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WHEN WILL SLABBING SLOW DOWN?
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
WHEN WILL SLABBING SLOW DOWN?
In one of the recent threads Wingedliberty said “NGC grades about 80,000 coins a month on average. That should give you some perspective as to market share. PCGS grades about 70,000 and ANACS grades about 45,000.” We can assume that is correct, so what is everyone’s estimate as to how long this can go on? Although there are some novices that submit coins to be slabbed that will not be valued at much more than the slab price, most collectors and dealers know better, and keep their cheaper coins raw. How long can this pace continue? At the current pace the top 3 are slabbing nearly 200,000 coins per month or 2, 400,000 per years, and millions have already been slabbed. Even taking into account resubmitals we have not counted all other slabbing companies. Does anyone see a slow down in the slabbing process anytime soon?
In one of the recent threads Wingedliberty said “NGC grades about 80,000 coins a month on average. That should give you some perspective as to market share. PCGS grades about 70,000 and ANACS grades about 45,000.” We can assume that is correct, so what is everyone’s estimate as to how long this can go on? Although there are some novices that submit coins to be slabbed that will not be valued at much more than the slab price, most collectors and dealers know better, and keep their cheaper coins raw. How long can this pace continue? At the current pace the top 3 are slabbing nearly 200,000 coins per month or 2, 400,000 per years, and millions have already been slabbed. Even taking into account resubmitals we have not counted all other slabbing companies. Does anyone see a slow down in the slabbing process anytime soon?
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and every year, there are new coins....
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Tony
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
No!
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
<< <i>Mark my words....the OVER slabbing of new stuff will hurt our beloved hobby long term folks...WATCH in a couple years when people think that "TREASURE" they cracked out of a mint set or proof set that was worth a little more than face value plus the slabbing fees tries to actually sell these coins for hundreds if not thousands (I am talking a couple years from now)...all hell will be breaking lose then >>
OK. Which part of millions of new collectors is it that bothers you.
Essentially what you are saying here is that the trend to seek the finest coins will reverse
or that moderns are not collectible. The only other possibility is that you think that there
are hundreds of millions of all these coins still sitting in bags waiting for someone to come
along and cherry pick them and the market will crash.
1. If the trend toward seeking the finest grade reverses then there will be far bigger problems
than a few moderns losing hundreds of dollars in value. What about the huge numbers of clas-
sics losing thousands and tens of thousands of dollars in value. You want to see all hell break
loose then check back after those gem indians are worth a few times the AU price.
2 It's not impossible that people will stop collecting moderns, but what is going to lead them
to stop? The sudden realization perhaps that the Jefferson nickel doesn't have a quarter's worth
of silver in it to protect them on the down side? The fact hat Ikes aren't made of precious gold
which will always have value regardless what happens to pop tops?
People are beginning to collect post 1964 coinage for the first time ever. It's probably never tak-
en longer for new coins to become popular. Why would everyone suddenly decide to no longer
collect them?
3 If you really think that there are so many high grade clad coins out there why don't you come up
with some? It's easy now days with the internet. Find us a bag of 1980-D quarters. Hell, try com-
ing up with a roll that isn't from a mint set. Find a single or two. Any date other than 1976, 1965,
or 1998. No states issues, these have to be obsolete eagle reverse. Chances are you aren't go-
ing to find much for two simple reasons and they are that there is still virtually no demand for these
coins because this market is so small and the other is that there is virtually NO SUPPLY. If there
were a supply the coins would be almost universally junk in a "bank-wrapped" roll. They would be
struck weakly by poorly aligned dies which were badly worn. The coin would look like it had then
gone through a meat grinder. This is one of the biggest reason that there is almost no supply; no
one wanted to save coins that looked so bad.
Slabbing will not slow down because there will always be more to slab. It's all coins
that flow into the services from old time collections to upgrade candidates. There are
new coins, world coins, tokens and medals. None of these will ever run low to be slabbed
but before they could there will be new demands by collectors for new grades and newer
standards. The services will keep up with the changes in the coins and the collectors or
they'll be replaced by those that will. The rate that coins are slabbed will always be more
determined by the overall health of the market than by the number of coins available to grade.
Of note, state quarters are not the biggest item, MS gold bullion is (56.6K), followed by PR state quarters (25.5K) and MS platinum bullion (20.9K).
So what else is being slabbed so much? Here are a few (although these built over almost 20 years) for thought. Even with the 20 years, the number of Morgans being graded each year is likely more than the number of gold bullion coins.
- 1,543K Morgan Dollars
- 500,000 $20 Saints
- 295K $20 Libs
- 300K classic silver commems
- 255K Walking Liberty Halves
- 135K Buffalo Nickels
- 140K Mercury Dimes
- 14K Indian Cents
Maybe HRH or staff can chime in with an analysis of their stats--they may not want to reveal to the competition.
I was wondering the same thing the other day.
Nice analysis itsnotjustme.
-Dan
Why are people paying millions of dollars to slab gold and silver eagle bullion coins? It makes no sense whatever -- there are so many of them, they are never going to appreciate, no matter the grade.
Look at the pop report for 2003 $50 GAEs. There are 19,898 MS69s, and even 278 MS70s.
Twenty thousand pristine 1 ounce encapsulated gold bullion eagles. Ridiculous.
i'll do you one better--------outstanding posts by Brian and Sam which will probaly be hit by collectors who need to slam moderns for whatever reason. i've always neen amazed by the sheer number of the Morgan and St. Gauden Bullion coins that are holdered. nothing wrong with that, but the numbers are always, always, always overlooked when those with whatever agenda point the crooked finger at modern this or modern that. for kripe sake, why does it always get turned into that idiotic squabble??
hey Sam, this line of your's---It's not impossible that people will stop collecting moderns, but what is going to lead them to stop? The sudden realization perhaps that the Jefferson nickel doesn't have a quarter's worth of silver in it to protect them on the down side? The fact hat Ikes aren't made of precious gold which will always have value regardless what happens to pop tops?---has always been the most inane aruement about classics holding value or having something over clads. perhaps if i have an enormous amount of face value tied up it may be sensible, but the proponents of this fact always forget to mention lost value when the price of precious metals sinks. just another silly arguement. good point.
................but enough for my rant. i figure the pace of slabbing will slow when there isn't the incentive to slab. currently, there is a strong sales market for most all series that makes it worth finding nice coins to holder for resale and profit.
back to the rant!!!
al h.