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Who's next in the 500 HR Club?
jrdolan
Posts: 2,549 ✭✭
I was thinking about who will be next to join the 500 HR Club. It seems pretty settled for a few years. Among active players, Bonds, Sosa, Griffey and Palmeiro are already in. Here are the players who are theoretically within striking distance:
Fred McGriff, 493
Jeff Bagwell, 449
Frank Thomas, 436
Juan Gonzalez, 434
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Manny Ramierez, 398
Alex Rodriguez, 392
McGriff isn't officially retired, but he's old and unemployed. Gonzo and Big Hurt don't seem like they'll get there, considering their injuries and remaining playing years (I remember when Thomas seemed like a lock for 600). Can Bags or Sheffield play long enough without losing power? Seems unlikely.
Thome should get there in 2-3 years. Ramirez is a lock, barring catastrophic injury. A-Rod too, except more so. Alex could even sail past 600 without breaking a sweat, if he can stay healthy.
A few guys are building HOF careers who are good candidates way down the road: Pujols, Guerrero, etc. But they need to sustain for a lonnng time and stay healthy.
Fred McGriff, 493
Jeff Bagwell, 449
Frank Thomas, 436
Juan Gonzalez, 434
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Manny Ramierez, 398
Alex Rodriguez, 392
McGriff isn't officially retired, but he's old and unemployed. Gonzo and Big Hurt don't seem like they'll get there, considering their injuries and remaining playing years (I remember when Thomas seemed like a lock for 600). Can Bags or Sheffield play long enough without losing power? Seems unlikely.
Thome should get there in 2-3 years. Ramirez is a lock, barring catastrophic injury. A-Rod too, except more so. Alex could even sail past 600 without breaking a sweat, if he can stay healthy.
A few guys are building HOF careers who are good candidates way down the road: Pujols, Guerrero, etc. But they need to sustain for a lonnng time and stay healthy.
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1-Arod
2-Thome (if his back problems don't linger)
3-Manny
4-Sheffield
I think they're the only ones from the list to do it. I would say Bagwell, but his shoulder seems to be shot.
Mark
1-Bill Brasky
2-Ditka
3-Arod
4-Thome (if his back problems don't linger)
5-Manny
6-Sheffield
7-Steve Lombardozzi
92 bowman Ramirez rc
94 sp AROD rc
and thome....??? what his rC again??
i heard bagwell had a degenerative condition in his shoulder....being 28 and having a few degerative joints myself from football, too much weightlifting, and bad genetics....i can almost stay with 100% certainty that he will NOT reach 500 home runs
loth
<< <i>I would put them in this order, I believe:
1-Bill Brasky
2-Ditka
3-Arod
4-Thome (if his back problems don't linger)
5-Manny
6-Sheffield
7-Steve Lombardozzi >>
I think Andruw Jones could one day be a 500 guy..he has 250 right now and he is 28...he is a steady player.
I could see him getting an average of 25 homers a year for another 10 years.
Groucho Marx
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Alex Rodriguez, 392
Manny Ramierez, 398
Frank Thomas, 436
Fred McGriff, 493
Juan Gonzalez, 434 ???
I might just have to laugh at 800 hrs for AROD. I am sure you have heard of a guy named Ken Griffey, Jr. Hit the hell out of the ball for 10 years. 10 years is a long time in a major league career. Injuries, age, etc play a big roll in the outcome. Griffey will be lucky to hit 600 hrs. AROD will hit at least 500. Sorry, I wouldn't speculate about 600 or more.
Bagwell is next to join the 500 club.
<< <i>BigRedMachine,
I might just have to laugh at 800 hrs for AROD. I am sure you have heard of a guy named Ken Griffey, Jr. Hit the hell out of the ball for 10 years. 10 years is a long time in a major league career. Injuries, age, etc play a big roll in the outcome. Griffey will be lucky to hit 600 hrs. AROD will hit at least 500. Sorry, I wouldn't speculate about 600 or more.
Bagwell is next to join the 500 club. >>
A-Rod doesn't spend his time running into outfield walls.....
Bagwell? ......there is a chance that his career is over...
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If anyone will shatter Aaron's (or Bonds') record, it will be A-Rod, but there can't be any injuries or merely good years. They all have to be great.
<< <i>As long as Arod stays in Yankeeland he'll put up Dave Winfield type power numbers...... >>
dave who???
Lee
Lee
You asked if I've heard of Griffey Jr? That's the same Griffey I was referring to in my original post so I'm confused.
As for A-rod having the power numbers of Winfield. You kidding? Winfield had 34 homeruns one season as his BEST season. Arod will have that again by the end of July. The most powerful thing Winfield did was kill that seagull with a strong arm.
The biggest difference here is still age. Arod is 29. Manny is 33, Thome is 35, Bagwell 37. I'm not saying Arod WILL hit 800 because I realize the odds are stacked against him.
But if he hits 45 homers a year until he's 38, he'll be at 800. Not 500, not 600, not 700....800!!
I'm just saying it's possible and not laughable.
Oh, and he's got 393 now, another last night.
<< <i>I'm not laughing at the idea of A-Rod hitting 800 HRs, but 40+ every year for the next 10 years is a lot to expect. Of course, each year he hits 50 gains him a year that he only has to hit 30.
If anyone will shatter Aaron's (or Bonds') record, it will be A-Rod, but there can't be any injuries or merely good years. They all have to be great. >>
I think what works in Arod's favor is that he's never had any significant injuries. I can't help but think his incredible work ethic is at least partly to credit for that (along with some luck and great genes). The greatest of their particular sports, Jerry Rice and Wayne Gretzky also didn't miss any significant playing time for injury, and their workout ethic was attributed to it.
Yes of course it is the same Griffey, not the one who played in the 70's. That was a joke. A few years ago everyone thought Jeter was going to have 4,000 hits. He had quite a few years with 200 plus hits. Gooden was on pass for 300 wins and 4,000 strikeouts. Strawberry. 500 or 600 Hrs and 3,000 hits. We all know how those stories ended except for Jeter, and he probably will not end with even 3,000 hits. So, until it happens I just have to laugh.
Bagwell played with a bad shoulder last year. That is why cliff notes were the best. You could fast forward to the end.
back to the original question:
1. McGriff
2. Thomas
3. Bagwell
Are there any 500 HR hitters not in the HOF? If not, I'll bet McGriff will be the first not elected.
GG
Bagwell may be done as his shoulder is shot
Thomas was on the DL til just last week (he has the best shot of the 3)
My take on the next 500 homer guy is Jim Thome
McGriff might get hired by a team since he only needs a few more homers to get 500. He would be a good ticket seller so that fans can come in the ball park and hold up signs reading "7 more" "6 more" "5 more" The fans like doing that to milestone numbers. So, yes, McGriff will be that token player to fill the seats, if even that.
Sheffield played with a bad shoulder (nothing permanent, but it was a discomfort) last year and had one of the best seasons (3rd MVP)--he hit 36 homers. It is possible he will get over 450+ this season and might finish off with a big year next season to reach 500 (or at least really really close). He does not have any lingering injuires and he plays full time. He is a stud! I think he will make it. The 1st poster says that he cannot sustain his power numbers, but he has not dropped off yet. He won't drop this year. He may begin to drop next year, but even then he will be so close that he can still reach 500 homers. Keep in mind that his Batting average has increased over the years. He is NOT Dropping. Do not underestimate him.
Frank Thomas can still play, but he may be a DH. In his recent full season, he has shown he can still hit them out. Once he recovers from his injury, he is close enough to get 500 homers in 2 full seasons. This one will be almost a full season and next year should get him really really close.
I don't know what is up with Gonzo.
Overall, I understand why fans are interested in 500 homers. They have the 500 Home Run Club and sell memorobilia based on it as well. Home run totals are on the back of baseball cards and they look awesome when one observes it at a ball park. Its kind of like witnessing an explosion, a fire cracker bursting, its simply a sensational site attracting our senses of sight and sound. It is flambouyant! In reality, all it means is 1 or more points for the team. Doubles and triples have been known to have similar effects as well. Our culture simply admires home runs because it looks better than a double. However, home run totals are also a short sighted way to evaluate a player. Just because HRs grab our sensibilities and emotions, does not mean it is the all important stat. 500 homers today do not mean as much as it did in the 70's and 80's where the league average was lower than that of the 90's. I really don not care for 500 homers for that reason. I know it will sell tickets and I know it will cause some people to purchase cards, autos and bats, but I say to each his own. A player like Sheffield and Arod have been referred to as 5 point players. They run the base paths well. Meaning, they can go from second to home if the batter up can hit a single or double. That is valuable to a team. They can steal bases and that makes the pitcher lose his concentration. They can hit home runs, but they also hit singles and doubles to help their team. They can get on base and take walks, preventing outs. They also have good gloves, which a pitcher like Mussina appreciates since he is a finesse pitcher. Those qualities, other than HR, help a team too, but they may not be so sensational or pleasing to the fans eyes--that's all. The value placed on Home Runs over other stats are a mere function of perception.
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My favorite players have never been big HR hitting guys...first from Boggs in the 80s to Ichiro today, I place more value and hold in higher esteem guys who can go out and have batting .400 as their goal, not how many HR's they can hit. A power hitter typically suffers at the plate discipline game, because he's more willing to go after a 3-0 ball than taking the walk.
But you're right about the 500 HR mark being marketed in this country, and even ESPN is doing the countdown to 400 HR for Arod. Even though he's a bit behind some others, I think his overall health and ability will have Arod hitting 500 before the others.
I don't think any team is going to give McGriff the chance, unless they are way out of it in say July or August and they want to find a way to put butts in the stands. Other than that, it looks like he is done.
I agree, however that is a shame as he was always a class act.
<< <i>don't think any team is going to give McGriff the chance, unless they are way out of it in say July or August and they want to find a way to put butts in the stands. Other than that, it looks like he is done.
I agree, however that is a shame as he was always a class act. >>
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Fred McGriff, 493
Jeff Bagwell, 449
Frank Thomas, 436
Juan Gonzalez, 434
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Manny Ramierez, 398
Alex Rodriguez, 392
Trying to figure this out, it makes me realize how steep a mountain 500 really is, and what a rough time guys just a couple years older than me are having right now, with 4 of the top 5 on the DL. McGriff won't get another job. Gonzo has lost his power stroke, and seems to be on the extended DL. Thomas, while he already came back once with a 40-homer season after a bad injury, I think he'll be in the 20-30 homer range from now on. He's going to Triple-A for rehab for a bit, but with the White Sox doing so well, I wonder where he'll get the at-bats from. Could be traded if he shows he's got value. Bagwell, same thing. Sheffield and Ramirez will get there eventually, but not before A-Rod. But Thome, when he comes back, could still bash them with great frequency, and I think he'll pass everyone on the list to be the next to 500. At least, I think he might. He only had 1 homer in a month before the DL. Could be A-Rod zooms past everyone. He should pass 400 by the break, and could reach 415-425 by the end of the year. That puts him within range by 2007, which would be amazing.
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Lee
I wish someone would give him a DH/pinch-hitting job long enough to get 7 more HRs. He's a nice guy who had a steady, high-quality career. It's been said McGriff has had the quietest 493-HR career in history. Because of that, he probably won't get in the HOF. But if he gets to 500, they won't be able to keep him out.