Lincoln cent Mania C .......1953 Lincoln Cent @ $8,000 +

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS · September 19, 2003 2:04AM

I find it astounding that some collector(i believe) would buy a 1953 Lincoln cent for more than $8,000.How long before enough is enough.This is roughly the price of a 1909 s V.D.B. in ms 66 red.
How many 1953 Lincoln cents are graded ms 66 red that could become ms 67 red?
Are collectors chasing "white elephants"? I wholly believe so.My question is when will the craze end?

Stewart

Russ · September 19, 2003 2:05AM

Stewie,

Are you making fun of my latest acquisition?

Russ, NCNE

mgoodm3 · September 19, 2003 2:08AM

If it's not $22,000, I won't even look at it.

CalGold · September 19, 2003 2:13AM

People on this board have spent too much time fretting over such things. If these prices are too high to be sustained, then those who bought in will take a bath. If prices for top pops remain sky high, most folks will be priced out of that tier, but most will happily settle for reasonably priced gems a point lower, and they will think they are getting a better value for their money at the one grade lower price.

CG

dpoole · September 19, 2003 2:15AM

This too shall pass....

wondercoin · September 19, 2003 2:16AM

"How many 1953 Lincoln cents are graded ms 66 red that could become ms 67 red?"

To answer your question, IMHO, there are number of MS66RD coins that were right in line with that coin - enough said

Wondercoin

dorkkarl · September 19, 2003 2:26AM

whenver i hear of a bogus price like that, i assume it was a bogus auction.

K S

Barry · September 19, 2003 2:48AM

<< Are collectors chasing "white elephants"? I wholly believe so.My question is when will the craze end?
Stewart >>

Sounds more like a red elephant.

willy · September 19, 2003 3:36AM

Stewart if these prices seem so crazy to you why don't you sell your collection at this time

Then you can cry all the way to the bank.

Willy

jeffnpcb · September 19, 2003 3:41AM

162/3 higher!

1953RD MS66

David Lawrence has a 1953 PCGS MS66RD for $253.00! With the change I could build a pretty decent MS set of Lincolns!

Lakesammman · September 19, 2003 5:25AM

Stewart:

You didn't notice the unique variety.....

kamehameha00 · September 19, 2003 5:38AM

<< 

<< Are collectors chasing "white elephants"? I wholly believe so.My question is when will the craze end?
Stewart >>

Sounds more like a red elephant.

>>

polka dotted with red stripes

oreville · September 19, 2003 6:38AM

NOT NICE TO MAKE FUN OF MY BIRTH YEAR COIN!!!!

clackamas · September 19, 2003 9:43AM

Stewarts just mad because he can't afford to have the best anymore.

BTW - An 09-S VDB in 66RD goes for $11,500 not $8K and there are 138 66RD 09-S VDB's with 9 finer.

cladking · September 19, 2003 10:31AM

How long can it last? This is an interesting question and oneI've put a little thought
into. collectors have always valued quality and rarity and have never chased either
to the exclusion of the other. Some may percieve this to be a case of chasing quality
without regard to rarity, but if you talk to the collector this isn't their perception. The
buyers of these are trying to assemble sets of the coins in the highest possible grade
and due to the nature of the manufacturing process these just happen to be rare. Col-
lectors have been advised for decades to buy the best quality that they can afford so
this is an outgrowth of several trends. Regular issue coins have been made in large
quantities without exception since 1931. While there are many legitimate rarities, these
tend to be too rare to form collections with many of the pieces being unique. This lends
all of these more modern issues to be common in common grades and often even in unc.
This fact alone is sufficient to drive people to collect the coins in uncommon grades. Addi-
tionally the advent of third party grading has narrowed the field of potential high grade
coins making them far more easily found. If one desired a high grade set of any coin
thirty or forty years ago there would have been great trouble finding candidates for the
collection, and this goes double for common coins like 1953 cents. One would quickly be
reduced to having to check countless rolls, bags, and mint sets himself to find the finest
specimens.

Perhaps of most importance to this trend is the availability of the internet. Not only are
the coins pre-screened for the collector by the graders but now they are made available
in the collector's home via the internet. If he can successfully find and acquire the coins
then he can compare the progress of his set with other collectors world wide in the regis-
tries.

An argument can certainly be made that the desire of collectors to obtain the finest has
gone too far; That this trend has gone nearly as far as nature and people can allow it go,
and that a reordering is at hand. But before one thinks this too strongly it should be re-
membered that the grading services aren't going away any time soon and the internet will
be with us for a very long time. Collectors still are being advised to find the best.

At some point in the future there will be a reversal of the trend to seek the highest grade,
and there will likely be a falling off in the values for most all high grade coins, but it is not
a safe bet that this will happen immenently or in the near future. So long as collectors seek
coins which appeal to them it is likely that most won't be badly hurt as these changes occur
regardless, though obviously speculators and investors may be as exposed as usual.

Jupiter · September 19, 2003 10:51AM

cluckamas..you always seem to insult and say rude stupid things..why are you such an a$$ or cant you help it

Coinosaurus · September 19, 2003 10:56AM

I agree. If you are going to collect 20th century stuff, the only way to go after rarity is to pursue condition rarities (1916 quarters and such notwithstanding). The problem comes in when you can't tell the difference between a 67 and 68 and even the experts disagree. I suppose the same thing goes for diamonds, 99% of the people couldn't look at two of them and tell the difference (size maybe) but everyone still ponies up the big bucks for the higher graded ones. So maybe this really is sustainable as a market......

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS · September 19, 2003 11:55AM

Interesting point Coinosaurus

Let's talk diamonds.Do you think everyone ponies up the big bucks for the highest graded ones? Wrong because buyers today consider the four C's Color,clarity,cut and MOST Important COST.

Let's use the same analogy to discuss 1953 Lincoln cents

color - How does the color look
luster - Is it flashy,is it bright,and original
comparison- how does this 1953 in ms 67 compare with a high end ms 66
COST - Is the price difference really worth 50X ?

stewart

LincolnCentMan · September 19, 2003 12:00PM

BTW - An 09-S VDB in 66RD goes for $11,500 not $8K and there are 138 66RD 09-S VDB's with 9 finer I've seen a number of them availible at $9250 - $9750. I know where one is right now in that range. It wouldnt be out of the line for a really nice one to go for 11.5K, though.

That's a lot of moola for a 53-P. I honestly thought the coin would go for about half that. Then it kicked up to about 6K and stayed there for a while. I wonder who the buyer was.

David

jonesy · September 19, 2003 12:04PM

Coinosaurus · September 19, 2003 12:12PM

Stewart-

Diamonds get bought by the 4Cs, yes, but do you think the average buyer could really tell the difference between a flawless D and a flawless E? I doubt it. The point is, they are trusting someone else's opinion on the grading, and spending a lot of money on something that they can't see for themselves. I submit that many high grade moderns buyers do the same thing.

cladking · September 19, 2003 12:17PM

<< 

Diamonds get bought by the 4Cs, yes, but do you think the average buyer could really tell the difference between a flawless D and a flawless E? I doubt it. The point is, they are trusting someone else's opinion on the grading, and spending a lot of money on something that they can't see for themselves. I submit that many high grade moderns buyers do the same thing. >>

There are some pretty dramatic differences. While the characteristics which separates
diamonds by quality may look enormous to those who study, buy and sell them, many
buyers wouldn't even know where to look for them. Even a newb coin collector will very
soon learn about strike, and marks and will have an opinion long before he plunks down
very much money on any coin whether classic or modern.

clw54 · September 19, 2003 12:33PM

You can get an uncirculated one for a couple of bucks.

Kelerag · September 19, 2003 12:40PM

Seems to be a seller`s market on Lincoln cents lately.....

clackamas · September 19, 2003 12:47PM

>>>That's a lot of moola for a 53-P. I honestly thought the coin would go for about half that. Then it kicked up to about 6K and stayed there for a while. I wonder who the buyer was.

I had guessed $6500 using the wag method. You never know. These are hard to make, if they were easy there would be more with that kind of money to be made.

roadrunner · September 19, 2003 12:51PM

"Most buyers can't tell a 67 from a 68." Let's not lose sight of the fact that grading is on a continuum. While I cannot differentiate betw a MS 67.9 and a MS 68.0 Lincoln cent I can tell a superb 67 from an also ran. There should not be sig price diff betw the two.
And when there is, I'll buy the superb 67 and pass on the pop top in most cases.

RR

DMWJR · September 19, 2003 2:38PM

I like the 4c's analogy. A person buying an $80 coin/diamond doesn't give a crap about the 4c's. However, a person buying an $8,000 coin/diamond usually does care about the 4c's. Obviously there are exceptions to the rule, but I think in general terms this is accurate. I think the analogy is dead on.

Shamika · September 19, 2003 3:20PM

"Stewart if these prices seem so crazy to you why don't you sell your collection at this time."

Sounds like a double dare to me!

mnmcoin · September 19, 2003 3:43PM

As long as PCGS continues to grade as they have been I don't think that any in 66rd will go 67rd. I have made or seen about 5 or 6 super high end 66rds within the last 6 months, all that I felt had very, very good shots at 67rd, but they did not make it...then I saw the one in Heritage's sale and knew exactly what they were looking for. I personally felt this was easily the best 53 Lincoln I have seen. Although the 5 or 6 I have seen recently were 67 quality, this one took the cake. It was everything you wanted in a 67...great strike, zero spots or whitish crud, and was virtually mark free. To tell you the truth although the reverse die was indicative of the strong die for 1953 (the one with fairly heavy die polish throughout) it did not look like the typical gems from 1946-1954 Philly mint. It looked like a 67rd from the late 30s early 40s.

morris <><

wondercoin · September 19, 2003 3:49PM

Morris: I must have been looking at the wrong 53(p) in the auction

Wondercoin

Typetone · September 19, 2003 4:10PM

Sounds like a great coin at a fair price. These condition rarities have no where to go but up. There just are never going to be a lot (though there will be many in lower unc grades). There will always be the desire for the best among those who can afford it.

Greg

mnmcoin · September 19, 2003 5:56PM

<< Morris: I must have been looking at the wrong 53(p) in the auction

Wondercoin >>

Mitch: Maybe that is why you haven't had much luck making one yourself

But seriously folks...

I wasn't looking at is with any intense lighting but from what I saw it was nice. Don't get me wrong it was not a shot 68 or anything, but a nice 67RD, especially for the date.

morris <><

mnmcoin · September 19, 2003 6:10PM

Heritage Auction in question

You would think that one of the three largest numismatic firms would be able to take better pictures of this $8000 coin.

And unless someone just made one recently, it looks like they got the pop #s wrong...again.

morris <><

Coppernicus · September 19, 2003 7:49PM

I am on the sidelines for now. I see early date MS66RD Lincolns that I have in my set going for more than double what I paid a year ago! I'm tempted to sell some (28-P and 29-P to name a couple) for outrageous prices, but I wonder, "When can I buy them back, and at what price?"

For now, I'm a spectator, marveling at the hammer prices on many of these Lincolns.

Edit: A 09-S VDB MS66RD went for $10,000 in the latest Heritage auction. Personally, I'd pay the extra two grand for a classic...

Mike

pmh1nic · September 19, 2003 11:36PM

"collectors have always valued quality and rarity"

I'd add to that the possibility that the person paying these premiums has so much money that an extra $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 to get that little extra red or avoid an additional mark or two isn't a big deal to them.

The rarity issue is something we've discussed over and over again. In most case when we're discussing the higher MS grades it's a matter of a few miniscule marks or very slight differences in luster or strike. Whether those differences are "mole hills" or "mountains" is a subjective matter.

I also believe some of the shock and amazement at the prices paid for 1 point differences in grade come down to our personally numismatic budget. To the person buying this coin for $8,000, if they have tremendous disposible assets, it may be the equivalent of my paying an extra $8 for a generic coin I need to fill a hole in an album.

If some have convinced themself that what's described as miniscule differences in the grading guides are monumental that's their perogative. The value issue is subject and to some extent based on personal wealth (or lack off). These situations are never going to make sense to some (including me) when so much of what goes into the decision making process is subjective.

cladking · September 19, 2003 11:57PM

At the risk of pointing out the obvious it also requires the exact same mindset
and personal wealth to plunk down your money for a gem 1918-D buffalo nickel.
I don't know what a superb gem of this coin goes for but it's safe to guess that
it would be well in excess of what the '53 goes for.

And if you want to talk really small differences bringing big money, if there's a
hint of a ghost of a "7" under the date of the nickel then just a run of the mill
gem brings over a quarter million dollars. The same examples can be found
throughout numismatics.

pmh1nic · September 20, 2003 3:43AM

cladking

I made no mention of modern or classic in my statement because in my mind the same principles when we've discussing 1 point grade rarity premiums applies regardless of the type of coin.

As far as die varieties are concerned I don't think all of the same principles apply. A die variety is an historical record of changes in the manufacturing of the dies and the production of a particular type of coin. There are different factors involved with respect to the interrest and premiums paid for die varieties versus the sometimes very high 1 point premiums paid to avoid a few miniscule marks.

jacktheknife · September 20, 2003 5:09AM

Stewart,
It almost seems from the tone of your thread that you wish the "mania" would stop. You obviously have the most to gain, from a financial standpoint, from these excedingly strong prices. I know most of your set was put together long before the "mania" began. You are always posing the question on these "crazy money" sales, but we have not heard your opinion. You're the #1 All-Time, Hall of Fame, preeminent Lincoln collector. What is your opinion on the Lincoln mania? Will it continue? Will late date "rarities" disappear as more and more are made? I think more people may value your opinion than you realize. Thanks for your thoughts,
JKC

wondercoin · September 20, 2003 5:33AM

pmh1nic - I think I just found your world record % price jump between single grade points. Come visit REDCENTS thread on the Registry forum - I think we just found a roughly 1,000x jump between grades

Wondercoin

cladking · September 20, 2003 6:11AM

There is only a very small demand for moderns. It is only in the highest grades
that the tiny demand greatly exceeds the supply. While some moderns are also
scarce in the undergrades this does not apply to all. Coins which are common in
undergrades will have very low prices, but their availability does not affect the
higher grades.

If the demand for moderns ever gets to even a large fraction of the demand for
the older coins then the prices of the just-missed coins will likely soar and bring
the premiums down to levels we can all be more comfortable with.

barberlover · September 20, 2003 6:13AM

My 1892 S Barber half should be worth at least 100 K with these top of pop lincoln prices being what they are, by the way, I'm not knocking lincolns. I'd love to have a Gem 55 red d/d.

pmh1nic · September 20, 2003 10:03AM

Cladking

"There is only a very small demand for moderns."

I don't have hard numbers on this but my guess is the vast majority of "collectors" (including all of those kids and grandpas plugging up their State Quarter boards, etc.) are collecting modern coins. But the coins they are collecting are not the $1,000+ high end coins. Most modern collectors are collecting the MS-64, 65 or the occassional 66 you find in new rolls or mint sets. The demand is high but the supply is also very high. At least this is the impression I get from hearing the number of people on the U.S. Mints mailing list. It is a small number of select individuals that are willing to pay the prices being realized for these pop top coins. They have their reasons for doing so, reasons I don't agree with but we've been there, done that. There is a whole different value structure involved in paying 100X premiums for 1 point differences in grade.

Wondercoin

Will wonders ever cease

. We've discussed the miniscule differences between MS-67 and 68, MS-68 and 69 but they get even more miniscule and microscopic when we're talking about PR69DCAM verses PR70DCAM.

cladking · September 20, 2003 10:53AM

<< 

I don't have hard numbers on this but my guess is the vast majority of "collectors" (including all of those kids and grandpas plugging up their State Quarter boards, etc.) are collecting modern coins. But the coins they are collecting are not the $1,000+ high end coins. Most modern collectors are collecting the MS-64, 65 or the occassional 66 you find in new rolls or mint sets. The demand is high but the supply is also very high. At least this is the impression I get from hearing the number of people on the U.S. Mints mailing list. It is a small number of select individuals that are willing to pay the prices being realized for these pop top coins. They have their reasons for doing so, reasons I don't agree with but we've been there, done that. There is a whole different value structure involved in paying 100X premiums for 1 point differences in grade.
>>

There are many millions of people collecting the states quarters from circulation.
There are hundreds of thousands of people collecting other coins from circulation.
These people are for the main part not paying any premium for coins. They are
real coin collectors collecting real coins but they have relatively small impact on the
hobby because their big purchases tend to be quarter boards and quarter tubes.
They buy a few coin papers judging by paid subscriptions of the papers and they
buy folders for their coins.

The people on the mints mailing list is an entirely different group of people for the
main part. This group much more closely mirrors the hobby than the newbies and
the individuals in this group change over time. These people are often buying these
more as an afterthought than anything else. Their intention in many cases is to buy
multiple sets and sell enough to cover the cost of acquisition while keeping a set or
two. This group has been going through a transformation over the last generation
and now there are substantial numbers of actual collectors in it. But this group still
more closely resembles the hobby than the newbies.

There are also tens of thousands of people now who are putting together sets of the
moderns. They are paying premiums to obtain these coins. Most all of this group are
older collectors who have been around in the middle of or on the fringes of the hobby.
Most of these sets have been started in just the last two or three years. While you're
right that they seek nice MS-64 and 65 coins, I can assure you that in many cases they
are not finding them. While some coins are readily available in gem condition in mint
sets and a few will come from rolls, there are many moderns which simply are not readily
available even in choice condition from any source.

There are a few people collecting top grade sets and many dozens who now seek top
quality on a budget.

It has never been my contention that $1000 moderns are bargains and that smart peo-
ple are snapping them up before the riff raff has a chance. I have merely said that the
high priced coins are high priced because the demand exceeds the supply and this is un-
likely to change anytime soon. I have said that many of these coins are elusive in nice choice
(unc) condition and it would be wise for collectors to get these coins before their scarcity
becomes apparent. It would seem likely that the huge influx of newbies into the hobby
is going to eventually raise the demand levels for most all coins and moderns are poised
to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this. It seems probable that the road to a revived
and vibrant hobby will go straight through the moderns. At the very least they are right in
between the classics and the ultra-moderns that they are already collecting. There are no
gaurantees and investment in coins has often proven disasterous, but those who are seek-
ing collections might be well advised to get these now.

I'm almost inclined to agree that the differences in the high grade proofs are small. These
do actually require some experience to spot the differences. A layman can be taught to
spot the differences in the uncs very quickly but some serious study is required to see the
differences in the proofs. No doubt, these look enormous to those who like the high grade
proofs.

pmh1nic · September 20, 2003 11:10AM

cladking

So when you said that there was "a small demand for moderns" you meant a small demand relative to the supply since your post clearly conveys that you believe the overall demand with respect to the number of people collecting them is large.

"These (high grade proofs) do actually require some experience to spot the differences."

Spotting the "miniscule differences" is one thing, viewing those differences as justification for paying a 100x premium is another

.

cladking · September 20, 2003 11:32AM

<< 

So when you said that there was "a small demand for moderns" you meant a small demand relative to the supply since your post clearly conveys that you believe the overall demand with respect to the number of people collecting them is large.

>>

No. What I'm trying to say is that the supply of moderns is very small and the demand
for them by those willing to pat more than face value is tiny and growing rapidly.

This isn't to say that the supply of all moderns is very small. There is a very wide range of
availability. A 1976 quarter is excrutiatingly common. 1.6 billion were minted and the attr-
ition has been relatively low since these tend to sit in sock drawers rather than be exposed
to the rigors of circulation. This coin is also excessively common in unc. There were probably
in excess of a hundred million set aside by those seeking a souvenir and by hobbists. Over
the years many of these have enterred circulation but the coin is still very common in unc.
In choice unc it is also fairly common as these were relatively well made for the era. Only in
gem does the coin start becoming a little difficult to find and you have to look at choice gems
before they have any real scarcity. There are many different moderns though and some were
made in small numbers, some were made in large numbers but weren't saved at all, some were
made in large numbers but very few were made nice and far fewer were set aside.

So when I say that the supply of moderns is small I'm referring to the number of sets that can
be completed rather than the total number on the market.

While a collector from circulation is a real collector, he represents no demand. Unless he is will-
ing to pay a premium for a coin then it can have no effect on pricing in the near term. Eventually
some of these sets being assembled from circulation will represent real supply though.

pmh1nic · September 20, 2003 12:50PM

cladking

"So when I say that the supply of moderns is small I'm referring to the number of sets that can
be completed rather than the total number on the market."

What is your guess as to the number of sets that could be completed for the following series of moderns:

Lincoln Memorial Cents
Jefferson Nickels
Roosevelt Dimes
Clad Washington Quarters
Franklin Halves
Kennedy Halves
Ike Dollars
SBA Dollars
Sac Dollars

cladking · September 20, 2003 1:07PM

Lincoln Memorial in unc 3,000,000, ch 500,000, gem 100,000
Jeffersons '61 to date in unc 750,000, ch 250,000, gem 20,000
clad Roosies in unc 500,000, ch 200,000, gem 40,000
clad Washingtons in unc 80,000, ch 15,000, gem 5,000
Kennedies in unc 300,000, ch 25,000, gem 4,000
Ike in unc 1,500,000, ch 150,000, gem 2,000
SBA in unc 2,500,000, ch 300,000, gem 5,000

These are for the regular issue only and include no varieties.
Populations fall off dramatically in choice gem and superb gem. This drop off
is particularly acute for nickels and dollars. Though some of the cents are also
extremely elusive in the highest grades.

Lincoln cent Mania C .......1953 Lincoln Cent @ $8,000 +

Comments

Leave a Comment