A look at hoarding coins, gold, commodities, etc.
roadrunner
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I found this article on www.financialsense.com rather fascinating.
While somewhat long (30 minutes or longer to digest), it offers some very useful insights into hoarding and speculation of commodity markets such as numismatics vs. bonds. Most useful to me, is that this sort of explains why we hoard "things" today
(beenie babies, Beatle cards, antiques, etc.) rather than save "cash" in the bank like our forefathers. Yes, we coin collectors are "hoarders" even if we don't know it.
Premise of the article concerns the 50-60 year long Kondratiev cycle that seems to explain our longer term economic cycles. For me, this put together a number of basic principles that I had trouble tying together over the past few years. Bonds, gold, stocks, commodites, etc. discussed in laymen's terms.
This is 30-45 minutes very well spent, especially to those (like me) who start to turn the page after the first paragraph fails to excite.
To those that take the effort to read this, it's time well spent. It's a good thing that 2004 saw an infusion of $430 billion from home-equity loans to keep pumping money into "things."
Kondratiev cycles
roadrunner
While somewhat long (30 minutes or longer to digest), it offers some very useful insights into hoarding and speculation of commodity markets such as numismatics vs. bonds. Most useful to me, is that this sort of explains why we hoard "things" today
(beenie babies, Beatle cards, antiques, etc.) rather than save "cash" in the bank like our forefathers. Yes, we coin collectors are "hoarders" even if we don't know it.
Premise of the article concerns the 50-60 year long Kondratiev cycle that seems to explain our longer term economic cycles. For me, this put together a number of basic principles that I had trouble tying together over the past few years. Bonds, gold, stocks, commodites, etc. discussed in laymen's terms.
This is 30-45 minutes very well spent, especially to those (like me) who start to turn the page after the first paragraph fails to excite.
To those that take the effort to read this, it's time well spent. It's a good thing that 2004 saw an infusion of $430 billion from home-equity loans to keep pumping money into "things."
Kondratiev cycles
roadrunner
0
Comments
and the effects of their past and future actions. The author takes a leap when he suggests that
hoarding is the mechanism by which the long range movement occurs and a far greater leap when
he promotes gold as the answer. The article is very well written and thought out otherwise and
does provide many insights into nature and man.
roadrunner
Reading the Kondratiev Articles allowed me to use this one....
Now before you retaliate, I've already included a forum symbol on this thread against myself anticipating your response in order to save you the effort.
(p.s. The reason I "hoard" (collect) coins is because I like them and not necessarily for their investment potential. My "investment cycles" are normally after payday provided the trailer payment has been made and I have enough beer to last me to next payday!
If I only had a dollar for every VAM I have...err...nevermind...I do!!
My "Fun With 21D" Die State Collection - QX5 Pics Attached
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2 –DAMMIT BOY!!! ® Awards
roadrunner
michael
<< <i>... I think the hoarding issue is important. Given the fact that Americans cannot or won't hoard gold (due to all the pressures put on us since 1934 to ignore it), it pretty much leaves other "things" to take up the slack for paltry returns offer by banks and lenders. Hence to move to put one's money into real estate, homes, oil, soybeans, key industrial metals, coins, art, collector cars, sugar, oranges, home-run baseballs, etc.
roadrunner >>
I agree that the hoarding is real and had never really thought of it in these terms. It's even
probable that the hoarding itself is a causative factor in the observed ocillation but there are
likely other powerfull factors driving this cycle. Human population and demographic changes
alone tend to create huge swings in demand that would swamp the changes in hoarding when
all else is equal. Certainly these swings tend to be directed more at specific commodities than
commodities as a whole but due to changing individual productivity over a lifetime there is still
a substantial impact on total aggregate hoarding.
It should also be pointed out that if this were the primary cause of hoarding then its effect would
be diminished as out society has shifted strongly to credit and a consumer basis; people don't
do a lot of borrowing to purchase gold or orange juice for speculation.
It is a fascinating concept which warrants further observation and thought.