Think about moderns.

291fifth · July 13, 2003 6:40AM

Here is something to think about.

Another thread mentions that PCGS graded 140,000 coins in June. What percentage of those would you guess are moderns?

I have also heard that ANACS economy submissions now have a 60 day waiting period. They are running a promotion for moderns. What percentage of the coins they are slabbing are moderns?

I haven't heard anything about NGC but suspect they are as aggressive as any in soliciting moderns.

For how many months will this continue?

Is there a sufficient demand to absorb the quantity being slabbed?

ksteelheader · July 13, 2003 6:47AM

My guess would be that 80% of all submissions are modern....Ken

jonesy · July 13, 2003 6:52AM

Moderns and the AE's probably account for 95%. How else could they do 2 - 3 a minute. I could grade moderns!!

Russ · July 13, 2003 6:53AM

<< Another thread mentions that PCGS graded 140,000 coins in June. What percentage of those would you guess are moderns? >>

While we're "thinking", let's think about this:

There are single years of Morgans graded with more examples than all the graded state quarters combined. There are single years of St. Gaudens graded with more examples than all the Silver and Gold Eagles combined.

Maybe it's really Morgans and Saints clogging up the system.

Russ, NCNE

jonesy · July 13, 2003 6:57AM

What you Talkin about Russ??

jonesy · July 13, 2003 7:03AM

1.4 million Morgans graded. Wow!!

vrtech99 · July 13, 2003 7:26AM

At A BOY RUSS!!!!!!!!!!! Bring alittle common sense and intelligence to this STUPID MISINFORMED idea of moderns clogging the system...............

ms70 · July 13, 2003 7:31AM

I wonder if the stats are available? There's still a lot of moderns not available in PCGS holders yet on eBay.

Hence the huge waiting period.

keets · July 13, 2003 7:37AM

Think about moderns.

can't we not think about moderns and think about something else for the rest of the weekend?? somebody start a classic thread, quickly.

al h.

cladking · July 13, 2003 3:09PM

Sorry Keets. Can't pass this one up.

Moderns are getting graded in large numbers because the demand is there. It will take
years of being graded at this rate to even get close to the number of classics that have
been graded. The market now really needs supply to keep it vibrant and healthy. If the
coins weren't being graded than prices would continue their volatility and demand would
decrease due to this factor and the physical lack of supply. People can't collect what they
can't obtain so these coins are a necessity.

There are about 350 different date/mm/denominations just of the circulation issue moderns.
There are several more hundred special issues and proofs.

If and when the demand for these coins lets up the rate of slabbing will slow to a crawl.

Another thing which is going to slow it down is the eventual elimination of the supply of raw
coins. Most of these coins being submitted were recently pulled out of the rapidly dwindling
supply of mint and proof sets. These sets are in finite supply and they are likely much closer
the end than most realize. With luck this won't happen too soon since the market really needs
supply right now more than any other thing.

Powertrip · July 13, 2003 3:26PM

It might be a thread hijack, but..

I've got a question regarding moderns. When are we going to start seeing some new coin designs?

I could do the research regarding the years between past coin changes, but the simple fact is that many of the coins in circulation today have been around for at least 50 years, if not longer (bicenntennial and state-quarters aside).

Does anyone know if there are any plans to change our 'change'? I'm just sick of looking at the same stuff, and I'm sure most of us would love to add another easily obtained collection to our lists.

-Chris

CoinManiac527 · July 13, 2003 3:58PM

Russ you are 100% correct with your comparisons. One thing I'd like to point out to you though is that state quarters have only been in existence since the late 90's. PCGS and NGC started operation more than a decade earlier than that. Thus, since Morgans and St. Gaudens have always been around for them, they have had 10 more years of time to grade those two types of coins.

Does your argument still hold water?

Also, if moderns aren't the coins that are clogging up the grading process, then what is? Is it the huge craze over seated dimes? Those rabid Mercury dime collectors sending in their coins?? I didn't think so...

PS I know I'm going to get flamed by Russ for this because he just can't accept defeat and lose an argument. Poor Russ.

SmallTownCoins · July 14, 2003 12:18AM

My question is this.... If you took all of the ms-66, 67, 68,, 69 and 70's and popped them all out of the plastic holders,
somehow encoded the original grade, and send them all back in... what percent of them would get a matching grade ?
I give a lot of credit to the grading service's for creating this ultra high end market, and the concept of the "Regestry"
is pure Genius, (for the gradeing company's) but really now, in 10 years is a 1999 ms70 cent going to be worth anything ?
I know I am missing the boat by not being active in this area, but that is my choice....

Russ · July 14, 2003 1:22AM

<< One thing I'd like to point out to you though is that state quarters have only been in existence since the late 90's. PCGS and NGC started operation more than a decade earlier than that. >>

CoinManiac527,

You are absolutely correct.

<< Does your argument still hold water? >>

It wasn't an argument - it was a point illustrating the how lame it is to blame the delay in submission turnaround on moderns. Apparently, you're too dense to grasp such a subtle concept.

Note: The above brought to you courtesy of the following:

<< PS I know I'm going to get flamed by Russ for this because he just can't accept defeat and lose an argument. Poor Russ. >>

Had the snarf not added that to his post, no in-kind response would have been forthcoming.

Russ, NCNE

cladking · July 14, 2003 1:41AM

Smalltowncoin:
I'm not yet familiar enough with the grading by the services to answer this question
with any authority, but it is a near certainty that a higher percentage of the moderns
would regrade the same than the classics. The grading of moderns is much more
straight forward because the coins have for the most part not been dipped, hair lined,
rubbed, and doctored. A modern which looks unc almost certainly is. The speads be-
tween grades for moderns is not necessarily any greater than the spreads between
grades fo classics on a percentage basis. Look at Morgans or other heavily collected
classics and the spreads are ten fold also. The real difference is that most of the moderns
low priced in the lower range of unc and frequently in the mid ranges. It is at these levels
that most collectors concentrate so they can put together entire collections of moderns
for the cost of a single classic in some cases. This also applies at the top of he range
though; A $2,000 pop top modern is a small fraction of the price of an equally rare pop top
classic.

The grading services did not create a market for high grade coins. This has been a trend which
was developing many years before the advent of third party grading. Collectors have been
advised for more than a generation to buy the best they could afford or understand, that quality
would always triumph over quantity, etc, etc. The registries did not allow modern coins until
relatively recently. It was popular demand which spurred them to add modern sets.

Granted it is third party grading which facilitates collection of these coins in top grade. Without
the graders collectors would be largely forced to search through large numbers of moderns to
find their own high grade coins. This would be extremely labor intensive and fewer would have
much interest. The internet puts these coins in front of collectors so it is possible to seek them
out after they are graded. There are far too few modern collectors to support brick and mortar
modern coin shops and most coin dealers have very little knowledge or interest of these coins.
All current issue US coins have been mostly ignored since 1965. It is just nature that eventually
people would pay some attention to them, and since they were ignored many have been allowed
to become rare. It is mostly these four factors driving up the price of moderns and the grading
services were dragged kicking and screaming to the party so you can't "blame" them.

Will an MS-70 1999 cent be worth anything in ten years? As long as moderns are collected there
will be at least some interest in the best quality. Since this market is still so new and so tiny, it
would seem likely that it's going to get bigger before it gets smaller.

Don't worry about "missing the boat". As long as you are collecting good coins then eventually
the market is going to come your way. In the mean time you can have a lot of fun out of the lime
light in a stable market. One has to suspect that the modern markets are in their infancy. There
are still no reference works for many of these coins and the market is still tiny. While I'd never
recommend any coin for investment it should be noted that rare moderns bring a tiny fraction of
the price of equally rare classics. If you collect these coins because they are fun and interesting
than the investment will take care of itself. If you can't have fun or maintain interest than you
really are better off sticking to areas where you can.

addressed

SmallTownCoins · July 14, 2003 2:43AM

CladKing:
What a wonderfull responce, and I would like to Thank you publicly....
I am a newbie here, and I was expecting to get hy head ripped off....
I can "almost" see what your saying, but, being from the old school, a 1997 proof cent, is a 1997 proof cent..... know what I mean ?....
As far as the comment's about Brick & Mortor store's, You are 100% correct...
There would be no support from my local customer for the modern's, except for the one's that come in and cherry pick my proof sets
and Mint set's (which is fine with me) but my real fear is that .... when this "house of cards" comes tumbling down, I dont want to be here,
at the store as a potential dumping grounds for material that I have sold....
As it is now, I anxiously await for the oppurtunity to re-purchase all the coins I have sold for the past 20+ years....
I guess time will tell, it always does...

It was certainly not my intention to rain on anyone's parade, My motto is "buy what you like, It's your money"...,
My intent of my comment's was only to Learn more...

Onward and Upward.....

KlectorKid · July 14, 2003 3:01AM

<< PS I know I'm going to get flamed by Russ for this because he just can't accept defeat and lose an argument. Poor Russ. >>

Your entire post was very well done until this little slip of the lips. Prepare to be...

cladking · July 14, 2003 3:07AM

<< 

There would be no support from my local customer for the modern's, except for the one's that come in and cherry pick my proof sets
and Mint set's (which is fine with me) but my real fear is that .... when this "house of cards" comes tumbling down, I dont want to be here,
at the store as a potential dumping grounds for material that I have sold....
>>

Thankyou and you're welcome.

I don't believe that the modern market is any less "real" than the classic markets.
In both cases people are paying substantial premiums for coins which have low
face values and low metallic values. In both cases one is dependent on people
continuing to buy the coins for reasons other than metallic or face value. This is
not to say that the modern market is as stable as the classics, just that it is always
a leap of faith when collectors shell out hard earned money for coins with very lit-
tle "real" value.

Think about moderns.

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