85T McGwire - Buy Now?

Axtell · May 19, 2005 5:41AM

As with my other posts, I've been researching cards from the 80s of future hall of famers for a personal collection, and I can't help but think now is the lowest this card is ever going to be. The steroid allegations plus his weak testimony in front of Congress has obviously left a bad taste in many, many mouths.

Searching through auctions, a PSA 9 of this card can be had for about $60, which I can't help but believe is severely undervalued. It's my thinking that as the memory of his testimony fades, and his induction into the HoF will make this card appreciate in value.

Any other takes on this? Will this card continue to plummet? Or do you think it's bottomed out? The 85 topps isn't the easiest of cards to get in high grade (unlike the fleer and upper decks cards I've been researching), so I can't help but think $60 is the ceiling on this particular card.

NDFootballFan · May 19, 2005 5:45AM

I think you mean $60 is the floor. I don't think he will fall anymore since he is still in the top 10 for career HRs. However I can't see what will drive his values higher. His name will be tied to steriods and I can't see him ever becoming the hero he once was.

It's not a bad bet, but you could be sitting on it for a long time before it appreciates.

stevek · May 19, 2005 5:49AM

I've noticed 85 Topps sets being down in recent months despite the Clemens rookie card in there. I think the 85 Topps McGwire card is NOT a good long term investment.

Axtell · May 19, 2005 5:50AM

<< I think you mean $60 is the floor. I don't think he will fall anymore since he is still in the top 10 for career HRs. However I can't see what will drive his values higher. His name will be tied to steriods and I can't see him ever becoming the hero he once was.

It's not a bad bet, but you could be sitting on it for a long time before it appreciates. >>

Oops yeah I meant the floor hehe...but am not so much looking at it from an investment aspect as I do for my own personal collection.

Dand52261 · May 19, 2005 5:54AM

I only paid 500 for my PSA 9 at it's peek what a bone head move on my part. I would not mind buying a lot of 10 for that amount now

austinchau · May 19, 2005 5:57AM

is this a good buy?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=48775&item=6533181652&rd=1&ssPageName=WDVW

ndleo · May 19, 2005 6:01AM

If I had to make a bet on Mac, I would look for the Tiffany RC.

ctsoxfan · May 19, 2005 7:36AM

I agree - the Tiffany set version is probably the one to get. I believe there were only 5000 sets made, which should ensure it's value for the future.

calleocho · May 19, 2005 8:01AM

You could corner the market like that guy with the rickey herdersons.

Its a nice card, a modern classic.

But since you dont care about the investment part why dont you just buy a PSA 8 that has good centering and bright colors.

ndleo · May 19, 2005 8:10AM

Who is trying to corner the Rickey market? I've been trying to get a PSA 9 Henderson for a while now. Maybe this guy is the one that keeps outbidding me.

larryallen73 · May 19, 2005 8:15AM

I personally don't see it as a good investment just based on the shere volume of that card produced. By a couple for fun but I don't think it's an investment. Just my thoughts.

calleocho · May 19, 2005 8:51AM

Nleod,

There were a couple of posts about it.

It was a while ago though. Some guy kept buying all his rookies and paying whatever it took, it looked like owned a bunch of them, he affected the price and made it a pain for regular collectors who just wanted one card.

ndleo · May 19, 2005 9:02AM

Thanks. That explains a lot.

gemint · May 19, 2005 9:52AM

I'm glad I parted with my PSA 9 and PSA 7 when he was chasing the record. I don't own one now but if I wait long enough, I could buy a 9 back for less than my 7 sold for.

goudeygold · May 19, 2005 10:04AM

I agree. Stay away from it. there is essentially nothing that will get the masses to go for a 85T McGwire card again. No matter what you rationalize, unless the set was strictly produced in limited quantities (tiffany, 84 fleer update, etc...) it is going to be very tough to get ANY upswing once it has plummeted.

Can anybody give me an example of any modern cards that have reversed a downward trend after peaking?

Again, stick with the very limited issues, or collect just for personal gratification. If your really into trying to make money (kinda seems like it) simply try to snag some PSA graded pre-war cards cheap. It actually works, the trick is to buy low and in better quality. No guarantees, but it is probably safer than 85T McGwire RCs.

GG

Stone193 · May 19, 2005 10:13AM

Interesting topic and I wish I had an answer. I still have a vending case - wished I had sold it when they had buys at 4 grand.

I have a bunch of singles that I paid 10 bucks for back in 93 when no one wanted them. But I wasn't that particular and most are probably no more than a 7.

The guy has killed his reputation and I'm not sure that he will ever truly rebound - his testimony may have sealed his fate. I think he's a tuff sell now for the HOF as a first time ballot selection? Many believe he took steroids.

I think right now, a PSA 9 for 60$ isn't a bad buy - even if it drops? - I can't take my wife out for dinner for much less! So if it goes as low as 30? That's no big deal compared to where it used to be?

I picked up two lots of Griffey RC's where I paid approximately 40 bucks for a PSA 9 - that's rock bottom to me. He's still HOF bound IMO. That's the main reason I want one.

mike

magellan · May 19, 2005 11:01AM

Comparing McGwire to Clemens as far as PSA 9 price is concerned, I'd say McGwire is still overpriced at $60. You can buy a Clemens in the $40 range last time I checked. He rates higher on the all time list than McGwire IMO.

gosteelers · May 19, 2005 11:01AM

Mike,
I'm with you on the Griffey RC, he's one guy that could be primed for a late career run, IF he can stay relatively healthy. Although, based on previous posts about '89 UD, there's tons of 'em out there.

Mark

RipublicaninMass · May 19, 2005 11:04AM

<< Who is trying to corner the Rickey market? I've been trying to get a PSA 9 Henderson for a while now. Maybe this guy is the one that keeps outbidding me. >>

It is godswork, he has won a bunch of herndersons from me, he bids up to beckett SMR and over!

Axtell · May 19, 2005 11:08AM

Thanks for all the input.

I will keep an eye out for the mcgwire, but am in no rush. It appears as if there is no way this card goes up in value, and as more product comes to light, will just continue to push prices down.

I suspect I will be able to pick up one for less than $40 in a year or so.

Gemmy10 · May 19, 2005 11:13AM

<<is the ceiling on this particular card>>

It figures. A little education:

Ceiling = Top

Floor = Bottom

goudeygold · May 19, 2005 11:16AM

your killing me gemmy.

GG

jrdolan · May 19, 2005 11:53AM

<< 

<< Who is trying to corner the Rickey market? I've been trying to get a PSA 9 Henderson for a while now. Maybe this guy is the one that keeps outbidding me. >>

It is godswork, he has won a bunch of herndersons from me, he bids up to beckett SMR and over! >>

A year ago I couldn't win an auction for a PSA 9 Henderson rookie to save my life. Finally I had to bid almost $100 over SMR to get mine. That's what they were ALL selling for at that time. Now of course they're selling at $155 to $175. Mr. Godswork's market-cornering scheme backfired.

calleocho · May 19, 2005 1:12PM

I dont think cornering a market on a particular card ever works to your advantage.

I know a lot of people who will throw bids to some items if they think its going to low and they happen to have paid a lot more before or happen to have a couple of that item. They keep a floor on certain cards, that might work.

But if you keep winning the same card, at whatever price...it just seems quite unlikely that you could ever sell them for a profit.

Axtell · May 19, 2005 1:21PM

<< <<is the ceiling on this particular card>>

If figures. A little education:

Ceiling = Top

Floor = Bottom >>

Oh wow spammy makes an appearance...what, did the yankees win tonight or something?

And I think it should be:

'It figures' not 'if figures' you bonehead. I like how THIS is your contribution to the conversation. Nothing at all.

You are a sad, pathetic little man spammy. Go back to bed. Your mommy won't like you being up this late.

yankeeno7 · May 19, 2005 4:48PM

I still need a McGwire rookie for my set...planned on purchasing a PSA 9. I have held off because I believe it still has some to fall. I think the floor will be at 30.00 but I could be dead wrong. I dont think my delay will cost me anything because I dont see it going up anytime soon.

IndianaJones · May 21, 2005 5:35AM

Hey ndleo--At the risk of being cascaded with cries of SPAM, I know where you can get a PSA9 Henderson rookie.
It was graded in '03 and looks terrific. You can contact me if you're genuinely interested in investigating.
bfpowell2003@yahoo.com Regardless, I hope you find the one you want. Take care.

RipublicaninMass · May 21, 2005 6:48AM

<< That's what they were ALL selling for at that time. Now of course they're selling at $155 to $175. Mr. Godswork's market-cornering scheme backfired. >>

FYI he won 1 on april 14th for 199.99 with buy it now. SMR is 200 so in his eyes it was a steal..???!!!@!@#$?

LuvMyCoins · May 21, 2005 1:41PM

Excellent post... I went a head and brought my first Mac's RC PSA 9. I just hope it doesn't drop too low.

Lets say... He does make it on his first try. Do you think they will go up? Or should I go back to bed! LOL...

Stone193 · May 21, 2005 1:49PM

<< Excellent post... I went a head and brought my first Mac's RC PSA 9. I just hope it doesn't drop too low.

Lets say... He does make it on his first try. Do you think they will go up? Or should I go back to bed! LOL... >>

LMC
I have noticed a change over the past 10 yrs. It used to be that a year or two before a guy is to go into the hall, the card activity was brisk and prices went up.

Now I have noticed less activity - as if everyone who wants one has it...none of the recent HOF selections have jumped much - not Eck or Carter e.g.

And, the ones that did escalate came back to earth - e.g. Yount, Jackson, Carlton and Brett.

mike

67standup · May 21, 2005 2:28PM

How does one corner a market for a card in which gajillions were produced? What is so special about a PSA 9/10 of a 1980s card? One reason pre-1980, 1970, War II, wherever you draw the line, cards are more difficult to find in high grade is because kids played with them. In the 1980's, rediculous speculation, not fun, was the theme. Therefore, how really difficult is it to find a pristine McGuire rookie?

The investment mentality regarding modern cards is simply flawed. Choosing such cards as a collectible is a matter of choice and is no better or worse than a card from any given year. However, modern baseball players are not companies, cards are not stocks. So and so may be the next Gehrig or Aaron in terms of playing ability, but no modern card will be the next T206 Wagner or '52 Mantle. A market? There is no market, but there are fads and popularity contests. Maybe one on any recent top 100 "hot player" will continue to be so years down the road. The '74 Topps Parker, '75 Lynn and Rice rookies, '77 Murphy, '80 Henderson, '83 Boggs, '85 Puckett, and scores of other recent investment touts have all fallen from grace.

The writing was on the wall back in the '80s, and people got out of purchasing modern cards as investments. Now, it starts again. Let's revisit the McGuire price one year from now and see how many regret selling today.

goudeygold · May 21, 2005 4:37PM

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMEN!!!!!!

No card that has fallen far from a peak will ever make it back for all the reasons you just stated.

GG

DeutscherGeist · January 3, 2007 5:41PM

It seems the sportswriters are not keen on putting McGwire in the HOF just yet. I will wait to purchase a PSA 9 after the ballot results. I would buy one at $30.

math4cards · January 3, 2007 5:55PM

The questions you must ask yourself about McGwire are these -

Can the card continue to go down? Yes, he could admit steroid use - he could miss the hall of fame on the first ballot - Griffey may pass him (only 20 back) by the next go around on the hall of fame balloting - there can be damning evidence found about that Balco leak since 8 of 10 players tested positive - names to be released.

So the question is will it dip VERY far if those above mentioned things happen? Maybe .75 of the 60?

Can the card jump up? If he gets to the hall of fame on this ballot - it will at least go to 1.5X maybe 2X those amounts for a while. I believe once in the hall of fame the testimonies and stuff will take a major back seat because he will have already been elected.

So the question is can you risk losing 15 dollars per card for the hope of making up to 60 per card? Can you see that the more of the firstly mentioned bad scenarios that happen can drop that card even further?

The Griffey card may be the one - he's already tied for 10th in home runs...he's only 6 away from being tied for 9th with Rafael Steroido, then he is only 4 from number 8 - Harmon Killebrew, then 10 from Mark InjectGwire, then 3 from Frank Robinson and then 2 from Steroid Sosa. That boils down to 26 homers moves him from 10th to 5th all time. Assuming Sosa isn't back. That would put him at 589 - only 11 from 600! The fact that he isn't a steroid user in anyone's mind - he could start receiving major props - and thus his upper deck card may take off - especially if Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa are proven guilty.

larryallen73 · January 3, 2007 11:55PM

There are so many McGwire rookies out there. Many unopened. I just can't see it as a very good investment. Same with Clemens while we are talking about '85's. I think in the future there will be MUCH more supply than demand.

RipublicaninMass · January 4, 2007 1:38AM

<< If I had to make a bet on Mac, I would look for the Tiffany RC. >>

yes tiffany is more rare, but easier to find in hi grade condition. I would to buy one just to have. If he gets inthe hall the prices will creep up, is it sell sell sell?

theczar · January 4, 2007 4:34AM

anyone want some 1988 donruss gregg jeffries. they were a short print for that company that year.

BobaFett72 · January 4, 2007 5:34AM

LOL i had soooo many Gregg Jefferies RC's. hundreds of them; what a total bust of a prospect.
I did sell quite a few of them for $8-$10 for a while when he was THE Prospect (1988)

ldferg · January 4, 2007 6:02AM

remember when you used to could purchase 800-1000 card lots of certain players?

80sJunkie · January 4, 2007 12:48PM

Well I'm sitting on about 150 85 mcgwires but I'm closing in on 1000 89 griffeys. Hope I'm making the right choice

Boopotts · January 4, 2007 1:17PM

<< Well I'm sitting on about 150 85 mcgwires but I'm closing in on 1000 89 griffeys. Hope I'm making the right choice

>>

You aren't.

It's one thing to hold on to cards because you like them. But if you're holding them for investment purposes you'll be sorely disappointed. You'd be much better off selling them now and buying some pre-war cards.

One of the great myths surrounding sports cards is the notion that elite HOF candidates-- not 'sliders' like Sutter or Mazeroski, but obvious first ballot guys-- will see a spike in the price of their cards once their officially inducted. The fact that they're going to the Hall is already factored in to the price of their cards. Nobody's going to wake up one morning and go "Jesus, Cal Ripken just got his ticket punched to Cooperstown. Man, that really snuck up on me! I'd better go out and horde a bunch of his RC's".

Look at Boggs, Sandberg, Puckett, and so on. None of these cards shot up in value after their induction. All of the post-1972 stuff--- and maybe all the post 1960 stuff, although that's a debate for another day-- will keep declining in price as more and more units find their way to the market.

stown · January 4, 2007 1:26PM

Sweet thread resurrection.

Had to scratch my head when I saw the author

SDavid · January 4, 2007 1:44PM

It's one thing to hold on to cards because you like them. But if you're holding them for investment purposes you'll be sorely disappointed.

Unless you wait until they die and list them on ebay during that exact day.

Boopotts · January 4, 2007 1:45PM

<< It's one thing to hold on to cards because you like them. But if you're holding them for investment purposes you'll be sorely disappointed.

Unless you wait until they die and list them on ebay during that exact day. >>

TheCARDKid · January 4, 2007 1:56PM

I remember one of the first lessons I learned in the card business (way back when I was 12, 13 years old, reading SCD, reading Mr Mints first book) was that buying modern players is always going to be more dangerous than buying Mantle or Ruth.

-What happens if McGwire's image gets worse and never recovers? There's a long list of players that use to be untouchable, that are now tainted forever (from OJ, to Darryl Strawberry to Rafi Palmeiro). If new information comes out, who's to say the PSA 9 can't slide to $20?

I learned from my 84-86 Star basketball days that modern stuff can go much lower than anyone ever expected.

-The good news with modern players is quickly discounted into the price of the card. You saw it with Jordan, Ripken, whoever.

-The pop report says there's been 45,000 McGwire's graded. Topps probably produced multiples of that # (5-10x that amount?). Supply could still go up dramatically. If demand stays flat to down, the price will keep going down.

Topps Tiffany might be a different story.

RedHeart54 · January 4, 2007 2:11PM

My feeling on this card is that it's a great card to have in your collection (especially in PSA 9/10 with perfect centering) for historical and collectable reasons but it will never again be a card to buy for investment reasons. There are just too many of them (although as I alluded, finding one with perfect centering and deep color is a challenge in itself).

DeutscherGeist · January 4, 2007 9:39PM

All I am wondering is that I think the baseball writers are not going to vote for him this time around. Once the results of the voting are released to the public and see no McGwire elected, then more of these cards will be dumped on the market to get rid of. Buying it now is not good because people still anticipate a possible induction. After failing to get in is an excellent time to buy. I am just looking for a sweet card for my collection, not necessarily investment. I sold raw cards of McGwire for $75 and $95. If I can get one slabbed for under $30, that would be sweet.

Right now, I am looking at this.LINKY

Stone193 · January 5, 2007 5:14AM

<< remember when you used to could purchase 800-1000 card lots of certain players? >>

Stone193 · January 5, 2007 5:21AM

Hoping that McGwire....

Personally?

I'm hoping that a Peking Duck flies into my mouth for dinner tonite.

85T McGwire - Buy Now?

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