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SemiQ 2026 $1 Coin Rolls & Bags on sale Sep 2nd. Let the privy hunt begin!

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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    This level of skepticism is nothing more than a natural consequence of multiple games they have played with multiple releases over the past few years. It is not ill founded, regardless of how this turns out this time.

    The odds of them doing what you claim is like 1 in 5000. Sure there is a chance, but it is barely there.

    It could also be the opposite and they don't put enough in the first batches and have to put more in the later ones.

    However, the more a person opens, the better the odds are of ending up with the average amount of one privy per 35 coins.

    So far it looks like uneven distribution, so some are getting skunked and others are getting more than the average. The products sold out so the mint is happy regardless of what we think.

    No. Based on what they did with the FH silver privies, the odds are actually better than 50-50.

    But the bottom line is that we just don't know, because the possibilities are binary. And they are not based on chance, or on what anyone here thinks makes sense operationally. Rather, they are based on what the Mint chose to do.

    They either mixed the 250K privies into the 8.5 million non-privies prior to packaging, and then stopped packaging midway through because they ran out of rolls and bags, or, they predetermined how many rolls and bags to make available at launch and mixed the privies into those coins. Not because they had to, but because that would give a disproportionate number to ABPP. Exactly as they did with the FH silver medals.

    With the FH silver medals, they then decided not to make the missing quantity available for sale. Here, they did, on a back order basis. Whether or not the back orders will contain privies will not be based on your reasoned, operational analysis of what they could have done, or should have done. It will be based on what they chose to do.

    And that, we do not know. Had they not played games in the past, there would be no reason to question this, and your 1 in 5,000 estimate would be correct. But they did and we do, so 1 in 5,000 is based on nothing.

    It is already done. We just don't know what it is yet.

    There are either a bunch of pre-mixed coins waiting to be packaged, or the bags and rolls will be going out with no privies. Many bags and rolls, among those they were mixed with privies, contained no privies. So they Mint could also just say "luck of the draw" if all of the back ordered items contain no privies. They will likely say nothing at all.

    Of course, they could also easily have done the right thing. We'll just have to wait and see.

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    HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:
    No. Based on what they did with the FH silver privies, the odds are actually better than 50-50.

    I have no idea how you can claim it is better than 50-50 when they took orders for the entire amount, and already know how much they have to be mixed in.

    Didn't you claim they held back 25k silver flowing hair medals for later release?

    That release was an entirely different path than the mint took here, if i remember it accurately. In that case they underproduced the stated limits, and you held on to that they actually struck the entire amount when they didn't.

    With these we know they have struck the entire amount as the production blog says so.

    They struck enough to cover all rolls and bags, so they must have been short on packaging. So you really think the mint would dump all 250,000 privy into the early bags and rolls and just call it a day and leave it at that? Then send out to other half with no privy coins? And you think it is better than 50-50 that they will do it? lol

    Get ready to be disappointed again.

    Is there a slight chance the mint would pull this on us? Yes, but it is very slight and no more. Like being hit with lightning.

    Most likely the coins for the backorder are sitting on a floor at the mint already mixed and waiting for the packaging.

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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 10:23AM

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    No. Based on what they did with the FH silver privies, the odds are actually better than 50-50.

    I have no idea how you can claim it is better than 50-50 when they took orders for the entire amount, and already know how much they have to be mixed in.

    Didn't you claim they held back 25k silver flowing hair medals for later release?

    That release was an entirely different path than the mint took here, if i remember it accurately. In that case they underproduced the stated limits, and you held on to that they actually struck the entire amount when they didn't.

    With these we know they have struck the entire amount as the production blog says so.

    They struck enough to cover all rolls and bags, so they must have been short on packaging. So you really think the mint would dump all 250,000 privy into the early bags and rolls and just call it a day and leave it at that? Then send out to other half with no privy coins? And you think it is better than 50-50 that they will do it? lol

    Get ready to be disappointed again.

    Is there a slight chance the mint would pull this on us? Yes, but it is very slight and no more. Like being hit with lightning.

    Most likely the coins for the backorder are sitting on a floor at the mint already mixed and waiting for the packaging.

    I'm only saying that because they did it 100% of the other times. I have no way to know.

    Neither do you. That's my only point.

    Yes, I was sure they were going to produce the other 25K the last time. Because they could have easily sold them, given that they were part of a valuable privy lottery, and I thought their objective was to sell up to the maximum mintage if they could.

    I was wrong. And I learned from it.

    What I learned is that they do what they to do. Typically to benefit their best customers, the Big Boys, without regard to the rest of us.

    If that happened this time, the privies are already spoken for. OTOH, if they are talking care of everybody this time, the privies will be included in back ordered product. Either alternative is entirely possible. We'll see.

    But there is no such thing as "short on packaging." When they made the coins, they knew they'd be needing 150K rolls and 50K bags. These are not precious resources that need to be sourced from remote regions of the earth.

    As with the FH silver medals, they intentionally made less than the maximum authorized product available at launch. Unlike the FH silver medals, they took back orders for the balance.

    Only they know why. But there is a "1 in 5,000" chance that the reason was because there is a shortage of both paper coin rolls and cloth bags.

    I will not be disappointed if the back orders contain privies. They should, because the privies should be mixed in all 8.5 million. Not only a predetermined portion thereof, But their past conduct raises the legitimate question. I sincerely hope you do not end up being disappointed if the Mint performs true to form.

    Because this will not be determined by a "slight chance." It will be the result of an intentional decision. Either they did it or they didn't.

    The last time, they did. Based on that, this time, people who source Mint product on the secondary market for resale are holding off on financial commitments for back ordered product until they see what's what. That alone legitimizes my concern, regardless of what ends up happening here.

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    HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:
    As with the FH silver medals, they intentionally made less than the maximum authorized product available at launch. Unlike the FH silver medals, they took back orders for the balance.

    They did not intentionally made less than the maximum authorized product available at launch, as they struck all the coins necessary for the entire release and took orders for all of it, with some being backorders.

    End of story.

    If you want a comparison with the FH medals, then they would have had to put up 75k of those on day of release, and later struck the remaining 25k needed and issued them without privy medals. But they didn't do it that way.

    This is why it makes no sense to somehow use that as an example of how the mint is lying here with this release. If the mint issues the backorder amount with no privy coins at all. And make no mistake about it, it would amount to lying to customers.

    So far it appears the privy coins are randomly inserted in the bags and rolls at about the amount they should be. Due to sloppy insertion though more customers will be skunked than would happen if they did a careful insertion. But either way the numbers seem about right.

    If it was the way you claim then nearly every roll would have a privy or two, and the bags would all have six each on average. That is not what seems to be occurring.

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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 10:46AM

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    As with the FH silver medals, they intentionally made less than the maximum authorized product available at launch. Unlike the FH silver medals, they took back orders for the balance.

    They did not intentionally made less than the maximum authorized product available at launch, as they struck all the coins necessary for the entire release and took orders for all of it, with some being backorders.

    End of story.

    If you want a comparison with the FH medals, then they would have had to put up 75k of those on day of release, and later struck the remaining 25k needed and issued them without privy medals. But they didn't do it that way.

    This is why it makes no sense to somehow use that as an example of how the mint is lying here with this release. If the mint issues the backorder amount with no privy coins at all. And make no mistake about it, it would amount to lying to customers.

    So far it appears the privy coins are randomly inserted in the bags and rolls at about the amount they should be. Due to sloppy insertion though more customers will be skunked than would happen if they did a careful insertion. But either way the numbers seem about right.

    If it was the way you claim then nearly every roll would have a privy or two, and the bags would all have six each on average. That is not what seems to be occurring.

    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    We don't know "what is occurring" because we don't know what ABPP got. Again, I am not arguing that the back orders won't have privies. Only that it's a significant, non-zero possibility. And only because the Mint plays games.

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    NephasthNephasth Posts: 207 ✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 10:53AM

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    .

    @NJCoin said:
    No. You are confused. They are "available to buy" because they allow people to buy them. As distinguished from "available to ship."

    ATS tells they system what it can sell. Which is literally what is available to buy.

    Not what is in the warehouse. You are not even supposed to see it.

    Too funny... :D

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    DotStoreDotStore Posts: 936 ✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    500.

    500 Rolls today? Dang it, I missed out on getting a few...

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    HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    You don't have any evidence to support your side, and I do to support mine.

    The actual production blog and order volumes.

    They struck all the coins, and they took all the orders. You can create a conspiracy theory on how the mint is going to scam customers over this, but anyone who listens to you and sells the backorder over fear there are no privy coins will be unhappy to learn it was all smoke after they start shipping with privy coins.

    Also any product that shows up each day as cancelled orders is quickly bought up, showing many others do not believe it either. And it may actually end up the opposite, where more end up in the last rolls. It is all chance and that is how the mint set it up. Did they do a perfect job of this? No, but it appears random at this point as it should.

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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 11:50AM

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    You don't have any evidence to support your side, and I do to support mine.

    The actual production blog and order volumes.

    They struck all the coins, and they took all the orders. You can create a conspiracy theory on how the mint is going to scam customers over this, but anyone who listens to you and sells the backorder over fear there are no privy coins will be unhappy to learn it was all smoke after they start shipping with privy coins.

    Also any product that shows up each day as cancelled orders is quickly bought up, showing many others do not believe it either. And it may actually end up the opposite, where more end up in the last rolls. It is all chance and that is how the mint set it up. Did they do a perfect job of this? No, but it appears random at this point as it should.

    We'll see. My "evidence" is past practice. Yours is a production blog that speaks to the production of 16.4 million coins, without distinguishing privies.

    And a Mint notice that stated that privies would only be going in rolls and bags sold through the website. You have no idea when and how privies were mixed into the 8.5 million other coins to be sold in rolls and bags, or whether that mixing was done exclusively into the population of rolls and bags ready to go at launch.

    Neither do I. We each have no "evidence" at all. Just speculation.

    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility. If mine was nonsense the secondary market buyers would not be hesitant to commit to back ordered coins. They are.

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

  • Options
    HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:
    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility.

    That is a big drop from " Based on what they did with the FH silver privies, the odds are actually better than 50-50."

    If this was a creative writing class I would give you an a+. If it was a class on introduction to logic, the grade will be at the other end.

    In a month we will see. It is also possible they ship backorders sooner than that.

    Let's not forget in the "old days" the mint has a spokesperson who would answer questions like this. Now it is crickets from the mint. So it opens them up to speculation like this, no matter how unbelievable it is.

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 43,078 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    You don't have any evidence to support your side, and I do to support mine.

    The actual production blog and order volumes.

    They struck all the coins, and they took all the orders. You can create a conspiracy theory on how the mint is going to scam customers over this, but anyone who listens to you and sells the backorder over fear there are no privy coins will be unhappy to learn it was all smoke after they start shipping with privy coins.

    Also any product that shows up each day as cancelled orders is quickly bought up, showing many others do not believe it either. And it may actually end up the opposite, where more end up in the last rolls. It is all chance and that is how the mint set it up. Did they do a perfect job of this? No, but it appears random at this point as it should.

    We'll see. My "evidence" is past practice. Yours is a production blog that speaks to the production of 16.4 million coins, without distinguishing privies.

    And a Mint notice that stated that privies would only be going in rolls and bags sold through the website. You have no idea when and how privies were mixed into the 8.5 million other coins to be sold in rolls and bags, or whether that mixing was done exclusively into the population of rolls and bags ready to go at launch.

    Neither do I. We each have no "evidence" at all. Just speculation.

    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility. If mine was nonsense the secondary market buyers would not be hesitant to commit to back ordered coins. They are.

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

    Actually, I think the secondary market isn't concerned with privy yields. It's not knowing the price of the privies two months out. If they are $25 coins, which they might be, you can only break even at 3 per bag.

    All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.

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    SweetpieSweetpie Posts: 563 ✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

    That may happen but highly unlikely. By the time any data points are processed, most of the BOs are already shipped and past the rerturn window.

    And then you need thousands and thousands of data points to make a trend.

    Not gonna happen.

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    Batman23Batman23 Posts: 5,496 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:

    @DotStore said:

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    500.

    500 Rolls today? Dang it, I missed out on getting a few...

    I only got 9!!!

    Nice. Did you have to battle a waiting room also?

  • Options
    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility.

    That is a big drop from " Based on what they did with the FH silver privies, the odds are actually better than 50-50."

    If this was a creative writing class I would give you an a+. If it was a class on introduction to logic, the grade will be at the other end.

    In a month we will see. It is also possible they ship backorders sooner than that.

    Let's not forget in the "old days" the mint has a spokesperson who would answer questions like this. Now it is crickets from the mint. So it opens them up to speculation like this, no matter how unbelievable it is.

    Yes. Based on FH silver, it's 100%. But it might not be based on FH silver.

    Again, for the umpteenth time, there is no reason to put words in my mouth. I never made a prediction.

    I only raised a possibility. A question.

    A legitimate question, based on questionable conduct engaged in the Mint in the past. I am not the only one, although I seem to be the only one actively engaged with you on the topic.

  • Options
    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 3:11PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    You don't have any evidence to support your side, and I do to support mine.

    The actual production blog and order volumes.

    They struck all the coins, and they took all the orders. You can create a conspiracy theory on how the mint is going to scam customers over this, but anyone who listens to you and sells the backorder over fear there are no privy coins will be unhappy to learn it was all smoke after they start shipping with privy coins.

    Also any product that shows up each day as cancelled orders is quickly bought up, showing many others do not believe it either. And it may actually end up the opposite, where more end up in the last rolls. It is all chance and that is how the mint set it up. Did they do a perfect job of this? No, but it appears random at this point as it should.

    We'll see. My "evidence" is past practice. Yours is a production blog that speaks to the production of 16.4 million coins, without distinguishing privies.

    And a Mint notice that stated that privies would only be going in rolls and bags sold through the website. You have no idea when and how privies were mixed into the 8.5 million other coins to be sold in rolls and bags, or whether that mixing was done exclusively into the population of rolls and bags ready to go at launch.

    Neither do I. We each have no "evidence" at all. Just speculation.

    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility. If mine was nonsense the secondary market buyers would not be hesitant to commit to back ordered coins. They are.

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

    Actually, I think the secondary market isn't concerned with privy yields. It's not knowing the price of the privies two months out. If they are $25 coins, which they might be, you can only break even at 3 per bag.

    I am only going by this post, which does not seem unreasonable:

    @HoneyMarket said:
    Is anyone else signed up for flipping these to PFS?

    I love how they are slow-rolling this out to determine if any Privy's are reported in the back-ordered bags.

    They are playing both sides - first they would not take any Rolls - but now that Rolls are shipping and reports are being made that Privy's are in the rolls...they all of sudden want Rolls and will even change your order to indicate they want the rolls in your order but they're not sure yet if they want the backordered bags!

    Wow... They really are playing both sides of this to their advantage...all the while...offering only $28 payout for two rolls!

    I could easily make more here on BST selling any found Privy's, all the while spending the rest and still be ahead.

    Not to mention, they are as likely to be $25 coins as the cents are, or as the July 4th quarters are. Anything is possible, but it's unlikely in the intermediate term, given that there are "only" 250K of them, and that people seem interested.

    The Mint didn't blow through 8.75 million of them because people are anxious to pay a premium for something available at face value from a bank. The bank rolls are being sold on eBay, so someone was able to get their hands on them.

  • Options
    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 3:16PM

    @Sweetpie said:

    @NJCoin said:

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

    That may happen but highly unlikely. By the time any data points are processed, most of the BOs are already shipped and past the rerturn window.

    And then you need thousands and thousands of data points to make a trend.

    Not gonna happen.

    Why would you say that? DPs will be reported as soon as they are received. Well within any return window.

    People are not going to need "thousands and thousands" of DPs. A handful that all say the same thing, one way or the other, will be sufficient.

    The back orders will either have privies or they won't. If 10 people report, and none of them have privies, that will be good enough for most people not to bust open their bags and rolls, unless they were going to keep them anyway.

    Because I don't think the Mint accepts returns of coins removed from their packaging. Which would be the bags and rolls in this case.

  • Options
    HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 4:04PM

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    You don't have any evidence to support your side, and I do to support mine.

    The actual production blog and order volumes.

    They struck all the coins, and they took all the orders. You can create a conspiracy theory on how the mint is going to scam customers over this, but anyone who listens to you and sells the backorder over fear there are no privy coins will be unhappy to learn it was all smoke after they start shipping with privy coins.

    Also any product that shows up each day as cancelled orders is quickly bought up, showing many others do not believe it either. And it may actually end up the opposite, where more end up in the last rolls. It is all chance and that is how the mint set it up. Did they do a perfect job of this? No, but it appears random at this point as it should.

    We'll see. My "evidence" is past practice. Yours is a production blog that speaks to the production of 16.4 million coins, without distinguishing privies.

    And a Mint notice that stated that privies would only be going in rolls and bags sold through the website. You have no idea when and how privies were mixed into the 8.5 million other coins to be sold in rolls and bags, or whether that mixing was done exclusively into the population of rolls and bags ready to go at launch.

    Neither do I. We each have no "evidence" at all. Just speculation.

    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility. If mine was nonsense the secondary market buyers would not be hesitant to commit to back ordered coins. They are.

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

    Actually, I think the secondary market isn't concerned with privy yields. It's not knowing the price of the privies two months out. If they are $25 coins, which they might be, you can only break even at 3 per bag.

    I am only going by this post, which does not seem unreasonable:

    @HoneyMarket said:
    Is anyone else signed up for flipping these to PFS?

    I love how they are slow-rolling this out to determine if any Privy's are reported in the back-ordered bags.

    They are playing both sides - first they would not take any Rolls - but now that Rolls are shipping and reports are being made that Privy's are in the rolls...they all of sudden want Rolls and will even change your order to indicate they want the rolls in your order but they're not sure yet if they want the backordered bags!

    Wow... They really are playing both sides of this to their advantage...all the while...offering only $28 payout for two rolls!

    I could easily make more here on BST selling any found Privy's, all the while spending the rest and still be ahead.

    Not to mention, they are as likely to be $25 coins as the cents are, or as the July 4th quarters are. Anything is possible, but it's unlikely in the intermediate term, given that there are "only" 250K of them, and that people seem interested.

    The Mint didn't blow through 8.75 million of them because people are anxious to pay a premium for something available at face value from a bank. The bank rolls are being sold on eBay, so someone was able to get their hands on them.

    My story was only about one particular buyer, a buyer I might add who is routinely the lowest payer out there - but he was the only one offering during this go around.

    This buyer (PFS), also changed the goalposts after they realized the iron was HOT with this release and they wanted to jump all in, and try to get their sellers to sell, at the earlier agreed upon "low price" they were offering. But once they realized that some of us are on the backorder shipment cycle with the bags, they decided we were not worth it. Further, when they realized I had rolls in my order that they originally did not want, they immediately told me they were interested in my rolls. So, please, don't take PFS as any sort of datapoint. To them, it's just business, as they maximize their profits at the expense of those who sell to them.

    I believe the real market for data points right now (and this could change day by day) is eBay sales. Some of eBay sales, are historic from a percentage perspective of what people are buying some of the in-hand rolls and bags, as well as pre-sale of slabbed coins. As with the July 4th privy quarters - if anyone is lucky enough to get a 68-70 Trump coin - that will be historic from a percentage aspect.

    BST references available on request

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    HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    The back orders will either have privies or they won't. If 10 people report, and none of them have privies, that will be good enough for most people not to bust open their bags and rolls, unless they were going to keep them anyway.

    Because I don't think the Mint accepts returns of coins removed from their packaging. Which would be the bags and rolls in this case.

    The Mint does not mention coins removed from packaging as a condition for not eligible for a return.

    https://usmint.gov/help-center/shipping.html

    Return Policy
    If you're dissatisfied with your purchase for any reason within seven days of receiving your product, you can return the product for a refund. A pre-paid label can be generated through your Account. To return your product, visit your Order History and initiate a return online — or, you can contact our Help Center.

    Further, they say that your return has to be the ENTIRE order - no partial returns:

    We will not accept partial returns or issue partial refunds. For example, if you receive a coin set and one coin is in unacceptable condition, you must return the entire set to receive a refund. The order packslip is required for all returns.
    The U.S. Mint reserves the right to limit or refuse a return, charge a fee for excessive returns, and suspend a customer account with a pattern of excessive returns.

    Now, If I can return a coin because I see damage on it, what's to say I can't return a bag or roll of opened coins because I'm dissatisfied? I could be dissatisfied with anything in the order!

    BST references available on request

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    JBKJBK Posts: 17,882 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 4:05PM

    @HoneyMarket said:

    @NJCoin said:

    The back orders will either have privies or they won't. If 10 people report, and none of them have privies, that will be good enough for most people not to bust open their bags and rolls, unless they were going to keep them anyway.

    Because I don't think the Mint accepts returns of coins removed from their packaging. Which would be the bags and rolls in this case.

    The Mint does not mention coins removed from packaging as a condition for not eligible for a return.

    https://usmint.gov/help-center/shipping.html

    Return Policy
    If you're dissatisfied with your purchase for any reason within seven days of receiving your product, you can return the product for a refund. A pre-paid label can be generated through your Account. To return your product, visit your Order History and initiate a return online — or, you can contact our Help Center.

    Further, they say that your return has to be the ENTIRE order - no partial returns:

    We will not accept partial returns or issue partial refunds. For example, if you receive a coin set and one coin is in unacceptable condition, you must return the entire set to receive a refund. The order packslip is required for all returns.
    The U.S. Mint reserves the right to limit or refuse a return, charge a fee for excessive returns, and suspend a customer account with a pattern of excessive returns.

    Now, If I can return a coin because I see damage on it, what's to say I can't return a bag or roll of opened coins because I'm dissatisfied? I could be dissatisfied with anything in the order!

    From the mint's policies that you posted above:

    The U.S. Mint reserves the right to limit or refuse a return, charge a fee for excessive returns, and suspend a customer account with a pattern of excessive returns.

    I'm going to guess that returning a roll or bag after searching it won't fly with them, but give it a try and let us know. 😃

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    HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JBK said:
    ...but give it a try and let us know. 😃

    Made it too easy for you...Like cherry picking Privy's o:)

    BST references available on request

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    HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:
    I only raised a possibility. A question.

    I don't think it is a real possibility as you have given us no other case where they did that, and that includes the FH medals. We all know the mint has screwed things up at times though (the most recent is the packaging for the Liberty bell Freedom Ringing coins and medals), but this has not been one of them so far.

    It is also not unusual for the mint to not have all product available to immediately ship. many products have gone backorder.

    So it appears you are seeing ghosts where none exist.

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    Mr Lindy Mr Lindy Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Always a pleasure to hear your insights @HalfDime !

    Sadly, I do not bookmark linkys going on 3 computers ago & my handy current in circulation 2026 coinage has dropped off my history. 10 weeks and it seems I did not revisit & link got vaporized. Boo !

    Would you or somebody please re link me to current production mintages for circulating 2026 coinage, please ?

    I'll share a pretty pixs of the underappreciated 1776~2026 Palladium due by Noon tomorrow. My first love it or hate it Palladium Ounce in Unc in a design I find appealing.

    I read I should not put it in my mouth as Palladium is toxic, which was not on my bucket list anyways.

    Very Happy to ask you for the assist !

    Lindy

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    No. Based on what they did with the FH silver privies, the odds are actually better than 50-50.

    I have no idea how you can claim it is better than 50-50 when they took orders for the entire amount, and already know how much they have to be mixed in.

    Didn't you claim they held back 25k silver flowing hair medals for later release?

    That release was an entirely different path than the mint took here, if i remember it accurately. In that case they underproduced the stated limits, and you held on to that they actually struck the entire amount when they didn't.

    With these we know they have struck the entire amount as the production blog says so.

    They struck enough to cover all rolls and bags, so they must have been short on packaging. So you really think the mint would dump all 250,000 privy into the early bags and rolls and just call it a day and leave it at that? Then send out to other half with no privy coins? And you think it is better than 50-50 that they will do it? lol

    Get ready to be disappointed again.

    Is there a slight chance the mint would pull this on us? Yes, but it is very slight and no more. Like being hit with lightning.

    Most likely the coins for the backorder are sitting on a floor at the mint already mixed and waiting for the packaging.

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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 4:25PM

    @HoneyMarket said:

    @NJCoin said:

    The back orders will either have privies or they won't. If 10 people report, and none of them have privies, that will be good enough for most people not to bust open their bags and rolls, unless they were going to keep them anyway.

    Because I don't think the Mint accepts returns of coins removed from their packaging. Which would be the bags and rolls in this case.

    The Mint does not mention coins removed from packaging as a condition for not eligible for a return.

    https://usmint.gov/help-center/shipping.html

    Return Policy
    If you're dissatisfied with your purchase for any reason within seven days of receiving your product, you can return the product for a refund. A pre-paid label can be generated through your Account. To return your product, visit your Order History and initiate a return online — or, you can contact our Help Center.

    Further, they say that your return has to be the ENTIRE order - no partial returns:

    We will not accept partial returns or issue partial refunds. For example, if you receive a coin set and one coin is in unacceptable condition, you must return the entire set to receive a refund. The order packslip is required for all returns.
    The U.S. Mint reserves the right to limit or refuse a return, charge a fee for excessive returns, and suspend a customer account with a pattern of excessive returns.

    Now, If I can return a coin because I see damage on it, what's to say I can't return a bag or roll of opened coins because I'm dissatisfied? I could be dissatisfied with anything in the order!

    Well, I guess we'll see, won't we? I never heard of people removing proof or uncirculated coins from sets, or anything else from their capsule, and returning it.

    This will be a great test case. Because, I promise you, someone will try to return rolls and bags with privies stripped out. Let's see what happens.

    I'm betting the Mint will exercise its right to "refuse a return." And don't bother trying to tell me that only applies to "a pattern of excessive returns." The commas mean each clause can be read apart from the others, if the Mint so chooses.

    I also don't think "damage" will be viewed as a legitimate excuse on circulating coins. The only excuse here would be buyer's remorse. And I think that would necessitate sealed rolls and bags. As I said, we'll see. Maybe you should try it and let us know.

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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HoneyMarket said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @NJCoin said:

    @HalfDime said:

    @NJCoin said:
    Not end of story. They did not have 150K and 50K bags available for sale at launch.

    You take it on faith that was an accident, due to an inability to source both paper rolls and cloth bags ahead of time. I think that is utter nonsense. Agree to disagree. End of story.

    You don't have any evidence to support your side, and I do to support mine.

    The actual production blog and order volumes.

    They struck all the coins, and they took all the orders. You can create a conspiracy theory on how the mint is going to scam customers over this, but anyone who listens to you and sells the backorder over fear there are no privy coins will be unhappy to learn it was all smoke after they start shipping with privy coins.

    Also any product that shows up each day as cancelled orders is quickly bought up, showing many others do not believe it either. And it may actually end up the opposite, where more end up in the last rolls. It is all chance and that is how the mint set it up. Did they do a perfect job of this? No, but it appears random at this point as it should.

    We'll see. My "evidence" is past practice. Yours is a production blog that speaks to the production of 16.4 million coins, without distinguishing privies.

    And a Mint notice that stated that privies would only be going in rolls and bags sold through the website. You have no idea when and how privies were mixed into the 8.5 million other coins to be sold in rolls and bags, or whether that mixing was done exclusively into the population of rolls and bags ready to go at launch.

    Neither do I. We each have no "evidence" at all. Just speculation.

    And mine is not even speculation. Just a question raising a possibility. If mine was nonsense the secondary market buyers would not be hesitant to commit to back ordered coins. They are.

    People taking shots at issue price directly from the Mint "shows" nothing. They can easily be returned if reports later surface that back ordered product contain no privies.

    Actually, I think the secondary market isn't concerned with privy yields. It's not knowing the price of the privies two months out. If they are $25 coins, which they might be, you can only break even at 3 per bag.

    I am only going by this post, which does not seem unreasonable:

    @HoneyMarket said:
    Is anyone else signed up for flipping these to PFS?

    I love how they are slow-rolling this out to determine if any Privy's are reported in the back-ordered bags.

    They are playing both sides - first they would not take any Rolls - but now that Rolls are shipping and reports are being made that Privy's are in the rolls...they all of sudden want Rolls and will even change your order to indicate they want the rolls in your order but they're not sure yet if they want the backordered bags!

    Wow... They really are playing both sides of this to their advantage...all the while...offering only $28 payout for two rolls!

    I could easily make more here on BST selling any found Privy's, all the while spending the rest and still be ahead.

    Not to mention, they are as likely to be $25 coins as the cents are, or as the July 4th quarters are. Anything is possible, but it's unlikely in the intermediate term, given that there are "only" 250K of them, and that people seem interested.

    The Mint didn't blow through 8.75 million of them because people are anxious to pay a premium for something available at face value from a bank. The bank rolls are being sold on eBay, so someone was able to get their hands on them.

    My story was only about one particular buyer, a buyer I might add who is routinely the lowest payer out there - but he was the only one offering during this go around.

    This buyer (PFS), also changed the goalposts after they realized the iron was HOT with this release and they wanted to jump all in, and try to get their sellers to sell, at the earlier agreed upon "low price" they were offering. But once they realized that some of us are on the backorder shipment cycle with the bags, they decided we were not worth it. Further, when they realized I had rolls in my order that they originally did not want, they immediately told me they were interested in my rolls. So, please, don't take PFS as any sort of datapoint. To them, it's just business, as they maximize their profits at the expense of those who sell to them.

    I believe the real market for data points right now (and this could change day by day) is eBay sales. Some of eBay sales, are historic from a percentage perspective of what people are buying some of the in-hand rolls and bags, as well as pre-sale of slabbed coins. As with the July 4th privy quarters - if anyone is lucky enough to get a 68-70 Trump coin - that will be historic from a percentage aspect.

    Understood. There is currently no firm bid for back ordered coins, is there?

  • Options
    HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Question for those who have recently received their Trump bags or rolls:

    Did the Mint require a signature from USPS (if you rcvd your shipment from USPS) on this particular issue/shipment as they have with some other recent releases?

    BST references available on request

  • Options
    NephasthNephasth Posts: 207 ✭✭✭
    edited September 7, 2026 4:50PM

    @HoneyMarket said:
    Question for those who have recently received their Trump bags or rolls:

    Did the Mint require a signature from USPS (if you rcvd your shipment from USPS) on this particular issue/shipment as they have with some other recent releases?

    My 2 rolls and 2 bags shipped together USPS Ground Advantage (signature not required). My Palladium Eagle shipped USPS Ground Advantage Signature (signature required). Both packages arrive tomorrow.

  • Options
    MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 40,091 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Mr Lindy said:
    Would you or somebody please re link me to current production mintages for circulating 2026 coinage, please ?

    https://www.usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures/circulating-coins-production

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • Options
    Mr Lindy Mr Lindy Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Trump bucks at 16.4 million stamped out, doubled the bags & rolls & privies at this point in time.

    Thats the data point I needed to consider keeping or deleting my two baggies minted due to ship October 7th.

    Thank You Very Much !

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    CapgunCapgun Posts: 994 ✭✭✭

    Mintage limit: none

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    HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:
    A legitimate question, based on questionable conduct engaged in the Mint in the past. I am not the only one,

    Yes, you did a good job of scaring some to cancel their orders if that is what you were trying to do.

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    DotStoreDotStore Posts: 936 ✭✭✭✭

    I just checked some reported rolls and bags, and it's puzzling that the same date and just a few seconds apart 2 different people have reported 4 in a bag, and 0 in the next bag. 1 in a roll, and 0 in the second roll -- and in both cases they were timestamped within a few seconds apart.

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    P0CKETCHANGEP0CKETCHANGE Posts: 3,741 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DotStore said:
    I just checked some reported rolls and bags, and it's puzzling that the same date and just a few seconds apart 2 different people have reported 4 in a bag, and 0 in the next bag. 1 in a roll, and 0 in the second roll -- and in both cases they were timestamped within a few seconds apart.

    That's hardly puzzling and can be explained by sheer randomness.

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    DotStoreDotStore Posts: 936 ✭✭✭✭

    Maybe puzzling isn't the right word -- seems like the best we can do is find the earliest and latest dates where the privies are found. Can't wait to see if backordered rolls/bags include them...

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    mbr33mbr33 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DotStore said:
    I just checked some reported rolls and bags, and it's puzzling that the same date and just a few seconds apart 2 different people have reported 4 in a bag, and 0 in the next bag. 1 in a roll, and 0 in the second roll -- and in both cases they were timestamped within a few seconds apart.

    So you're saying I should open another? LOL!

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    DotStoreDotStore Posts: 936 ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 8, 2026 9:00AM

    @mbr33 said:

    @DotStore said:
    I just checked some reported rolls and bags, and it's puzzling that the same date and just a few seconds apart 2 different people have reported 4 in a bag, and 0 in the next bag. 1 in a roll, and 0 in the second roll -- and in both cases they were timestamped within a few seconds apart.

    So you're saying I should open another? LOL!

    Haha! just maybe they will be in the 2nd bag :)
    My order is scheduled to be delivered today -- I plan to open at least one bag -- but maybe both if I don't find any in the first

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    Survivor50Survivor50 Posts: 225 ✭✭✭

    Still processing, are there others? Is it still a volume of orders issue?

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    Batman23Batman23 Posts: 5,496 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Survivor50 said:
    Still processing, are there others? Is it still a volume of orders issue?

    I still have a few rolls in processing. Thanks to the waiting room... all my bags are listed as backorder.

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    HoneyMarketHoneyMarket Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @mbr33 said:
    I know somebody out there is taking notes on date stamps: I opened one bag today and got zero "July 4" privies. The box was date stamped 8/4/26 at 7:29:10

    Are you aware of anyone, either here...or Reddit, or some other coin type forum where someone is compiling and publishing this data. Would def. be interesting data for some to go over...assuming it's somewhat accurate.

    BST references available on request

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    Bundles84Bundles84 Posts: 44 ✭✭✭

    I’ve done very well with this release on eBay. I’m down to my last bag and roll and I don’t know if I should crack them up or hold them. What is everyone else planning on doing without their inventory?

    Successful deals with Weather11am, waverlycoins and Gothat3rs

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    JBKJBK Posts: 17,882 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Bundles84 said:
    I’ve done very well with this release on eBay. I’m down to my last bag and roll and I don’t know if I should crack them up or hold them. What is everyone else planning on doing without their inventory?

    I assume that the market is hottest right now, before millions more coins from backorder are delivered.

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    P0CKETCHANGEP0CKETCHANGE Posts: 3,741 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 8, 2026 10:13AM

    @JBK said:
    I assume that the market is hottest right now, before millions more coins from backorder are delivered.

    The vast majority of the first wave of retail orders hasn’t even delivered yet. They’ll be hitting mailboxes this week. I expect supply to increase significantly.

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    tahbb143tahbb143 Posts: 398 ✭✭✭✭

    @Survivor50 said:
    Still processing, are there others? Is it still a volume of orders issue?

    I had payment issue, so my payments/charges are back in my accts and my purchases are still 'processing', not backordered - was unfortunate that my first-30-second purchases got pushed to the back of the line as it were cuz my bank soft blocked the transactions ¯_(ツ)_/¯

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    tahbb143tahbb143 Posts: 398 ✭✭✭✭

    lol must've been literally as i was typing above that my first bag + roll order shipped

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    mbr33mbr33 Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @HoneyMarket said:

    @mbr33 said:
    I know somebody out there is taking notes on date stamps: I opened one bag today and got zero "July 4" privies. The box was date stamped 8/4/26 at 7:29:10

    Are you aware of anyone, either here...or Reddit, or some other coin type forum where someone is compiling and publishing this data. Would def. be interesting data for some to go over...assuming it's somewhat accurate.

    I'm not yet aware of anyone compiling the information. I know it was asked last week from some who were opening bags and rolls, so I figured I would throw my info into the mix. I think the real question for those on back order is if they'll even have a shot at one.

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    MtW124MtW124 Posts: 591 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just received an email that the second roll I ordered just shipped out of Texas. I really thought that one was going to fall back to back order.

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    mach19mach19 Posts: 5,081 ✭✭✭✭

    2 Rolls.... nuffin 8/14/26 11:29:40 & 11:30:31

    TIN SOLDIERS & NIXON COMING image

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