On on hand, I wish I bought more when gold dipped to $330 or so. On the other hand, even if I had, I would probably end up holding it through this (and any subsequent) peak and valley, anyway. Unlike stocks, gold is much more challenging to buy and sell, the bid/ask spread is significant, and I think that it is very difficult, even for an astute individual of average or above average means, to profit from buying an selling bullion. If I am wrong, please tell me how I might improve in this area.
****ney, you need to change your forum name! I wrote a lengthy reply, and then got a message when I tried to post that I used a forbidden word! The first 4 letters of your name was highlighted as the "forbidden word".
Bottom line to my reply: it really helps to be a Contrarian in the investment game!
This is just another bogus run in gold by the usual marketeers. There is no real reason for gold to have come back to $370 from it's bottom of $319 two months ago. Gold will never make it to $400 this year. The yellow metal is truly a "fool's" game. It was dead 2 months ago and will remain dead for another 20 years!
<< <i>This is just another bogus run in gold by the usual marketeers. There is no real reason for gold to have come back to $370 from it's bottom of $319 two months ago. Gold will never make it to $400 this year. The yellow metal is truly a "fool's" game. It was dead 2 months ago and will remain dead for another 20 years!
roadrunner >>
A "fool's" game? The dollar sets a new low against the Euro? The Fed Chairman and the Administration openly admit they want a lower dollar. Gold goes from $319 to $373 in less than 2 months. That is a 16.9% return in just 2 months. Your bonds and CD's will get that for you in 4 or 5 years!
DCAM, Mr. Winkie at the end of my earlier post indicates my true allegiance. Just a little commentary on all the naysayers that buried gold for the "final" time a few short weeks ago. Gold is not going away any time soon.
As stated above, the run on the dollar is real and deliberate. I suspect the dollar will be kept artificially low until we see a rise in the overall US economy. While many economic indicators are better than in the recent past, the terrorism wildcard can be played at any time. Absent a terrorist attack of significance in the continental US, expect to see some real economic progress by October. If progress comes, the dollar dump may end and the dollar will strengthen. Best case scenario, could be a rapid run up.
Somebody print this and tell me I was full of it when October proves me wrong!
"You keep your 1804 dollar and 1822 half eagle -- give me rainbow roosies in MS68." rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
This rise in the price of gold is real. The rise in the price of pre 33 Gold coins in ms63 and above is real. As is always the case, most people will wait to buy them until the price is much higher than they are now. Those who have them should hold on to them until people who dont buy gold coins start buying them. That is when it will be time to sell. When you see postings on this board by folks who scoff at gold coins now saying they have bought this or that Saint or Indian eagle, that is when it will be time for me to sell the ones I have been buying for the last five or six years.
In an insane society, a sane person will appear to be insane.
I agree. The time to sell gold will be when we are inundated with newbies here asking for advice on how to buy gold. That, or the mutual fund company, Munder, rolling out a new "Gold-Gold" mutual fund.
That is a 16.9% return in just 2 months. Your bonds and CD's will get that for you in 4 or 5 years!
Yeah, but today (May 21st) I sold my MO Jan 04 35 calls for a 200% return after buying them on May 5th! $155 to $470. Let's see gold ever do that! Of course, options have a ton of risk, but I just don't think gold moves fast enough.
Personally, while I think gold always has the potential to go up, it's long term seems somewhat limited. For example, even 5 or 10 years from now, who sees gold over $1500 an ounce. Without the 4-5 fold potential (that is a key word), is it really worth risking your money? Even if gold is over $800 2 years from now (which I really doubt), I bet it will underperform many stocks during that time frame.
JJacks
Always buying music cards of artists I like! PSA or raw! Esp want PSA 10s 1991 Musicards Marx, Elton, Bryan Adams, etc. And 92/93 Country Gold AJ, Clint Black, Tim McGraw PSA 10s
Without the 4-5 fold potential (that is a key word), is it really worth risking your money?
JJacks,
It strikes me that you and I approach the deployment of risk capital in the exact opposite way. My first query rather than, 'what is the potential upside', is always...'how much can I lose'. With options the answer is always 100%. You can catch a gap down (or up) without the opportunity to cut your losses. Deep 'in the money' options minimize this risk, but its still there.
I'm not a gold bug, but the fact that gold is not likely to make a 400-500% increase over the next few years would NEVER strike me as reason not to own it. Rather I would ask, what are the chances is will sustain a 30-40% decline over the same time period. The lower I think the chances are of erroding my investment, the more I like the asset class, ESPECIALLY if I believe there is the OPPORTUNITY for some sizeable upside. But I repeat, upside, is not the PRIMARY consideration. Capital preservation is. You've got to stay in the game, and you have to preserve your capital to stay in the game. In those terms, I think Gold is a much better store of value than options. Not my number one choice, but I own a little.
I just wanted to respond to your post because I appreciate your opinion. Of course, the first thing that makes an investment "good" or "bad" really has nothing to do with the investment itself, but the amount of risk tolerance that one has.
Being younger still, and not making a ton of money, it seems more necessary for me to invest my money in a way that would have some serious potential. If I were 55 and had $1,000,000 in the bank, or something, I suppose that I would be as conservative as anyone. I simply don't have enough money to be able to be happy with simply preserving my money with little or no chance of large gains.
My biggest problem with gold investing isn't meant as a bashing of gold itself. It's just plain and simple that if someone came up to me with some form of new investment that I had never heard of for example, and I asked "In the best case scenario, how much do you think this could go up in say 5-10 years", and if the answer was something like "Well, maybe a double could be possible. A triple would be an extreme long shot even in 15-20 years", and there was still risk in the investment (As their is in gold), I wouldn't exactly be thrilled about the prospects. And I don't think even most gold bulls would even dream of gold going much over $700-800 at least not for a very, very long time. I mean, if you invest say $36800 today for 100 ounces of gold, and it falls back to say $320, you have lost $4800, but even in the best scenaio, where gold goes to $800 an ounce, you would make "only" $40000. Admittedly, that is a good profit, but nothing compared to best case scenarios in Real Estate, stocks, options, and other potentially riskier investments.
I will note that one good thing about options is that they can have such large percentage gains that you don't need to invest huge amounts of money up front. It is true of course that you can lose 100% of your investment, often in 3-6 months, but investments in options are often much smaller. For example, no one in their right mind would invest $36800 in one option series if that was a large percentage of their money. The fact that options can return such large amounts allow you to have 100% losses on your small investments every once in a while, but not get hurt too bad, because you only invested say $250 or $500 or $1000 to start with. I would rather lose $1000 on a $1000 investment, then to lose $4000 on a $30000 investment.
Thanks for your opinion in any case.
JJacks
Always buying music cards of artists I like! PSA or raw! Esp want PSA 10s 1991 Musicards Marx, Elton, Bryan Adams, etc. And 92/93 Country Gold AJ, Clint Black, Tim McGraw PSA 10s
Cockney
Posts: 418
Comments
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Bottom line to my reply: it really helps to be a Contrarian in the investment game!
Vietnam Vet 1968-1969
roadrunner
<< <i>This is just another bogus run in gold by the usual marketeers. There is no real reason for gold to have come back to $370 from it's bottom of $319 two months ago. Gold will never make it to $400 this year. The yellow metal is truly a "fool's" game. It was dead 2 months ago and will remain dead for another 20 years!
roadrunner >>
A "fool's" game? The dollar sets a new low against the Euro? The Fed Chairman and the Administration openly admit they want a lower dollar. Gold goes from $319 to $373 in less than 2 months. That is a 16.9% return in just 2 months. Your bonds and CD's will get that for you in 4 or 5 years!
roadrunner
Somebody print this and tell me I was full of it when October proves me wrong!
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
I agree. The time to sell gold will be when we are inundated with newbies here asking for advice on how to buy gold. That, or the mutual fund company, Munder, rolling out a new "Gold-Gold" mutual fund.
Robert
That is a 16.9% return in just 2 months. Your bonds and CD's will get that for you in 4 or 5 years!
Yeah, but today (May 21st) I sold my MO Jan 04 35 calls for a 200% return after buying them on May 5th! $155 to $470. Let's see gold ever do that! Of course, options have a ton of risk, but I just don't think gold moves fast enough.
Personally, while I think gold always has the potential to go up, it's long term seems somewhat limited. For example, even 5 or 10 years from now, who sees gold over $1500 an ounce. Without the 4-5 fold potential (that is a key word), is it really worth risking your money? Even if gold is over $800 2 years from now (which I really doubt), I bet it will underperform many stocks during that time frame.
JJacks
i think saints generic ms 64 65 pcgs ngc
will go up and become more and more little by little numismatic everyday
i think there are still thousands of bags in europe!! i think there is a bag or a horde of 27-d
i think gold is due for a long run up
based on past experience i am usually wrong...................lol
i guess only time will tell
sincerely michael
JJacks,
It strikes me that you and I approach the deployment of risk capital in the exact opposite way. My first query rather than, 'what is the potential upside', is always...'how much can I lose'. With options the answer is always 100%. You can catch a gap down (or up) without the opportunity to cut your losses. Deep 'in the money' options minimize this risk, but its still there.
I'm not a gold bug, but the fact that gold is not likely to make a 400-500% increase over the next few years would NEVER strike me as reason not to own it. Rather I would ask, what are the chances is will sustain a 30-40% decline over the same time period. The lower I think the chances are of erroding my investment, the more I like the asset class, ESPECIALLY if I believe there is the OPPORTUNITY for some sizeable upside. But I repeat, upside, is not the PRIMARY consideration. Capital preservation is. You've got to stay in the game, and you have to preserve your capital to stay in the game. In those terms, I think Gold is a much better store of value than options. Not my number one choice, but I own a little.
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
"The silver is mine and the gold is mine,' declares the LORD GOD Almighty."
Greg,
I just wanted to respond to your post because I appreciate your opinion. Of course, the first thing that makes an investment "good" or "bad" really has nothing to do with the investment itself, but the amount of risk tolerance that one has.
Being younger still, and not making a ton of money, it seems more necessary for me to invest my money in a way that would have some serious potential. If I were 55 and had $1,000,000 in the bank, or something, I suppose that I would be as conservative as anyone. I simply don't have enough money to be able to be happy with simply preserving my money with little or no chance of large gains.
My biggest problem with gold investing isn't meant as a bashing of gold itself. It's just plain and simple that if someone came up to me with some form of new investment that I had never heard of for example, and I asked "In the best case scenario, how much do you think this could go up in say 5-10 years", and if the answer was something like "Well, maybe a double could be possible. A triple would be an extreme long shot even in 15-20 years", and there was still risk in the investment (As their is in gold), I wouldn't exactly be thrilled about the prospects. And I don't think even most gold bulls would even dream of gold going much over $700-800 at least not for a very, very long time. I mean, if you invest say $36800 today for 100 ounces of gold, and it falls back to say $320, you have lost $4800, but even in the best scenaio, where gold goes to $800 an ounce, you would make "only" $40000. Admittedly, that is a good profit, but nothing compared to best case scenarios in Real Estate, stocks, options, and other potentially riskier investments.
I will note that one good thing about options is that they can have such large percentage gains that you don't need to invest huge amounts of money up front. It is true of course that you can lose 100% of your investment, often in 3-6 months, but investments in options are often much smaller. For example, no one in their right mind would invest $36800 in one option series if that was a large percentage of their money. The fact that options can return such large amounts allow you to have 100% losses on your small investments every once in a while, but not get hurt too bad, because you only invested say $250 or $500 or $1000 to start with. I would rather lose $1000 on a $1000 investment, then to lose $4000 on a $30000 investment.
Thanks for your opinion in any case.
JJacks