@illini420 said:
I love this, relatively large mintage and household limit of 1. Should be easy for anyone that wants one of these to get them from the Mint on day one. Should cut down on the complaining about bots and flippers taking them all.
After day one when the household limit is lifted, we'll see what happens!
Again, that mintage is so far out of line for anything selling at $5,200 if priced according to the grid today that it almost certainly has to be a mistake. TBD.
At that mintage and that price, it's hard to see interest even if they mix in a few privies, but I guess anything is possible with them nowadays. My money is on the mintage being a mistake, given that the only numismatic gold that ever had a mintage like that was the 2009 UHR St. Gaudens, and the early proof gold eagles that were novelties at the time and sold for a tiny fraction of today's prices, and a tiny premium to spot as compared to today.
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
@NJCoin said:
Again, that mintage is so far out of line for anything selling at $5,200 if priced according to the grid today that it almost certainly has to be a mistake. TBD.
Or hubris. 99% of the stuff they turn out these days is total junk. Also remember the people authorizing these are the same ones that found the Presidential Seal and Trump's face to be "emblematic of the United States Semiquincentennial" so as to authorize the companion $1 base metal piece. Politics aside, they are out of touch with reality IMHO. I do not think it is a typo.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Yeah, I'm not buying gold coins until spot is back down to $35 per ounce.
That’s a straw man argument. That is many orders of magnitude lower. And the spike in spot is a recent phenomenon based on speculation and geopolitical uncertainty. Caveat emptor.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
I think The Donald should stamp out 50 Trillion of his bucks, after costs that could zero national debt.
At 75k made these 24k will linger for years till gold drops or spikes with a heads up to buy before price increases. Like what happened with silver last year. I got alot of $90 an ounce ASE $ Morgan & Peace before markup doubled.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
Are unsold coins melted? If the market is overly saturated, I can never see this being anything more than a bullion coin.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
Are unsold coins melted? If the market is overly saturated, I can never see this being anything more than a bullion coin.
Yes, that's typically the way the Mint handles it. Unsold product is melted (but sometimes it stays available for sale for quite awhile first) and the final mintage is adujsted for coins sold, not what was actually struck and later melted. With a max mintage of 75,000 I wouldn't think they would strike all 75,000 coins in advance. Probably a smaller number for what they think will sell at the beginning. Then if ordering is strong enough, later buyers will be on backorder waiting for more coins to be struck, up to the 75,000 max. Just a guess.
Will be interesting to see how many the advance buyers will take.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
I mean the market doesn't support it because sales are far lower than they used to be, at lower prices and lower premiums.
Part of the that drop off is due to the spot price, but part is also the premium. How do I know this? Because premiums for gem generic classic gold have collapsed. The quantity is fixed, and lack of demand drove premiums down towards zero as spot turned a $2K coin with $1K worth of gold into a $4K coin with $4K worth of gold.
That is the best proxy we have for the premium for numismatic gold. It's why the Mint used to sell tens of thousands of proof one ounce gold coins, and now 7500-15K is about all they can sell.
Sure, they'll always sell something at any price. They even sold some $20K gold Liberty Bells. But the market does not support $1K premiums for modern numismatic gold, which is why the mintages are anemic. Not because there are less than 20K people in the world with an interest in numismatic gold coins.
As a result, I still think 75K is a mistake. 10K is 10K, and it's not nothing. It's around what I think they can sell.
But it will be a big fail if they post 75K and only sell 10K. And, in fact, if they post 75K at $5K+, I think that will suppress demand to the point that I don't even think they will sell 10K. It's just so far out of line with everything else on that pricing grid.
The "average collector" does not have $5K+ to blow on a single coin. Trump fans can get their fill of the exact same coin, in a base metal, for a few bucks. They are not going to spend $5K for $4K worth of Trump gold for the same reason they don't post maximum mintages of 75K for anything at that price point.
People want what they can't have. You are right -- if they limited the mintage to 5K, the website would get slammed, it would sell out in 2 minutes, and they'd go for a nice premium on eBay. Change that mintage to 50K, and all of a sudden people aren't interested, and they don't sell 5K.
It just happened with BOM4. People were all hot and bothered when they thought buyers' clubs would chase them. But that didn't happen, and people who were going to try to grab several suddenly decided the privy mark was distracting, and they could live without another $5K ounce of gold.
Like BOM 4 and 5, they can make 15K, and people who want them will be able to get them at original issue price with no problem. 75K is either a mistake, or very wishful thinking. We'll see. But I think this will be a total bust if they actually release at a 75K maximum mintage.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
Are unsold coins melted? If the market is overly saturated, I can never see this being anything more than a bullion coin.
Rarely. No matter what, if they announce 75K maximum, they won't have nearly that many ATS at launch. They might be hopeful, but they are not stupid.
When something is not a slam dunk sellout, they don't make the maximum mintage up front. That's why things go on back order. Melting inventory that they made for sale costs them a ton between cost of manufacture, cost of melting, lost packaging, etc. It's why unsold inventory remains on the website for years, rather than being pulled and melted.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
Are unsold coins melted? If the market is overly saturated, I can never see this being anything more than a bullion coin.
Yes, that's typically the way the Mint handles it. Unsold product is melted (but sometimes it stays available for sale for quite awhile first) and the final mintage is adujsted for coins sold, not what was actually struck and later melted. With a max mintage of 75,000 I wouldn't think they would strike all 75,000 coins in advance. Probably a smaller number for what they think will sell at the beginning. Then if ordering is strong enough, later buyers will be on backorder waiting for more coins to be struck, up to the 75,000 max. Just a guess.
Will be interesting to see how many the advance buyers will take.
If 75K is really the maximum mintage, ABPP will be taking close to zero. They took far less than their allowance of BOM4 and 5 at a fraction of 75K. I honestly don't know that unsold product is ever melted, given how long things remain in inventory.
I think it's more likely they push it out the back door to dealers at a discount that is still a premium to melt, let alone the discount to melt that they would get from melting. But, in general, other than commemoratives that have to be pulled from sale at year end, most things just stay in inventory indefinitely.
You can, right now, still buy a 2023 uncirculated AGE, a 2021 silver proof set, pretty much all the 2023 silver coins, etc. So just what do you think they melt? And when? I think they sell until they are gone. Or, as I said, push things out the back door.
They also had a clearance sale a few years ago where they offered discounts on distressed inventory. And, of course, we did a nice job cleaning them out of lots precious metal coins during the wild price swings at the end of last year, and of the silver coins ahead of the price increase in the beginning of the year when they were selling stuff at close to, or even a discount to, spot.
@NJCoin said:
Rarely. No matter what, if they announce 75K maximum, they won't have nearly that many ATS at launch. They might be hopeful, but they are not stupid.
When something is not a slam dunk sellout, they don't make the maximum mintage up front.
As has already been pointed out, it is highly likely these can only be struck this year, and since it is a Nov release they probably cannot strike more than the initial amount. The same goes for the fractional buffalo gold. IOW it is one and done (this is because they will be striking 2027 coins in Nov and Dec.).
Also you should be jumping up and down and doing backflips of joy with this mintage as in the past you claimed the mint should mass product everything, and here it is. This should make you very happy.
I remember the Kennedy gold release and thought that was too high and yet they almost did the entire amount. Yes this is also substantially high, but they won't know until the sales happen. I would have thought 50k was a better target amount, but we will see. Either way you should like 75k. Anyone who wants one can buy.
Proof gold eagle mintages are low each year because they are the same design as the previous 40 years of proof gold eagles and very few people collect them by date. Nothing new, nothing special.
This Trump gold coin is a one-year only, and controversial to many, it should certainly do better. Not sure 75,000 coins better, but I'd take the over on 10,000 without question.
I mentioned that unsold would be melted thinking of how the Mint has treated commemoratives. I don't have the legislation for the SemiQ coins in front of me, but it might even say that they can only be sold for one year (I didn't think there was a 12/31/2026 cut off). Not even certain this coin even falls under that law as the Trump dollars did. Probably not. But yes, some other products seem to linger for years until they are quietly wholesaled away. The government has called the Trump Dollar a circulating commemorative on several occasions so I figured this Trump gold coin is more likely to be treated as a USA 250 commemorative, not likely to sit for years if it doesn't sell out. We'll see
For specially issued coins, rather that guessing at a reasonable mintage limit, I wish the mint would establish a policy of limiting the order period (two weeks for example) and then only minting as many coins as necessary to fill all orders. This would give everyone a chance to buy the coin and would save the mint from having to melt all the unsold coins.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
@NJCoin said:
Rarely. No matter what, if they announce 75K maximum, they won't have nearly that many ATS at launch. They might be hopeful, but they are not stupid.
When something is not a slam dunk sellout, they don't make the maximum mintage up front.
As has already been pointed out, it is highly likely these can only be struck this year, and since it is a Nov release they probably cannot strike more than the initial amount. The same goes for the fractional buffalo gold. IOW it is one and done (this is because they will be striking 2027 coins in Nov and Dec.).
Also you should be jumping up and down and doing backflips of joy with this mintage as in the past you claimed the mint should mass product everything, and here it is. This should make you very happy.
I remember the Kennedy gold release and thought that was too high and yet they almost did the entire amount. Yes this is also substantially high, but they won't know until the sales happen. I would have thought 50k was a better target amount, but we will see. Either way you should like 75k. Anyone who wants one can buy.
No. Please don't misquote me. I absolutely do not think they should mass produce everything. I said I thought annual Mint sets should not be flippable, and should be produced to demand and priced reasonably.
As far as everything else goes, no, I don't think they should be creating artificial shortages, as with the Liberty Bells, and then extracting as much money as possible from the shortage they create. What I'm jumping up and down, and doing back flips over, is the public's rejection of $20K per ounce gold from the Mint, regardless of the crazy low mintage.
I am not in the market for a Trump gold coin, so I honestly don't care what they do with it. Based on the price on the grid, I thought the quantity offered would be similar to the gold buffalo.
This is not 10 or 20 years ago, based either on gold spot or on the premiums they now charge for numismatic gold. If they want to keep the premiums high, they need to try to match the mintage to demand. Not to over produce, as they seemingly intend to do with these, or under produce, creating website lotteries and instant risk free profits for the lucky lottery winners. What they did with BOM 4 and 5 was just right.
Doesn't matter how many years they do or don't strike these in, they are not going to sell anywhere near 75K, 50K, 25K, etc. at a $1,000+ premium to spot gold. Not if they all have the same date.
More power to them if they think announcing a maximum mintage of 75K will help them sell them. because the mintage could just as easily have been 15K, and they'd likely sell exactly the same amount, if not more. Because I think a stupid high maximum mintage will do nothing but suppress demand for anything they want to sell at such a high premium. One year or not. Controversial or not.
Tens of millions of Trump souvenir coins, for anyone interested. No reason for anyone to sink $5K into a coin with $4K worth of precious metal, with a maximum mintage of 75K, just to see the current president snarling at them.
@HalfDime said:
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Yeah, I'm not buying gold coins until spot is back down to $35 per ounce.
That’s a straw man argument. That is many orders of magnitude lower. And the spike in spot is a recent phenomenon based on speculation and geopolitical uncertainty. Caveat emptor.
No, it's not.
I neither agree nor disagree with the gold market analysis. My point, though sarcastic, was simply that today's price is today's price. If you asked in 2014 how many people would pay $3000 for a 1 oz eagle, the affirmative response would be fairly low. The Mint can't price based on either the 2014 price or your speculation on the 2027 price. And given the fact that there is no shortage of buyers of gold at $4300 right now, the current price is the current correct price. (Premiums aside.)
I doubt they will sell 75,000 of these, but not because of the underlying price of gold. It's simply that none of these issues show that kind of demand, including things like the (much cheaper) spouse coins and even the BOM coins.
I would guess they won't strike 75,000 initially. But there is no reason to not have a mintage limit higher than the expected number of sales.
I never said the pricing should be based on 2014 data. To the contrary, my initial post that you quoted at the beginning of the exchange stated “Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario [2014] as comparable is deeply misguided.” You are arguing with yourself. Bringing up pricing from the 1970s is far fetched. That was my point.
I do disagree with your analysis and those arguing the same percentage mark up are missing the point. Assuming this trades at bullion as most precious metal commemoratives, the total amount of loss matters.
Imagine a 20% loss on four different coins. Which risk are collectors more likely to take?
Coin A $2 coin (like the Trump Dollar)
Coin B $1000 coin (like the Gold Kennedy coins) (rounded down to make the math easier)
Coin C $4,500 coin (Trump gold $250)
A 20% loss would be:
Coin A -$0.40; few will bat an eye
Coin B - $200; perhaps manageable to a decent share
Coin C - $900
Yes other gold coins have sold, but are the sales numbers of the other coins comparable to commemoratives and other bullion coins from the recent past (2010-2024)?
@NJCoin said:
More power to them if they think announcing a maximum mintage of 75K will help them sell them. because the mintage could just as easily have been 15K, and they'd likely sell exactly the same amount, if not more.
We will see if your crystal ball is working, since you are comparing these to the BOM coins, and suggesting anything over 15k will not sell.
@jmlanzaf said:
Sure. But anyone who buys a gold commemorative AS bullion is doing themselves a disservice. They aren't bullion.
The after market treats most of them as bullion. What numismatic value does it have? It has a huge mintage that will likely exceed demand and almost all of them will be preserved in pristine condition. If you’re looking for a good numismatic investment, it is hard not to hate this one.
@NJCoin said:
More power to them if they think announcing a maximum mintage of 75K will help them sell them. because the mintage could just as easily have been 15K, and they'd likely sell exactly the same amount, if not more.
We will see if your crystal ball is working, since you are comparing these to the BOM coins, and suggesting anything over 15k will not sell.
Correct. Not just BOM, but also proof gold eagles and buffaloes.
15K seems to be the sweet spot for proof gold at this price point. I actually think 75K will suppress demand, and they won't even get to 15K. Not to mention, there is a constituency that won't touch it due to its controversial nature, while many of those who would be attracted won't be able to afford the price, and likely got their fill with the base metal versions.
Believe it or not, I think the mintage is so out there that I'm still not convinced it's not a mistake. You guys are acting like it's a $200 silver coin rather than a $5,000 gold one.
@NJCoin said:
More power to them if they think announcing a maximum mintage of 75K will help them sell them. because the mintage could just as easily have been 15K, and they'd likely sell exactly the same amount, if not more.
We will see if your crystal ball is working, since you are comparing these to the BOM coins, and suggesting anything over 15k will not sell.
Correct. Not just BOM, but also proof gold eagles and buffaloes.
15K seems to be the sweet spot for proof gold at this price point. I actually think 75K will suppress demand, and they won't even get to 15K. Not to mention, there is a constituency that won't touch it due to its controversial nature, while many of those who would be attracted won't be able to afford the price, and likely got their fill with the base metal versions.
Believe it or not, I think the mintage is so out there that I'm still not convinced it's not a mistake. You guys are acting like it's a $200 silver coin rather than a $5,000 gold one.
You're acting like setting the mintage at 75,000 means you have to make 75,000.
For the record, it is the only $250 US coin. It will have interest for that reason, as well.
So what if they only make and sell 15k?
No, I'm not. I'm acting like a maximum mintage of 75K means there will be up to 75K hanging over the market. Which will suppress demand. Which might actually create a low mintage item when all is said and done, but which will absolutely kill sales in the short and intermediate term.
If they "only make and sell 15K," it will have the same long term value as any other one ounce gold proof coin with a similar mintage. Bullion, as you proudly say in other threads. In the meantime, they won't even sell 15K if they say they will go as high as 75K.
Again, it really just feels like a mistake, given how out of line it is with every other similar product. They are acting like it's 2016, and that they will be selling them for $1,500 each.
There is no world in which they could sell 75K of anything in 2026 at a $1,000 premium to intrinsic value, let alone a $250 gold Trump coin. And they know it. The only mystery is why they would pretend otherwise. Which is why I still think it could be a mistake.
@NJCoin said:
No, I'm not. I'm acting like a maximum mintage of 75K means there will be up to 75K hanging over the market. Which will suppress demand. Which might actually create a low mintage item when all is said and done, but which will absolutely kill sales in the short and intermediate term.
If they "only make and sell 15K," it will have the same long term value as any other one ounce gold proof coin with a similar mintage. Bullion, as you proudly say in other threads. In the meantime, they won't even sell 15K if they say they will go as high as 75K.
Again, it really just feels like a mistake, given how out of line it is with every other similar product. They are acting like it's 2016, and that they will be selling them for $1,500 each.
What happens if they throw some privy coins in with this, will you backtrack?
@NJCoin said:
No, I'm not. I'm acting like a maximum mintage of 75K means there will be up to 75K hanging over the market. Which will suppress demand. Which might actually create a low mintage item when all is said and done, but which will absolutely kill sales in the short and intermediate term.
If they "only make and sell 15K," it will have the same long term value as any other one ounce gold proof coin with a similar mintage. Bullion, as you proudly say in other threads. In the meantime, they won't even sell 15K if they say they will go as high as 75K.
Again, it really just feels like a mistake, given how out of line it is with every other similar product. They are acting like it's 2016, and that they will be selling them for $1,500 each.
What happens if they throw some privy coins in with this, will you backtrack?
Yes, I will. But I also think, with that mintage and that price, it will still be a tough sell.
The last time they did that, the price was $100, not $5,000. And the mintage turned out to be 50K, not 75K.
Those privy medals now go for around $2500 raw, and around $4500 in MS70. So, throwing a $1,000 premium, on top of $4,000 in gold, at something with a mintage of 50-75K, to take a one in whatever shot at getting a privy is a very different gamble from the last time they did it, when the premium was $70 on $30 silver.
But, you raise a good point, and a privy lottery could very well be what they have planned for these if 75K is not a mistake. A very cynical way for Hollis to take the Mint into the VB space.
Because, the last time, the pricing and mintage was not out of line with other products, and the privy was just an unexpected bonus. This time, if they do it, the mintage will be way out of line with the pricing, and the privy will be a gimmick to goose sales. As with the dollar bags and rolls, albeit at a much lower price point.
EDIT: The more I think about it, the more I think you might be onto something. Total repeat of two years ago. 1776 privies. 75K announced maximum mintage.
A short run of something less than that. Maybe 50K, like last time, with ABPP getting privies based what they actually make, rather than the announced mintage.
A sellout as people chase lottery tickets. And then, unlike two years ago, massive returns, since $5,000 gold coins without privies will be too expensive to hold as compared to $100 silver medals, that did turn out to hold their value. Plus, the buyers clubs will be chasing the privies along with everyone else. With instructions to return, just like the gold Liberty Bells, when the scratch off turns out to be a loser.
It will be huge mistake if they do this, but they very well might. It absolutely would explain a 75K maximum mintage. And, if the Mint learned nothing from gold Liberty Bells and tries this, they will get exactly what they deserve.
A privy lottery on these would be a mistake -- how many would order multiples (after HHL removed, or using friends and family addresses) and just return the non-privy coin(s)
@DotStore said:
A privy lottery on these would be a mistake -- how many would order multiples (after HHL removed, or using friends and family addresses) and just return the non-privy coin(s)
A lot. And the Mint will deserve exactly what it gets if it goes that route. And, it would be even better if the Mint front loads privies for the Big Boys, and then places most other people on back order.
Cluster you know what all the way around, creating windfalls for Big Boys and bad will for everyone else. Will serve everyone who plays right if the Mint chooses to play games like that. And, in that case, shame on anyone who enables it by paying Big Boys big premiums for privy marks.
@NJCoin said:
No, I'm not. I'm acting like a maximum mintage of 75K means there will be up to 75K hanging over the market. Which will suppress demand. Which might actually create a low mintage item when all is said and done, but which will absolutely kill sales in the short and intermediate term.
If they "only make and sell 15K," it will have the same long term value as any other one ounce gold proof coin with a similar mintage. Bullion, as you proudly say in other threads. In the meantime, they won't even sell 15K if they say they will go as high as 75K.
Again, it really just feels like a mistake, given how out of line it is with every other similar product. They are acting like it's 2016, and that they will be selling them for $1,500 each.
What happens if they throw some privy coins in with this, will you backtrack?
NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN until they eliminate returns
Don't say that. You'd think they would have known better than to do what they did with the gold Liberty Bells. But they did not.
I hate to go all in with @HalfDime, but it makes a ton of sense. Unless it's a mistake. Just throwing 75K out there for no reason at all, as an aspirational limit to suppress sales, is what makes no sense.
Privies, given how privy crazy they have been all year, and given how well they worked in 2024, make a ton of sense. As I said before, what they are missing, likely because they just haven't thought things through, is how a privy lottery on an otherwise very overpriced, very over produced gold coin, will end up more like the gold Liberty Bell fiasco than the successful, although very unfair, 2024 flowing hair silver medal privy lottery.
Just don't give them more credit than they deserve with respect to buyers clubs, overpriced overproduced Trump gold, and returns.
@Odin said:
I was hoping for a mintage of 4,547. With the mintage at 75,000 PDJT could buy all he needs for handing out as his new challenge coin.
I thought the point of this coin was the semiquincentennial. Minting 4547 would be overtly political.
You are correct. Let's go with 25,000, a number that should meet demand, maybe even sell out, keepi in line with the 25,000 theme, and maybe even account for a 75,000 typo.
Comments
Nothing in the store at this point.
ats: 0
Again, that mintage is so far out of line for anything selling at $5,200 if priced according to the grid today that it almost certainly has to be a mistake. TBD.
At that mintage and that price, it's hard to see interest even if they mix in a few privies, but I guess anything is possible with them nowadays. My money is on the mintage being a mistake, given that the only numismatic gold that ever had a mintage like that was the 2009 UHR St. Gaudens, and the early proof gold eagles that were novelties at the time and sold for a tiny fraction of today's prices, and a tiny premium to spot as compared to today.
Similar mintage as the gold Kennedy. Similar premium too. Those sold out. I can’t see this selling out at that mintage though.
Yes, the total mintage for the 2014-W 50th Anniversary Gold Kennedy Half Dollar is 73,772 coins, following an authorized maximum mintage ceiling of 75,000.
The mint must be copying that one.
Or hubris. 99% of the stuff they turn out these days is total junk. Also remember the people authorizing these are the same ones that found the Presidential Seal and Trump's face to be "emblematic of the United States Semiquincentennial" so as to authorize the companion $1 base metal piece. Politics aside, they are out of touch with reality IMHO. I do not think it is a typo.
The gold Kennedy half dollars were first released on August 5, 2014. Spot closed at $1,292.75 per troy ounce of gold that day. Spot is being reported by Kitco, as this post is made, with a value of $4,157.70 per troy ounce. A 3.2x spike in spot is massive. Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario as comparable is deeply misguided.
Well, As Lloyd said..
That’s a straw man argument. That is many orders of magnitude lower. And the spike in spot is a recent phenomenon based on speculation and geopolitical uncertainty. Caveat emptor.
Not to mention, the original issue price of that was $1240. A $270 premium to intrinsic value.
It's just a different world today, and the Mint knows it, based on the premiums they charge today and the resulting sales volumes. They can't sell 15K 1804 gold BOMs. What makes them think there will be a market for 75K of these at similar pricing?
I think The Donald should stamp out 50 Trillion of his bucks, after costs that could zero national debt.
At 75k made these 24k will linger for years till gold drops or spikes with a heads up to buy before price increases. Like what happened with silver last year. I got alot of $90 an ounce ASE $ Morgan & Peace before markup doubled.
Same percentage premium. Of course it’s going to be a higher numerical premium when gold is up.
Correct. The only problem is that the market does not support it. Which is why volumes are way down, and why classic gold generics now sell for spot, or just slightly above, when it commanded significant premiums when spot was a lot lower.
With respect to moderns, the "same percentage premium" is just obnoxious. Because, if the Mint needs a $100 premium to profitably manufacture 30K silver proof eagles, it does not need $1,000 to turn a profit making a similar coin in gold.
It's why the Mint has turned off a lot of former collectors. I don't have enough inputs to knowledgeably run the numbers, but it wouldn't shock me if someone told me that the Mint actually makes less profit at the current premiums than it did selling more volume at a lower gross profit per coin. Across the board. They surely got a windfall selling the uncirculated and proof sets at such high margins, but the novelty of the cents will soon wear off, and then they'll be back to just ripping people off and not moving nearly as much metal as they could and should.
I can get 24k coin for $100 over spot and sell for $100 less than spot.
Are people stacking gold for metal or do they eat an additional 20% premium for design mark ups ?
Cause when you go to sell locally you get 98% of spot for your advance release and pretty siggy gold and bison labels too.
Local dealers never pay numismatic premiums and sellers/heirs sell for cash.
Are you stacking gold or fancy art ?
What the heck do you mean the market doesn't support the premiums??? This year's proof gold buffalo sold out quick, so did the enhanced 1 oz. gold eagle. Similar premiums and the market obviously supported them and then some as each sells for a premium above the original issue price today and that's with gold down significantly since they were sold.
Sure, those were much lower max mintages, but is that even relevant?
If this Trump gold one ounce coin had a max mintage of 5,000 to 10,000, it would likely sell out instantly and go for premiums in the secondary market.
With a max mintage of 75,000 it gives the average collector a better shot to get one if they want one. I'd rather the Mint just say unlimited for max mintage and sell them through the end of the year, than to just pick a large max number.
Remember, if they only end up selling 10,000 or so of the 75,000 authorized, that doesn't mean the coin is a failure or the Mint did a bad job. Just means everyone that wanted one at the Mint price was able to get one. I think more will sell than that though.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
Are unsold coins melted? If the market is overly saturated, I can never see this being anything more than a bullion coin.
Yes, that's typically the way the Mint handles it. Unsold product is melted (but sometimes it stays available for sale for quite awhile first) and the final mintage is adujsted for coins sold, not what was actually struck and later melted. With a max mintage of 75,000 I wouldn't think they would strike all 75,000 coins in advance. Probably a smaller number for what they think will sell at the beginning. Then if ordering is strong enough, later buyers will be on backorder waiting for more coins to be struck, up to the 75,000 max. Just a guess.
Will be interesting to see how many the advance buyers will take.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
2026 dated means they can only strike them up to 12/31
there's no way this sells 75,000 by the
this probably sells 5,000 total
I mean the market doesn't support it because sales are far lower than they used to be, at lower prices and lower premiums.
Part of the that drop off is due to the spot price, but part is also the premium. How do I know this? Because premiums for gem generic classic gold have collapsed. The quantity is fixed, and lack of demand drove premiums down towards zero as spot turned a $2K coin with $1K worth of gold into a $4K coin with $4K worth of gold.
That is the best proxy we have for the premium for numismatic gold. It's why the Mint used to sell tens of thousands of proof one ounce gold coins, and now 7500-15K is about all they can sell.
Sure, they'll always sell something at any price. They even sold some $20K gold Liberty Bells. But the market does not support $1K premiums for modern numismatic gold, which is why the mintages are anemic. Not because there are less than 20K people in the world with an interest in numismatic gold coins.
As a result, I still think 75K is a mistake. 10K is 10K, and it's not nothing. It's around what I think they can sell.
But it will be a big fail if they post 75K and only sell 10K. And, in fact, if they post 75K at $5K+, I think that will suppress demand to the point that I don't even think they will sell 10K. It's just so far out of line with everything else on that pricing grid.
The "average collector" does not have $5K+ to blow on a single coin. Trump fans can get their fill of the exact same coin, in a base metal, for a few bucks. They are not going to spend $5K for $4K worth of Trump gold for the same reason they don't post maximum mintages of 75K for anything at that price point.
People want what they can't have. You are right -- if they limited the mintage to 5K, the website would get slammed, it would sell out in 2 minutes, and they'd go for a nice premium on eBay. Change that mintage to 50K, and all of a sudden people aren't interested, and they don't sell 5K.
It just happened with BOM4. People were all hot and bothered when they thought buyers' clubs would chase them. But that didn't happen, and people who were going to try to grab several suddenly decided the privy mark was distracting, and they could live without another $5K ounce of gold.
Like BOM 4 and 5, they can make 15K, and people who want them will be able to get them at original issue price with no problem. 75K is either a mistake, or very wishful thinking. We'll see. But I think this will be a total bust if they actually release at a 75K maximum mintage.
Rarely. No matter what, if they announce 75K maximum, they won't have nearly that many ATS at launch. They might be hopeful, but they are not stupid.
When something is not a slam dunk sellout, they don't make the maximum mintage up front. That's why things go on back order. Melting inventory that they made for sale costs them a ton between cost of manufacture, cost of melting, lost packaging, etc. It's why unsold inventory remains on the website for years, rather than being pulled and melted.
If 75K is really the maximum mintage, ABPP will be taking close to zero. They took far less than their allowance of BOM4 and 5 at a fraction of 75K. I honestly don't know that unsold product is ever melted, given how long things remain in inventory.
I think it's more likely they push it out the back door to dealers at a discount that is still a premium to melt, let alone the discount to melt that they would get from melting. But, in general, other than commemoratives that have to be pulled from sale at year end, most things just stay in inventory indefinitely.
You can, right now, still buy a 2023 uncirculated AGE, a 2021 silver proof set, pretty much all the 2023 silver coins, etc. So just what do you think they melt? And when? I think they sell until they are gone. Or, as I said, push things out the back door.
They also had a clearance sale a few years ago where they offered discounts on distressed inventory. And, of course, we did a nice job cleaning them out of lots precious metal coins during the wild price swings at the end of last year, and of the silver coins ahead of the price increase in the beginning of the year when they were selling stuff at close to, or even a discount to, spot.
As has already been pointed out, it is highly likely these can only be struck this year, and since it is a Nov release they probably cannot strike more than the initial amount. The same goes for the fractional buffalo gold. IOW it is one and done (this is because they will be striking 2027 coins in Nov and Dec.).
Also you should be jumping up and down and doing backflips of joy with this mintage as in the past you claimed the mint should mass product everything, and here it is. This should make you very happy.
I remember the Kennedy gold release and thought that was too high and yet they almost did the entire amount. Yes this is also substantially high, but they won't know until the sales happen. I would have thought 50k was a better target amount, but we will see. Either way you should like 75k. Anyone who wants one can buy.
Proof gold eagle mintages are low each year because they are the same design as the previous 40 years of proof gold eagles and very few people collect them by date. Nothing new, nothing special.
This Trump gold coin is a one-year only, and controversial to many, it should certainly do better. Not sure 75,000 coins better, but I'd take the over on 10,000 without question.
I mentioned that unsold would be melted thinking of how the Mint has treated commemoratives. I don't have the legislation for the SemiQ coins in front of me, but it might even say that they can only be sold for one year (I didn't think there was a 12/31/2026 cut off). Not even certain this coin even falls under that law as the Trump dollars did. Probably not. But yes, some other products seem to linger for years until they are quietly wholesaled away. The government has called the Trump Dollar a circulating commemorative on several occasions so I figured this Trump gold coin is more likely to be treated as a USA 250 commemorative, not likely to sit for years if it doesn't sell out. We'll see
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
For specially issued coins, rather that guessing at a reasonable mintage limit, I wish the mint would establish a policy of limiting the order period (two weeks for example) and then only minting as many coins as necessary to fill all orders. This would give everyone a chance to buy the coin and would save the mint from having to melt all the unsold coins.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
On the topic of Trump coins, check this out!
https://minterrornews.com/discoveries-10-7-26-error-on-new-trump-dollar.html
What is this mystery half you are referring too? The clash error?
I think it turned out to be the 9/11 privy.
No. Please don't misquote me. I absolutely do not think they should mass produce everything. I said I thought annual Mint sets should not be flippable, and should be produced to demand and priced reasonably.
As far as everything else goes, no, I don't think they should be creating artificial shortages, as with the Liberty Bells, and then extracting as much money as possible from the shortage they create. What I'm jumping up and down, and doing back flips over, is the public's rejection of $20K per ounce gold from the Mint, regardless of the crazy low mintage.
I am not in the market for a Trump gold coin, so I honestly don't care what they do with it. Based on the price on the grid, I thought the quantity offered would be similar to the gold buffalo.
This is not 10 or 20 years ago, based either on gold spot or on the premiums they now charge for numismatic gold. If they want to keep the premiums high, they need to try to match the mintage to demand. Not to over produce, as they seemingly intend to do with these, or under produce, creating website lotteries and instant risk free profits for the lucky lottery winners. What they did with BOM 4 and 5 was just right.
Doesn't matter how many years they do or don't strike these in, they are not going to sell anywhere near 75K, 50K, 25K, etc. at a $1,000+ premium to spot gold. Not if they all have the same date.
More power to them if they think announcing a maximum mintage of 75K will help them sell them. because the mintage could just as easily have been 15K, and they'd likely sell exactly the same amount, if not more. Because I think a stupid high maximum mintage will do nothing but suppress demand for anything they want to sell at such a high premium. One year or not. Controversial or not.
Tens of millions of Trump souvenir coins, for anyone interested. No reason for anyone to sink $5K into a coin with $4K worth of precious metal, with a maximum mintage of 75K, just to see the current president snarling at them.
I never said the pricing should be based on 2014 data. To the contrary, my initial post that you quoted at the beginning of the exchange stated “Whoever at the Mint that views that scenario [2014] as comparable is deeply misguided.” You are arguing with yourself. Bringing up pricing from the 1970s is far fetched. That was my point.
I do disagree with your analysis and those arguing the same percentage mark up are missing the point. Assuming this trades at bullion as most precious metal commemoratives, the total amount of loss matters.
Imagine a 20% loss on four different coins. Which risk are collectors more likely to take?
Coin A $2 coin (like the Trump Dollar)
Coin B $1000 coin (like the Gold Kennedy coins) (rounded down to make the math easier)
Coin C $4,500 coin (Trump gold $250)
A 20% loss would be:
Coin A -$0.40; few will bat an eye
Coin B - $200; perhaps manageable to a decent share
Coin C - $900
Yes other gold coins have sold, but are the sales numbers of the other coins comparable to commemoratives and other bullion coins from the recent past (2010-2024)?
We will see if your crystal ball is working, since you are comparing these to the BOM coins, and suggesting anything over 15k will not sell.
The after market treats most of them as bullion. What numismatic value does it have? It has a huge mintage that will likely exceed demand and almost all of them will be preserved in pristine condition. If you’re looking for a good numismatic investment, it is hard not to hate this one.
Correct. Not just BOM, but also proof gold eagles and buffaloes.
15K seems to be the sweet spot for proof gold at this price point. I actually think 75K will suppress demand, and they won't even get to 15K. Not to mention, there is a constituency that won't touch it due to its controversial nature, while many of those who would be attracted won't be able to afford the price, and likely got their fill with the base metal versions.
Believe it or not, I think the mintage is so out there that I'm still not convinced it's not a mistake. You guys are acting like it's a $200 silver coin rather than a $5,000 gold one.
Only $250 US coin, other than the overpriced liberty bell
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
No, I'm not. I'm acting like a maximum mintage of 75K means there will be up to 75K hanging over the market. Which will suppress demand. Which might actually create a low mintage item when all is said and done, but which will absolutely kill sales in the short and intermediate term.
If they "only make and sell 15K," it will have the same long term value as any other one ounce gold proof coin with a similar mintage. Bullion, as you proudly say in other threads. In the meantime, they won't even sell 15K if they say they will go as high as 75K.
Again, it really just feels like a mistake, given how out of line it is with every other similar product. They are acting like it's 2016, and that they will be selling them for $1,500 each.
There is no world in which they could sell 75K of anything in 2026 at a $1,000 premium to intrinsic value, let alone a $250 gold Trump coin. And they know it. The only mystery is why they would pretend otherwise. Which is why I still think it could be a mistake.
What happens if they throw some privy coins in with this, will you backtrack?
Yes, I will. But I also think, with that mintage and that price, it will still be a tough sell.
The last time they did that, the price was $100, not $5,000. And the mintage turned out to be 50K, not 75K.
Those privy medals now go for around $2500 raw, and around $4500 in MS70. So, throwing a $1,000 premium, on top of $4,000 in gold, at something with a mintage of 50-75K, to take a one in whatever shot at getting a privy is a very different gamble from the last time they did it, when the premium was $70 on $30 silver.
But, you raise a good point, and a privy lottery could very well be what they have planned for these if 75K is not a mistake. A very cynical way for Hollis to take the Mint into the VB space.
Because, the last time, the pricing and mintage was not out of line with other products, and the privy was just an unexpected bonus. This time, if they do it, the mintage will be way out of line with the pricing, and the privy will be a gimmick to goose sales. As with the dollar bags and rolls, albeit at a much lower price point.
EDIT: The more I think about it, the more I think you might be onto something. Total repeat of two years ago. 1776 privies. 75K announced maximum mintage.
A short run of something less than that. Maybe 50K, like last time, with ABPP getting privies based what they actually make, rather than the announced mintage.
A sellout as people chase lottery tickets. And then, unlike two years ago, massive returns, since $5,000 gold coins without privies will be too expensive to hold as compared to $100 silver medals, that did turn out to hold their value. Plus, the buyers clubs will be chasing the privies along with everyone else. With instructions to return, just like the gold Liberty Bells, when the scratch off turns out to be a loser.
It will be huge mistake if they do this, but they very well might. It absolutely would explain a 75K maximum mintage. And, if the Mint learned nothing from gold Liberty Bells and tries this, they will get exactly what they deserve.
A privy lottery on these would be a mistake -- how many would order multiples (after HHL removed, or using friends and family addresses) and just return the non-privy coin(s)
A lot. And the Mint will deserve exactly what it gets if it goes that route. And, it would be even better if the Mint front loads privies for the Big Boys, and then places most other people on back order.
Cluster you know what all the way around, creating windfalls for Big Boys and bad will for everyone else. Will serve everyone who plays right if the Mint chooses to play games like that. And, in that case, shame on anyone who enables it by paying Big Boys big premiums for privy marks.
Don't say that. You'd think they would have known better than to do what they did with the gold Liberty Bells. But they did not.
I hate to go all in with @HalfDime, but it makes a ton of sense. Unless it's a mistake. Just throwing 75K out there for no reason at all, as an aspirational limit to suppress sales, is what makes no sense.
Privies, given how privy crazy they have been all year, and given how well they worked in 2024, make a ton of sense. As I said before, what they are missing, likely because they just haven't thought things through, is how a privy lottery on an otherwise very overpriced, very over produced gold coin, will end up more like the gold Liberty Bell fiasco than the successful, although very unfair, 2024 flowing hair silver medal privy lottery.
Just don't give them more credit than they deserve with respect to buyers clubs, overpriced overproduced Trump gold, and returns.
I was hoping for a mintage of 4,547. With the mintage at 75,000 PDJT could buy all he needs for handing out as his new challenge coin.
I thought the point of this coin was the semiquincentennial. Minting 4547 would be overtly political.
You are correct. Let's go with 25,000, a number that should meet demand, maybe even sell out, keepi in line with the 25,000 theme, and maybe even account for a 75,000 typo.
I plan on cornering the market in dreck