2004 Forecast

Cameo CC · December 18, 2003 9:29PM

It's that time of year - the Holiday's are upon us and I have much to be thankful for.

So, one year from now what will you remember about 2004?

Here are some thoughts to ponder:

Will Gold reach $500, Silver reach $6.50, Platinum over $1000?
What will be the surprise purchase of 2004?
Will the Fun Show bring strong prices for the major collections being auctioned?
What series will show strong or weak demand?

Todd

RYK · December 18, 2003 9:55PM

I predict that I will buy at least one N.O. gold coin and one Dahlonega gold coin.

Tade · December 18, 2003 10:31PM

One word for 2004

razorface1027 · December 18, 2003 10:41PM

By the end of 2004?......... To be weaned from the PLASTICS arena and get back to basics...

AquilaRose · December 18, 2003 11:26PM

I think classic gold coins are going to be pretty scarce/hot regardless of the direction gold goes. I believe these U.S. coins are getting sucked up off the market on a global scale.

Cameo CC · December 18, 2003 11:34PM

I do think we will see Morgan's and Peace Dollars go 20 to 30% higher this year.

Todd

mintluster · December 18, 2003 11:35PM

<< It's that time of year - the Holiday's are upon us and I have much to be thankful for.

So, one year from now what will you remember about 2004?

Here are some thoughts to ponder:

Will Gold reach $500, Silver reach $6.50, Platinum over $1000? No
What will be the surprise purchase of 2004? Will not be ONE thing
Will the Fun Show bring strong prices for the major collections being auctioned? Yes
What series will show strong or weak demand? PCGS will be strong as usual

Todd >>

mintluster · December 18, 2003 11:36PM

<< By the end of 2004?......... To be weaned from the PLASTICS arena and get back to basics...

>>

Will never happen. Never ever. There is no going back now. If anything, we will see more slabbing companies in the coming years.

mintluster · December 18, 2003 11:37PM

<< I do think we will see Morgan's and Peace Dollars go 20 to 30% higher this year.

Todd >>

I agree

Cameo CC · December 19, 2003 2:13AM

Only one TTT

Todd

fishcooker · December 19, 2003 5:15AM

I don't think Platimum will go to $1000 because the auto industry has already switched to Palladium.

Dow Jones = 12000
Mortgage rates = 6.5% for 30 year

Gold = $380
Silver = $6

Gasoline = $1.25
Natural Gas = $3.80
Oil = $25

Economy = solid growth in job and everything else.

The Media will fight fervently in opposition to Bush campaign, but he defeats Dean anyway by landslide.

Hillary begins campaign for 2008 presidential run.

cherrypickincoin · December 19, 2003 5:22AM

^^^^I like those predicions!

RYK · December 19, 2003 5:47AM

Gold peaks at $425 in January.
S&P 500 up 7%
Russell 2000 up 9%
Dow to 11,000
Oil down to $25/barrel
FUN is best FUN show ever per all sources...ANA show bit of a disappointment
PCGS gets turnaround time for economy submissions under 30 days
There are fewer than 20 New Orleans $20's and fewer than 10 San Francisco $10's on the SS Republic. There is one surprise rare gold coin finding in the hoard.
Lucy and Frank will buy some Frankies, JB will sell some toned Morgans, Russ will buy at least 2 AH Kennedy's, Winged Liberty will jump up in the Merc Dime Registry, CoinLieut will make another blockbuster purchase, Dahlonega will buy a Dahlonega, there will be no flame threads involving Park Ave, there will be a flame thread involving Legend/Laura, and I will create some weekend polls.

That's it for now.

jbsteven · December 19, 2003 6:05AM

<< JB will sell some toned Morgans >>

my fingers are crossed.

LAWMAN · December 19, 2003 6:08AM

Gold 500, silver and platinum, up, up and away.

Peace dollars, jeff nickels, rosies up, up and up.

More war, very wierd doings around the elections. Some kind of major terroist hit (wish not).

Dow at 12,000. Go figure.

keets · December 19, 2003 8:10AM

My goals which will be obtained in the coming year:

i will find a raw or holdered and unattributed Proof 1939 Reverse of 1940 Jefferson Nickel. it will be a gem PR66.

i will find a raw or holdered and unattributed Proof 1956 Type 2 Franklin Half-Dollar in gem PR68CAM.

i will have a short article printed in "Numismatist" at the behest of kranky!!

i will build a home with my girlfriend, sell my house and move in with my wife.

my wife will not find out!!

actually, one will become the other.

gold will plummet to $318.72 and hold.

i will own 5%-10% of a known population of a really cool coin and let you guys know about it!!

my hip will stop hurting.

al h.

itsnotjustme · December 19, 2003 8:25AM

6 nickels with the oberse of 2003 and reverse of 2004 will be found.

GOLDSAINT · December 19, 2003 8:41AM

Will Gold reach $500, Maybe but most likely $450
Will Platinum over $1000? Maybe for a short time, but then back to $600
Will Silver reach $6.50, YES
Will the Fun Show bring strong prices for the major collections being auctioned? NO IDEA
What series will show strong or weak demand? Morgan dollars, and halves pre- 1915 will be winners, losers will be modern high grade pennies, nickles, Dimes and quarters as collectors search for rarities.
What will be the surprise of 2004? There will be no majority in the Democratic convention, the Delegates will be turned loose, and Hillary will win the nomination. She will lose to Bush in a landside,as she will not get the female vote.

DHeath · December 19, 2003 8:57AM

My prognostications -

ANACS will gain market share.

The "new" old collectors who rejoined the hobby over the last few years will continue to gain skills and experience.

It will become more difficult to sell a slab without a look.

Coin prices will cool slightly as speculators re-enter the stock market.

Russ · December 19, 2003 9:14AM

I predict that by the end of 2004 I will own better than 10% of the entire PCGS graded population of Accented Hair Kennedy Halves.

Russ, NCNE

291fifth · December 19, 2003 10:28AM

Gold will continue to climb slowly, probably peaking at about $475. Silver will peak at about $7. By the end of the year Gold will have dropped to about $325 and Silver to under $5. The decline in Gold and Silver, when it occurs, will be very rapid. Only the smartest money will get out in time (as usual). The insurgency in Iraq will decline as more and more of their leaders are killed or captured. Iraq will remain chaotic, however, due to poor leadership and corruption. The Democrats, catering to special interests that are out-of-sync with the majority of the American public, will run an exceptionally inept campaign, allowing George the Worst another 4 years.

Rare coins will continue to do well but will stumble at the Pittsburgh ANA as too many speculators try to get out at the same time. The number of auction lots will be staggering and will be too much for the market to absorb all at once. The fading of the registry set craze will contribute to the decline.

tlhoy · December 19, 2003 11:07AM

Will Gold reach $500, Silver reach $6.50, Platinum over $1000? Gold-NO Platinum-NO Silver-Yes
What will be the surprise purchase of 2004? Califorina State Quarter Proof Error!
Will the Fun Show bring strong prices for the major collections being auctioned? Yes.
What series will show strong or weak demand? Copper: Large Cents will bring record prices! Gold coins will DIVE!
Call me CRAZY,

Glenn

SportsModerator · December 19, 2003 11:41AM

Gold $900+

Silver $18.00+

Dow 6800

Nasdaq 900

Real estate bubble to pop

Russ · December 19, 2003 11:50AM

SM1,

Don't try to edit that toward the end of next year. I saved it.

Russ, NCNE

SportsModerator · December 19, 2003 11:57AM

er, I could have made a "typographical" error

Hey, I'm being conservative!

Tootawl · December 19, 2003 12:07PM

I think we will get a bit more snow than normal this winter with a warmer than usual summer.

What...

Really???

Coin related huh.

Never mind.

dan1ecu · December 19, 2003 12:18PM

Well, since I'm a net buyer of coins, I'd like to see prices come down. I don't think I'll get my wish, though. I predict higher prices for Liberty Nickels and Barbers. Wildly toned coins might reach ridiculously high levels.

I'll be keeping my eye out for reasonably priced, unloved coins that I can get on the cheap.

Dan

SportsModerator · December 19, 2003 12:22PM

<< I'll be keeping my eye out for reasonably priced, unloved coins that I can get on the cheap >>

Those are called Accented Hair Kennedys

roadrunner · December 19, 2003 1:38PM

gold $500+
silver $8-10
DOW - 6500
Nasdaq - 1300
US Dollar - .78 or less
classic coins - well up
moderns and registry sets - no idea
generic gold - well up
Bush in the White House again.
Saddam gets off due to mistrial - Dream Team wins the case. Osamo
is surprise witness that testifies in his behalf.

I like sports moderator's predictions. Gutsy, but very possible

roadrunner

jdimmick · December 19, 2003 1:50PM

I think the FUN show will be an all time great show. I think prices for better stuff for early part year will be strong, then start to soften by July. and it will be noticable softening by then.

I picked up some great key-dates in 2003, will be hard to top, but hopefully I can land a decent one or two this year.

cladking · December 19, 2003 2:45PM

DJIA- 9,500
Nasdaq- 2,600
Oil- $36.50
Gold- $475
Silver- $7.15
Al- $.87
Cu- $1.75
Euro- $1.41

JJacks · December 19, 2003 3:38PM

Gold $900+

Silver $18.00+

Dow 6800

Nasdaq 900

What are you trying to do? Make stock-traders like me rich? I'd make a killing on the way down with puts and then if the 'Daq hits 900, time to load up on some tech-stocks for the coming 10 and 20 folds!!!

JJacks

dollardude · December 19, 2003 4:02PM

Okay, for what it's worth, here are my predictions.

One year from now, what will I remember about 2004? I will be glad that a democrat retook the white house.
Will gold reach $500.00? No. I think gold will fluctuate up to about $425.00 maximum, but will end the year at $410.00.
Will silver reach $6.50? No. I think silver will fluctuate up to about $5.75 maximum, but will end the year at $5.50.
Will platinum reach $1,000.00? No. I think platinum will fluctuate up to about $800.00 maximum, but will end the year at $790.00.
Will the Fun Show bring strong prices for the major collections being auctioned? Yes. I think the prices will generally be about 10% higher than the previous Fun Show.
What series will show strong or weak demand? I think the $20 Saint Gaudens series will show strong demand, and the Indian head penny series will show weak demand.

In addition, I will guess that, at the end of 2004. the DJIA will be up to 11,000, the S&P 500 index will be up to 1,200, and the NASDAQ will be up to 2,200. I'll also guess that the CU3000 rare coin index will be up to 65,000. Since I'm a real estate investor, I'll also guess that the 15-year mortgage (par quote -- 0 points and 0 origination fee) will be up to 5.5% (up very slightly). I'll guess that the fed will raise interest rates (i.e., the discount rate and the federal funds rate) by 1/4 of a point one time.

oreville · December 19, 2003 11:43PM

I hope Hillary runs against Bush in 2004.....and loses.

The Rick Lazio can then run against Hillary again for New York State Senator and then finally beat her.

But no way, Hillary is too smart for that. My wife saw her on the campaign trail in New York and as a NY Senator and this woman has learned a lot since her Health Insurance reform fiasco of 1993-1994. She will indeed be formidable in 2008 since Bush has done nothing to nuture the next Republican President for 2008.

Other than Colin Powell and I don't think he wants it.

Now coins........

Gold will range from $375 to $450 during 2004.
Silver $5.00 to $6.25
Platinum will not move much.
All the stock averages will move up 5% to 7% during 2004 but will begin to falter in October 2004 and end up the year right where they are now.
FUN will be solid but no stronger than the current stronge market
The big news will be the explosion in prices of the ultra cheap collector coins, the indian head cents, wheaties, and silver dimes quarters and halves. Also the big shock will be the doubling of G-VG Liberty head nickels and buffalo nickels in the 2004 year alone. Other coins will rise another 10% to 15% percent overall. Patterns will jump another 50% in price. The new nickels are going to create even more newbie interest in our hobby.
Last but not least, Feds will raise discount rate 1/2 of 1% after the election.

2004 Forecast

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