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When will there be an all PSA 9 set from the 60's?
TheCARDKid
Posts: 1,496 ✭
Do you guys think it's a possibility we could see an all PSA 9 set from the 60's show up sometime in the next 5 years? An all PSA 9 set from the 50's or earlier seems like a stretch. A '58 Topps set in mint 9 will probably never exist (unless there's a couple cases of unopened boxes still sitting in someones attic). But some of the sets from the 60's seem a little more likely (not '62 or '63).
So, if you had to pick one set that could do it, which would it be? '65 Topps has always been my favorite. But it seems like '68 and '69 are the front runners.
So, if you had to pick one set that could do it, which would it be? '65 Topps has always been my favorite. But it seems like '68 and '69 are the front runners.
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Comments
wayne
However, if you are talking about any of the larger Topps sets, it will be very tough. There will always be a few commons that are tough to find in PSA 9. Even if every card from 1968 gets graded PSA 9 or 10 -- it will be close to impossible to expect one person to be able to get every 1/1 PSA 9.
I don't see it happening in the next 5 years. I really can't predict beyond that as there are way too many uncertainties. As a good example, on June 12, 2000, there were only two PSA 9 MINT cards from 1968 of #512 Grant Jackson, with zero PSA 10's. Today, there are about seven PSA 10's and nearly one hundred PSA 9s. Though that is quite the exception in the grand scheme of things, that is still a HUGE change in the last 19 months.
1) There is at least one PSA9 in existance for each card in a given set - this will be much easier than #2
2) A single collector must assemble all the cards of a given set in PSA9 - obviously this is not even possible unless #1 has happened. I just don't think there are any sets of the 60s with pops in PSA9 high enough to satisfy the set builders, the people collecting a certain team or player, etc. to allow one PSA9 example of each card to fall into the hands of a single collector. At least on the larger sets.
As Schmidt said, it's possible but not particularly likely with the larger sets. I would also argue that the sets of the 70s are at least as tough (centering, printing, etc) as the sets of the 60s.
Mike
I think it will be very tough to build a 1969 PSA 9+ set. Just ask Ron Sanders. He has a phenomenal set but <50% are 9's or better. There are several commons that are very tough to find even in NM condition. The All-star cards are also scarce in high grade/well centered condition. Then there's that pesky Lou Brock with 0 population in 9 despite the relatively large amount of series 1 vending boxes and rack packs that have been busted. Just compare the league leader populations with the Lou Brock and you'll see what I mean.
In a few months I hope to be at 50% 9's. The adding of new 9's has slowed down to a crawl, and of course many of the cards simply don't exist in 9.
For me, chasing the one card here and there, upgrading, trading and having fun doing it is what it's all about.
Sky
"Give me a reason to fly, and I'll be there"
There's still a lot out there not yet graded (isn't Larry Fritsch sitting on a mountain of high grade vintage cards?). Look at the Grant Jackson example of what's possible. There's 33 Gem mint Drysdales. Actually most 68's already appear in mint 9, some with just 8 or 9 total cards submitted. Imagine if it was 10x that amount.
What percent of all the high grade commons (let's say '68) in the world are graded by PSA so far? From the 70's, it would get much easier. There's still alot of vending, cello, rack and wax boxes out there. If someone with alot of $$$ were determined enough they could do it. There's already an almost complete set of '86 fleer basketball in PSA 10 and those populations are in the low single digits for some cards. Of course there's probably more team/player collectors of the 60's than '86 fleer, but if you have enough money, you can get the cards you need.
He also has a 1968 Topps 3-D set (only 12 cards) that is only one card short of being all PSA 10! Of course that is another one of those rounded corners sets ...
I don't think any of the larger sets from the 60's will ever achieve a GPA of 9.0, but if it has to be one then it will be the 1968 regular Topps issue.
If you check any of the older Population Reports, you will see that there has been over 28 Drysdale PSA 10 cards for over three years and running.
My best guess: Someone had a bunch of these cards in high grade and submitted them 5-10 years ago.
My second best guess: PSA had to teach its graders how to grade, and this was one of the "free" grades used by PSA to teach graders the differences between the top grades. A better example of this theory is exhibited by the 1989 Topps Robin Yount and Tony Gwynn cards. Both of them have had ENORMOUS populations for many years. My guess? PSA bought 1,000 card lots of each player and had graders grade them as their "practice" before they became official graders. It is ludicrous to think that any collector would have paid $8,000 over five years ago to have cards of either of those players graded.
As a final sidenote: Grading standards, though officially the same, seem to be much stricter now than when those Drysdales were graded.
I can't think of any regular-issue card that comes close in terms of population. There is a common from the 1957 Topps set that has something like 7 PSA 10s. Robin Yount's 1976 card has a very high population in PSA 10, though less than Drysdale, I believe.
I agree that the 1969 topps set will be impossible to have in just a GPA of 9 much less every card actually being a nine! When I started upgrading the set my goal was to have the 1969 set with all its variations with a GPA of 9. I began purchasing many 10s aggressively with the theory that none of the WL variations could be attained in better than an 8 grade. Thus, I needed at least 23 PSA 10s. As I am realizing, there were certain runs that were blessed with vending distributions, generally superior centering and/or double printing. Worse yet, I have many PSA 8s in my possession that appear to be better to my eyes than some of my PSA 9s. Thus, I have adjusted (not lowered!) my standards to include sharp well centered PSA 8s of cards that are not easy to find in high grade.
On the other hand, I am 98% sure that the 1968 Topps set already exists with a GPA of 9+. Furthermore, the 1968 Topps set stands a fairly reasonable chance of being collected with every card in at least 9 (if every card actually exists in a 9), especially if every card becomes available to the open market.
Ron
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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