Who's next in the 500 HR Club?

jrdolan

I was thinking about who will be next to join the 500 HR Club. It seems pretty settled for a few years. Among active players, Bonds, Sosa, Griffey and Palmeiro are already in. Here are the players who are theoretically within striking distance:

Fred McGriff, 493
Jeff Bagwell, 449
Frank Thomas, 436
Juan Gonzalez, 434
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Manny Ramierez, 398
Alex Rodriguez, 392

McGriff isn't officially retired, but he's old and unemployed. Gonzo and Big Hurt don't seem like they'll get there, considering their injuries and remaining playing years (I remember when Thomas seemed like a lock for 600). Can Bags or Sheffield play long enough without losing power? Seems unlikely.

Thome should get there in 2-3 years. Ramirez is a lock, barring catastrophic injury. A-Rod too, except more so. Alex could even sail past 600 without breaking a sweat, if he can stay healthy.

A few guys are building HOF careers who are good candidates way down the road: Pujols, Guerrero, etc. But they need to sustain for a lonnng time and stay healthy.

BigRedMachine

Arod will sail past 800 home runs if nothing there are no catastrophies. Laugh if you want, but he's hit 50+ home runs for a couple years, if he hits 40+ home runs until he's 40, he'll be over 800. Modern day guys do not get much respect, and he could always pull a Griffey (another guy who was on pace to hit 800) but mathematically he's on his way. He's the next to hit 500 IMO, and Manny will probably follow.

mudflap02

I heard Bill Brasky hit 800 home runs in one game.

baseballfanatic

As long as Arod stays in Yankeeland he'll put up Dave Winfield type power numbers......

gosteelers

In this order, I believe:

1-Arod
2-Thome (if his back problems don't linger)
3-Manny
4-Sheffield

I think they're the only ones from the list to do it. I would say Bagwell, but his shoulder seems to be shot.

Mark

jrdolan

So Thome's back is hurt enough that A-Rod will hit 108 and Manny will hit 102 before Thome can hit 76? I don't follow the Senior Circuit closely, but I thought he was coming back this weekend.

mudflap02

I would put them in this order, I believe:

1-Bill Brasky
2-Ditka
3-Arod
4-Thome (if his back problems don't linger)
5-Manny
6-Sheffield
7-Steve Lombardozzi

Lothar52

so u all think a good investment would be:

92 bowman Ramirez rc
94 sp AROD rc
and thome....??? what his rC again??


i heard bagwell had a degenerative condition in his shoulder....being 28 and having a few degerative joints myself from football, too much weightlifting, and bad genetics....i can almost stay with 100% certainty that he will NOT reach 500 home runs

loth

pandrews

<< <i>I would put them in this order, I believe:

1-Bill Brasky
2-Ditka
3-Arod
4-Thome (if his back problems don't linger)
5-Manny
6-Sheffield
7-Steve Lombardozzi >>

calleocho

Arod its a monster, if he doesnt get hurt who knows what numbers he might put up.

I think Andruw Jones could one day be a 500 guy..he has 250 right now and he is 28...he is a steady player.

I could see him getting an average of 25 homers a year for another 10 years.

PenguinContact

Jeff Bagwell, 449
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Alex Rodriguez, 392
Manny Ramierez, 398
Frank Thomas, 436
Fred McGriff, 493
Juan Gonzalez, 434 ???

jayhawke

BigRedMachine,

I might just have to laugh at 800 hrs for AROD. I am sure you have heard of a guy named Ken Griffey, Jr. Hit the hell out of the ball for 10 years. 10 years is a long time in a major league career. Injuries, age, etc play a big roll in the outcome. Griffey will be lucky to hit 600 hrs. AROD will hit at least 500. Sorry, I wouldn't speculate about 600 or more.

Bagwell is next to join the 500 club.

lostdart58

<< <i>BigRedMachine,

I might just have to laugh at 800 hrs for AROD. I am sure you have heard of a guy named Ken Griffey, Jr. Hit the hell out of the ball for 10 years. 10 years is a long time in a major league career. Injuries, age, etc play a big roll in the outcome. Griffey will be lucky to hit 600 hrs. AROD will hit at least 500. Sorry, I wouldn't speculate about 600 or more.

Bagwell is next to join the 500 club. >>



A-Rod doesn't spend his time running into outfield walls.....


Bagwell? ......there is a chance that his career is over...

jrdolan

I'm not laughing at the idea of A-Rod hitting 800 HRs, but 40+ every year for the next 10 years is a lot to expect. Of course, each year he hits 50 gains him a year that he only has to hit 30.

If anyone will shatter Aaron's (or Bonds') record, it will be A-Rod, but there can't be any injuries or merely good years. They all have to be great.

pc

<< <i>As long as Arod stays in Yankeeland he'll put up Dave Winfield type power numbers...... >>



dave who???

CDsNuts

Bill Brasky stands about 12 foot four, 926 lbs. He once threw a perfect game and hit 8 home runs, then fathered 5 of my children. Here's to Bill Brasky!!

Lee

CDsNuts

The next guy to 500? Clearly Brian Roberts.

Lee

BigRedMachine

Jayhawke,
You asked if I've heard of Griffey Jr? That's the same Griffey I was referring to in my original post so I'm confused.

As for A-rod having the power numbers of Winfield. You kidding? Winfield had 34 homeruns one season as his BEST season. Arod will have that again by the end of July. The most powerful thing Winfield did was kill that seagull with a strong arm.

The biggest difference here is still age. Arod is 29. Manny is 33, Thome is 35, Bagwell 37. I'm not saying Arod WILL hit 800 because I realize the odds are stacked against him.

But if he hits 45 homers a year until he's 38, he'll be at 800. Not 500, not 600, not 700....800!!
I'm just saying it's possible and not laughable.

Oh, and he's got 393 now, another last night.

Axtell

<< <i>I'm not laughing at the idea of A-Rod hitting 800 HRs, but 40+ every year for the next 10 years is a lot to expect. Of course, each year he hits 50 gains him a year that he only has to hit 30.

If anyone will shatter Aaron's (or Bonds') record, it will be A-Rod, but there can't be any injuries or merely good years. They all have to be great. >>



I think what works in Arod's favor is that he's never had any significant injuries. I can't help but think his incredible work ethic is at least partly to credit for that (along with some luck and great genes). The greatest of their particular sports, Jerry Rice and Wayne Gretzky also didn't miss any significant playing time for injury, and their workout ethic was attributed to it.

jayhawke

BigRedMachine,

Yes of course it is the same Griffey, not the one who played in the 70's. That was a joke. A few years ago everyone thought Jeter was going to have 4,000 hits. He had quite a few years with 200 plus hits. Gooden was on pass for 300 wins and 4,000 strikeouts. Strawberry. 500 or 600 Hrs and 3,000 hits. We all know how those stories ended except for Jeter, and he probably will not end with even 3,000 hits. So, until it happens I just have to laugh.

Bagwell played with a bad shoulder last year. That is why cliff notes were the best. You could fast forward to the end.

goudeygold

Remember with these modern cards them hitting 600+ HR is already factored into the price, so i wouldn't be concerned with loading up on Manny cards right before he hits 500 HR thinking you can flip them for decent profit. Even if Arod continues his pace, his RC probably isn't going to move much if any. The whole key with this modern money making is simply to get in early and sell as soon as it jumps.

back to the original question:

1. McGriff
2. Thomas
3. Bagwell

Are there any 500 HR hitters not in the HOF? If not, I'll bet McGriff will be the first not elected.

GG

WinPitcher

Is McGriff even playing this year?

Bagwell may be done as his shoulder is shot

Thomas was on the DL til just last week (he has the best shot of the 3)

My take on the next 500 homer guy is Jim Thome

DeutscherGeist

Bagwell might be finished. One has to really know what is inside his shoulder to determine this. It may be treatable so that he can squeak out 500 homers, or maybe he cannot lift his arm anymore. Wait and See.

McGriff might get hired by a team since he only needs a few more homers to get 500. He would be a good ticket seller so that fans can come in the ball park and hold up signs reading "7 more" "6 more" "5 more" The fans like doing that to milestone numbers. So, yes, McGriff will be that token player to fill the seats, if even that.

Sheffield played with a bad shoulder (nothing permanent, but it was a discomfort) last year and had one of the best seasons (3rd MVP)--he hit 36 homers. It is possible he will get over 450+ this season and might finish off with a big year next season to reach 500 (or at least really really close). He does not have any lingering injuires and he plays full time. He is a stud! I think he will make it. The 1st poster says that he cannot sustain his power numbers, but he has not dropped off yet. He won't drop this year. He may begin to drop next year, but even then he will be so close that he can still reach 500 homers. Keep in mind that his Batting average has increased over the years. He is NOT Dropping. Do not underestimate him.

Frank Thomas can still play, but he may be a DH. In his recent full season, he has shown he can still hit them out. Once he recovers from his injury, he is close enough to get 500 homers in 2 full seasons. This one will be almost a full season and next year should get him really really close.

I don't know what is up with Gonzo.





Overall, I understand why fans are interested in 500 homers. They have the 500 Home Run Club and sell memorobilia based on it as well. Home run totals are on the back of baseball cards and they look awesome when one observes it at a ball park. Its kind of like witnessing an explosion, a fire cracker bursting, its simply a sensational site attracting our senses of sight and sound. It is flambouyant! In reality, all it means is 1 or more points for the team. Doubles and triples have been known to have similar effects as well. Our culture simply admires home runs because it looks better than a double. However, home run totals are also a short sighted way to evaluate a player. Just because HRs grab our sensibilities and emotions, does not mean it is the all important stat. 500 homers today do not mean as much as it did in the 70's and 80's where the league average was lower than that of the 90's. I really don not care for 500 homers for that reason. I know it will sell tickets and I know it will cause some people to purchase cards, autos and bats, but I say to each his own. A player like Sheffield and Arod have been referred to as 5 point players. They run the base paths well. Meaning, they can go from second to home if the batter up can hit a single or double. That is valuable to a team. They can steal bases and that makes the pitcher lose his concentration. They can hit home runs, but they also hit singles and doubles to help their team. They can get on base and take walks, preventing outs. They also have good gloves, which a pitcher like Mussina appreciates since he is a finesse pitcher. Those qualities, other than HR, help a team too, but they may not be so sensational or pleasing to the fans eyes--that's all. The value placed on Home Runs over other stats are a mere function of perception.

DeutscherGeist

Thome is close, but he may have a bad back. It could happen all in one day.

Axtell

The Home Run is truly an american phenomenon. It embodies the american ideal of being bigger and better than everyone, of being able to affect change in fell swoop.

My favorite players have never been big HR hitting guys...first from Boggs in the 80s to Ichiro today, I place more value and hold in higher esteem guys who can go out and have batting .400 as their goal, not how many HR's they can hit. A power hitter typically suffers at the plate discipline game, because he's more willing to go after a 3-0 ball than taking the walk.

But you're right about the 500 HR mark being marketed in this country, and even ESPN is doing the countdown to 400 HR for Arod. Even though he's a bit behind some others, I think his overall health and ability will have Arod hitting 500 before the others.

I don't think any team is going to give McGriff the chance, unless they are way out of it in say July or August and they want to find a way to put butts in the stands. Other than that, it looks like he is done.

WinPitcher

don't think any team is going to give McGriff the chance, unless they are way out of it in say July or August and they want to find a way to put butts in the stands. Other than that, it looks like he is done.


I agree, however that is a shame as he was always a class act.

matrixbend247

arod will hit a bunch of homers, but lets not forget left centerfield in yankee stadium, last righty to hit 40 homers was joe d.. figure 35/yr for 10 years gives arod "only" 750 or so. matrix

Axtell

<< <i>don't think any team is going to give McGriff the chance, unless they are way out of it in say July or August and they want to find a way to put butts in the stands. Other than that, it looks like he is done.


I agree, however that is a shame as he was always a class act. >>



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helionaut

Of this list

Fred McGriff, 493
Jeff Bagwell, 449
Frank Thomas, 436
Juan Gonzalez, 434
Jim Thome, 424
Gary Sheffield, 420
Manny Ramierez, 398
Alex Rodriguez, 392

Trying to figure this out, it makes me realize how steep a mountain 500 really is, and what a rough time guys just a couple years older than me are having right now, with 4 of the top 5 on the DL. McGriff won't get another job. Gonzo has lost his power stroke, and seems to be on the extended DL. Thomas, while he already came back once with a 40-homer season after a bad injury, I think he'll be in the 20-30 homer range from now on. He's going to Triple-A for rehab for a bit, but with the White Sox doing so well, I wonder where he'll get the at-bats from. Could be traded if he shows he's got value. Bagwell, same thing. Sheffield and Ramirez will get there eventually, but not before A-Rod. But Thome, when he comes back, could still bash them with great frequency, and I think he'll pass everyone on the list to be the next to 500. At least, I think he might. He only had 1 homer in a month before the DL. Could be A-Rod zooms past everyone. He should pass 400 by the break, and could reach 415-425 by the end of the year. That puts him within range by 2007, which would be amazing.

CDsNuts

I'm not sure how debilitating McGriff's injuries are, but I think an AL team in need of a DH would give him a shot if he has two legs to stand on. I've seen players worse off get contracts from teams needing a bat to cover an injury during a pennant run. Defnitely a class act, but I don't think he gets into the Hall even with the 500.

Lee

jrdolan

I don't think Crime Dog is hurt. He was working out at home this spring, hoping for an invitation that never came. The Rays cut him last year to make room for younger players, which is understandable in their position. Fred popped a few HRs for them but otherwise didn't hit well before he was dumped.

I wish someone would give him a DH/pinch-hitting job long enough to get 7 more HRs. He's a nice guy who had a steady, high-quality career. It's been said McGriff has had the quietest 493-HR career in history. Because of that, he probably won't get in the HOF. But if he gets to 500, they won't be able to keep him out.