Options
The different types of "rarety"...
dan1ecu
Posts: 1,573
There are many coins out there that are rare in the sense that few were produced. Many of these are not selling for premium prices because there's no demand for the coin. The 1886 proof-only 3-cent nickel is an example of a coin that has a mintage below 5000, yet it sells for no more than a type coin of the series. Yes, it's rare, but nobody really cares.
Then there's condition rarity. Many coins sell for enormous premiums because there are very few of them in a given grade. From what I've seen, it's mostly moderns where this applies. The $30,000+ 1963 PR70 Lincoln cent comes to mind...
Another type of rarity seems to have to do with eye appeal. A common date Morgan dollar with rainbow toning can sell for an enormous premium. I question how rare these really are, though. There could even be some talented people out there who are making more of them each day...
So which do you think is the best value? Do you think that many 19th century coins with very low mintages are a steal at current prices even though prices might (probably will) stay low? Do you think that a conditionally rare piece is a safe bet in terms of getting you money back later on if you decide to sell? Perhaps you are of the opinion that toned coins are the best relative value because eye appeal will always be important to collectors?
What are your thoughts regarding what type of "rarity" to be most concerned with when collecting coins?
Dan
Then there's condition rarity. Many coins sell for enormous premiums because there are very few of them in a given grade. From what I've seen, it's mostly moderns where this applies. The $30,000+ 1963 PR70 Lincoln cent comes to mind...
Another type of rarity seems to have to do with eye appeal. A common date Morgan dollar with rainbow toning can sell for an enormous premium. I question how rare these really are, though. There could even be some talented people out there who are making more of them each day...
So which do you think is the best value? Do you think that many 19th century coins with very low mintages are a steal at current prices even though prices might (probably will) stay low? Do you think that a conditionally rare piece is a safe bet in terms of getting you money back later on if you decide to sell? Perhaps you are of the opinion that toned coins are the best relative value because eye appeal will always be important to collectors?
What are your thoughts regarding what type of "rarity" to be most concerned with when collecting coins?
Dan
0
Comments
One reason for this is because I don't focus on modern issues. Were I to focus on moderns, I'd concern myself with grade rarity. It's easy to find any clad quarter (except, perhaps for certain varieties), so there's little challenge in collecting one circulated example of each. The thrill comes from finding the highest grade known.
Another reason is that I don't follow the crowd, so demand means little to me (unless demand is so great for the coin I want that I can't afford it). I don't care if "nobody" wants low-mintage three cent pieces, half dimes, etc. If I like it, I'll buy it-- even if it's not high grade. Heck, I'll even buy problem coins if they are scarce enough that I can't find them unimpaired within my budget.
Some coins have taken me over three years to find in any grade. When I find them I feel a great deal of satisfaction, and I'm not constantly looking around for a possible upgrade. If I find another even in a lower grade I'm surprised. Even though such coins have the most "value" to me, I do not expect to turn a profit on them. If I wanted a profit, I'd search through mint sets for grade rarities of coins that many people want.
Obscurum per obscurius
<< <i>Do you think that many 19th century coins with very low mintages are a steal at current prices even though prices might (probably will) stay low? >>
Yes, I don't collect for the "profit" possiblity. I'm a collector not a dealer. I'd rather have a rare coin then a conditional rarity. My collecting focus is really beginning to shift in this direction.
Though I have to admit that some of the "rare" coins are easy to find then some others. As most know I am collecting toned Peace $. These are extremely rare in MS grades with really nice color. Will there ever be a demand for them -- no. There might be a slight interest in them, but I don't expect my sets value to gain in price exponentially. But I like it because it has a "wow" effect, not so much for the color, there are Morgans that are much much nicer, but for the fact that most collectors don't even own 1 nicely toned Peace $ while I have a nearly complete registry set.
I guess its a matter of pride. It has taken a huge amount of work putting this set together. And now you've gotten me interested in the proof 3 cent!
Michael
tokens I have very little concern for condition or even rarity really. I'm just looking for nice
readable examples of pieces that aren't in the collection. With circulated clad quarters I am
concerned about condition and varieties. I've been working on trying to complete a nice XF
set for years. Any time I can upgrade a piece I will, with the only criteria being that the new
piece is "clearly superior" to the old one. While the regular issues are all easy in F, they are
not easy in high grade (and this set still lacks several of the varieties). With another set like
British pennys there is more emphasis on varieties and less on grade. While these are usually
available in very high grade they are difficult to find and quite expensive. I derive just as much
enjoyment seeking these in nice attractive XF or AU and the cost is much lower.
It would seem that some coins are predisposed to be collected in one manner and others in a-
nother, just as collectors vary so do collections.
What are people using to tone coins? and do the grading services always pick this up?
<< <i>Then there's condition rarity. Many coins sell for enormous premiums because there are very few of them in a given grade. From what I've seen, it's mostly moderns where this applies. The $30,000+ 1963 PR70 Lincoln cent comes to mind... >>
Look through some pop reports on classic coins and look at their values and I think you will see the condition rarity coin is more common in the classics. mike
Personally I like lower slab populations. Going by the numbers you can only figure the numbers are wrong in one direction, high, because of people trying to get the higher grade on the slab. Its sort of neat to get a coin with only a hundred or so slabbed in the grade you have and higher.
Ken
<< <i>
<< <i>Then there's condition rarity. Many coins sell for enormous premiums because there are very few of them in a given grade. From what I've seen, it's mostly moderns where this applies. The $30,000+ 1963 PR70 Lincoln cent comes to mind... >>
Look through some pop reports on classic coins and look at their values and I think you will see the condition rarity coin is more common in the classics. mike
One reason for the apparent condition rarity phenomenon by looking through pop reports is that very few collectors will slab 1965 quarters (for example) in circulated grades.
Price spreads and original mintages are fairly reliable ways to judge absolute rarity. Look at the 1873-CC silver dollar. The mintage is low (2,300) and the price spread between VG-8 and MS-60 (the highest grade listed in my '98 Red Book) is less than elevenfold. I doubt anyone would pay $3,000 for a 1963 cent in PR-60 or even PR-65, especially since nearly 1.7 million were struck in proof.
BTW, for this discussion I'm defining "classics" as 19th century or prior.
Obscurum per obscurius
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Welcome! I really don't know how to artificially tone a coin, but from what I've read, people do try it. Whether or not many get past the grading services, I'm not sure, but I'd probably have a hard time telling the difference on some of them.
Dan
mcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu">dmcinnes@mailclerk.ecok.edu
When I show, for example, a proof 1862 dime to my friends and relatives, I can say, "there were 550 of these made 6 generations ago, probably half of those still exist today, and there are probably 100 or so of those are in better condition than this one." because they didn't have special packaging.
Whereas the owner of a modern "condition rarity" proof coin can say, for example "there were millions of these made within the past 40 years, most of which still exist, but this is one of the very nicest ones, none or only a couple grade better!" such a coin is in such nice shape because of special packaging.
Not knocking the folks who prefer the latter boast, just stating the case for the former.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Then I have a gold coin graded MS 66, of which there are about 40 in just that grade alone, and about 10,000 more exist, for which I paid about $7,000.00 something for. I debated over buying the latter coin for a long time, and contemplated what made the difference in price, and it was all about demand.
So there are a lot of rare beauties to be had for reasonable money.
But then look at some of the 1/2 cents, rated as rarity 1's, affordable, but just try to find one that looks real nice. Good luck!
There are many coins out there like that, and I don't think I'll ever spend $7,000.00 on a coin again, that isn't rare in and of it's own kind, no matter what the deman or condition rarity. It's just not worth it...to me.
Scott Travers, in one of his books, talks about the steak and the sizzle. Either you buy the steak, or you buy the sizzle.
Have you ever read Rick Tomaska's book "Cameo and Brilliant Proof Coinage of the 1950 to 1970 Era"?
He makes a compelling case for some "condition rarities?.
In "The Insider's Gide to U.S.Coin Values 2001", Scott Travers said there were three keys to value (in this order), GRADE, COLLECTOR BASE, and AVAILABILITY. He also noted "As coins aproach the perfection denoted by the grade of 70, their prices very often approach the stratosphere. You may find, for example, that a coin with a value of $500 in MS-65 condition is worth 10 times as much in MS-67- and one hundred times as much in MS-69. This difference reflects the fact that hardly any exist in the highest grades. People who collect these coins are willing to pay top dollar for top quality not only because the coins are breathtakingly beautiful in these very high levels of preservation, but because they're FLAT-OUT RARE."
I hope most collectors aren't investors, so IMO no one approach is the RIGHT way, and condition rarity is just as valid an interest as any. True rarities are sometimes inexpensive for a reason, demand. None of the Lincolns are particularly rare, but I'd imagine one would be hard pressed to find a better "investment" over the last 40 years than some of the twentieth century coins like the Lincolns in high grade. Proof Barber halves have never been particularly popular, but they are very low mintage coins. If I were collecting as an investor, their relatively low population wouldn't cause me to take up the series.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
variation over both the short term and the long term. When the mint produces a coin for
several decades it's only reasonable to expect that here will be variability in numbers made,
strike, wear, survivability, and type. One wouldn't likely collect two cent pieces in AG because
some of the dates are seldom encountered in so low a grade and many that are will be quite
common. Most collectors prefer a higher state of preservation in most cases. These collector
preferences will be reflected in both the market value and the pops. By the same token, one
who demanded completeness and very high grade wouldn't collect bust dollars by date. Even
if money were no object, several of these coins would prove unavailable in original pristine con-
dition.
The same will generally apply to ANYTHING which is made over a long period of time. There will
always be trade-offs or holes in ones set whether he is collecting Lincoln cents or Morgan dollars.
It is for the collector to decide things like what coins constitute a complete set, the ideal grade
for the set, the minimum grade, and whether or not to include things like key dates, proofs,
varieties, errors, types, mint marks and even dates.
You have a good point, and yes, I have read Tomaska's book, and actually do appreciate what he's laid out in terms of the deep cameo proofs. And I have to say that personally, I see a big difference between a PF DCAM 65 and what's above. They seem like such fragile creatures to me, because the slightest disturbance can wreck their perfection (although, sometimes, having to be happy with lower grades, when the pentultimate is just not available or affordable, it becomes more forgiving, I look then at their overall beauty and skip over the 'minor' imperfections). I think I will always have some place in my heart for the Deep Cameo PROOFS.
But I've got this problem. I spend way too much money on coins!!!! And maybe my commentary is my own self-justification for going on a diet. But all kidding aside, I don't want to seem too monolithic on this issue. There is nothing like one of the first strikes off the choicest die for a given year. However, I have this PROOF 1/2 cent, probably a PF 63, from a late die state, which cost me less than one of my PF DCAM Franklins, and which I could spend literally hours just looking at, because of the hues imparted by the patination on the light reflecting off it's mirrored surface. (To be honest, in the past, I would never have bought a coin with a finger print on it, but now I'm finding that not only is it somewhat inescapable at times, but that a 100 yr old fingerprint can actually do wondrous things to the surface of a coin...). Now your jogging my penchant for MS67 Morgan dollars. I think there's nothing quite like them, but...
When Cladking says that nature is highly cyclical, he might just be talking about the way my mind works as well!
Unfortunately, I like ALL coins as well. I respect your approach, and enjoyed the post. I think the fascinating thing about this hobby is that most serious collectors have given a great deal of thought to the issues you addressed, and regardless of what the collect, have a very good idea of where they are in the hobby and why. Seems to me that very smart people collect coins.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor