POLL: If the value of your collection and the rest of the rare coin market dropped by 75% overnight.

lclugza · April 16, 2005 4:31AM

would you be happy, sad, or have mixed emotions?

Edited to add- and tell me why you feel the way you do, if you wish.

ARCO · April 16, 2005 4:44AM

Coin collecting is fun because of the perceived value of the coins. If coins were worth face value I would find something else to do. I love money as much as my coins and if they lost their value I would be ticked off.

Tyler

markglicker · April 16, 2005 4:48AM

Not sure how I would feel, but there would be a whole bunch of bellyaching, on this forum.

mgoodm3 · April 16, 2005 4:49AM

I'm in it for the long run, but I'd be a little sad a bout the drop. Markets cycle. Take advantage and buy more.

Mrpawn · April 16, 2005 4:52AM

Costs drop = Buying opportunity for the old Type Set

kranky · April 16, 2005 4:59AM

I would be a little sad about the nicer coins I got in the last couple years, but overall happier because I'd stock up like crazy. The thought that occurred to me is which dealers would still be around to buy from?

Shamika · April 16, 2005 5:00AM

I have no opinion- I just want to see the results.

Russ · April 16, 2005 5:04AM

<< If the value of your collection dropped by 75% overnight... >>

I would still be in a profit position.

Russ, NCNE

kranky · April 16, 2005 5:12AM

<< I would still be in a profit position.

Russ, NCNE >>

Including costs of submissions? Outstanding!

Baley · April 16, 2005 5:18AM

If prices fell 75% across the board, I'd finally (finally!) get those small eagle silver coins I need so bad.

edit: not to mention the early gold and copper! Back up the truck!!

Russ · April 16, 2005 5:21AM

<< Including costs of submissions? >>

By a wide margin. I've been lucky enough to have my share of winners along the way to compensate for the misses. But even the misses these days tend to be at least breakeven, and many are profitable. The only real money losing aspect now is liquidating sets and extras that didn't pan out, but a $15 to $20 set sold at a 50% loss only amounts to a few dollars. My purchases are all about the downside/upside ratio.

Russ, NCNE

TommyType · April 16, 2005 5:27AM

There are only two prices that matter:

#1 - What you bought at
#2 - What you sell at

Anything that happens between those two is completely unimportant. For that reason, and the fact that I don't plan to sell for 15 or 20 years, I'd be mainly happy because #1 just dropped, and there's plenty of time for #2 to recover.

mrearlygold · April 16, 2005 5:37AM

The interesting part is that most people don't think this is possible .

Tom

TheRaven · April 16, 2005 5:41AM

I would be sad for some of my purchases would really suck short term.....

But I would have a blast at coin shows.....

oreville · April 16, 2005 5:43AM

I am waiting for the soft market to hit by this summer. I predicted that last year. A needed slow down.

cladking · April 16, 2005 6:36AM

<< 

<< Including costs of submissions? >>

>>

I've yet to incur this cost.

A 75% drop in "not enough" is of no consequence to me. If these specific
coins were to drop though it would spook me pretty badly since it would
seem to be a total capitulation by the market in the future viability of the
hobby.

It would probably make me slow down and pay more attention to tokens,
medals and darkside.

I went with "mixed emotions".

jdimmick · April 16, 2005 7:23AM

A few coins I would take a bath on, several I would come out near even, some I would still be ahead.

But in honesty, I would be thinking I wish I had sold them all!!!!!!

CarlSpangler · April 16, 2005 7:47AM

Only slightly dissapointed. I would be very happy that more desireable coins would fall into my price range.

Cratylus · April 16, 2005 8:25AM

<< Coin collecting is fun because of the perceived value of the coins. If coins were worth face value I would find something else to do. I love money as much as my coins and if they lost their value I would be ticked off. >>

Tyler, if and when the coin market crashes, I will gladly take the Barber Halves off your hands so you don't have to suffer with the idea of owning them.

Seriously though, keep in mind that perceived value is different than market value. For proof of this, I give you the 1893-S Morgan Dollar and the 1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent in VF-XF condition. Go to any halfway decent sized coin show in the country and you can find several examples of these two coins on every bourse floor. They are in high demand, but they are also commonly found. Perceived value says they are worth a premium over what the market value is, but I doubt that the selling prices of these coins would bear that out. Perception says they are worth X, and you can probably pick them up for just a teeny tiny percentage over X.

Now, take a 1904-S Barber Half. According to perceived value, this coin is worth less than the two coins I cited above. However, not only will you NEVER find one on a bourse floor, but if you do stumble across one, prepare to pay MULTIPLE times what the price guides say. Why? Market value. Their market value is a lot greater, despite what the perception might be.

prooflike · April 16, 2005 8:45AM

I would be dancin' !! I'd be saving $$$ on future purchases!!

carl · April 16, 2005 8:48AM

I'm a coin collector and have no interest in the market value until I go to buy a coin. No interest in the distant future of coin values at all. At my age and health, I'm just luck that there is a tomorrow. As a person that has seen market crashes where I lost lots in stocks, lost lots in 401K's, lost lots in IRA's, saw a company's, where I worked, profit sharing go down the toilet, I'm glad to say my coins have done alright over the years. However, if the coin market dropped way down I'd be so used to it by now I'd probably just say OH NUTS, coins tooooooooooooooo.

topstuf · April 16, 2005 8:55AM

Poll has no "Slit wrists" option.

Sure, sure, just SHOW me the frenzied buying at lower levels.

Won't happen. Suddenly no one will "need" any more falling coins.

Ebay will go belly up (or at least "reconsider" many banned items)

Grading services will be SWAMPED with lawsuits (cuz the NEW standards will be so strict that if a coin has left the mint, it is circulated)

Soup kitchen tickets will be the new collectible.

The sun will go dark.

roadrunner · April 16, 2005 10:14AM

I'd be quite unhappy with a 75% drop.

Thanks Topstuff. I recognized the top coming in the 1979 market and didn't buy a coin from late 1979 to mid-1982 when the bottom hit. I was a pure collector back then but I didn't want to lose $$ either. I cashed out of all my junk and marginal pieces in early 1980. But what I did keep still fell in value a lot. As you said, I wasn't out there buying up all the bargains. No one was buying.
And once things picked up in 1983 all the nice coins disappeared very quickly. Anyone who bought "bargains" in the down years of
1991-1994 got their butts kicked. Forget cost averaging. You got hammered unless you waited until 1996-1997. Everything but key dates and Washington quarters that is.

roadrunner

mrearlygold · April 16, 2005 10:19AM

Anyone who bought "bargains" in the down years of
1991-1994 got their butts kicked. Forget cost averaging. You got hammered unless you waited until 1996-1997. Everything but key dates and Washington quarters that is.

roadrunner >>

Bust dollars and early gold too

Tom

mrearlygold · April 16, 2005 10:22AM

Oops and patterns

roadrunner · April 16, 2005 10:30AM

Yeah Tom, I left out a few things. But the more promoted coins like commems, Morgans, type silver, gold and nickel got wasted. Some better date 20th century high grade coins like Buffs did ok too. This was just the first step of the registry coming into its own even if no registry existed. Early bust and gold in less than gem grade was still collector oriented and it held. I wonder what would be considered collector oriented this time, that has not yet been promoted to the sky, that will hold its value? Not even common wheaties would be exempt. Nor key dates imo. Scarce dated circ coins might be the one area (mint marked Morgans and Barbers and Buffs for example in Fine-AU).

roadrunner

ER · April 16, 2005 10:33AM

Buy more and more.

solid · April 16, 2005 10:45AM

Based on the assumption of your poll, that the market dropped 75% overnight, I voted that
I would be very happy. I consider most of the coins I have now to be keepers, and this would
enable me to buy more.

However, it doesn't really work this way - whether it takes 3 months, 6 months, a year, or five
years, a downturn of this significance would be a scary ride as nobody could predict where the
bottom would be found, or when the right time to start buying again would occur.

Let's say that all coins start losing 15% of today's value per year. After three years, coins would
be just over half the cost that they are today, but who would have the confidence to buy them
after seeing three straight years of decline?

Ken

nwcs · April 16, 2005 11:28AM

Very mixed. I'd hate to see some of them lose value but would like to be able to buy some again.

messydesk · April 16, 2005 11:35AM

People that were still putting together sets of circ. Merc. dimes, silver Washington quarters, Walking halves, Franklins, etc., through the silver run-up of the late '70s have been there, as have those buying generic MS65 slabs in the late '80s. They probably feel a bit jaded, as would I were this to happen to me. This is why I don't collect übergrade modern proofs.

mirabela · April 16, 2005 11:49AM

I'd be bummed. But seriously now, do any of us here think the fall is going to be as bad as that this time? What goes up goes down, sure, but most things aren't anywhere close to '89 levels now -- the market as a whole has been active and bullish but not completely crazy. Short of a full-on economic meltdown involving much more than the rare coin market -- in which case the worth of my coin collection will suddenly become a pretty trivial concern -- why on earth would it fall by that much?

Let's make this real -- if it fell 75%, a 16-D merc in Good will sell for $200 or less. An MS65 Saint sells for less than today's ounce of bullion gold. A type date no-motto seated half in AU58 sells for 50 bucks. CC-mint DMPLS in MS64 go for a schmidge over $100. Circulated early dollars with decent eye appeal for 500. Et cetera, et cetera.

Again, short of a full-on depression, what is there to make that happen? Your thoughts, anyone?

I'm anticipating something more on the order of just stagnation, or a 10-20% correction. Even that's enough to smarten me up, because in the recent environment I've been able to break even on my "mistakes" by just waiting a little while before selling. I expect those days are numbered.

DHeath · April 16, 2005 12:22PM

What happened to the rare stamp market?

mrearlygold · April 16, 2005 12:25PM

<< What happened to the rare stamp market? >>

DHeath · April 16, 2005 12:37PM

I was just wondering as we talk of market timing whether the stamp collectors continued to buy as their market went south, with the expectation of a return?

OKbustchaser · April 17, 2005 11:07PM

I'd be dancing in the streets. Still buying as everyone else bailed out. I collect coins. Since none of them are for sale--nor will they be until my heirs try to cash out--I couldn't care less what my collection is worth, now or in the future.

Jim

TerrapinWill · April 18, 2005 1:37AM

I would be OK with it since I collect only modern stuff, plus some morgans.....it would give me a shot at owning some coins I mioght not otherwise be able to afford...

eyoung429 · April 18, 2005 1:46AM

This would allow me to buy higher quality coins for the price of the standards now. I have quite a few but none that would bring anything near a 4 digit price value.

Woodwind · April 18, 2005 1:49AM

I selected mostly happy/little sad. I'm not planning on selling anything in the near future, and I'd be happy to acquire more coins at lower prices. The only reason I would be a little sad about it is if an unlikely event happened in my life that forced me to sell more of my collection, I'd either get less money, or have to sell more to obtain the necessary amount of money I would need.

AgMe · April 18, 2005 1:49AM

Since I'm a collector, it would make my future/current purchases cheaper.

Always a good thing.

-g

DHeath · April 18, 2005 2:46AM

The interesting part is that most people don't think this is possible .

I understand most of the money lost in the 29 stock market crash was lost after the initial collapse, as most investors couldn't comprehend the market getting any lower in subsequent sessions. They kept re-investing believing it had bottomed. The same was true to a lesser extent during the tech stock crash. I'd imagine it was similarly true during the 89 coin crash. Sometimes it is difficult to catch a falling dagger. I think I'd stick to buying coins with "discretionary" income, and buy for enjoyment while I waited to see another bull. Dealers HAVE to buy and sell in a down market, collectors don't. It's easier to overpay a little during a run-up than to underpay in a downturn. I'd imagine in a real downturn, I might not be the only one with that point of view. JMO

coynclecter · April 18, 2005 2:57AM

<< why on earth would it fall by that much? >>

The ones that would fall the most would not be the colector coins (16D dimes etc) but the"investor" coins. MS67 Gold , top pop stuff. The ones that are cherished by the unknowing investor in a hot market and dumped fast in a falling market.

Expect all generic hi grade stuff to dump 50-80% and rarer items to go down 10-30%.

Of course the real question is WHEN will it happen and how much higher will it go before it does.

RYK · April 18, 2005 3:06AM

I had done a similar survey recently. Link

I would be mostly happy for the ability to buy more coins at a lower price. There are quite a few coins that I would love to own that are sadly out of my price range.

Myqqy · April 18, 2005 3:40AM

Poll has no "Slit wrists" option.
The sun will go dark.

I think there would be quite a bit of this......

POLL: If the value of your collection and the rest of the rare coin market dropped by 75% overnight.

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