The Currency Market Overall -- Bullish, Bearish, Where Are We ?
GoldFinger1969
Posts: 3,530 ✭✭✭✭✭
I mentioned in another thread that I added another edition of a U.S. currency book with pricing. I realize the prices are just an approximation but they are better than nothing. 
I find comparing the prices for the same U.S. bills 7-10 years apart instructive to see what has happened in the past.
It got me thinking....what HAS been the trend in U.S. currency/bill prices the last 15 years or so since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09 ? I know for coins we had a major bear market as evidenced by the PCGS 3000 Index. Went down sharply into 2020 and since have reversed.
Is there a price index for currency bills ? Does anybody know how the U.S. currency market has done over the last 15 years ? Prices up, down, or flattish ?
Based on my admittedly beginner level of experience and not someone who has access to The Greensheet or sees dealer prices frequently....it appears that except for certain "trophy" bills that most bills in the $500 - $15,000 range are FLAT or even DOWN the last few years, maybe going back 10-12 years. I noticed in the HA auctions that bills coming up for re-sale for the first time in a decade or bills similar to one which set the high-water mark...are going for LESS or at most about the same price.
Unlike coins (which can rise up with PM prices providing a floor) I didn't see any evidence of a bull market, outside of that nice rise in Large Denomination Currency lower-grade bills that we saw in 2020-22 by new buyers during Covid.
Any thoughts from the veterans out there ?
Comments
Track&Price will show you the historical auction results for any particular currency that you're curious about.
I'm not a veteran collector, but I can tell you that the auction market for most National Banknotes appears to be strong. Notes from banks that are on my want list have been creeping up over the last 10 years. Not a lot, but enough to be noticeable.
Thanks, that's useful. I just read an interesting analysis by the Cleveland Fed on why National Bank Notes got eclipsed by Silver Certificates. That reduced supply of NBN's is one reason their price rises today !
**How is the market for fancy serial numbers and errors doing these days? I assembled a deeply advanced collection since 1996, but I took a break for the past 15 years to start my family, raise my son, and start my business - until just this week when I purchased this Specimen Big Head $20 from www.USARare.com. **
Meet my first little guy, Benjamin. Born 4/8/2007
Pic taken at 2.5 years of age.
Am picking up low pop graded notes I like. Besides USA - Especially world,CSA, Ovsolete.
Could a note drop almost 50% in price because of weak market conditions, excusing a hot market when it was first sold and then re-sold later without a bidding war or active buyers showing up ?
In early-2020, this bill sold for $2,280 (w/bp):
https://currency.ha.com/itm/small-size/federal-reserve-notes/fancy-serial-number-00077777-fr-1955-j-5-1934-light-green-seal-federal-reserve-note-pmg-gem-uncirculated-66-epq/a/3577-20582.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515
Then 4 years later it's almost half-off at $1,260:
https://currency.ha.com/itm/small-size/federal-reserve-notes/fancy-serial-number-00077777-fr-1955-j-5-1934-light-green-seal-federal-reserve-note-pmg-gem-uncirculated-66-epq/a/3595-21141.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515
Did the market get overbought for some U.S. Currency other than Large Denomination Bills early in Covid ?
I was never bitten by the Fancy Serial Number bug
, so I can't speak to market values for those notes.
I did notice, however, that this note was re-holdered between 2020 and 2024. Perhaps it was resubmitted to PMG in hopes of getting a 67?
coolserialnumbers.com appears gone.
Lately, it feels like there has been an upward shift in pricing for a lot of large sized notes. Anecdotally, here's an example from last night. Prices seen below are before the buyer's premium:
I agree....as someone who mostly is active in the Small Size arena, I was sort of glad that hot money wasn't coming into my sector. But I do have some Large Size Notes on my radar screen, so I am not totally indifferent.
I guess there's just fewer high-quality survivors in the Large Size notes. Wilder colors, too.
EPQ/PPQ notes in general, especially the older ones are doing fine. Fancies are a crap shoot; a recent auction locally had a lot of unsold notes.
(Maybe its time take another look at currency again) just saing
You mean fancy SNs ?
Yes, radars, repeaters, hard to value.
If they were unsold, maybe the minimums weren't reached. I actually think most of those are easily valued because there are lots of comps to establish a value.
The probelm is for the high-end with ultra-rare SNs where the price jumps a ton (like 3-4x) and you have to be a serious player with deep pockets to play in that end of the pool.
Or a limited pool of buyers willing to pay strong money. Compare to classic large size currency which has a broad collecting community willing to compete in buying them.
Many of the rarest obsolete notes are selling for less, some much less, over the past 20 years. The market for rare proofs was hyped by several lower profile "dealers" 10-20 years ago who were selling to a few wealthy collectors. The market peaked with auctions like the 52 collection and proofs from Peter Mayer. Now, many of those exact same notes can be had a 1/4 to 1/3 of the prices of 15-20 years ago. If you are playing in the high end where the air is thin, you can easily get burned.
However, lower priced obsoletes have generally increased, some more than doubling, since Covid. Another factor is the recent deaths of several old time dealers and collectors and the sale of their material. Lots of Alabama and Arkansas is now available due to recent auctions of these comprehensive collections. Combine this with the fact that the largest buyer (now the seller) is not competing in this thin market where there are few other buyers. The result is that rare notes from these states that were previously unobtainable are now available, sometimes at half their previous values.
The largest dealer group of high, low and middle rarity obsoletes hit the market after the death of Hugh Shull, everyone's favorite gentleman obsolete currency dealer. Hugh arranged private sales for his inventory (and, presumably collection) while he has been retailing through a local coin dealer on Ebay for years now. Now, I recognize his inventory in the inventories of many dealers, some in obsoletes but many coin dealers, too. Some of his material has found it's way to public auction but much is being snapped up by knowledgeable collectors who recognize that this could be their only opportunity to obtain a rare note. Other material is going unsold and being returned to the consignor.
The support for high end material is not as consistent as previously while the lower end seems to have strengthened.
Well, that's the picture of the obsolete market, in a nutshell.