If your grading opinion doesn't match the market, are you wrong?
DHeath
Posts: 8,472 ✭✭✭
Just a random thought, but as I read the boards and listen to us discuss grading, it occurs to me that each of us has an internal grading standard that is based on the coins we've seen, books we've read, knowledge of the series we collect. Very often, our own standards are at odds with the market. Sometimes I think the consensus grading standard of the community has very little to do with what I'll pay for a coin, but it is relevant when it is time to sell. As we all search for PQ coins with the exact characteristics we value most, how relevant is the consensus grade. If gradeflation causes baggy coins to become acceptable in 65 holders, does it change your internal standard? It obviously reflects what the market will pay for baggy coins, but does it mean you'll be inclined to purchase them, or will you still seek a fully struck coin with great surfaces and minimal marks regardless of what the consensus of 65 is? If you view a coin as 66 money, does it bother you that 75 out of 100 other collectors see it as a 65, or vice-versa? If strict technical grading causes coins you see as 66 to be viewed as 65 does it bother you? Is your opinion as the buyer the only one that is relevant? How about as a seller? Is it important to be in sync with the current consensus?
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
0
Comments
There is clearly 2 different standards being used here. Us old timers are stuck back in the dinosaur days with our "coins we've seen, books we've read, knowledge of the series we collect" etc. We're happy with that because that is what we know and besides it's much easier to tech grade a coin than try to second guess the ever changing market.
Dealers on the other hand, are in touch with the market on a daily basis; they have to stay current or they fall by the wayside. If toned coins or DMPLs, for example bring higher prices for increased eye appeal, they have to adjust or they underprice & undersale their coins and go broke & out of business. Same thing with the key date & mints etc.
In the meantime the casual or newbie collector is right in the middle of it all scratching his head wondering if anybody actually knows what's going on and getting more confused by the second. Average Joe wonders why he can't get monster coins for greysheet prices and @ the same time why dealers offer him Greysheet prices for his average coins which have lesser attractive tone or blurry mirrors. So Average Joe thinks dealers are rip-offs & scammers and Mr. Dealer is thinking Average Joe is stupid. Either way it's a bad scene but blame can't honestly be placed on either party.
How does this affect me as a buyer? Well us old dinosaurs do have an idea of what coins sell for what and the price it takes to own it. We'll spout tech this and greysheet that on the common generic stuff but when a good coin comes along we'll quietly snag it up. We won't pay hot market, crazy money or fad prices because we know that coin isn't the only one in the world. Times are changing with the Set Registries and it aint like it used to be & I know that, so when I bid in auctions I base my price on what I think it will take to outbid all the other bidders, excepting the crazy must have at any price Set Registry guys and the people that are totaly stupid. Since we're not after #1 Reg Set rankings or Finest Known collections, our kind of coins are somewhat generally available if we have patience we'll sniff them out.
As to will we still seek a fully struck coin with great surfaces and minimal marks regardless of what the consensus of 65 is we kinda balance it all out and may compromise a tick for strike, or lack of cameo in exchange for tone, or some hairlines on the rev for a lower numerical grade if something else makes up for it. Yeah I know that sounds like market grading but we don't go to extremes with it. In plain english we are still strict on our grades but not our prices.
All that is just the way I see it as a collector and I hope what I said makes sense and I'm not necessarily saying everyone should share or even agree with my opinion or what way of thinking is "right" or "wrong" but when I offer my opinion I offer it strongly because in my mind that's what's right to me as a collector.
If I confuse anybody with all that babbling just ask & I'll try to clarify.
JMHO.
Ken
From a buyers standpoint, I rather pay a little more for the nicer quality coin, regardless of what the holder says. When I run across a particular piece that I am looking for and it just has that look, then this is the coin I want to buy. Then, it becomes not a matter of what do I think I could sell it for in the future, or could I get my money back out of it because of the strong price I paid. I usually dont think about that. When I by a piece like that, I am thinking a keeper coin, not one to sale in any near future.
Then it just a matter of whether I can afford it at that minute or not, and do I have enought to get it.
To think that you can use your OWN brain is not only stupid, but also politically incorrect.
To even THINK that you know what you are doing without asking SOMEONE, is the height of arrogance.
It is high time we ALL submitted every opinion and thought that occurs to us (other than daily bodily functions) to higher authority and it is better yet if we have to PAY for that second opinion.
It is only the American way.
<< <i>DHeath
There is clearly...................
If I confuse anybody with all that babbling just ask & I'll try to clarify.
I 'm afraid to ask for your clarification.
that you can get what you like for less.
I collect what I like and don't care what it will resell for later or what consensus grade on it is.
I have some Walkers that I don't know why they are in 64 holders. They look like 65s to me.
They have whatever it is that I value most in a coin. Did PCGS mess up that day? Maybe.
Did the guy selling them to me not know what he was doing? Could be. Is it just that I'm
ignorant in certain areas of grading? Definite possibility. Maybe I value luster and minimal bagmarks
over strike.
I'll continue to look for these "bargain" coins though.
-KHayse
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
In many, if not most cases, I don't think it really matters whether your opinion is "right" or "wrong", as long as you have a good understanding of what "market" grading is all about.
You don't have to agree with it either. But, it is important to at least be aware of the ramifications of having your own, individual grading standards.
If, for example, you are stricter than everyone else, you will end up passing on most coins (perhaps regretting it later) and/or selling some of your beauties for less than you should.
If, on the other hand, your standards are looser than everyone else's, you could end up with a lot of not-so-desirable items at inflated costs (and regret that later) and/or not be able to sell your coins for what you hope/expect.
It's good to be in sync with the standards of the major/highly regarded grading services, even if those standards fluctuate and even if you don't agree with them. Use those standards as a springboard to learn from, adjust to, form your own opinions and make your own, individual purchasing and selling decisions, based on YOUR preferences.
i want to thank you for bringing out the best in Dog. a true POTD candidate!!!!
to the question in the title, no, you ain't wrong. and what i think happens over time with your scenario is that the overall quality of your collection increases. no matter how much the market changes and grading standards ease or tighten, what was a true gem 30 years ago still is, and what is a true gem today still will be in another 30 years.
here's a tip that a local guy gave me. he has his own business so he just does shows on the weekends, no shop or anything. i thought he was setting up at Baltimore but he can't make it, however he gave me a suggestion. he said that if i walk up to a dealers table and just give a once over glance to everything in the cases, the one coin that stands out is the one i should buy. of course, he was talking about eye appeal, something that never changes or goes out of style!!
al h.
JJ Teaparty has a very nice 1913 Barber Half that they are asking $675.00 for. They are calling it an AU50, which it very well may be. It is raw and could as easily grade XF45. I have seen enough auctions to know that if I were to buy the coin from them and try to sell it on Ebay raw like I bought it that I would probably sell it for $400-$500.00. I want the half, I greatly desire it, but I know that with patience I will find one in the $400-$500.00 range and I will wait. Whether I agree on the grade or not is only part of the equation. I don't agree on the price even though the coin looks XF45 to AU50 to me and the retail AU price is in line with JJ's asking price.
Knowledgeable, hardcore collectors will pay above the market place price which I just defined as success in numismatics. I too pay above market prices and break my own rule for success because I weigh originality and scarcity VS the price and opportunity to ever find as nice a coin as the one I could buy.
I do this because I know that some pieces when found nearly perfect for the grade for their scarcity are worth a huge premium, but again this is still factoring the market prices even though it is not reflected thus in the retail pricing guides like the Redbook.
Case in point, within my series if you were to see a beautiful, original VF20 1893-S Barber half on Ebay completely problem free and awesome toning you would pay 50 percent above retail to even have a chance at owning it.
To sum up my mad ramblings success is factoring and taking into account the grade and the going marketplace price for the coin.
Tyler
he said that if i walk up to a dealers table and just give a once over glance to everything in the cases, the one coin that stands out is the one i should buy. of course, he was talking about eye appeal, something that never changes or goes out of style!!
Keets summed it up perfectly
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
You have to interpret how the market will accept your coin, and price accordingly.
LSCC#1864
Ebay Stuff
I see many coins for sale with what I call the 'Double Bump." They IMO will be bumped a point or two by the grading service for color and eye-appeal, then in turn be bumped in price for this inflated technical grade by the seller, as well as yet another bump of the price for the color and eye-appeal.
So these days I've went back to my grumpy (as you all know) old self of technical grading. Now I'm not saying I won't (or do not) pay the premiums associated with nice original color and eye-appeal.... but I try my best to make sure it meets the assigned grade on the technical merits.
Will I miss a coin which by current standards is a ms65? I'm sure I will... but I firmly believe if you have nice clean coins with great eye-appeal you'll never go wrong.
There is one set which tries to model market grading as closely as possible. It is these
standards which determine the market values of coins. The other set of standards is
the yardstick that we each hold a coin to. One person may detest spotting and another
looks for the cleanest coin possible. Some collectors prefer a coin with a great strike and
some with eye appeal.
Is one wrong when his grading doesn't match the market? No. So long as his estimation
of the market value isn't too far off then he can't be wrong. If he sees a coin that he feels
is greatly undervalued because of other peoples' grading standards then he can buy it for
much less than its "true" value. Many times the market will come around to agree with those
who value coins differently and great collections have been formed. In any case he will have
acquired a coin at less than the real value to himself.
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
What consensus? If you or I or any grading service can assign two different grades to a coin on two different days, how can you even begin to think that there's a "right" grade for a coin?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
But as long as I use MY money, my opinion is the only one that counts. And I'm perfectly OK living with whatever impact that has on my ability to buy coins.
-- Dennis
end of story.
K S
can't be wrong. Even if emotion and preconceptions are involved, it's still mostly just
an opinion and can't be wrong. I would contend that sometimes opinions are formed
illogically or on obviously incorrect data and that such opinions are simply wrong. IMHO.
Anyone who believes that more wear, a poorer strike, or more damage enhances the
value of a coin on the market is not only wrong, but will soon find himself broke. If he
understands market grading but prefers such coins because it indicates that the coin
was actually enjoyed by collectors or caused pride at the mint then his opinion on grad-
ing is just wrong too. IMO.
Probably all opinions are wrong to some degree. IMHwO.