What probability a 70 crosses over to PCGS?
janapier1
Posts: 29
Ok, somehow I have obtained a couple MS and PR 70: two NGC, three PCI and one ICG. If I cannot see scratched at 10x, what are the odds my vision is accurate enough to quantify even sending in for crossover, while my goal will be to sell them either way. Also, I already have a PCGS PR70 DCAM $50 - what are the chances that if sent in again that it would remain a 70?
Coins for sale here only at http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=7&threadid=223234
Looking for pre 1957 quarters and halfs.
Still need 20c, $3, $4, and $100 for my denominational set.
Trying to complete a 1903,1904 AU/BU set.
Collect pre 1957 circ, 1957-current proof, gold, dark side silver and palladium
Looking for pre 1957 quarters and halfs.
Still need 20c, $3, $4, and $100 for my denominational set.
Trying to complete a 1903,1904 AU/BU set.
Collect pre 1957 circ, 1957-current proof, gold, dark side silver and palladium
0
Comments
Edited to add: Unless you submit them "cross at any grade".
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>2 chances, slim and none! >>
And Slim just left the building.
Your best shot is crack and submit. PCGS has a tough time (rightfully so) calling a coin "PCGS Perfect" looking through a slab.
peacockcoins
I hate it when you see my post before I can edit the spelling.
Always looking for nice type coins
my local dealer
don't waste your time and money
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
<< <i>If I cannot see scratched at 10x, what are the odds my vision is accurate enough to quantify even sending in for crossover >>
population control is the issue, not the actual grade of the coin.
ie, your skill at detecting a worthy coin is irrelevant. what matters is pcgs's willingness to change the population. you as the end-consumer are operating strictly on luck.
K S
Camelot
Since HRH says .5% to 1.5% of modern proofs should grade 70, so I'd say the odds of crossing over 70's are
NGC ... 1 in 853
PCI ... 1 in 5242
ICG ... 1 in 68942
If you crack out a PCGS PR70DC and submit it raw, I'd say your odds would only be 1 in 250
My posts viewed
since 8/1/6
Looking for pre 1957 quarters and halfs.
Still need 20c, $3, $4, and $100 for my denominational set.
Trying to complete a 1903,1904 AU/BU set.
Collect pre 1957 circ, 1957-current proof, gold, dark side silver and palladium
<< <i>Why on earth would the other companies grade so lax? >>
they don't. rather, pcgs does not grade to the statistics claimed by hrh.
ie, if your just buying as a collector, your better off with the ms-70 or pr-70 from ngc, since their pop's more accurately reflects the opinion of hrh.
bottom line is still the same: if you like the coin, really really like it, then the grade does not matter.
K S
<< <i>they don't. rather, pcgs does not grade to the statistics claimed by hrh >>
Karl,
It's pretty obvious you've paid no attention to recent results. The PCGS pops for PR70 and MS70 have exploded. Hell, for the 2003 silver Kennedy alone, it's already up to 13 in 70DCAM. That's 13 times as many as PCGS graded for all years in the series in the three year period prior to Hall's statement. You'll find similar results in all the moderns.
Russ, NCNE
Then I must revise: .005 - .015 in a "fair game". But me thinks that the odds of coins in other holders NOT being true 70's are actually higher than some totally random ones since many were probably submitted knowing they would not grade 70 @ PCGS (i.e. that they were NOT true 70's). So maybe my previous #'s ARE closer to the mark
I had a chance to go through several hundred 2003 gold eagles graded MS-70 by NGC. I played with the idea of going through them and picking 10 coins to cross just to see what would happen. Didn't bother doing it. Waste of time and money.
but we will not go there
michael
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
<< <i>I think zero, but this might change depending on the quantity that you send in - when you reach 500 submissions in one batch, your chances of one crossing might increase. >>
You could send in 10,000 and you will not cross one. Again, as a matter of policy, PCGS will not cross MS70 and PR70 coins at the same grade. They've stated that publicly.
Russ, NCNE
The NGC would probably not either, but may come back 69's if sent in raw.
<< <i>Karl, It's pretty obvious you've paid no attention to recent results. The PCGS pops for PR70 and MS70 have exploded. Hell, for the 2003 silver Kennedy alone, it's already up to 13 in 70DCAM. That's 13 times as many as PCGS graded for all years in the series in the three year period prior to Hall's statement. You'll find similar results in all the moderns. >>
right on all counts, but does the pcgs pop reflect the 1% hrh claims? ie. are 1% of the coins getting submitted nailing 70?
K S
<< <i>but does the pcgs pop reflect the 1% hrh claims? ie. are 1% of the coins getting submitted nailing 70? >>
Karl,
I think the range he offered was .5% to 1.5% and the answer is yes, they are grading PR70 in that range.
2003 coins:
Kennedy
Total: 1550
70DCAM: 17 (1.09%)
State Quarters
Total: 19,032
70DCAM: 301 (1.58%)
Roosevelt
Total: 1464
70DCAM: 70 (4.78%)
Jefferson
Total: 1430
70DCAM: 23 (1.6%)
Lincoln
Total: 1379
70DCAM: 10 (.73%)
Russ, NCNE
DOUBLE bingo!!!
looks to me from russ's very excellent statistics that PCGS is right in line w/ what they claim their standards to be.
you just can't beat that.
clarification: is that for coins that actually make it into slabs? or does that reflect ALL coins submitted, whether they get slabed or not? ie. aren't their dealers who'll get tons of coins pre-screened, & only those w/ a chance to make it actually go through the slabing process?
either way, russ's numbers make pcgs look very good, & i have to get this egg off my face.
K S
<< <i>ie. aren't their dealers who'll get tons of coins pre-screened, & only those w/ a chance to make it actually go through the slabing process? >>
Yes. No way to account for those, but they place their minimum at 69DCAM and very few grade lower than that. Thus, the numbers are still pretty close.
Russ, NCNE