November 2002, 1 oz gold = 480 Swiss Franc November 2003, 1 oz gold = 530 Swiss Franc Difference = +10.4%
November 2002, 1 oz gold = 320 US Dollar November 2003, 1 oz gold = 400 US Dollar Difference = +25.0%
It's not that gold is extremely strong (although it is doing well), it's that the US dollar is weak right now. Last year, 1 USD bought you 1.10 Euros. Now it gets you about 83 Euro cents.
I really expect it to go back down and up several times, there will be profit taking and the usuall resistance. After it breaks $400 four or five times then I think we will see a solid bottom in the $420 range, give or take $5 by the 3rd week in January '04.
Silver needed to break $5 on five different occasions before it settled in and closed several weeks above that figure. Now we have a new solid bottom of around $5.25.
I expect to see solid grinding rises, but slow and steady through most of '04, it is after all, a Presidential election year. By '05, I think the gloves will be off and many people will be surprised at where precious metals go. This is still the early rise of the tide and there's going to be a long bull wave in front of us.
I'm strong on silver giving a better return % wise, but I've hedged my bets with a solid portfolio of gold as well. Something along the lines of 65-35.
Either way, I'm in it long and these little blips are just the first tremors of a groundswell. We'll see.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
The majority of the financial mainstream still says that this gold thing is a fluke. I guess we'll see. Anyone who is pro-gold is still considered a crack pot or lunatic by the vast majority.
I will bring up James Sinclair's bet of $100,000 back at the beginning of the year that gold would close above $400 sometime THIS year. As far as I know, no one took him up on it. Probably a wise move as gold may take out $400 any day. Once this bet is gone, I got a feeling he's going to start a $500/oz bet.
I'd be surprised if Gold breaks $500 in '04. I'd also be surprised if it didn't tease $800 by the end of '05.
Personally, I still have alot of buying to do, I'd like to see it stay low for another year or so. That's why this is a mixed blessing for me. I have no intention of doing any profit taking for several years.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Comments
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
November 2003, 1 oz gold = 530 Swiss Franc
Difference = +10.4%
November 2002, 1 oz gold = 320 US Dollar
November 2003, 1 oz gold = 400 US Dollar
Difference = +25.0%
It's not that gold is extremely strong (although it is doing well), it's that the US dollar is weak right now. Last year, 1 USD bought you 1.10 Euros. Now it gets you about 83 Euro cents.
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
I really expect it to go back down and up several times, there will be profit taking and the usuall resistance. After it breaks $400 four or five times then I think we will see a solid bottom in the $420 range, give or take $5 by the 3rd week in January '04.
Silver needed to break $5 on five different occasions before it settled in and closed several weeks above that figure. Now we have a new solid bottom of around $5.25.
I expect to see solid grinding rises, but slow and steady through most of '04, it is after all, a Presidential election year. By '05, I think the gloves will be off and many people will be surprised at where precious metals go. This is still the early rise of the tide and there's going to be a long bull wave in front of us.
I'm strong on silver giving a better return % wise, but I've hedged my bets with a solid portfolio of gold as well. Something along the lines of 65-35.
Either way, I'm in it long and these little blips are just the first tremors of a groundswell. We'll see.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I will bring up James Sinclair's bet of $100,000 back at the beginning of the year that gold would close above $400 sometime THIS year. As far as I know, no one took him up on it. Probably a wise move as gold may take out $400 any day. Once this bet is gone, I got a feeling he's going to start a $500/oz bet.
roadrunner
Personally, I still have alot of buying to do, I'd like to see it stay low for another year or so. That's why this is a mixed blessing for me. I have no intention of doing any profit taking for several years.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff