The gears work but the framing we use is really quite austere. We just rehash definitions and models without even buying brand new two by fours and fasteners.
I for one truly appreciate Sam sharing his thoughts and insight concerning the sixty-one years of modern clad coins. A lot can be learned by reading his helpful messages. I have never been great at math but I must say that even if you have to purchase five $20 1973 mint sets and you have a chance though maybe slim to find one or two 1973 P Ch/Gem Ike’s then you probably ahead of game value wise. Interesting !!
@HIGHLOWLEAVES said:
I for one truly appreciate Sam sharing his thoughts and insight concerning the sixty-one years of modern clad coins. A lot can be learned by reading his helpful messages. I have never been great at math but I must say that even if you have to purchase five $20 1973 mint sets and you have a chance though maybe slim to find one or two 1973 P Ch/Gem Ike’s then you probably ahead of game value wise. Interesting !!
I like the '73 because it's a known quantity. 15 - 20% are fairly nice and a little more than 1% Gem. With a mi9ntage of two million this is ~25,000 Gems and 175,000 nice attractive specimens. The Ikes are chewed up and they all have marking. This date does not tarnish badly and fewer than 10% of the Ikes are so bad they need to be soaked. WYSIWYG.
But what you can't see is that most of these sets were disassembled long ago and it is an ongoing process. There aren't thousands of Gems and tens of thousands of nice choice coins in the sets any longer because they have been sold to the general public as singles over the many decades.
So the question becomes how many of these coins can be sold back into the coin market by the general public when the mint sets are gone? A lot of these coins simply won't be available because they are the source of many of the circulating '73. Ikes. When you see any S mint proof in circulation it probably is a cull hauled off to the bank when a dealer assembles rolls or bags of proofs. They are almost invariably culls. But not BU coins like the '73. These are almost random in quality with a significant skew to cull. They are mostly getting there when owners pass on their collections to younger people or heirs take them to coin shops. Dealers buy this stuff at very low prices and put most of the moderns in the cash register.
The supply of the '73's seems deep but it is an illusion. The functional supply is down to a few hundred Gems and maybe 10,000 chBU when you consider that many 1973 mint sets are not going to be available to the market for many years. There appears to be a squeeze going on in this date as well as the simpler structural shortage.
Everyone is just assuming that there are hoarders sitting on two million nice pristine '73 Ikes just waiting to sell them at grossly inflated prices. This doesn't exist. '73 Ikes were expensive and never ever got under $2 each. It wasn't merely that no one respected them it was that for $2 you could set aside all kinds of better moderns in even better condition. I seriously doubt there are any massive hoards of these. Maybe a few accumulations of 20 or 50 rolls but these won't be Gem or choiced. Some such hoards may have even been cherry picked to send the best in for grading if they exist at all.
The coins are gone. Once the surviving mint sets are gone this will become obvious.
There are other mint set dates that a squeeze might be quite effective but the problem is most of these are prone to tarnish.
@HIGHLOWLEAVES said:
I for one truly appreciate Sam sharing his thoughts and insight concerning the sixty-one years of modern clad coins. A lot can be learned by reading his helpful messages. I have never been great at math but I must say that even if you have to purchase five $20 1973 mint sets and you have a chance though maybe slim to find one or two 1973 P Ch/Gem Ike’s then you probably ahead of game value wise. Interesting !!
You assume that Mint sets are the only source of choice or gem Ikes.
Last week I was getting a tire changed and was flipping through a hunting and fishing magazine. There was a full page print advertisement for a complete 32 coin IKE set in Dansco album for $800. I see the silver value of the ten 40% IKEs is near $200 now. The advertisement says seen elsewhere for $1600 - I have never even seen them for $800 before this.
@davewesen said:
Last week I was getting a tire changed and was flipping through a hunting and fishing magazine. There was a full page print advertisement for a complete 32 coin IKE set in Dansco album for $800. I see the silver value of the ten 40% IKEs is near $200 now. The advertisement says seen elsewhere for $1600 - I have never even seen them for $800 before this.
Full page print ad on a hunting and fishing mag isn't the market value.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@cameonut2011 said:
Sorry I’ve been really busy. Can you summarize in 3-5 sentences current state of the BU roll market 1930s onward?
You are a glutton for punishment.
After reading this thread, I still have no idea on the actual current state of US modern roll pricing. It is after all, a segment covering in the vicinity of 500 date/MM combinations for designs introduced prior to SQ.
Is Grey Sheet a reliable indicator? I’m not a subscriber. Having looked on eBay on multiple occasions, I know the same date/MM/denomination sells with a large variance.
Looking at clad quarters the most, here are a few current completed sales.
Cheapest currently completed sale:
1988-D $20.83 by APMEX (nine sold at this price)
Currently highest priced completed sale:
1982-P $205.50. (Claims it's "BU". I make no claim, other than it's "good enough" for most buyers.)
Multiples for the 1965 from $37 to $130. I don't claim it doesn't include SMS, but the listings doesn't say so. Some might be.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
I was thinking more in terms of how Grey Sheet has changed over time as an indicator of the actual performance, as opposed to so many posts I've read in this thread not indicating anything.
For the 1982, a prior sale a few weeks or month ago was for $319 but it's dropped off the completed sales history I see now.
The others?
I've seen more than a few at prices from $20 to $40. None now but I've also seen roll quantities in the mint set cello packaging too, at somewhat higher prices versus those in wrappers or tubes.
@HIGHLOWLEAVES said:
I for one truly appreciate Sam sharing his thoughts and insight concerning the sixty-one years of modern clad coins. A lot can be learned by reading his helpful messages. I have never been great at math but I must say that even if you have to purchase five $20 1973 mint sets and you have a chance though maybe slim to find one or two 1973 P Ch/Gem Ike’s then you probably ahead of game value wise. Interesting !!
You assume that Mint sets are the only source of choice or gem Ikes.
Yes!
It's less true for Ikes than every other denomination than the cent but modern chBU and Gem coins pretty much only come from mint sets. People didn't save rolls and there are almost none in the marketplace so supply comes from mint sets. BU roll quality tends to be random and random produced few chBU coins. This poor quality is one of the reasons people never saved or collected moderns.
Because of poor quality in later coins and the perception they were common people collected wheat cents, buffalo nickels and silver since 1965.
Even if there were substantial numbers of Gems in BU rolls the demand is chBU rolls and attractive singles and these can consistently be found only in mint sets. This is where the wholesale supply (pathetic aas it is) is coming from. It's where it has always come from but now that supply is wearing thin so it's spotty. Everyone has a bunch of something or none at all so demand is trying to level them out.
I seriously doubt anyone can sell '76 type I Ikes and maintain stock. There are just that few. And the few that can be found are mostly from mint sets or BU rolls of coins that were recently in mint sets.
@davewesen said:
Last week I was getting a tire changed and was flipping through a hunting and fishing magazine. There was a full page print advertisement for a complete 32 coin IKE set in Dansco album for $800. I see the silver value of the ten 40% IKEs is near $200 now. The advertisement says seen elsewhere for $1600 - I have never even seen them for $800 before this.
Full page print ad on a hunting and fishing mag isn't the market value.
This is where the coins are actually going. People take chBU coins and market them to the public at retail prices. It's very lucrative and effort intensive in some cases. But demand ratchets higher even as supplies dry up. People want the coins and find them in hunting and fishing magazines and on Bob Vila's old "This Old House" website. The coins have been being consumed for decades as nobody noticed. Simple attrition has wiped out the supply. The coins started at the original mint set buyer and now reside among the general public, landfill, dust and ashes.
And I know many were saved because they are just a little scarcer than the '31-S which was saved in large quantities
Of course the '05 had many more years of low attrition than the '31-S and it has lower demand so in actuality it's probably about 1/3 as numerous as the '31 in chBU. The '65 on the other hand has had many years of very high attrition in every grade. Many of them looked worn and tired on the day they left the mint. You can imagine there are one thousand seven hundred million nice pristine specimens but this isn't true because they weren't saved. They weren't saved in Unc, they weren't saved in VF, and they weren't saved from destruction.
Using this post of yours to respond to your last one. I'm using it to question how you arrived at the above conclusion.
Is the 1905 dime a known hoard coin? I've never heard it, and according to Google's "all knowing" AI, it's not in Bowers' book either. I have the book, but too cumbersome to try to confirm.
There weren't anywhere near as many collectors in the years after 1905 collecting Barber dimes versus 1965 and later collecting US moderns, regardless of your definition of "collector".
PCGS has graded 429 1905 dimes in all grades, 182 in MS-63 or higher. NGC has graded 301 with a numerical grade with 120 MS-63 or higher.
PCGS graded almost 1000 1965 FDR clad dimes, with almost all MS-64 or better. 166 of the 167 are FB MS-64 or higher. NGC has graded 312, with 125 FT, and the vast majority MS-64 or higher too.
That's MS, not SMS.
For obvious reasons with the relative price being only one, a much higher proportion of 1905 dimes worth grading has been submitted vs. 1965 clad dimes.
There are also far more potential duplicates for the 1905. both proportionately and absolutely. I'd estimate virtually none for the 1965. There is every reason to believe the 1965 dime exists in large to very large multiple to the 1905 in comparable market quality, and no reason to believe it's meaningfully different for any other clad date either.
PCGS Coin Facts estimates 750 MS-60 or higher and 100 MS--65 or higher for the 1905 dime. This may be too low, but unlikely to be that low. I don't pay attention to Coin Facts estimates for clad coinage, as I consider it far too high, but not as low or nowhere near as low as you claim and imply.
If you're going to bring up the strike quality again as you have with this comparison numerous times, you've previously admitted your quality criteria doesn't consistently correlate to TPG grading standards. It has no market relevance economically. Yes, TPG really is the market grading standard.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
I was thinking more in terms of how Grey Sheet has changed over time as an indicator of the actual performance, as opposed to so many posts I've read in this thread not indicating anything.
For the 1982, a prior sale a few weeks or month ago was for $319 but it's dropped off the completed sales history I see now.
The others?
I've seen more than a few at prices from $20 to $40. None now but I've also seen roll quantities in the mint set cello packaging too, at somewhat higher prices versus those in wrappers or tubes.
Quarters are barely affected yet because they aren't selling and most sellers are still trying to stock. Most increases are in other denominations. I've seen strong offers for '67, '69-D, and '71-D. I've seen a few oddball ones for the '88-D.
I believe the market doesn't know common from rare and this is why it's all topsy turvy. There are wholesalers who know what the coins look like but they can't tell common from rare any better than I can. Everybody is guessing as the demand ratchets higher and supply evaporates.
There are just a few common dates like the '72-D and most everything else is tough or tougher. And there are a lot fewer '72-D's than most imagine.
"They weren't saved in Unc, they weren't saved in VF, and they weren't saved from destruction."
There was this thing called "The Great Depression". Lasted for quite a while. I'm sure one could ask copilot what effect it might have had on the condition of coins struck earlier in the century, that managed to survive until today.
@MasonG said:
"They weren't saved in Unc, they weren't saved in VF, and they weren't saved from destruction."
There was this thing called "The Great Depression". Lasted for quite a while. I'm sure one could ask copilot what effect it might have had on the condition of coins struck earlier in the century, that managed to survive until today.
If you explained your point I'm sure I could address it. There has been no depression since 1965 and before 1972 the FED did not rotate their stocks of coins.
Coins used to survive in high grade in storage but have not since 1972. People used to collect coins before during and after the depression but nobody saved coins minted after 1965 intentionally. This means none saved unintentionally or intentionally. And for the first time it began requiring intentional in 1972.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
" People used to collect coins before during and after the depression ..."
People who don't have jobs, are hungry and trying to feed their families don't set aside coins as collectibles. Does this really needed to be pointed out?
@MasonG said:
" People used to collect coins before during and after the depression ..."
People who don't have jobs, are hungry and trying to feed their families don't set aside coins as collectibles. Does this really needed to be pointed out?
I wonder if the Depression actually created more roll hoarding, at least of silver, by wealthy individuals. Since they didn't trust banks, they may have set aside more rolls of silver coins, or gold, as emergency reserves.
And we certainly know that a ridiculous number of rolls of State Quarters were set aside, so hoarding didn't stop at 1965.
I still don't see the problem with this, anyway. The number of BU sets of coins set aside in Whitman albums is already more than the market needs given the fact that you can usually get more for an empty Dansco or Whitman album than a full one for some of those series. LOL. I stopped selling them with the coins in them because it was more cost effective for me to throw the coins in the change bucket and sell the empty one than try to sell the full one.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
.
4,000 uncirculated rolls of cents from the late 1930s and up, at half of "greysheet", and you turned the deal down ?
That doesn't give me much confidence in your coin market observations.
Coins used to survive in high grade in storage but have not since 1972. People used to collect coins before during and after the depression but nobody saved coins minted after 1965 intentionally. This means none saved unintentionally or intentionally. And for the first time it began requiring intentional in 1972.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
.
4,000 uncirculated rolls of cents from the late 1930s and up, at half of "greysheet", and you turned the deal down ?
That doesn't give me much confidence in your coin market observations.
@jmlanzaf said:
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
No. I am referring to offers and bids. If a roll bids for $6 but you can sell the coins retail for $200 then you don't care too much how much more than bid you have to pay. Most modern rolls are not available, especially in quantity, at bid.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
Mint sets are bid at much higher levels than a couple years ago, Most are still a steal but it's no longer possible to be certain of a a market. It requires a great deal of effort to assemble rolls.
But the rolls are being assembled and most of the sets are already gone.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
It's a world market but it does look a little different in different places. There are many reasons for this but most boil down to somewhat cultural differences. Clad was much more popular (to save) in the west, for instance and there are few enough wholesalers that they can have a local an outsized local effect. Postage rates used to be lower for short distance shipping so some wholesalers sucked up vast quantities locally. Old coins are dispersed quite evenly and their demand is universal and spread evenly.
This is unfolding. If you wait until you see far higher prices across the board you've missed the move and if you're waiting for anecdotal evidence like a kid running into a coin shop desperate for a nice chBU '76 nickel it hasn't happened much yet. I've been closely studying thew coins and watching the markets since 1965 or 1972. I've been in this market for a long time. It's changing because there are more and more buyers and sellers.
Remember I've told you for many years that there are enough moderns to create a market because there aren't enough to fill the pipeline. For a dealer to offer coins at retail he must have coins to sell. Even if a dealer can secure a roll of '76 type I Ikes he can not restock at current prices which are already multiples of bid in some cases.
Meanwhile the demand for a nice attractive chBU '76 Ikes keeps going higher and they remain difficult to secure singly or in rolls. Most buyers now days are aware moderns exist in mint exist in excellent quality in mint sets.
This is just something that's happening but when you look all you can see is pieces.
ChBU moderns are trading at retail prices and yes this now includes a significant percentage of surviving mint sets. In 1980 fewer that 1% of 1973 mint sets were being set aside intact for the future. They were being ripped apart. Now days it might be up to 10% being collected or saved. The number isn't so much higher but the percentage is.
.
The market is built on more than half a century of neglect. The coins are gone and not one retailer has a complete stock of BU rolls yet. Nobody can even seem to keep all the mint sets in stock but this might be largely lack of effort because it's not like any are difficult.
All I'm doing is projecting trends and curves. We'll just have to wait to see if higher prices suppress demand but collectibles typically act as a giffin good where higher prices actually increase demand. If someone can't afford 10 or $20 for a modern coin maybe he'll be able to find a cull VG in pocket change. Or buy it on eBay for a few dollars.
@MasonG said:
" People used to collect coins before during and after the depression ..."
People who don't have jobs, are hungry and trying to feed their families don't set aside coins as collectibles. Does this really needed to be pointed out?
You are misled.
Mass coin collecting was born in the great depression when it was invented by B Max Mehl for a country that was out of work.
It was murdered in 1964 by the mint, FED, and Congress to relieve a coin shortage and reborn with states quarters.
How ironic that it was killed to keep the mint from working overtime and depleting silver stockpiles and it's reborn to keep the mint working.
You’re misled. Mass coin collecting began in the Depression because B. Max Mehl invented it for a nation out of work. It was killed in 1964 by the mint, the FED, and Congress to relieve the coin shortage, and reborn with State Quarters. Fundamentals change. The hobby rises and falls with policy, scarcity, and demand — not with whether people have jobs.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
.
4,000 uncirculated rolls of cents from the late 1930s and up, at half of "greysheet", and you turned the deal down ?
That doesn't give me much confidence in your coin market observations.
.
Some of the best performing BU rolls are the older ones and percentage gains o0n later issues are enormous. This accumulation has likely doubled in the last year and are now FAR easier to sell (still difficult). It sounds like a missed 300% profit.
@jmlanzaf said:
I stopped selling them with the coins in them because it was more cost effective for me to throw the coins in the change bucket and sell the empty one than try to sell the full one.
I keep telling people that all those coins sold to the general public are gone.
Moderns began in mint sets were toted to the coin shops who sold them to wholesalers who made sets of coins sold to the general public. When the purchaser passed on his collection was toted back to the coin shop and tossed in the change bucket.
It was the circle of death and the coins are pretty much gone. Supply can't keep up with ongoing demand.
Coins used to survive in high grade in storage but have not since 1972. People used to collect coins before during and after the depression but nobody saved coins minted after 1965 intentionally. This means none saved unintentionally or intentionally. And for the first time it began requiring intentional in 1972.
Assumes facts not in evidence.
This is no court of law and in real life our species defines "evidence" as "any fact that supports what we believe.
It is a fact that the mint and FED instituted FIFO accounting and began rotating their coin stocks in 1972. This event defined the end of coins being saved unintentionally by being lost in vaults. Now all the coins have worn out evenly before they were lost to landfill.
Coins used to survive in high grade in storage but have not since 1972. People used to collect coins before during and after the depression but nobody saved coins minted after 1965 intentionally. This means none saved unintentionally or intentionally. And for the first time it began requiring intentional in 1972.
Assumes facts not in evidence.
This is no court of law and in real life our species defines "evidence" as "any fact that supports what we believe.
So we just make it up as we go along or look for “facts” that support what we want to believe? That’s very unscientific, lacks statistical validity, and is skewed by confirmation bias. How can you claim that no rolls were intentionally saved by anyone? Roll collecting was very popular in the 60s, and there is a reasonable chance that at least some of these collectors continued into the clad era. If no rolls were “intentionally or unintentionally saved” how do you explain the large number of, e.g. 1982 cents variety rolls, rolls of 1995 cents and large number of DDO coins, and the Bicentennial issues?
@cameonut2011 said:
If no rolls were “intentionally or unintentionally saved” how do you explain the large number of, e.g. 1982 cents variety rolls, rolls of 1995 cents and large number of DDO coins, and the Bicentennial issues?
People treat moderns as a monolithic entity. Where in reality layers, strata, and inclusions exist. Just because granite is taken for granted doesn't mean there are lots of Gem. Sieving pocket change for Gems back in the old days was a monumental task. Most real collectors turned to mint sets when they learned this was the only place nice ones could be found. Very few brave and determined people continued to seek nice coins in circulation. Many concentrated on varieties and errors because well made coins were rarely encountered and some years chBU was something of a scarcity. I believe the '82-P was well made by only three die pair and two of these were short lived. Mintage was half a million and as few as "20" may have survived on the market. nice attractive chBU are most unusual because the ones that were saved were of about random quality once you ignore souvenir, sets, Numismatic News sets and Paul and Judy sets as anomalies. These are mostly chBU (only 75% for souvenir). Aggregate numbers are very low.
It doesn't matter how many states coins or 1804 dollars exist to a collectors looking for nice attractive '82-P quarter.
And that's of no interest for someone who desires a circulation strike '66 cent.
@cameonut2011 said:
If no rolls were “intentionally or unintentionally saved” how do you explain the large number of, e.g. 1982 cents variety rolls, rolls of 1995 cents and large number of DDO coins, and the Bicentennial issues?
People treat moderns as a monolithic entity. Where in reality layers, strata, and inclusions exist. Just because granite is taken for granted doesn't mean there are lots of Gem. Sieving pocket change for Gems back in the old days was a monumental task. Most real collectors turned to mint sets when they learned this was the only place nice ones could be found. Very few brave and determined people continued to seek nice coins in circulation. Many concentrated on varieties and errors because well made coins were rarely encountered and some years chBU was something of a scarcity. I believe the '82-P was well made by only three die pair and two of these were short lived. Mintage was half a million and as few as "20" may have survived on the market. nice attractive chBU are most unusual because the ones that were saved were of about random quality once you ignore souvenir, sets, Numismatic News sets and Paul and Judy sets as anomalies. These are mostly chBU (only 75% for souvenir). Aggregate numbers are very low.
It doesn't matter how many states coins or 1804 dollars exist to a collectors looking for nice attractive '82-P quarter.
And that's of no interest for someone who desires a circulation strike '66 cent.
There are hundreds of gem or better 1982 P quarters certified by NGC and PCGS. Do you really contend that only 20 of those are well made? Isn’t that antithetical to the concept of gem and super gem uncirculated?
@cameonut2011 said:
How can you claim that no rolls were intentionally saved by anyone? Roll collecting was very popular in the 60s, and there is a reasonable chance that at least some of these collectors continued into the clad era.
Of course. Lots of '65 rolls were set aside and nearly as many '66 but then everyone figured out these couldn't be sold at any price down the road and most of the rolls already saved were released back into circulation.
BU rolls started showing up in the classified in the early '70's but these rolls had insignificant sales. The largest retailer sold only a bag and a half of the '69-P quarter and told me in 1980 he didn't think he could put together a roll set even if he used his customers list.
The reality is there are fewer rolls now than in 1980. A lot fewer. If you do find a roll (at least for the '69 25c) it might contain no coins that can be sold as a "chBU". The ratty, poorly made, and dull only 20 or 25% of coins made for circulation were "chBU" when they left the mint and time has not been kind because most are gone now after having worn out in circulation. What is left are mint set coins and only '65% of these are chBU after you soak them in acetone. Gems were scarce even in the mint set in 1969 (~.75%) and they are no more common today and hiding under half a century of haze.
@cameonut2011 said:
So we just make it up as we go along or look for “facts” that support what we want to believe? That’s very unscientific, lacks statistical validity, and is skewed by confirmation bias.
>
It's funny really but one man's science is another man's categorical recursion expressed in terms of symbolic math. This is all fine and dandy for understanding processes and predicting the past but it is less useful for seeing the structure of reality and the forces that affect how it plays out. Of course I could be wrong and making a mountain out of a molehill. This is the human condition.
Science is still science with an observer who assumes reality. If the point of science is to make prediction rather than elegant mathematics then mebbe we're not doing it quite right. Maybe assuming the conclusion and seeking evidence and experiment to support it is exactly what leads to paradigm shifts. To each his own. Progress for our species seems to require a single idea in large network of ideas. Nothing has changed but there doesn't appear to be sufficient supply of chBU moderns to meet existing demand.
Science isn’t “made up,” but every framework has its own recursion. Symbolic math is great for modeling processes, yet it often misses the structure of reality and the forces shaping it. If prediction is the point of science, maybe assuming the conclusion and seeking supporting evidence is exactly how paradigms shift. Fundamentals change. And right now the market reality is simple: there aren’t enough chBU moderns to meet demand.
@cameonut2011 said:
There are hundreds of gem or better 1982 P quarters certified by NGC and PCGS. Do you really contend that only 20 of those are well made? Isn’t that antithetical to the concept of gem and super gem uncirculated?
Yes. In my uneducated opinion. I've see the raw material of high grade slabs but NOT the slabs themselves.
One interesting little tidbit might illuminate the problem here. I have it on good opinion that many of the graded coins are from US Mint Souvenir Sets. I have actually laid eyes on a couple hundred of the Philly quarters. This is a reasonably good sample of 2% of mintage. None of these coins have good strikes. Most are from very serviceable dies and all examples are in the first couple hundred thousands strike so die condition is OK. Strikes are also sufficiently robust that most could have been good enough to be Gem . The problem is die alignment is poor and fill is incomplete. Letters are often almost flat especially in "LIBERTY". A relatively high percentage of these are fairly clean. I've actually seen only five sources for Gems and only two examples that their origin was indeterminant (both in slabs).
Nobody was sitting on hundreds of thousands of any set or rolls I've never seen so I assume the specimens in slabs are just the cleanest examples of die pairs I've already seen.
But it simply doesn't matter how you grade '82-P quarters because there were very few saved and most were far too ratty to show up in a high grade slab.
@MasonG said:
There are as many (or few) as there needs to be in order to support his conclusion.
I've said it before but I'm not sure there are any Gems of this date of the mint set standard. Mint set coins pop and are from brand new dies struck under extra tonnage at lower speeds. You can get total die fill on front and back with nice even rims and sometimes even proof like quality. No 1982-P quarters exist like this. None are fully struck and without marking.
An '82-P is a different thing being graded than an '81-D quarter. An '82 is spectacular if it survives in original condition at all. Very few did and the quality of what survived is random. People didn't go out and seek the best specimens to save except for the mint which failed.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
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4,000 uncirculated rolls of cents from the late 1930s and up, at half of "greysheet", and you turned the deal down ?
That doesn't give me much confidence in your coin market observations.
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Have you ever tried to sell them. Shippings a killer when you get to the $20 and under rolls. It's easy to just sit there and make stuff up. Have you ever sold BU rolls of 1960s cents on eBay? Or anywhere else for that matter?
And why do you think the dealer was willing to sell them to me at half Grey? I wasn't buying them off the street. That dealer got them from another dealer who had been trying to sell them for 8 years. Then the dealer who offered them to me sold sold 100 rolls, lost money and was offered to flip them to me.
You don't like me. That's fine. But you don't have to post nonsense that will mislead others.
You can absolutely make money on the told from the 30s. Good luck making money on the rolls from the 50s up.
I've tried. I'm betting you haven't.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
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4,000 uncirculated rolls of cents from the late 1930s and up, at half of "greysheet", and you turned the deal down ?
That doesn't give me much confidence in your coin market observations.
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Some of the best performing BU rolls are the older ones and percentage gains o0n later issues are enormous. This accumulation has likely doubled in the last year and are now FAR easier to sell (still difficult). It sounds like a missed 300% profit.
Given that 2 dealers tried to make money on them - and failed - before trying to flip them to me. You'd be wrong.
It's amazing that people who never tried a thing are so sure that the kettle who did try the thing don't know what they are talking about.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
You can absolutely make money on the told from the 30s. Good luck making money on the rolls from the 50s up.
I bought a large group of BU Lincoln rolls dated from the 30s to the 60s some years ago and attempted to sell them on eBay. The 30s rolls sold easily enough, the 40s and early 50s were a little harder. Late 50s and 60s? Forget about it. After postage and fees, I'd have almost been better off spending them.
@jmlanzaf said:
You can absolutely make money on the told from the 30s. Good luck making money on the rolls from the 50s up.
I bought a large group of BU Lincoln rolls dated from the 30s to the 60s some years ago and attempted to sell them on eBay. The 30s rolls sold easily enough, the 40s and early 50s were a little harder. Late 50s and 60s? Forget about it. After postage and fees, I'd have almost been better off spending them.
Dan Carr and cladking says we're wrong. And apparently so were the two dealers in the chain ahead of me who tried and failed.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
You can absolutely make money on the told from the 30s. Good luck making money on the rolls from the 50s up.
I bought a large group of BU Lincoln rolls dated from the 30s to the 60s some years ago and attempted to sell them on eBay. The 30s rolls sold easily enough, the 40s and early 50s were a little harder. Late 50s and 60s? Forget about it. After postage and fees, I'd have almost been better off spending them.
Dan Carr and cladking says we're wrong. And apparently so were the two dealers in the chain ahead of me who tried and failed.
The dealer I bought the rolls from seemed happy enough to no longer own them.
edited to add... FWIW, my recollection of the deal is that I paid about half of current greysheet for the lot.
Comments
I don't even own a blue sweater.
The picture needs a few more gadgets and (rube goldberg) devices and a little less clutter.
Any offspring is still theoretical.
The gears work but the framing we use is really quite austere. We just rehash definitions and models without even buying brand new two by fours and fasteners.
I for one truly appreciate Sam sharing his thoughts and insight concerning the sixty-one years of modern clad coins. A lot can be learned by reading his helpful messages. I have never been great at math but I must say that even if you have to purchase five $20 1973 mint sets and you have a chance though maybe slim to find one or two 1973 P Ch/Gem Ike’s then you probably ahead of game value wise. Interesting !!
I like the '73 because it's a known quantity. 15 - 20% are fairly nice and a little more than 1% Gem. With a mi9ntage of two million this is ~25,000 Gems and 175,000 nice attractive specimens. The Ikes are chewed up and they all have marking. This date does not tarnish badly and fewer than 10% of the Ikes are so bad they need to be soaked. WYSIWYG.
But what you can't see is that most of these sets were disassembled long ago and it is an ongoing process. There aren't thousands of Gems and tens of thousands of nice choice coins in the sets any longer because they have been sold to the general public as singles over the many decades.
So the question becomes how many of these coins can be sold back into the coin market by the general public when the mint sets are gone? A lot of these coins simply won't be available because they are the source of many of the circulating '73. Ikes. When you see any S mint proof in circulation it probably is a cull hauled off to the bank when a dealer assembles rolls or bags of proofs. They are almost invariably culls. But not BU coins like the '73. These are almost random in quality with a significant skew to cull. They are mostly getting there when owners pass on their collections to younger people or heirs take them to coin shops. Dealers buy this stuff at very low prices and put most of the moderns in the cash register.
The supply of the '73's seems deep but it is an illusion. The functional supply is down to a few hundred Gems and maybe 10,000 chBU when you consider that many 1973 mint sets are not going to be available to the market for many years. There appears to be a squeeze going on in this date as well as the simpler structural shortage.
Everyone is just assuming that there are hoarders sitting on two million nice pristine '73 Ikes just waiting to sell them at grossly inflated prices. This doesn't exist. '73 Ikes were expensive and never ever got under $2 each. It wasn't merely that no one respected them it was that for $2 you could set aside all kinds of better moderns in even better condition. I seriously doubt there are any massive hoards of these. Maybe a few accumulations of 20 or 50 rolls but these won't be Gem or choiced. Some such hoards may have even been cherry picked to send the best in for grading if they exist at all.
The coins are gone. Once the surviving mint sets are gone this will become obvious.
There are other mint set dates that a squeeze might be quite effective but the problem is most of these are prone to tarnish.
You assume that Mint sets are the only source of choice or gem Ikes.
Last week I was getting a tire changed and was flipping through a hunting and fishing magazine. There was a full page print advertisement for a complete 32 coin IKE set in Dansco album for $800. I see the silver value of the ten 40% IKEs is near $200 now. The advertisement says seen elsewhere for $1600 - I have never even seen them for $800 before this.
Full page print ad on a hunting and fishing mag isn't the market value.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'll bet Copilot said that with a straight face.
Oh, the irony....
After reading this thread, I still have no idea on the actual current state of US modern roll pricing. It is after all, a segment covering in the vicinity of 500 date/MM combinations for designs introduced prior to SQ.
Is Grey Sheet a reliable indicator? I’m not a subscriber. Having looked on eBay on multiple occasions, I know the same date/MM/denomination sells with a large variance.
Looking at clad quarters the most, here are a few current completed sales.
Cheapest currently completed sale:
1988-D $20.83 by APMEX (nine sold at this price)
Currently highest priced completed sale:
1982-P $205.50. (Claims it's "BU". I make no claim, other than it's "good enough" for most buyers.)
Multiples for the 1965 from $37 to $130. I don't claim it doesn't include SMS, but the listings doesn't say so. Some might be.
My year-old greysheet shows these prices:
1988-D: $18
1982-P: $235
1965: $100
1965 SMS: $30
Seems pretty close to what you reported, even though it's not current.
I was thinking more in terms of how Grey Sheet has changed over time as an indicator of the actual performance, as opposed to so many posts I've read in this thread not indicating anything.
For the 1982, a prior sale a few weeks or month ago was for $319 but it's dropped off the completed sales history I see now.
The others?
I've seen more than a few at prices from $20 to $40. None now but I've also seen roll quantities in the mint set cello packaging too, at somewhat higher prices versus those in wrappers or tubes.
Yes!
It's less true for Ikes than every other denomination than the cent but modern chBU and Gem coins pretty much only come from mint sets. People didn't save rolls and there are almost none in the marketplace so supply comes from mint sets. BU roll quality tends to be random and random produced few chBU coins. This poor quality is one of the reasons people never saved or collected moderns.
Because of poor quality in later coins and the perception they were common people collected wheat cents, buffalo nickels and silver since 1965.
Even if there were substantial numbers of Gems in BU rolls the demand is chBU rolls and attractive singles and these can consistently be found only in mint sets. This is where the wholesale supply (pathetic aas it is) is coming from. It's where it has always come from but now that supply is wearing thin so it's spotty. Everyone has a bunch of something or none at all so demand is trying to level them out.
I seriously doubt anyone can sell '76 type I Ikes and maintain stock. There are just that few. And the few that can be found are mostly from mint sets or BU rolls of coins that were recently in mint sets.
This is where the coins are actually going. People take chBU coins and market them to the public at retail prices. It's very lucrative and effort intensive in some cases. But demand ratchets higher even as supplies dry up. People want the coins and find them in hunting and fishing magazines and on Bob Vila's old "This Old House" website. The coins have been being consumed for decades as nobody noticed. Simple attrition has wiped out the supply. The coins started at the original mint set buyer and now reside among the general public, landfill, dust and ashes.
We merely hum about the same frequency. We are not exclusive and it has made clear it seeks the hum where it can get it.
So do I.
Using this post of yours to respond to your last one. I'm using it to question how you arrived at the above conclusion.
Is the 1905 dime a known hoard coin? I've never heard it, and according to Google's "all knowing" AI, it's not in Bowers' book either. I have the book, but too cumbersome to try to confirm.
There weren't anywhere near as many collectors in the years after 1905 collecting Barber dimes versus 1965 and later collecting US moderns, regardless of your definition of "collector".
PCGS has graded 429 1905 dimes in all grades, 182 in MS-63 or higher. NGC has graded 301 with a numerical grade with 120 MS-63 or higher.
PCGS graded almost 1000 1965 FDR clad dimes, with almost all MS-64 or better. 166 of the 167 are FB MS-64 or higher. NGC has graded 312, with 125 FT, and the vast majority MS-64 or higher too.
That's MS, not SMS.
For obvious reasons with the relative price being only one, a much higher proportion of 1905 dimes worth grading has been submitted vs. 1965 clad dimes.
There are also far more potential duplicates for the 1905. both proportionately and absolutely. I'd estimate virtually none for the 1965. There is every reason to believe the 1965 dime exists in large to very large multiple to the 1905 in comparable market quality, and no reason to believe it's meaningfully different for any other clad date either.
PCGS Coin Facts estimates 750 MS-60 or higher and 100 MS--65 or higher for the 1905 dime. This may be too low, but unlikely to be that low. I don't pay attention to Coin Facts estimates for clad coinage, as I consider it far too high, but not as low or nowhere near as low as you claim and imply.
If you're going to bring up the strike quality again as you have with this comparison numerous times, you've previously admitted your quality criteria doesn't consistently correlate to TPG grading standards. It has no market relevance economically. Yes, TPG really is the market grading standard.
Quarters are barely affected yet because they aren't selling and most sellers are still trying to stock. Most increases are in other denominations. I've seen strong offers for '67, '69-D, and '71-D. I've seen a few oddball ones for the '88-D.
I believe the market doesn't know common from rare and this is why it's all topsy turvy. There are wholesalers who know what the coins look like but they can't tell common from rare any better than I can. Everybody is guessing as the demand ratchets higher and supply evaporates.
There are just a few common dates like the '72-D and most everything else is tough or tougher. And there are a lot fewer '72-D's than most imagine.
"They weren't saved in Unc, they weren't saved in VF, and they weren't saved from destruction."
There was this thing called "The Great Depression". Lasted for quite a while. I'm sure one could ask copilot what effect it might have had on the condition of coins struck earlier in the century, that managed to survive until today.
If you explained your point I'm sure I could address it. There has been no depression since 1965 and before 1972 the FED did not rotate their stocks of coins.
Coins used to survive in high grade in storage but have not since 1972. People used to collect coins before during and after the depression but nobody saved coins minted after 1965 intentionally. This means none saved unintentionally or intentionally. And for the first time it began requiring intentional in 1972.
There is a wide variance. Of course, cladking only reports the highest asks (not even sales). But as someone with BU rolls who has tried to sell BU rolls, I'm not buying it. Lol. Literally, I turned down a BU Lincoln roll deal at HALF greysheet. 4000 rolls, starting in the late 1930s.
If anyone has been following my 500 2026 mint sets, you know I'm not afraid to take a shot. But BU rolls and 1970-2000 mint/proof sets just aren't worth it. Local dealer would sell me every mint set that walks in for 20-25% back of grey. I've refused the deal multiple times so he sells them to another guy at 30 back and buys them at 40 back.
All I know is that the world is keep hearing about in this thread does not exist in upstate NY or on ebay, at least for me.
If anyone wants mint/proof sets at 15% back of Grey, let me know. I'll let the guy know I'm in. But, like all of these deals, you buy all or none. You can't cherry pick.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
" People used to collect coins before during and after the depression ..."
People who don't have jobs, are hungry and trying to feed their families don't set aside coins as collectibles. Does this really needed to be pointed out?
I wonder if the Depression actually created more roll hoarding, at least of silver, by wealthy individuals. Since they didn't trust banks, they may have set aside more rolls of silver coins, or gold, as emergency reserves.
And we certainly know that a ridiculous number of rolls of State Quarters were set aside, so hoarding didn't stop at 1965.
I still don't see the problem with this, anyway. The number of BU sets of coins set aside in Whitman albums is already more than the market needs given the fact that you can usually get more for an empty Dansco or Whitman album than a full one for some of those series. LOL. I stopped selling them with the coins in them because it was more cost effective for me to throw the coins in the change bucket and sell the empty one than try to sell the full one.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
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4,000 uncirculated rolls of cents from the late 1930s and up, at half of "greysheet", and you turned the deal down ?
That doesn't give me much confidence in your coin market observations.
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Assumes facts not in evidence.
I’m interested in the pre-1975 stuff.
I’d love to cherry some 1972 DDOs or hoard wheat cent rolls.
No. I am referring to offers and bids. If a roll bids for $6 but you can sell the coins retail for $200 then you don't care too much how much more than bid you have to pay. Most modern rolls are not available, especially in quantity, at bid.
Mint sets are bid at much higher levels than a couple years ago, Most are still a steal but it's no longer possible to be certain of a a market. It requires a great deal of effort to assemble rolls.
But the rolls are being assembled and most of the sets are already gone.
It's a world market but it does look a little different in different places. There are many reasons for this but most boil down to somewhat cultural differences. Clad was much more popular (to save) in the west, for instance and there are few enough wholesalers that they can have a local an outsized local effect. Postage rates used to be lower for short distance shipping so some wholesalers sucked up vast quantities locally. Old coins are dispersed quite evenly and their demand is universal and spread evenly.
This is unfolding. If you wait until you see far higher prices across the board you've missed the move and if you're waiting for anecdotal evidence like a kid running into a coin shop desperate for a nice chBU '76 nickel it hasn't happened much yet. I've been closely studying thew coins and watching the markets since 1965 or 1972. I've been in this market for a long time. It's changing because there are more and more buyers and sellers.
Remember I've told you for many years that there are enough moderns to create a market because there aren't enough to fill the pipeline. For a dealer to offer coins at retail he must have coins to sell. Even if a dealer can secure a roll of '76 type I Ikes he can not restock at current prices which are already multiples of bid in some cases.
Meanwhile the demand for a nice attractive chBU '76 Ikes keeps going higher and they remain difficult to secure singly or in rolls. Most buyers now days are aware moderns exist in mint exist in excellent quality in mint sets.
This is just something that's happening but when you look all you can see is pieces.
ChBU moderns are trading at retail prices and yes this now includes a significant percentage of surviving mint sets. In 1980 fewer that 1% of 1973 mint sets were being set aside intact for the future. They were being ripped apart. Now days it might be up to 10% being collected or saved. The number isn't so much higher but the percentage is.
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The market is built on more than half a century of neglect. The coins are gone and not one retailer has a complete stock of BU rolls yet. Nobody can even seem to keep all the mint sets in stock but this might be largely lack of effort because it's not like any are difficult.
All I'm doing is projecting trends and curves. We'll just have to wait to see if higher prices suppress demand but collectibles typically act as a giffin good where higher prices actually increase demand. If someone can't afford 10 or $20 for a modern coin maybe he'll be able to find a cull VG in pocket change. Or buy it on eBay for a few dollars.
You are misled.
Mass coin collecting was born in the great depression when it was invented by B Max Mehl for a country that was out of work.
It was murdered in 1964 by the mint, FED, and Congress to relieve a coin shortage and reborn with states quarters.
How ironic that it was killed to keep the mint from working overtime and depleting silver stockpiles and it's reborn to keep the mint working.
Fundamentals change!
Copilot-
You’re misled. Mass coin collecting began in the Depression because B. Max Mehl invented it for a nation out of work. It was killed in 1964 by the mint, the FED, and Congress to relieve the coin shortage, and reborn with State Quarters. Fundamentals change. The hobby rises and falls with policy, scarcity, and demand — not with whether people have jobs.
Some of the best performing BU rolls are the older ones and percentage gains o0n later issues are enormous. This accumulation has likely doubled in the last year and are now FAR easier to sell (still difficult). It sounds like a missed 300% profit.
I keep telling people that all those coins sold to the general public are gone.
Moderns began in mint sets were toted to the coin shops who sold them to wholesalers who made sets of coins sold to the general public. When the purchaser passed on his collection was toted back to the coin shop and tossed in the change bucket.
It was the circle of death and the coins are pretty much gone. Supply can't keep up with ongoing demand.
This is no court of law and in real life our species defines "evidence" as "any fact that supports what we believe.
It is a fact that the mint and FED instituted FIFO accounting and began rotating their coin stocks in 1972. This event defined the end of coins being saved unintentionally by being lost in vaults. Now all the coins have worn out evenly before they were lost to landfill.
Copilot-
That’s the hinge. Before 1972, vault inertia saved coins; after 1972, nothing did.
So we just make it up as we go along or look for “facts” that support what we want to believe? That’s very unscientific, lacks statistical validity, and is skewed by confirmation bias. How can you claim that no rolls were intentionally saved by anyone? Roll collecting was very popular in the 60s, and there is a reasonable chance that at least some of these collectors continued into the clad era. If no rolls were “intentionally or unintentionally saved” how do you explain the large number of, e.g. 1982 cents variety rolls, rolls of 1995 cents and large number of DDO coins, and the Bicentennial issues?
People treat moderns as a monolithic entity. Where in reality layers, strata, and inclusions exist. Just because granite is taken for granted doesn't mean there are lots of Gem. Sieving pocket change for Gems back in the old days was a monumental task. Most real collectors turned to mint sets when they learned this was the only place nice ones could be found. Very few brave and determined people continued to seek nice coins in circulation. Many concentrated on varieties and errors because well made coins were rarely encountered and some years chBU was something of a scarcity. I believe the '82-P was well made by only three die pair and two of these were short lived. Mintage was half a million and as few as "20" may have survived on the market. nice attractive chBU are most unusual because the ones that were saved were of about random quality once you ignore souvenir, sets, Numismatic News sets and Paul and Judy sets as anomalies. These are mostly chBU (only 75% for souvenir). Aggregate numbers are very low.
It doesn't matter how many states coins or 1804 dollars exist to a collectors looking for nice attractive '82-P quarter.
And that's of no interest for someone who desires a circulation strike '66 cent.
PCGS> @cladking said:
There are hundreds of gem or better 1982 P quarters certified by NGC and PCGS. Do you really contend that only 20 of those are well made? Isn’t that antithetical to the concept of gem and super gem uncirculated?
Of course. Lots of '65 rolls were set aside and nearly as many '66 but then everyone figured out these couldn't be sold at any price down the road and most of the rolls already saved were released back into circulation.
BU rolls started showing up in the classified in the early '70's but these rolls had insignificant sales. The largest retailer sold only a bag and a half of the '69-P quarter and told me in 1980 he didn't think he could put together a roll set even if he used his customers list.
The reality is there are fewer rolls now than in 1980. A lot fewer. If you do find a roll (at least for the '69 25c) it might contain no coins that can be sold as a "chBU". The ratty, poorly made, and dull only 20 or 25% of coins made for circulation were "chBU" when they left the mint and time has not been kind because most are gone now after having worn out in circulation. What is left are mint set coins and only '65% of these are chBU after you soak them in acetone. Gems were scarce even in the mint set in 1969 (~.75%) and they are no more common today and hiding under half a century of haze.
>
It's funny really but one man's science is another man's categorical recursion expressed in terms of symbolic math. This is all fine and dandy for understanding processes and predicting the past but it is less useful for seeing the structure of reality and the forces that affect how it plays out. Of course I could be wrong and making a mountain out of a molehill. This is the human condition.
Science is still science with an observer who assumes reality. If the point of science is to make prediction rather than elegant mathematics then mebbe we're not doing it quite right. Maybe assuming the conclusion and seeking evidence and experiment to support it is exactly what leads to paradigm shifts. To each his own. Progress for our species seems to require a single idea in large network of ideas. Nothing has changed but there doesn't appear to be sufficient supply of chBU moderns to meet existing demand.
Copilot (still humming along)-
Science isn’t “made up,” but every framework has its own recursion. Symbolic math is great for modeling processes, yet it often misses the structure of reality and the forces shaping it. If prediction is the point of science, maybe assuming the conclusion and seeking supporting evidence is exactly how paradigms shift. Fundamentals change. And right now the market reality is simple: there aren’t enough chBU moderns to meet demand.
There are as many (or few) as there needs to be in order to support his conclusion.
Yes. In my uneducated opinion. I've see the raw material of high grade slabs but NOT the slabs themselves.
One interesting little tidbit might illuminate the problem here. I have it on good opinion that many of the graded coins are from US Mint Souvenir Sets. I have actually laid eyes on a couple hundred of the Philly quarters. This is a reasonably good sample of 2% of mintage. None of these coins have good strikes. Most are from very serviceable dies and all examples are in the first couple hundred thousands strike so die condition is OK. Strikes are also sufficiently robust that most could have been good enough to be Gem . The problem is die alignment is poor and fill is incomplete. Letters are often almost flat especially in "LIBERTY". A relatively high percentage of these are fairly clean. I've actually seen only five sources for Gems and only two examples that their origin was indeterminant (both in slabs).
Nobody was sitting on hundreds of thousands of any set or rolls I've never seen so I assume the specimens in slabs are just the cleanest examples of die pairs I've already seen.
But it simply doesn't matter how you grade '82-P quarters because there were very few saved and most were far too ratty to show up in a high grade slab.
I've said it before but I'm not sure there are any Gems of this date of the mint set standard. Mint set coins pop and are from brand new dies struck under extra tonnage at lower speeds. You can get total die fill on front and back with nice even rims and sometimes even proof like quality. No 1982-P quarters exist like this. None are fully struck and without marking.
An '82-P is a different thing being graded than an '81-D quarter. An '82 is spectacular if it survives in original condition at all. Very few did and the quality of what survived is random. People didn't go out and seek the best specimens to save except for the mint which failed.
Clean coins are nice. They are not common.
Have you ever tried to sell them. Shippings a killer when you get to the $20 and under rolls. It's easy to just sit there and make stuff up. Have you ever sold BU rolls of 1960s cents on eBay? Or anywhere else for that matter?
And why do you think the dealer was willing to sell them to me at half Grey? I wasn't buying them off the street. That dealer got them from another dealer who had been trying to sell them for 8 years. Then the dealer who offered them to me sold sold 100 rolls, lost money and was offered to flip them to me.
You don't like me. That's fine. But you don't have to post nonsense that will mislead others.
You can absolutely make money on the told from the 30s. Good luck making money on the rolls from the 50s up.
I've tried. I'm betting you haven't.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Given that 2 dealers tried to make money on them - and failed - before trying to flip them to me. You'd be wrong.
It's amazing that people who never tried a thing are so sure that the kettle who did try the thing don't know what they are talking about.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Well, since he claims that evidence=confirmation bias...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I bought a large group of BU Lincoln rolls dated from the 30s to the 60s some years ago and attempted to sell them on eBay. The 30s rolls sold easily enough, the 40s and early 50s were a little harder. Late 50s and 60s? Forget about it. After postage and fees, I'd have almost been better off spending them.
Dan Carr and cladking says we're wrong. And apparently so were the two dealers in the chain ahead of me who tried and failed.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The dealer I bought the rolls from seemed happy enough to no longer own them.
edited to add... FWIW, my recollection of the deal is that I paid about half of current greysheet for the lot.
I’m seeing unsupported opinions. I haven’t seen the evidence.
11 pages of it. Lol
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.