If you bet enough games you will get run over eventually
Whenever I come off a break, or when being selective, my bankroll usually advances. However the "problem" is when I get hot, I get cocky and begin playing too many marginal games, that I think since I'm hot, I'll win the games anyway. Even in the moment, I realize what I'm doing isn't disciplined, but I'm in heat, and foolishly do it anyway.
It's interesting because I have no problem staying disciplined in business, stock market, collectibles flipping and investing, and even poker. Even in my personal habits such as a very healthy diet, I manage to stay disciplined. But sports betting, I think I'm getting better at it, but still not at the discipline level I need to be.
I probably should just quit trying, but I like sports too much, and like the challenge of trying to beat the bookie's computer.
IMO you have done yourself really good with it, meaning I think you started with a low number bankroll -$300-$500?
Your wagers are typically low risk with some reward, and plugging along like you have and taken a break then jumping back in the same way I'd say your doing just fine
It's all about discipline in regards to losing what you can afford, I don't know your financial situation but I'd be willing to bet you could dust that $500 bankroll and it wouldn't mean a thing really.
Sports betting is not to be taken lightly because any one of us can let the wheels fall off and chase losses into a bad weekend, come Monday AM it's like what the heck did I just do???
We want to avoid that lol
I've blown through my entire expendable money in a weekend a few times and it sucks but that's where discipline comes in, not once did I dig into savings to push my luck to recoup losses, I punish myself by not betting until I get paid and reload the expendable income then go back to battle.
Have fun, and don't stress about having fun with Expendable income
Paul - as always you make excellent points. Yes, things are going very well, no complaints at all.
If I do quit as mentioned, it won't be from losing too much money. It would only be from finally figuring it can't be beat. At least not by me. Then I'll simply bow-out, and just continue on as a sports fan, and of course enjoy our great hobby. 😊
Late in the 4th quarter last night I knew with absolute certainty that Pittsburgh was going to get that TD one way or another and almost as sure they would get the 2 point conversion for the typical "Made for TV" special late 4th quarter tie , of course I was right.
I was so happy it didn't go to OT, I wanted to win my bet and I knew you bought the smart man who has been around hook with Pittsburgh and as much as I wanted to win I didn't want Cleveland to win by a TD in OT because of your 3.1/2 line, I'm so pumped it worked out for both of us!!!
best possible scenario, based on what i'm seeing. you win, blue wins, i win (for now lol)
whenever i maneuver lines i always try to cover key numbers, if possible. last night it worked like a charm. no better feeling than winning by the hook.
you were all over Cleveland -- here and in pick'em
This strikes me as funny. I can't think of any sane reason to cash-out a NO SWEAT bet, and thus lose the promotion?
Please correct me if I missed something.
The cash out on the no sweat will give you "Cash" that is yours to do with, if you lose you get the "free" bet amount to BET and you get the winnings if it wins, you never get the literal cash bet amount back in your pocket jist the winnings
So if your hurting for money and place a no sweat $100 bet, you might cash out at say $50.if it's losing because the guaranteed $50.in your pocket might benefit you more than a free $100 bet that might lose
This strikes me as funny. I can't think of any sane reason to cash-out a NO SWEAT bet, and thus lose the promotion?
Please correct me if I missed something.
The cash out on the no sweat will give you "Cash" that is yours to do with, if you lose you get the "free" bet amount to BET and you get the winnings if it wins, you never get the literal cash bet amount back in your pocket jist the winnings
So if your hurting for money and place a no sweat $100 bet, you might cash out at say $50.if it's losing because the guaranteed $50.in your pocket might benefit you more than a free $100 bet that might lose
I'm not precisely sure what is the cash-out juice. But it's at least 10% probably more. I'm not adverse to cashing-out, and I think it can be used wisely in certain situations depending on the flow of the game.
Understood about the cancellation, and not receiving back the original wager on a no sweat bet, even if the second bet wins. That being said, on say a 50% equity cash-out, I believe that with a no sweat bet, it's better to let the wager run its course. I mean if the book is offering 50% equity, it means you still have a decent chance of winning the bet. And if it doesn't win, then you do get to wager the original bet amount, in the hope of winning back the lost money and possibly making an overall profit.
I have received maybe around five no sweat bet offers, and of course used them all. Sometimes the second bet won, and sometimes it lost. Bottom line - I do strongly feel that cashing-out a no sweat bet, places the odds horribly in the bookie's favor, and in the long run is detrimental.
Oh well, another big weekend coming up, with some interesting possibilities I'm already seeing. The Penn State game tonight, with them coming off an unexpected loss, intrigues me. Not sure yet which way I'm gonna play it. But I've got a 50% boost, so the money is going in on something, even if I have to flip a coin.
As the phrase goes:"Let it ride". Will invest my Thursday parlay winnings into 3 parlays for sunday.1)Over Colts game 47,Over Dallas game 48,Over Jax game 51.5.
2)Over GB game 39,Bills ML,Ravens ML,Minn ML.
3)Over Rams game 43.5,Over Atl game 47.5,Over Detroit game 51.
Some high, challenging, over scores to attain.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
The good news - Virginia Tech misses a chip shot field goal at the end of the game.
The bad news - I promised to not use profanity and stay away from wild women for 24 hours, if Virginia Tech misses the field goal. Never thought I'd have to abide by that. 😂😂😂😂😂
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
As the phrase goes:"Let it ride". Will invest my Thursday parlay winnings into 3 parlays for sunday.1)Over Colts game 47,Over Dallas game 48,Over Jax game 51.5.
2)Over GB game 39,Bills ML,Ravens ML,Minn ML.
3)Over Rams game 43.5,Over Atl game 47.5,Over Detroit game 51.
Some high, challenging, over scores to attain.
All $5 bet amounts.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
1-1 in the other games, for a slight profit for the day. Would have been 3-3 if the Cardinals could have just punched it in, 3rd and goal at the Giants 4, for the win, with around ten seconds left. On 4th down the dam QB throws a pick-6 which considering the game was lost for me with an incompletion, I couldn't care less about it.
Nothing jumping out at me the rest of the day. The Chiefs may have a little value at that line, but not enough for a wager in my view.
They're betting the Braves right in the game tonight. But I think MLB has already punished me enough for the season. So I'll pass. It's a choice between going to the local Medieval torture chamber service, and laying on the rack for a few hours, or playing the game. I'm choosing the rack, it's less painful.
Like most sportsbooks, betMGM has a free game to entice you to log in daily. They require you to log in Monday through Friday, and reach day they will randomly assign you an NFL team to cover the point spread. You can then win various prizes depending on 1 to 5 correct selections. I don't really even pay attention to who I have. I just log in on Mondays and see what I've won. Again, it's entirely luck.
Well, today, I log in and find out I've won a share of the $50,000 bonus bet prize pool for having all 5 correct selections.
.
.
I was surprised that the split was so high, as I was expecting perhaps $50, at most. Instead, I received a $300 bonus bet.
.
.
Made some good calls with my FanDuel profit boosts this week, also. Hit on my 30% boost, 50% boost, and 100% boost.
.
.
Makes up for getting clipped last week on the Seahawks.
.
.
Still kicking Circa's ass, though, at a 75% win rate. That big loss on the Seahawks did drop my ROI significantly.
.
Especially with Polymarket and Kalshi now in the mix, the books are beating each other up out there with promotions.
I've never owned any DraftKings stock. But I follow it. DK was at $53 a share around a year and a half ago, closing at $18 today. This at a time when the stock market has reached record highs. I wouldn't expect DK to lay down like a dog and watch their stock price continue to fall. So they're doing what they can to keep and attract customers. This competition of course is good for the consumer.
I'm not saying their product is good. It's gambling and we all understand this. That being said, if a sports bettor looking to make money, can't make a profit in this climate with all the free goodies being offered, milking the promotions, etc, perhaps they should think about doing something else?
I agree with ya that's a nice bonus bet award, and I think a good illustration of my previous post.
If playing random games, trying to pick winners against the spread, the odds of hitting all 5 is around 3%. So if I'm doing the math right, with the 50k prize pool, and a $300 award, it means around 167 players hit it.
Way to go milking those offers, and also good handicapping on your part!
@countdouglas said:
Like most sportsbooks, betMGM has a free game to entice you to log in daily. They require you to log in Monday through Friday, and reach day they will randomly assign you an NFL team to cover the point spread. You can then win various prizes depending on 1 to 5 correct selections. I don't really even pay attention to who I have. I just log in on Mondays and see what I've won. Again, it's entirely luck.
Well, today, I log in and find out I've won a share of the $50,000 bonus bet prize pool for having all 5 correct selections.
.
.
I was surprised that the split was so high, as I was expecting perhaps $50, at most. Instead, I received a $300 bonus bet.
.
.
Made some good calls with my FanDuel profit boosts this week, also. Hit on my 30% boost, 50% boost, and 100% boost.
.
.
Makes up for getting clipped last week on the Seahawks.
.
.
Still kicking Circa's ass, though, at a 75% win rate. That big loss on the Seahawks did drop my ROI significantly.
.
Major respect for smashing the Pats, nobody had that
Played two props. Already caught the receiving prop, so there's a decent profit for the night even without a successful review. Gotta like that at least I've got a shot at getting my money back.
With the Saints behind now by 21 points, I'd have to think that they're just gonna keep him in the locker room. No sense bringing him back out in a hopeless cause.
Well so much for "logic" trying to figure out the mind of an NFL head coach. Kamara got back in the game and scored his second TD. But I still need 7 yards to hit the dam prop.
@countdouglas said:
Like most sportsbooks, betMGM has a free game to entice you to log in daily. They require you to log in Monday through Friday, and reach day they will randomly assign you an NFL team to cover the point spread. You can then win various prizes depending on 1 to 5 correct selections. I don't really even pay attention to who I have. I just log in on Mondays and see what I've won. Again, it's entirely luck.
Well, today, I log in and find out I've won a share of the $50,000 bonus bet prize pool for having all 5 correct selections.
.
.
I was surprised that the split was so high, as I was expecting perhaps $50, at most. Instead, I received a $300 bonus bet.
.
.
Made some good calls with my FanDuel profit boosts this week, also. Hit on my 30% boost, 50% boost, and 100% boost.
.
.
Makes up for getting clipped last week on the Seahawks.
.
.
Still kicking Circa's ass, though, at a 75% win rate. That big loss on the Seahawks did drop my ROI significantly.
.
Major respect for smashing the Pats, nobody had that
Huge W for you bro
Thanks! FanDuel has upped their offers within their new rewards club.
For NFL Sundays, (the offers hit the account at 11 pm Saturday) they offer a 100% boost, a 50% boost (both $100 max bets for my account), and then usually a few other offers that change weekly.
The math says to always apply the boosts to an underdog that has a decent chance to hit. You're not going to win every bet, obviously, but you should (maybe?) win enough in the long run to turn a profit (really only because of the boosts). I just happened to pick correctly this week with New England. I'm doing well with the strategy so far...
The book had a "promotion", long story short, there were several tiers, the top tier being if the NFL teams for last week's games in total, scored over 70 TD's, on just a $5 bet to opt-in, you'd receive three 100% profit boosts. Well I Just looked and the three 100% boosts are posted.
Let the books keep beating up on each other with bigger and better promotions, boosts, comps, etc. I'm lovin' it, as I enjoy taking money from bookies more than life itself. 😎
last night i decided to broaden my horizons and tackle an individual prop bet. best wager i've made in a while. needed 88 or more from Bijan, and he broke off a house call from 59 yards out in the first 90 seconds of the game. it was a weird feeling essentially winning a bet that quickly, because i'm always sweating out games like a pig until the end. i need more stress-free dubyas like that. if anyone targets a prop they feel good about, don't hesitate to post it ahead of time..........i will definitely take a looksie.
As I said I was putting myself on ice until Sunday but since I only use extra expendable cash from my checking account and will not take money from savings to reload, I realized I had like $30.left in my checking until Friday so I tossed a $20 how'd you do at last night's game
It's fitting that I lost by one leg, so now I'm really on ice until Friday with only $5 in my checking account lol
@galaxy27 said:
last night i decided to broaden my horizons and tackle an individual prop bet. best wager i've made in a while. needed 88 or more from Bijan, and he broke off a house call from 59 yards out in the first 90 seconds of the game. it was a weird feeling essentially winning a bet that quickly, because i'm always sweating out games like a pig until the end. i need more stress-free dubyas like that. if anyone targets a prop they feel good about, don't hesitate to post it ahead of time..........i will definitely take a looksie.
I'll be cooking some stuff up on Sunday, I'll keep you updated brother
Positive vibes being sent your way. I've abstained and will pick it up in January. Football rules now. Also have 3 Nascar Chase bets live, Hamlin,Gibbs, for win and Logano for top 3. Placed bets before the Chase began.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Comments
Couldn't decide on anything in this Thursday night game. Late money coming in on the Browns.
Thought about a prop on Rodgers, but couldn't decide over or under 219.5
Did extremely well last week on college football. So looking forward to hopefully continuing that.
Now at my "esteemed" level 2, I just received four 50% profit boosts. But only on each specific game below.
Gotta play all four games. I'm the house on these four wagers with the odds in my favor.
Montana State @ Idaho
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Penn State @ Northwestern
Liberty @ Delaware
Outstanding to hear
I’ve got a no sweat bet for this specific game and I bought full game injury protection for 3% which is 75 cents.
The bottom bet was a special on DK that they offered, it was both Rodgers and Watson to each throw for 160 yards at +100 odds, I was all over that
Late in the 4th quarter last night I knew with absolute certainty that Pittsburgh was going to get that TD one way or another and almost as sure they would get the 2 point conversion for the typical "Made for TV" special late 4th quarter tie , of course I was right.
I was so happy it didn't go to OT, I wanted to win my bet and I knew you bought the smart man who has been around hook with Pittsburgh and as much as I wanted to win I didn't want Cleveland to win by a TD in OT because of your 3.1/2 line, I'm so pumped it worked out for both of us!!!
@perkdog
best possible scenario, based on what i'm seeing. you win, blue wins, i win (for now lol)
whenever i maneuver lines i always try to cover key numbers, if possible. last night it worked like a charm. no better feeling than winning by the hook.
you were all over Cleveland -- here and in pick'em
keep that genius rolling!
This strikes me as funny. I can't think of any sane reason to cash-out a NO SWEAT bet, and thus lose the promotion?
Please correct me if I missed something.
The cash out on the no sweat will give you "Cash" that is yours to do with, if you lose you get the "free" bet amount to BET and you get the winnings if it wins, you never get the literal cash bet amount back in your pocket jist the winnings
So if your hurting for money and place a no sweat $100 bet, you might cash out at say $50.if it's losing because the guaranteed $50.in your pocket might benefit you more than a free $100 bet that might lose
I'm not precisely sure what is the cash-out juice. But it's at least 10% probably more. I'm not adverse to cashing-out, and I think it can be used wisely in certain situations depending on the flow of the game.
Understood about the cancellation, and not receiving back the original wager on a no sweat bet, even if the second bet wins. That being said, on say a 50% equity cash-out, I believe that with a no sweat bet, it's better to let the wager run its course. I mean if the book is offering 50% equity, it means you still have a decent chance of winning the bet. And if it doesn't win, then you do get to wager the original bet amount, in the hope of winning back the lost money and possibly making an overall profit.
I have received maybe around five no sweat bet offers, and of course used them all. Sometimes the second bet won, and sometimes it lost. Bottom line - I do strongly feel that cashing-out a no sweat bet, places the odds horribly in the bookie's favor, and in the long run is detrimental.
Oh well, another big weekend coming up, with some interesting possibilities I'm already seeing. The Penn State game tonight, with them coming off an unexpected loss, intrigues me. Not sure yet which way I'm gonna play it. But I've got a 50% boost, so the money is going in on something, even if I have to flip a coin.
Thanks for the reply!
i needed the Bills to win prior to this bet
let's see if i'll need them to win a little more
-7589.73
As the phrase goes:"Let it ride". Will invest my Thursday parlay winnings into 3 parlays for sunday.1)Over Colts game 47,Over Dallas game 48,Over Jax game 51.5.
2)Over GB game 39,Bills ML,Ravens ML,Minn ML.
3)Over Rams game 43.5,Over Atl game 47.5,Over Detroit game 51.
Some high, challenging, over scores to attain.
The good news - Virginia Tech misses a chip shot field goal at the end of the game.
The bad news - I promised to not use profanity and stay away from wild women for 24 hours, if Virginia Tech misses the field goal. Never thought I'd have to abide by that. 😂😂😂😂😂
i wonder how many open teasers i'm going to have tied to the Bills come Sunday
-7589.73
All $5 bet amounts.
Syracuse ML
Parlay - 30% boost
Syracuse ML, Under 51.5
Notre Dame ML - only to receive future profit boosts
Alabama ML
Sirens calling me to bet against the Dodgers.
For now, I'm abstaining from any MLB. However if I get hot on the 12:00 college games, I may tickle the Braves in that game, comes on at 4:00.
>
Huge controversy over this field goal call from the ref. I just watched the replay. Kick looked good to me.
Caught a very nice break. I'll take it.
Ohio State ML
Braves ML with a 50% heroin boost
South Carolina ML
Only missed the parlay by 31.5 points. 😳
Oregon State ML
Slight loss for the day. Very disappointing, considering last Saturday went so well.
Sports betting - tough way to make a living.
How many bets did you make today?
Caught the Colts ML in the early game for a good start. Just hope it ain't a bad finish. 😐
Have a nice 3-parlay 50% profit boost. Gotta use it. Problem is I have trouble hitting a 2-parlay. 🤔
of course the reeling Pats go into Buffalo and take out the undefeated Bills in their own crib
why do i gamble again ?
-7869.73
1-1 in the other games, for a slight profit for the day. Would have been 3-3 if the Cardinals could have just punched it in, 3rd and goal at the Giants 4, for the win, with around ten seconds left. On 4th down the dam QB throws a pick-6 which considering the game was lost for me with an incompletion, I couldn't care less about it.
Nothing jumping out at me the rest of the day. The Chiefs may have a little value at that line, but not enough for a wager in my view.
They're betting the Braves right in the game tonight. But I think MLB has already punished me enough for the season. So I'll pass. It's a choice between going to the local Medieval torture chamber service, and laying on the rack for a few hours, or playing the game. I'm choosing the rack, it's less painful.
Knocked out early on 2 of my pars. Still alive with 1 with Rams covered over. Have both night games for overs.
oh, that's why i gamble
because every so often the sun shines on my azz and it douses the fire with fuel
-7742.61
Too many losses to post up
Let's just say it was a bad weekend for gambling
Dropped $500 at the casino and another $900 betting
75% of it was drunk betting so I'm on Ice until next Sunday
Posting this now to remind myself that I WILL NOT BET COLLEGE NEXT SATURDAY
Every week this season I've gone into Saturday chasing losses from College and I'm not doing it next weekend
Thanks for listening 😅
Gibbs, anytime touchdown, with a 30% boost.
Just to be sociable. LOL
-7797.61
Like most sportsbooks, betMGM has a free game to entice you to log in daily. They require you to log in Monday through Friday, and reach day they will randomly assign you an NFL team to cover the point spread. You can then win various prizes depending on 1 to 5 correct selections. I don't really even pay attention to who I have. I just log in on Mondays and see what I've won. Again, it's entirely luck.
Well, today, I log in and find out I've won a share of the $50,000 bonus bet prize pool for having all 5 correct selections.
.
.
I was surprised that the split was so high, as I was expecting perhaps $50, at most. Instead, I received a $300 bonus bet.
.
.
Made some good calls with my FanDuel profit boosts this week, also. Hit on my 30% boost, 50% boost, and 100% boost.
.
.
Makes up for getting clipped last week on the Seahawks.
.
.
Still kicking Circa's ass, though, at a 75% win rate. That big loss on the Seahawks did drop my ROI significantly.
.
Especially with Polymarket and Kalshi now in the mix, the books are beating each other up out there with promotions.
I've never owned any DraftKings stock. But I follow it. DK was at $53 a share around a year and a half ago, closing at $18 today. This at a time when the stock market has reached record highs. I wouldn't expect DK to lay down like a dog and watch their stock price continue to fall. So they're doing what they can to keep and attract customers. This competition of course is good for the consumer.
I'm not saying their product is good. It's gambling and we all understand this. That being said, if a sports bettor looking to make money, can't make a profit in this climate with all the free goodies being offered, milking the promotions, etc, perhaps they should think about doing something else?
I agree with ya that's a nice bonus bet award, and I think a good illustration of my previous post.
If playing random games, trying to pick winners against the spread, the odds of hitting all 5 is around 3%. So if I'm doing the math right, with the 50k prize pool, and a $300 award, it means around 167 players hit it.
Way to go milking those offers, and also good handicapping on your part!
Major respect for smashing the Pats, nobody had that
Huge W for you bro
Played two props. Already caught the receiving prop, so there's a decent profit for the night even without a successful review. Gotta like that at least I've got a shot at getting my money back.
With the Saints behind now by 21 points, I'd have to think that they're just gonna keep him in the locker room. No sense bringing him back out in a hopeless cause.
Well so much for "logic" trying to figure out the mind of an NFL head coach. Kamara got back in the game and scored his second TD. But I still need 7 yards to hit the dam prop.
Thanks! FanDuel has upped their offers within their new rewards club.
For NFL Sundays, (the offers hit the account at 11 pm Saturday) they offer a 100% boost, a 50% boost (both $100 max bets for my account), and then usually a few other offers that change weekly.
The math says to always apply the boosts to an underdog that has a decent chance to hit. You're not going to win every bet, obviously, but you should (maybe?) win enough in the long run to turn a profit (really only because of the boosts). I just happened to pick correctly this week with New England. I'm doing well with the strategy so far...
The book had a "promotion", long story short, there were several tiers, the top tier being if the NFL teams for last week's games in total, scored over 70 TD's, on just a $5 bet to opt-in, you'd receive three 100% profit boosts. Well I Just looked and the three 100% boosts are posted.
Let the books keep beating up on each other with bigger and better promotions, boosts, comps, etc. I'm lovin' it, as I enjoy taking money from bookies more than life itself. 😎
Caught my last parlay for $34.47 for $5. Bet $15 for the 3 pars. Net gain $19.47.
last night i decided to broaden my horizons and tackle an individual prop bet. best wager i've made in a while. needed 88 or more from Bijan, and he broke off a house call from 59 yards out in the first 90 seconds of the game. it was a weird feeling essentially winning a bet that quickly, because i'm always sweating out games like a pig until the end. i need more stress-free dubyas like that. if anyone targets a prop they feel good about, don't hesitate to post it ahead of time..........i will definitely take a looksie.
As I said I was putting myself on ice until Sunday but since I only use extra expendable cash from my checking account and will not take money from savings to reload, I realized I had like $30.left in my checking until Friday so I tossed a $20 how'd you do at last night's game
It's fitting that I lost by one leg, so now I'm really on ice until Friday with only $5 in my checking account lol
I'll be cooking some stuff up on Sunday, I'll keep you updated brother
Nice work on Bijan
a good ol' Tues-Thurs-Sat parlay
-7697.61
can't help myself blue
⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️⛳️
-7697.61
Positive vibes being sent your way. I've abstained and will pick it up in January. Football rules now. Also have 3 Nascar Chase bets live, Hamlin,Gibbs, for win and Logano for top 3. Placed bets before the Chase began.
All four MLB playoff games today very intriguing. With a nice boost, any of them are playable, in my opinion.
Yankees ML with a 50% boost