Supply VS Demand

Peaceman · January 10, 2004 4:09AM

Right now, supply is low and demand is high for most key date/PQ coins... DUH... For the coin market to peak and start going the other way, we as collectors will have to come to the point where selling our coins for huge profits makes us happier than holding the coin in our hand....

So... at what % gain would you sell your collection and give up the coins you hold near and dear.....

fountainheadgold · January 10, 2004 4:13AM

100% gain would do it for me

jdimmick · January 10, 2004 4:22AM

Most of the ones I still have, It would take a heXX of a lot of money(% wise) for me to part with them. For example: My 01-s quarter that I found after 4 years of searching. If someone offered me 12k for it, I would pass without a second thought. And its not worth that much, but try and find another!!!

BAJJERFAN · January 10, 2004 4:46AM

I have some I would sell without much regret but the ones that are real tough to find I would keep unless I got enuf to buy the same coin in mint state. Key and semi key dates in PCGS 55 and 58 are darn tough to find.

dollardude · January 10, 2004 4:47AM

I don't think anyone could argue that the supply of coins is decreasing, while the demand is increasing. I have been quite fortunate in coins. I have made huge profits, and didn't even plan it that way. This was strictly by accident. For example, I have almost tripled my money on my 1893-S Morgan in less than 1 year. I am a collector, so I don't buy or sell based on what the market is doing. I do my investing in good growth-stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate (ya, ya, I know you're tired of hearing this). Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and there is no way to predict the future in any market. My guess is that the coin market will continue to rise for another year or two more, then drop. This is just my best guess. IMO, coins are very high risk investments. If you're like me, you just don't care -- you do it for enjoyment only.

roadrunner · January 10, 2004 5:39AM

Historically, key date coins have always slowly risen in price over the years and been the bluest of blue chips. They were pretty much ignored during the "wall street" coin boom of 1989-1990. Once all the speculation died out, they started to become everyone's darling. Blue chip, solid, rare, desireable, gee..........all the reasons to promote the heck out of them. Now how can we do that????

The last few years have demonstrated a market concentrated almost solely on key dates. The registry idea has catapaulted these coins into the stratosphere. I'm not foolish enough to think (like the Nasdaq) that this is going to go on forever and that no correction will ever occur. What goes up a lot, eventually comes down a lot too. I would not be surprised, and even expect, key date coins to experience a correction of significant proportions not seen before when this current market blows out. For those buying their key dates at the top of the pyramid, the bottom is a long ways down. This is basic supply and demand. The demand will fall away when all the Johnny come-latelies decide to no longer speculate/collect key dates. All the dealers than have been feeding this will stop aggressively buying them as the pool of speculators shrinks.

The key date market has never experienced such a move. At least not since the first half of the 1960's or roll craze of the 1950's. It should be an interesting rise....and fall. The collectors will have nothing to do with the fall. It will be the speculators that blow this market apart. It is one of the reasons it has taken off so quick. Everyone is piling onboard because things keep going up...there is no better or safer investment (just like the Nasdaq in 1999). This is as sure thing. To those true collectors out there, don't be afraid to sell your key dates because you'll be able to buy them back a lot cheaper a short time later.

roadrunner

dan1ecu · January 10, 2004 5:45AM

I think if I could double my money, I'd sell.

There will be other opportunities to buy nice coins at reasonable prices, since the coin market goes in cycles. I've learned from investing in stocks that when people start paying outrageous prices because they're sure that prices will rise even more, it's time to get out. Maybe that time will come for coins soon, I don't know.

dan

Peaceman · January 10, 2004 6:01AM

Roadrunner... nice insite. So your opinion is that the speculators are driving the market... not the collector.... interesting... I think a speculator in the coin market would be an individual who has lost money in other types of investments and moved into this market (stable 1 year ago) to try to retrieve a 10-20% gain. Those of us who have invested in the stock market know that some stocks are siclical (sp). The auto companies in particular.... when one sector falls, another goes up because people go where the return is..... When the stock market went down, people looked to other sources of investment.... such as the coin market. Usually, when the stock market starts to come out of a bear market.... people return to it, which would mean the speculators would leave the coin sector and return to the stock market.

Speculators move often and quickly. Based on your response, you're thinking the values will be moving down very quickly very soon as the stock market (not the tech market) has come back over 10,000 and the speculators are retuning to that market......

dlimb2 · January 10, 2004 6:06AM

Well mine have already trippled since I bought them...I will wait a while longer...I think it has only just begun.

roadrunner · January 10, 2004 6:10AM

Peaceman, speculators can even be coin dealers. They'll go out and stock them just to sell them to other dealers who are speculating. It's almost as if enough of them do this, they incite the greed into other members of the community to do the same. Even their clients and collectors. I'm sure as money left wall street some came here to buy key dates. How much money would it take to buy up all the key dates? Not much. It's a small market.

Money is building up into the stock market and may continue for a while longer. But the coin market is still getting speculative money too. As "bad" as it sounds, I'm a "speculator" too as are many in the coin markets. Every dealer is a speculator if you will. Purist collectors are in the minority.

roadrunner

dlimb2 · January 10, 2004 6:10AM

If I had a rare coin...to me it would be an insurance policy...I would never sell it unless the price was right...one of a kinds are not easy to find...and when there is a market for the top of the line no matter how bad things get...that one of a kind will always hold a premium.

topstuf · January 10, 2004 6:22AM

There seems to be a great deal of demand for supply and a great supply of demand.

Uh.......I am gonna have a beer now.

Senility sucks.

jdimmick · January 10, 2004 6:44AM

Roadrunner,
I probably agree with a majority of your opinions on key-dates, eventually it will soften with other areas and there will be a noticeable price correction on a lot of dates. However, I dont buy them for investment purposes, so if and when it occurs, then oh well. Most of the one's I have purchased have come prior to the monster price advancements, so I actually wouldnt loose out financially. But being a collector at heart, there are several dates that I have aquired that just dont come around "nice" all that often, that I will not sell, except of course when upgrading, even if I knew a correction was coming in as few as three months. That is the collector in me and my love for coins especially key-dates.

Although, as previously mentioned in other threads, I have sold off quite a few pieces that I consider obtainable at any major show. Coins that are nice, but can be bought back realatively easy with limited searching time. These specific dates I will wait to aquire again at a later time, and hopefully there will have been a price correction in the mean time. Even though a collector, I thought this was a finacially smart way to maximize the money for the ones that I wanted to go ahead and sell, which in turn enabled me to buy some of the better/more expensive dates that I wanted that are harder to find nice.

jim

Here are some dates IMO that are going to experience a price correction over the long term: some may not agree, but MO

1909-s VDB in Ms-65 RED (too many marginal 65 coins in holders, Only the nicest fiery full reds will sustain these values)

1932-d Washington .25 Ms-64 (has exploded to fast in price for its realative availablity, Actually several available on any given day for a modest price. Look at the pop numbers. I think the only thing keeping this coin up currently is the fact that the Ms-65 is out of most people's range.) Eventually this demand will die off, and there will be a bunch availble on the market. Again, only full original, mostly white coins will be sought!

roadrunner · January 10, 2004 6:55AM

I held on to several of those one of a kind, PQ, irreplaceable premium type coins through the top of the 1989 market right to the bottom in 1997. They took a 40-50% whack even after I upgraded them later on. The fact that the others fell to 25-33% didn't give me a whole lot of consolation. Pride of ownership is great but selling when it is time is good too, no matter how "irreplaceable" a coin is. There are always irreplaceable coins available when the market tanks. Guess that's why I've never been a pure collector.

roadrunner

AmericanSilverEagleCoins · January 10, 2004 7:07AM

I have never really believed I could make serious money selling my coins. I have always seemed to be fascinated with hoards and large collections. Therefore my goal is to collect as many nice pieces as possible and someday my great great great grandkids will open up a box with thousands of coins. Right now Kennedys and Ikes are cheap and even found at face value from the banks. My collection of thousands of moderns is really only the cost of TPG fees. Even on eBay moderns are not too much. However 150 years from now...

Supply VS Demand

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