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Don Hays on CNBC Power Lunch today 6/2 @12:10 p.m.

just fyi....

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    Who is Don Hays?
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    pharmerpharmer Posts: 8,355
    sells frying pans for the AT folks?
    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

    Apropos of the coin posse/aka caca: "The longer he spoke of his honor, the tighter I held to my purse."

    image
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    << <i>sells frying pans for the AT folks? >>



    Only teflon.....

    image
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    << <i>

    << <i>sells frying pans for the AT folks? >>



    Only teflon.....

    image >>



    We still don't know who he isimage
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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭
    Who is Don Hays?
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    << <i>Who is Don Hays? >>



    An investment advisor who I believe is the smartest person on the planet who believes that the stock market will double by the end of 2008, even though it will lower in the months ahead. He believes gold will breakdown below $411 soon and stay in a narrow range for a long time between $370 and $411.

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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Who is Don Hays? >>



    An investment advisor who I believe is the smartest person on the planet who believes that the stock market will double by the end of 2008, even though it will lower in the months ahead. He believes gold will breakdown below $411 soon and stay in a narrow range for a long time between $370 and $411. >>





    image
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    RYKRYK Posts: 35,795 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Hays Schmays. Another CNBC talking head. image
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    << <i>Hays Schmays. Another CNBC talking head. image >>



    I've followed for 20 years and there is none better.

    The S and P 500 since December 98 is slightly below breakeven. $100K is now worth around $99K

    His long term portfolio during the exact time period today is over $200K.

    No shorting, no timing. Just good asset allocation.

    Say what you will. I manage $120 million and I use him for 70% of my decision making. My guess is his 1040 is around $4 million/year. Another talking head? Maybe. But the best around. Listen in at 12:10 today.

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    RYKRYK Posts: 35,795 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I will try a sub to his website. Do you subscribe, Kaytsok?
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    << <i>I will try a sub to his website. Do you subscribe, Kaytsok? >>



    www.haysmarketfocus.com



    5 day free trial.
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    ....again, fyi....

    Here are comments from this morning. Usually written by Don, but today, written by his son, Keith.




    Hays Morning Market Comment
    Get on Board, or Get Left Behind
    June 02, 2005
    Those Countries Who Embrace Globalization Will Prosper

    by Keith A. Hays

    Globalization and the Technology Revolution
    We believe globalization and the technology revolution are combining to bring the world into an incredible new era. As the world’s 4 billion unemployed workers begin to move off the poverty stricken farms and into the call centers around the world, the world’s economy will only improve. As the world’s economy improves, millions and even billions of people’s lives will improve.

    With a huge influx of new workers comes a whole new class of people to consume. The new influx of workers virtually guarantees that inflation will never again be a problem in our lifetimes. Inflation is dead simply because you cannot ask for a wage increase when someone in India is willing to do your job at 1/5th the current cost. Lower inflation promotes lower interest rates which promotes economic growth. Those countries which promote free competition will be the logical beneficiaries, and those countries that continue to vote “NON” to free competition will suffer. The great voting barometers around the world, the world’s stock markets, will cast their votes to the pro-growth countries and punish the protectionists into change.

    Who will be the winners in the Globalization game? The winners will be countries that are able to have the most capable participants with an opportunity to innovate and under competitive pressure to do so – this is called capitalism and democracy. Therefore, the US already has the infrastructure in place to be one of the winners. In America , Globalization means open competition with the world. Americans have typically never backed down from good ol’ competition, but that means we need our team to be more educated and ready to play. Those people that are not willing to adapt will risk being left behind.

    Educate your children, grandchildren and community. This country must do something to ensure that our education standards are high. The political bickering must end.

    For those mature countries who take advantage of a global economy, it means the ability to outsource mundane, unproductive tasks and focus on being more productive and creative which in turn creates economic growth. I am told by Thomas Friedman in his book, The World Is Flat, that in 2005 over 400,000 simple tax returns will be outsourced to India . So if you are an accountant that does basic returns for a living, you better hit the books. However, if you are an accountant that can create value through creativity, knowledge and relationship, you will become extremely valuable and successful.

    Medical professionals, you are not immune. Many small and medium size hospitals are sending CAT scans to radiologists in Australia and India during the night and are able to give the results the next morning to patients. Friedman tells me they call them “Night Hawks”.

    Oops, look out Financial firms, Reuters, Dow Jones and Bloomberg are all outsourcing their wires. No one, it seems, is immune. The good news is that those who are prepared can look forward to doing away with the mundane tasks, and focus on what they love to do. We are just starting the process at Hays of thinking outside the box and determining what we can outsource in order to have our fantastic employees focus on the parts of the jobs they love. This could keep our costs down and our employee’s satisfaction up. We might even get our beloved charts updated in the middle of the night instead of early in the morning. It is an exciting future for those who embrace globalization and do not get left behind.

    If all of this excites you, you have what it takes to prosper. If it makes you want to protect what you have and close our borders, you need to rethink your current situation.

    The World Will be a Better Place
    Because of technology, people in the most remote places or countries with the largest barriers are now able to see the possibilities of a better life when a free society is allowed to flourish. Citizens of many oppressed nations are rising up to demand a better life that democracy can provide. No longer will leaders be able to suppress their people for their own selfish greed. As a result, you will begin to see a world more peaceful than at anytime in history.

    Depending on your definition of Democracy, some say there has never been a war between two democracies. You can argue some specifics, but the principal certainly shows that democracies lead to peace.

    You can already see the evidence everywhere. People all over the world are being freed by technology.

    At the end of this report, I have added a few examples of articles that have been printed in the last couple of weeks. If you have the time, take a few minutes to enjoy them.

    Terrorism
    But what about Terrorism? Won’t Terrorism continue to be a bigger and bigger problem for the world? The Answer is a resounding NO!

    Terrorism will not again flourish. In October 2000, my father stated in one of his letters that, “Terrorism will become intense. As those desperate leaders are backed into a corner they will be very desperate in their efforts to stay in control. I’m an optimist, so I believe that right will win out, and for the first time in many, many centuries the world will start on a path that will allow the 80% of the world that is impoverished to start escaping their misery.” Obviously, September 11th confirmed the truth of his words. Since that time, however, people have begun to rise up as the terrorists have only become weaker.

    The reason terrorism will not survive can be summed up in this simplistic but effective example that you may have heard us tell before.

    Imagine that I am driving an old beat up Plymouth Neon and my neighbor pulls into his driveway with a brand new shiny Lexus. My human emotions immediately make me wish I could have a car like that. I now have two options… I can decide to take on a second job, go back to school for more education, and work harder and smarter until I can afford my new Lexus, or I can wait until night fall, sneak over to my neighbor’s driveway with a baseball bat, and as we say in the south, I can “beat the stew” out of his car so that he cannot enjoy something I do not have. This is what the terrorist are trying to do today.

    If I choose the first path, I improve my standard of living, and obtain a better future for my family and myself. If I choose the baseball bat, I go to jail, lose my funding, and have given myself even less of a chance of improving my lot.

    For those who choose the first path, the future is bright. For those that choose violence, they will be squeezed into more and more misery. Very few in today’s time want to be associated with funding terrorists. They are losing any large funding they once enjoyed. No countries want to be found harboring terrorists. They have no chance of succeeding.

    We like to say,
    “Technology produces Transparency
    Transparency produces Envy
    Envy produces Desire to Catch Up
    …or unwillingness to Change
    and that kind of envy grows hatred and terrorism

    Terrorism ELIMINATES the ability to raise CAPITAL
    and the NET RESULT is:
    The strong get stronger & The weak get weaker”

    Technology is allowing anyone who wants to understand a way to a better life to see it. Globalization is giving those people the opportunity to pursue it. Countries who take advantage will prosper. Countries and people stuck in the past will not.

    Bet your hard earned dollars accordingly.

    Here are the Articles I mentioned:
    From NY Times columnist Nicholas Kristof:
    The Chinese Communist Party survived a brutal civil war with the Nationalists, battles with American forces in Korea and massive pro-democracy demonstrations at Tiananmen Square . But now it may finally have met its match - the Internet.

    The collision between the Internet and Chinese authorities is one of the grand wrestling matches of history, visible in part at www.yuluncn.com.

    That's the Web site of a self-appointed journalist named Li Xinde. He made a modest fortune selling Chinese medicine around the country, and now he's started the Chinese Public Opinion Surveillance Net - one of four million blogs in China .

    Mr. Li travels around China with an I.B.M. laptop and a digital camera, investigating cases of official wrongdoing. Then he writes about them on his Web site and skips town before the local authorities can arrest him.

    All this underscores how the Internet is beginning to play the watchdog role in China that the press plays in the West. The Internet is also eroding the leadership's monopoly on information and is complicating the traditional policy of "nei jin wai song" - cracking down at home while pretending to foreigners to be wide open.

    Yet China , fortunately, is bigger than its emperor. Some 100 million Chinese now surf the Web, and e-mail and Web chat rooms are ubiquitous.

    The authorities have arrested a growing number of Web dissidents. But there just aren't enough police to control the Internet, and when sites are banned, Chinese get around them with proxy servers.

    So where is China going? I think the Internet is hastening China along the same path that South Korea , Chile and especially Taiwan pioneered. In each place, a booming economy nurtured a middle class, rising education, increased international contact and a growing squeamishness about torturing dissidents.

    President Hu has fulminated in private speeches that foreign "hostile forces" are trying to change China . Yup, count me in - anybody who loves China as I do would be hostile to an empty Mao suit like Mr. Hu. But it's the Chinese leadership itself that is digging the Communist Party's grave, by giving the Chinese people broadband.

    One of my favorite sites to read is Khaleej Times at http://www.khaleejtimes.com/index00.asp. They provide a great perspective on what thoughts are being displayed around the world. You can also pick up a good looking wife in the banner advertisements. This article is from Khaleej Times:

    TEHERAN - The United States may see oil and terrorism as Islamic Iran’s main exports, but many young people here will be quick to disagree.
    The Islamic republic, home to some of the most qualified young people in the Middle East, has been exporting its brain-power at an alarming rate -- with an estimated 150,000 frustrated graduates taking flight every year.
    And as a joke going around Iranian universities puts it, having a PhD means you’re more than likely to head overseas for a job doing Pizza Hut delivery.
    “It doesn’t really matter what your graduation grade is. It makes no difference what contacts you have. You just cannot find a decent job,” complained Somayeh, a 25-year-old graduate of industrial design.
    Officially, the unemployment rate among graduates stands at around 16 percent. Experts say the real figure is far higher, and caution further that the figures are also hiding an additional, far larger problem of underemployment.
    The other attraction of heading abroad is greater individual freedoms.
    “The government needs to prepare the ground for private sector growth to absorb the workforce, but the problem is that 80 percent of the economy is controlled by the government. The government is the biggest rival of the private sector.”
    “The situation has instilled in young people a utilitarian approach,” explained Fariborz Raees Dana, another economist.
    “We cannot offer them opportunities in the fields of politics, economics or science. So they simply move on.”
    We will be back with you on Monday.


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    RYKRYK Posts: 35,795 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Medical professionals, you are not immune. Many small and medium size hospitals are sending CAT scans to radiologists in Australia and India during the night and are able to give the results the next morning to patients. Friedman tells me they call them “Night Hawks”.

    Yes, these are US-trained radiologists living abroad, making big $$$, and allowing those of us that live in the US to get a decent night's sleep, rather than work all day, all night, and read your wife's/mother's mammogram the next day. He clearly has no understanding of this issue. Hopefully, his understanding of other issues is less superficial and more accurate. image
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    LongacreLongacre Posts: 16,717 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Medical professionals, you are not immune. Many small and medium size hospitals are sending CAT scans to radiologists in Australia and India during the night and are able to give the results the next morning to patients. Friedman tells me they call them “Night Hawks”.

    Yes, these are US-trained radiologists living abroad, making big $$$, and allowing those of us that live in the US to get a decent night's sleep, rather than work all day, all night, and read your wife's/mother's mammogram the next day. He clearly has no understanding of this issue. Hopefully, his understanding of other issues is less superficial and more accurate. image >>





    There was a story on NPR about this a few weeks ago as well. I didn't catch the fact that they were US trained radiologists, though. I just assumed they were foreign doctors.

    PS. A lot of tax returns "prepared" by the Big 4 accounting firms are actually done in India now.
    Always took candy from strangers
    Didn't wanna get me no trade
    Never want to be like papa
    Working for the boss every night and day
    --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
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    RYKRYK Posts: 35,795 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There was a story on NPR about this a few weeks ago as well. I didn't catch the fact that they were US trained radiologists, though. I just assumed they were foreign doctors.

    Yes, and it is we (the radiologists) who contract and pay for the service, not the hospital, insurance co, etc.
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    lloydmincylloydmincy Posts: 1,861
    For me to read later....
    The Accumulator - Dark Lloyd of the Sith

    image
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    robertprrobertpr Posts: 6,862 ✭✭✭
    An investment advisor who I believe is the smartest person on the planet who believes that the stock market will double by the end of 2008, even though it will lower in the months ahead. He believes gold will breakdown below $411 soon and stay in a narrow range for a long time between $370 and $411.

    I haven't read the rest of the crap in this thread, but anyone who believes they can predict the markets with that kind of accuracy is truely an idiot.
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    An investment advisor who I believe is the smartest person on the planet who believes that the stock market will double by the end of 2008, even though it will lower in the months ahead. He believes gold will breakdown below $411 soon and stay in a narrow range for a long time between $370 and $411.

    I'm sure Mr. Hays has done well in a pro-equities environment of the past 20 years. He will really earn his salt if he can double his investors money over the next 10 years. Let him earn the "best ever" mantra in a long term down market too, that's the real test.
    So far the FED has supplied so much credit that no one has been truly tested yet in a DOW and S&P bear.

    Has this guy ever traded currencies and PM's for a living? Did he play in the 1974-1980 gold market and sell out right at the peak as gold hit $875...and made $25 MILLION doing so? Did he know that Volckers actions to raise rates in 1980 was going to kill the PM's market for a decade or two...forcing him to go look elsewhere? Did he personally help unwind the Hunt's huge physical silver position in the early 1980's after the FED's killed them? Was he being considered for Treasury Secretary in the 1970's? If not, I'd leave calling the gold and currency markets to the real experts.

    The guy who HAS the above on his resume, and is CEO of his own natural resources/gold company in Tanzania, and learned the trade from the ground up from one of the saaviest brokers ever (Bert Seligman), is James Sinclair. See his web link below. When it comes to inter-relating markets, natural resources, and currencies, I'll put the money on JS. Yeah, he's an old geezer, but he's done it all. Haystacks can stick to his stocks. The coin market has JH and the gold market has JS. JS certainly doesn't feel gold is going to trade in a tight band around $400. He's predicting a breakout to $480, then to $520, and ultimately to $1650 when things really hit the fan. This could take several years. He also tends to back up his forecasts with cash. And to date, I don't think anyone took him up on them.
    Last one was whether gold was going over $400 (at the time gold was in the lower $300's) He offered $100,000 to anyone who would bet against him. Not even the Elliot Wave Prechertites would take it and they predicted $200 gold before $400 gold! I'm sure if you or Mr. Hays would like a "sure fire" bet, Sinclair might be willing to work one up with $500 gold involved. Easy money for Mr. Hays if he as good as you say.

    Say what you will. I manage $120 million and I use him for 70% of my decision making. My guess is his 1040 is around $4 million/year. Another talking head? Maybe. But the best around. Listen in at 12:10 today.

    Frankly, I'd be a bit anxious if my "personal" investment advisor was getting his directions 70% of the time from other people. It would logically lead to the question, doesn't this make for a costly middleman? Why not just go to Mr. Hays? You mean the rest of the world's tens of thousands of brokers and advisors don't offer enough total info to match a single Mr. Hays? Wow! That is putting all one's eggs in one man's basket. This guy sounds like he is basically 100% against PM's. Guess that the possiblity of further prices in PM's is impossible since Hays has stated so. Just don't tell me that the other 30% of your info is from the Ouja board.

    Think about Hay's statement that gold will stay in the small range of $377-$411. This is sheer lunacy. I for one would be happy to bet $10,000 that gold will not stay in that precise range for a "long" period of time. It almost has to go higher or lower. Did Hay's really say that! Unbelievable. It's essentially equal to picking a precise point against a complete continuum. I hope that 70% of your advice is not coming from that statement.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold

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