that it was original, etc., etc. After I sent payment I spotted the very same coin on the Heritage Archive from an auction less than a year earlier - and the coin was in a slab (it was not slabbed when it was on eBay), the description indicating the coin had been tooled, cleaned - in short, everything the seller had assured me it had not been. He'd also obviously lied about having had the coin for years in his safe deposit box, and actor that he was (is?), seemed surprised I'd spotted the coin on theArchive.When I notified him of my "discovery" and demanded the sale be cancelled, he finally agreed. To make a long story short, I got my refund (he had sent the coin out already and I refused the parcel when it arrived). I've seen this guy selling other things on eBay, and (maybe he forgot I had past experience with him), he even offered to cancel another sale and sell me another coin, directly - seems to be his m.o.. This guy is a real scammer, and if I encounter him again, I'll definitely report him (I wonder if eBay will take any action - it rarely seems willing to).

coinguy1 · September 8, 2005 8:41AM

<< What has become a shock to me lately is the ridiculous reserve prices people are putting on thier Heritage auctions. >>

<< A clear sign of a weakening market. The sellers are losing confidence. >>

I don't agree with the cause and effect there at all. I see that as indicating that those sellers are reluctant to sell at anything less than very strong prices. If they were losing confidence, they would/should be in a hurry to sell and at whatever the market would bear.

PerryHall · September 8, 2005 9:47AM

<< I also find the Heritage Archives an invaluable tool for researching prices. About a year ago I paid a pretty penny for a rarer 1795 bust half. The seller actually offered to cancel the sale and sold it to me at the price I suggested, and I saved his email offering a return privilege - just in case. He assured me the coin had been in his vault for years, that it was original, etc., etc. After I sent payment I spotted the very same coin on the Heritage Archive from an auction less than a year earlier - and the coin was in a slab (it was not slabbed when it was on eBay), the description indicating the coin had been tooled, cleaned - in short, everything the seller had assured me it had not been. He'd also obviously lied about having had the coin for years in his safe deposit box, and actor that he was (is?), seemed surprised I'd spotted the coin on theArchive.When I notified him of my "discovery" and demanded the sale be cancelled, he finally agreed. To make a long story short, I got my refund (he had sent the coin out already and I refused the parcel when it arrived). I've seen this guy selling other things on eBay, and (maybe he forgot I had past experience with him), he even offered to cancel another sale and sell me another coin, directly - seems to be his m.o.. This guy is a real scammer, and if I encounter him again, I'll definitely report him (I wonder if eBay will take any action - it rarely seems willing to). >>

Raw + Expensive + eBay = Caveat Emptor

USAROK · September 8, 2005 9:52AM

<< 

<< What has become a shock to me lately is the ridiculous reserve prices people are putting on thier Heritage auctions. >>

<< A clear sign of a weakening market. The sellers are losing confidence. >>

I don't agree with the cause and effect there at all. I see that as indicating that those sellers are reluctant to sell at anything less than very strong prices. If they were losing confidence, they would/should be in a hurry to sell and at whatever the market would bear. >>

Mark,

291fifth · September 8, 2005 10:12AM

<< 

<< What has become a shock to me lately is the ridiculous reserve prices people are putting on thier Heritage auctions. >>

<< A clear sign of a weakening market. The sellers are losing confidence. >>

I don't agree with the cause and effect there at all. I see that as indicating that those sellers are reluctant to sell at anything less than very strong prices. If they were losing confidence, they would/should be in a hurry to sell and at whatever the market would bear. >>

Not necessarily. Many coin collectors and wannabe dealers have a mindset that they will NEVER take a loss on a coin. As a result they end up holding their material for years and years after they should have dumped it and moved on. They don't understand the concept of opportunity loss...which they are taking by holding on to widget coins. The more professional dealers and advanced collectors understand opportunity loss and move their material when it has to be moved.

ziggy29 · September 8, 2005 10:22AM

<< I don't agree with the cause and effect there at all. I see that as indicating that those sellers are reluctant to sell at anything less than very strong prices. If they were losing confidence, they would/should be in a hurry to sell and at whatever the market would bear. >>

I would agree with that in the *early* stages of a down market. Once it started free-falling, many people would be looking to get out at any price. That's how stock market crashes seem to happen, anyway. They don't happen right off of peaks -- they tend to happen off of a market slowly declining for a couple of months from its peak. Then the decline slowly accelerates, and pretty soon all the weak holders (not looking to hold for the very long term) start panicking to take whatever profits are left.

BAJJERFAN · September 8, 2005 10:50AM

But buying a coin from a particular dealer that was recently purchased from a major auction house and then being offered at a higher price a few months later is not only common and an accepted practice, it's the engine that keeps the market viable and in motion.

I've following the trail of enough auction coins, many marked up 30% or more by the dealer immediately after the auction. That's why I tend to buy more high end coins at auction, rather than from dealers.

xxx

A coin dealer is a lot like a car dealer in that mostly all they add to a coin is cost and not much in value. Go to the auction and buy it from the same place they do.

Heritage auction archives price shock--does this ever happen to you?

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