The 2024 Football QB RC market just crashed this weekend.

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ndleo
ndleo Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum

In the spirit of the 2021 and 2023 QB RCs, it looks like 2024 is about to crash as well. All of the top QBs took literal hits to their investment thesis.

Caleb looks soft. Jayden is made of glass, Drake Maye looks like Mac Jones Jr. JJ McCarthy is already toast. The best two rookies so far - Bo Nix and Tyler Shough - are the same age as Trevor Lawrence.

I am amazed how quicky that happened. The modern QB market is still being driven by Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. There hasn't been an "elite" hobby QB added since. I thought Caleb Williams had a shot, but I can't get over how soft he looked yesterday like a European soccer player. I thought he tore his Achilles.

I know a bunch of local dealers in SoCal have a ton invested in 2024 FB boxes. I wonder when the holders will capitulate and start selling. It's early and some of them could turn it around, but 3 of them won't even be playing the next month.

Mike

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  • NJ80sBBC
    NJ80sBBC Posts: 841 ✭✭✭✭
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    It’s insane. I am not much of a collector but my FB friends pushed me to buy this issue. And when I place a bet I usually try and go pretty big. I’m sitting on a hoard of depreciating 24 retail.

    I have 21-24 covered but 8x 24 vs the other years.

    Up in smoke!

    John

    Conundrum - Loving my unopened baseball card collection....but really like ripping too
  • craig44
    craig44 Posts: 13,178 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    i think caleb and drake will be just fine. little less confident on bo.

    George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

  • ndleo
    ndleo Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    @NJ80sBBC said:
    It’s insane. I am not much of a collector but my FB friends pushed me to buy this issue. And when I place a bet I usually try and go pretty big. I’m sitting on a hoard of depreciating 24 retail.

    I have 21-24 covered but 8x 24 vs the other years.

    Up in smoke!

    John

    I wanted to buy a ton of 2024 football retail, but I couldn't since everyone in my area was raiding and hoarding. I think some of the local Target employees were selling the 2024 Optic out the back door since I never saw it on the shelfs but there were a few guys selling quantity to dealers at Frank & Sons card show.

    Mike
  • 1982FootballWax
    1982FootballWax Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    Please explain why "investing" so much into brand new product is better mid-long term than invest same amounts into vintage?

    That not snark I just don't understand it other than it being gambling.

    It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
    Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)

  • ndleo
    ndleo Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    Since the 2021 NFL Draft, there have been 20 QBs taken in round 1-2. These are typically the rookies that drive the market. Here is how I rank all 20 in terms potential for next hobby elite star after Joe Burrow.

    Before I start, I put Brock Purdy actually at #1 to be the next hobby star. He maybe already there but I think there are still a lot of doubters. He wasn't a 1-2 pick, so I excluded him.

    Tier 1 - Solid Contenders - need a Super Bowl, multiple playoff runs, MVP contender, All-Pro, notable stats

    Trevor Lawrence
    CJ Stroud
    Caleb Williams
    Drake Maye
    Jaxson Dart

    Tier 2 - Potential but Unproven

    Bryce Young
    Cam Ward
    Tyler Shough
    Bo Nix
    Jayden Daniels

    Tier 3 - Lottery Ticket, still may have a chance in the right situation, late career resurgence

    Mac Jones
    Michael Penix Jr
    Anthony Richardson
    JJ McCarthy

    Tier 4 - Done as prospects

    Zack Wilson
    Trey Lance
    Justin Fields
    Kyle Trask
    Kenny Pickett
    Will Levis

    Mike
  • EnriqueRomo80
    EnriqueRomo80 Posts: 30 ✭✭
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    Don’t buy football lol

  • NJ80sBBC
    NJ80sBBC Posts: 841 ✭✭✭✭
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    Terrible investment decision to buy modern anything as investment. But I always pick up some boxes and Stowe away.

    I am a late 70s/80s unopened guy. Who got brought into modern by Judge in 2017. My extension into FB wasn’t until 2021 where my close friend was going all in and I dabbled.

    Live n learn.

    John

    Conundrum - Loving my unopened baseball card collection....but really like ripping too
  • ElMagoStrikeZone
    ElMagoStrikeZone Posts: 2,241 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    They laughed years ago at this place when some members boasted about how they were hoarding stuff nobody else would touch and well….maybe the next generation of members here will be discussing how the current trash turned into treasure.

  • HOMETOWNSPORTS
    HOMETOWNSPORTS Posts: 360 ✭✭✭
    edited September 23, 2026 8:10AM
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    @1982FootballWax said:
    Please explain why "investing" so much into brand new product is better mid-long term than invest same amounts into vintage?

    That not snark I just don't understand it other than it being gambling.

    Simple risk reward combined with new money and old money - New stuff can appreciate much more than vintage. Vintage is basically an established mature market with little price swings and goes up maybe an average of %10 a year for the last twenty years with the exception of the high end PSA 9 and 10's can which can see wild swings like modern cards. It's Similar to investing in stocks where you have the stable "Vintage Blue Chips" which get steadily go up with little major price swings and the modern high flying companies can see huge changes in price. This is the basic normalized reason I think.

  • ndleo
    ndleo Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    The hobby has many sectors. I follow the modern market because I follow the current game. No other reason than that. I love my Jim Brown and Payton RC but they aint suiting up on Sunday.

    On Monday night, Jameis Winston RCs sold well on ebay. I was able to get rid of a couple of Winston RCs I had.

    Mike
  • HOMETOWNSPORTS
    HOMETOWNSPORTS Posts: 360 ✭✭✭
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    Right on! @ndleo

  • ndleo
    ndleo Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    The golden era for modern retail football was 2016-2020. You could get boxes at the actual store for list price, usually $20-$50 per box. I went big in 2018 and pulled a bunch of Josh Allens, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnolds. I even pulled a Downtown Josh Allen RC. The only down year was 2019, but even then Kyler Murray and Deebo sold well for a while.

    2021-2025 have been tough. Except for 2022, all of the new product started off expensive. Retail scalping has taken away any real value from the boxes. It's gotten better in 2025-2026 in terms of getting retail product at a decent cost. I only buy hobby on rare occasions, I can't justify ripping a lot of new NFL hobby product at the current prices.

    Mike
  • Porkins
    Porkins Posts: 619 ✭✭✭
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    I had been back into the hobby much longer, but during the pandemic started getting into retail, seeing the prices Mahomes rookie retail was bringing. I had a LOT of fun with the chase at the time, both online and in town. I’m a ripper at heart, so I never minded the idea of it all ending up on the chopping block, however I won’t say that I never had visions of selling many multi-hundred dollar blasters off one day. To give everything a fair chance, I made myself delay all ripping by 3 years, anyway, in case anything did, in fact, go nuclear. Needless to say, I’ve done a lot of retail football ripping the last few years.

  • ndleo
    ndleo Posts: 4,259 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    Michael Penix showed a little life yesterday. If he can continue to use the run to setup the pass, he could be a poor mans Brock Purdy in that offense.

    Hopefully his knees hold up.

    Mike

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