Seated Dollars still undervalued?

tradedollarnut · May 17, 2003 6:10AM

A Study on price trends in Seated Dollars:

I was comparing prices in Bowers 1992 Silver Dollar Encyclopedia, his 1997 Buyers Guide to Silver Dollars, Trends and Auction Prices realized. It became apparent to me that the price guides in certain instances have created a false level for coins that rarely trade. It isn’t until an auction comes along and sets things straight that the price guides (hopefully) are corrected.

Many people were shocked by the prices realized in the Rudolf Collection recently sold by Stacks. I decided to go back and take a look at a few coins value and price realized history in order to try to make sense of the results. Here’s just a few:

1840 PCGS MS63:

Bowers/Trends in MS63 for 1992, 1997 and 2003
MS63: $4750, 4200, $8250.
Auction price realized: $46,000

Apparently the Rudolf coin was graded as a lock MS64 by at least two bidders. The only certified MS64 last sold at auction in 1990 for $17,600. Based on the 1990 realized price and the Rudolf sale, $46,000 seems correct as the current appx value for a believed MS64 coin. If a pop 2 tied finest known MS64 is worth that much - aren't other rare MS64's worth more than current list values?

1845 NGC MS64:

Bowers 1992 value is listed at $34,500. This same Norweb coin sold in 1996 at $33,000. Value is unlisted in all price guides currently. It fetched $80,500 at the sale. Based upon the 1992 price and the two prices realized, $80,000 appears to be the appropriate current value for this grade. This is substantiated by the CW Trends MS63 value of $35,000.

1846/1847 PCGS MS65:

Bowers/Graysheet in MS65 for 1992, 1997 and 2003
MS65: $31000, 27500, 20000.
Auction price realized $51,750

Here’s the problem with the current price guides – coins that rarely trade are often totally undervalued. Bowers price in 1992 of $31,000 would equate to a good bit more than $50,000 today – apparently the price guides slowly eroded the apparent value of the coin – it wasn’t until one actually came on the market that the false erosion became apparent. If graysheet had shown a more appropriate bid of, say, $40k for these coins, I expect they might have fetched even more than the $50k that they did!

MS68 · May 17, 2003 6:44AM

I also think these coins are grossly undervalued compared to other dollars with similar rarities. My two favorite Seated dollars in the recent Stacks sale were the 1868 in PCGS MS66 and the 1871-CC that was raw that I thought was a lock 63+ shot 64 coin. The 71-CC was by far the best for the date I have ever seen. Had I not been informed before the sale that the collector had a huge bid on the coin, I would have cost him a bit more on it. The 1868 was the most amazing mint state Seated dollar I have ever seen, period. It was as close to a 67 that it could possibly be without making it. Just a touch of a luster break on the high points was holding it back. The fields were flawless. Too bad it wasn't a commem or I would have had to own it for my collection.

Legend · May 17, 2003 7:19AM

Dave,
I know the sight of you in the room "spooked" the collector real good who bought the 1868!

I represented him and I know you made him nervous! You have a powerful reputaion! Do me a favor, start thinking more about foreign coins huh?

coinkat · May 17, 2003 9:22AM

Yes they are... the high MS grades have a thin market in contrast to other series, but could move higher. Even nice original lower grades ranging from EF45 to AU58 are good values and will move higher as they become more widely appreciated by collectors.

Coinosaurus · May 17, 2003 12:54PM

TDN-

I feel the concept of price guides for these kinds of coins is somewhat meaningless. They are thinly traded, highly subject to the whims of a few top collectors, & I would look at price appreciation only in terms of the exact same coin selling multiple times. For this sort of material, you are almost pricing them like unique works of art. To place an accurate value on them requires real insider knowledge like exactly who is buying them, what they need in their collection, and what side of the bed they get up on on the day of the auction

tradedollarnut · May 17, 2003 12:57PM

To place an accurate value on them requires real insider knowledge like exactly who is buying them, what they need in their collection, and what side of the bed they get up on on the day of the auction

Coinosaurus: if you knew how many times I tweaked my bids, you'd know just how accurate your statement was!

Julian · May 17, 2003 1:26PM

When real rarities come on the market, it is always a difficult time calculating a bid. Like many have experienced, sometimes you have to decide exactly how much you really want the coin, close your eyes, and pray.

Bidding, over the years, for some very enthusiastic and wealthy collectors, I get an idea of the price that they are thinking about and then look at the overall picture of the collection. Is it the last coin to finish a project, or is it just a piece of the pie? Some of the items, that I have stretched the most for at auction, have been among the most prized parts of a collection. The rarer the item, the less concrete your bid can be.

Collectors, when they have just set a new level for a rarity, often have buyers remorse. Underbidders also have remorse.

As someone said, I cannot remember who, that the price will long be forgotten, but the pride of ownership will last a long time.

dragon · May 18, 2003 12:22AM

Coinosaurus,

I think you hit the nail on the head exactly. There just aren't enough high grade Seated Dollars in existence to make any type of pricing guide or bid sheet, reliable, or any type of liquid two-way bid/ask market for them IMO. I think the best indicator is just what a particular coin last sold for at auction or through a private transaction.

dragon

tradedollarnut · May 18, 2003 12:55AM

When it first became known about the Rudolf collection coming up for sale, I started trying to figure out what to bid on the 71-CC. Research showed the Norweb MS63 had sold in 1999 for around $110,000. I asked a friend what he thought it would sell for today. He said about the same or a bit less! I disagreed as the series is a lot hotter now than in 1999 - a lot hotter! I guessed the coin would sell in the $175-200k range at an auction today and that the Stack coin would sell for significantly more due to its eye appeal [the Norweb coin is relatively unattractive] and the fact that the Stack coin may grade 64. Also, I knew that the Stack 71-CC had sold for just under 1/3 the price realized of the Stack 70-S in the 1995 sale. My best guess was that the 1870-S was going to bring at least $1M in the Rudolf sale, leading me to put an approximate minimum value of $300k on the 71-CC.

Is this iteration an example of what you mean, Dragon?

barberlover · May 18, 2003 1:06AM

I still see type date "if there is such a thing in seated dollars" in pcgs/ngc 64 selling for 5-6 K

Are those coins if properly graded good buys ? Les

MrEureka · May 18, 2003 1:06AM

deleted

dragon · May 18, 2003 1:17AM

Yes TDN, that's pretty much what I meant. I think if you know the series well, research past auction records, and understand current market conditions, your pre-auction guesstimate will usually be pretty close. All it takes however, is two people who are assembling a world class set that 'can't live without' a certain coin, and then sometimes even the best pre-sale guesstimates can be thrown out the window IMO.

dragon

barberlover · May 18, 2003 5:09AM

Any seated dollar buffs answer the question i put up a couple posts before this one?

tradedollarnut · May 18, 2003 5:18AM

IMO, spend a bit more and buy a scarcer date in 64. There are some real bargains out there...

roadrunner · May 18, 2003 6:02AM

Barberlover,

All seated dollars are relatively early type coins since they end at 1873. Much seated stuff prior to 1873 is very underrated due to all the coinage problems experienced from the 1850's through mid-1870's. I think any nicely graded seated dollar in 64 and up at anywhere close to published price levels is a great value. Many seated dollars are either overly dark or over-dipped. Most are fairly heavy on the marks too. Finding nice ones is a challenge, even the 60-0.

Now that bust dollars have been run up fairly well, seated dollars lag well behind in price. This won't last much longer.

roadrunner

Legend · May 18, 2003 6:11AM

How come nobodys mentioning the 1840 PCGS MS63 in the Rudolf Sale? The coin went for OVER $40,000.00! I should know-I was the underbidder.

I needed it "as is" for a collector. I believe a collector in the middle of the room bought it. Even if you graded the coin MS64, its still a tall price to pay.

My point, the 1840 is the epitomey of the "new" Seated Dollar market. The sheets have forever been inaccurate since these pieces are so rare. Sheet on the 1840 is ONLY $11,000.00 in MS63, $17,000.00 in MS64. Why even bother? Granted, the price realized from the Stacks sale does NOT mean all MS63's are worth $40,000.00, but it does prove the sheets are totally inaffective for the date and really the series.

And to answer Barberlover, YES! ALL true NICE MS64 Seated Dollars are great buys at todays levels ($6-8,000.00)!

barberlover · May 18, 2003 6:41AM

Hi Laura, I guess that means i should have baught the one i saw last year for 5400, but even though the luster was full and the surfaces were clean it was an ugly shade of dark toning. I don't remember the date of it.

tradedollarnut · May 18, 2003 8:38AM

Barberlover - You did right to pass on a 64 with ugly dark toning. You are far better off to pay a premium for a flashy 64 that is a pleasure to look at. It might take much longer to find, but you won't regret the wait.

I did NOT know that Legend was the underbidder on the 1840. I did know that Laura did not grade it a 64. That price is amazing! The previous high auction price was just under $16k for a 63 - this result almost tripled the previous high! $46k for a pop 8, 1 finer MS63 should point to a few more coins that are grossly undervalued in the series. For example, the 1841 with the same pop, the 1844 (pop 4, one finer) and the 1856 (pop 6, one finer) appear to be candidates for huge price adjustments!

zep · May 18, 2003 10:19AM

TDN,

Aren't prices getting a little "bubbly"?

EVillageProwler · May 18, 2003 10:29AM

By "bubbly", I assume that you mean speculative. If so, then I disagree because these coins are amazingly rare in choice, original and eye appealing condition (circ as well as unc). In fact, most Seated denoms and dates are like this.

It takes but one or two additional players to affect the price curve at either the circ or unc levels. Say that you have a new player at the ChAU level who's looking for the premium pieces. Those specimens are few and very far between, so the prices go up when they appear on the market. Those pieces are already fetching over 60 money nowadays (and for the past few years). How much higher (over 60 money) can they go before they apply serious upward pressure on the UNC prices?

Or, suppose you have a new player at the UNC level. He wants nice pieces at the 62PQ level and up. Many dates are unavailable above 64, and the few specimens available for those tougher dates at 63 can't hold up to even a single new collector. What happens when you have 3/0 1850 specimens in 63 with a collector base of at least a half dozen?

Collecting SD's is a tough adventure. The uptick in pricing is not likely to be speculative...

EVP

Baley · May 18, 2003 10:51AM

IMO seated dollars are only starting to get the recognition they deserve.

Try to find them: they are not out there in any significant quantity, in any solid grade:
most are cleaned at best and mutilated/nasty at worst. of course, the vast majority of the mintage is melted and gone forever.

A true gem BU or gem proof seated dollar is beautiful beyond words, and even VFs and EFs and AUs are pretty nice and impressive and scarcer than most people think.

most collectors dont even have a seated dollar. even for intermediate level type collectors, it's one of the last coins most of them get.

any increase in demand at all is likely to spur prices, as many have written here, there just aren't enough to go around.

coinkat · May 18, 2003 11:19AM

Agreed...I think this series will have its day in the sun.

Sunnywood · May 18, 2003 12:05PM

TDN & EVP,

Sorry, I have to disagree with you guys. The Rudolf Sale had quite a few stupidly high prices paid (and others that were reasonable). How many dealers still talk about "The 1989 high for that coin was ... " Stupid auction prices do not always firmly indicate a sustainable market or valuation. Besides, it's a little self-serving to talk up the values of the series that you have been collecting. I would be more impressed by your analysis of series that you DON'T own. Have you ever heard equities analysts say, "By the way, I own shares in this company that I'm hyping"?? No, it's usually, "My firm has no position in the stocks we are recommending, nor have we traded in them at any time in the last three months ... " etc

Sorry to be a contrary spoilsport !!
Sunnywood

Legend · May 18, 2003 12:14PM

Sunnywood DOES have a point.

About 2 years ago when a NGC PR67 UCam Morgan sold for $28,000.00 all the greedy genius dealers grabbed that price and thought that was the market. Well it was-just on THAT particular coin!

However, the Rudolf Sale DID show that overall the MS Seated Dollars ARE undervalued. But an 1840 PCGS MS63 is worth no where near the $40,000.00+ the one just sold for!

If anyone has the other 1846 or 1847 PCGS MS65's, I'll pay $40,000.00 each sightUNSEEN. Call me!

EVillageProwler · May 18, 2003 12:19PM

Besides, it's a little self-serving to talk up the values of the series that you have been collecting.

Fair enough, I suppose. But, look at things from my perspective: I am still an active collector of this series, and likely will be until the day I die. It is in my best interest for the series to remain depressed until I am ready to sell, which won't be for another -- oh, say -- FIFTY years. I would sell everything else first before I sell my SD's. I'd even rather part with my R.6+ collection of ED's first!

Of course, my analysis can still be wrong. But, I'd like to believe that I was sincere in what I was saying...

And, in case you're wondering, I wasn't offended by your negative critique of my analysis.

EVP

EVillageProwler · May 18, 2003 12:22PM

Let's wait one cotton-pickin' minute!!!

I never claimed that the PRL for the Rudolf SD's were the market *in general*. I merely felt that the SD, as a series, is undervalued and highly vulnerable to price increases due to minor increases in collector demand.

EVP

Sunnywood · May 18, 2003 12:28PM

EVP,

Points well taken. No offense intended, and I'm glad none taken ...

Sunnywood

tradedollarnut · May 18, 2003 12:40PM

Sunnywood: I have to disagree that I'm incorrectly "talking up" the series. In my first post, I portrayed four coins in an attempt to put their price realized in perspective. The 1840 price was stupid IF the coin doesn't end up in a 64 holder [which it won't according to feedback]. The 1845 price seems right on [it was actually less than I was willing to pay] and so do the 1846/47 prices - especially in light of Laura's sight unseen offer. So am I hyping the series or am I showing why some of the prices occurred? I think the latter.

Does it make sense that a rare date pop 5 coin with only one higher in a popular series would sell for under $8,000? An 1848 in PCGS MS63 recently did. The $46k realized for the 1840 at Rudolf was stupid high, but $8,000 for the 1848 a few months ago is stupid low. A good example of an undervalued series. JMHO.

ANACONDA · May 18, 2003 1:02PM

I like Seated Dollars. Sold one for $71,000. A common date in 67 Ultra Cam.

But, they're not nearly as popular as many other coins. I think they're a wee bit boring...not to me, but to many others.

Bust dollars are more interesting...the design is better, many would say.

The series has so many mint mark and date combinations that a collection by date is a huge undertaking and the fact that it's a
huge undertaking of fairly expensive coins doesn't help. So, in some ways their rarity precludes their desirability.

adrian

clw54 · May 18, 2003 1:09PM

<< <i>The series has so many mint mark and date combinations that a collection by date is a huge undertaking and the fact that it's a
huge undertaking of fairly expensive coins doesn't help. So, in some ways their rarity precludes their desirability. >>

This could be a lot of it. I like Seated Dollars, but to be realistic I can't put together a complete set. There's only around 10 people in the world who can have a complete set at one time. That leaves it as a type coin for most.

ANACONDA · May 18, 2003 1:16PM

Of course, TDN, the topic you're primarily interested in is accuracy of the sheets, not much of what i originally posted. Many things go
into what gets written in the sheets and my thinking is that there are so many coins and so many grades and so many sheets that the
few people who communicate values just can't do a good job. And by the way, if you think a price is innaccurate, you can pick up the phone,
call the greysheet folks and make your case. I didn't say they will do what you want, but you can talk to them out there and converse with you
about the topic at hand.

So, if the sheets are "accurate" it may be a fluke, a series that was recently examined or a series that is followed closely and hence creates
a demand for accuracy. (Having one guy mad because the sheets don't accuratley reflect Seated Dollar values creates a different scenario
that that created by all the irritated Lincoln collectors. Having innaccurate sheets for early copper is like Seated Dollars in some ways but for different reasons...they have their own sheets (CQR) and their own little world of make believe grades.)

Furthermore, i think the sheets are often used mistakenly to set the price as opposed to reflecting what the coins are worth. (It's a fine
distinction but a true one in my opinion.)

EVillageProwler · May 18, 2003 1:22PM

There's only around 10 people in the world who can have a complete set at one time.

If you do not include the '70-S, they're not that tough to get. If you're talking about a purely UNC set, then it's far fewer than 10 people. If you include the '70-S, keep in mind that there's only 9 specimens extant and only a single specimen in UNC.

EVP

ANACONDA · May 18, 2003 1:29PM

Here's a question for you, TDN or anyone else who cares to answer:

What do you believe is the approximate value of an 1860 Seated Dollar in NGC Proof 65 Ultra Cam, most evolved NGC holder with
Numismatic Guaranty Corporation written in the border on the front of the slab?

The coin is totally white (most surely conserved), average for marks. The mirrors are pretty good but not stellar and the same for the devices.

No significant distractions.
It is not in an upcoming public auction.

Legend · May 18, 2003 1:35PM

Anaconda,

There is NO correct value for that coin. ANY UCam's value is based upon the coins depth and real clarity of mirrors. I have only EVER seen ONE that had real Ultra mirrors. If there is even the slightest bit of haze, then its a coin thats worth $17,500.00. If it is a drop dead headlight screaming coin with mirrors to die for, then can be worth $40,000.00 or more. I have handled MANY Seated Dollar UCAM Proofs. My answer is from experience.

Anyway, the Proofs are NOT nearly as undervalued as the MS pieces. I think this discussion was about MS pieces, not Proofs.

ANACONDA · May 18, 2003 1:40PM

Thanks, Laura, for the info. I'll move my question into it's own thread as i think you're right, the issue is mint state coins, not proofs.

RELLA · May 18, 2003 2:03PM

IF you pick the right individual coins Seated Dollars are very undervalued. If you cracked open all the slabs where a similar Washington Quarter would BB the certified populations of these coins would plummet IMO. But too long a series? Too many tough dates? Hard to find in MSanything? Compare the Dollars to the other denominations for once. I used to buy that "ultra-rare" line about these; before I did any real research. If you're used to Morgans these look really tough, if you're used to Seated Quarters it looks like a $$$ problem more than a rarity problem...unless you confine yourself to problem-free coins; then it gets tough again.

RELLA

ohbaby · May 18, 2003 2:10PM

One of the best threads in a long time! So many good points being made as well.

Seated $ are truly rare coins {look at those mintages} but it is also their undoing. As someone mentioned how can one ever expect to complete a set and send Jr. to college and expect to pay the home off by retirement? Series that are too long and/or too expensive never get a good base of collectors like say Walkers/Mercs/Frankies [all series I could do without].

As for pricing of the super high end $'s I feel it sometimes runs on the greater fool theory. I was a fool to pay millions and I hope someone dumber will pay a billion to bail me out. Or, someone just feels flush at one auction and bids up a coin to a ridiculous level and suddenly every thinks every coin is worth that amount.

The coins are beautiful and rare but the prices for some of them are absurd.

LegendSteve · May 19, 2003 1:11AM

Roger,

Let's compare the Seated dollars to their dime, quarter and half dollar counterparts... Admittedly, these three series are exceedingly tough to complete in AU50 to MS62, and the dollars quite a bit easier. (I'm discounting the classical rarities, like the '73-CC N/A 25c, '53-O N/A 50c and the '70-S $1.)

But, for the purposes of this discussion, we're really talking about higher-end stuff, with MS63 being a low-end specimen and MS64 being the average grade. In the other three series, you can put together quite a run of nice specimens in 63 to 65 with reasonable ease. With the dollars, however, minus 5 or 6 dates, the entire series is condition census at 64.

So, in absolute terms, you're correct. But, you must know TDN; he doesn't look at the entire spectrum of grades like many others...

Regards,

Steve

Trime · May 19, 2003 3:38AM

This is an amazing discusion among Steve, Laura, and Dave. Like a family reunion.

Sunnywood · May 19, 2003 6:17AM

MS68,

Did you ever see the Jimmy Hayes 1866 MS seated dollar that was in the Sotheby's Moores Collection sale? (Then PCGS MS66, later NGC MS67). I thought that was the best MS seated dollar ever, even better than the Rudolf 1868 !! I still kick myself for not having bought it (even moreso now, after Rudolf ... ). Then there was the Pittman 1860-O, that's a gorgeous coin, but not as technically flawless as the Hayes 1866.

TDN, do you own either of these? Theya re fabulous examples. I hope you will post pics of your MS seated dollars at some point.

Sunnywood

Julian · May 19, 2003 6:48AM

Just a little aside here. I sold Jimmy the 1866 in the early 70's for $725, if memory serves me correctly.

SethChandler · May 19, 2003 6:51AM

Julian, What would a common date BU go for back then? Was that considered a "crazy" price to pay by Rep. Hayes? Seth

RELLA · May 19, 2003 6:58AM

Steve,

I see you are going to make me use statistics on you.

Here's an easy one to start with...since you are talking about difficulty in MS63 or better: In Seated Quarters there are 34 coins with 5 or fewer examples certified MS62 or better by PCGS. For Seated Dollars there are 7 coins that have 5 or fewer examples certified MS62 or better by PCGS. I know that there are some really plentiful common dates out there in the lower denominations...but we were talking about building a series here not buying type coins (or at least that's what I was talking about).

RELLA

LegendSteve · May 19, 2003 7:23AM

tjkillian · May 19, 2003 7:27AM

I recently purchased my first Seated Dollar. It is a proof, which I prefer as all the MS coins have so many marks or it is prohibitively expensive.

Tom

RELLA · May 19, 2003 7:31AM

I'm not sure what that means; but I'm gonna guess it means that you are now writhing in the crushing grasp of my logic.

RELLA

Baley · May 19, 2003 7:36AM

hey Tom nice dollar, the same date represents the type in my album, the coin lightly circulated, lightly cleaned, if I were to invest in anything nicer it would certainly stay in the slab, this one I busted out:

the picture is not the best, the coin and especially the reverse still has a little cameo goin on.

twins separated at birth? they've lived very different lives.

Sunnywood · May 19, 2003 7:59AM

Julian !!!

If you have another example of equal quality, I would be pleased to offer you $725 for it !!!!!

You have certainly been at this game long enough to know more than most of us !!!!!!

Sunnywood

tradedollarnut · May 19, 2003 8:09AM

No - I don't own the Jimmy Hayes 1866 or the Rudolf 1868.

Last I saw, the price on the 1866 was $125k - tho it might have gone up now!

IMO, those top pop supergrade coins aren't the bargains. The bargains are the low pop early MS63s and MS64s. Or any nice coin near sheet since sheet is woefully pathetic!

EVillageProwler · May 19, 2003 8:22AM

Hey Tom,

That's a nice Seated Dollar you got there!

EVP

tjkillian · May 19, 2003 9:25AM

EVP, thanks. I bought it from a really cool guy from New York. He really knows his coins.

Thanks again, it really is a nice coin.

Tom

Seated Dollars still undervalued?

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