@mrhighgrade said:
I received an order confirmation email from The Mint and a minute later another email telling that my order can't be fulfilled. When I check The Mint's website it says that my order is processing. Very strange.
You have a credit card issue. The mint had a number of credit cards that did not go thru today.
You need to call the number on the email and get your payment fixed or you will not get your order. Best to call early in the morning before on sales at 12:00 or later in the evening.
I was going to tell him the same thing. I had this happen earlier this year. Glad I called when I did.
@Coin Finder said:
So is the US mint strict on the 250,000 Trump privies they’re only gonna make 250,000 and that’s it?
That would be my guess. Err, I mean prediction. Hope? Assumption? Let’s ask NJ which word is proper here..
They can't very well strike more on July 4th.
True, but kind of like First Day of Issue that can be submitted within a week of release, or First Strike that has nothing to do with either first or strike, they can back date whatever they want. After all, it's a privy mark, not a certified date of manufacture. It can be whatever they want it to be.
@NJCoin said:
The extended waiting room suggests, however, that something was indeed going on today beyond regular collectors chasing 8.75 million Trump coins. There is no way that getting burned on a delayed $20K return would keep people away from a $400 flip if they knew about it and had someone to flip it to.
if the mint thinks they have stopped the bots, this is not the product to judge by.
Who knows? The website was jammed all day, and yet people were able to order for hours on end.
Something was different today. We just have no way to know whether it was a temporary bot fix, a permanent one, or an absence of bots altogether.
@JBK said:
My guess is that the coins have been minted and the backorder is due to packaging. In that scenario, the privies might already be mixed in with the raw pile of coins.
Back when they minted the presidential dollars (and maybe for the innovation dollars as well) they had the entire run completed before they put them on sale. I would not be surprised if they did the same with these.
You "hope." Because you have no basis for a "guess."
OTOH, if they stay true to form, they will have over seeded the first run, as they did with the FH silver medals, in order to throw an additional prize to the ABPP buyers. Of course, with the FH silver medals, there never was a back order, but they also did not announce at the time that 75K was really only ever going to be 50K, even though they certainly knew that at the time. Because they seeded all 1794 privies in the first and only 50K.
We'll never know for sure, unless they affirmatively tell us one way or the other, since there is no guarantee what any individual bag or roll will contain, no matter they do. But we'll have a good idea if people here open back ordered bags and rolls and report whether or not they received privies.
And the whole reason people are even questioning this in the first place is due to the games they have played in the past with things like this. Always for the benefit of the Big Boys. Always at the expense of small retail. Until we see otherwise, the concern is legitimate, regardless of what would or would not surprise you.
Because, sure, they could absolutely do exactly what you are guessing they will do. They could also do the exact opposite. You have no way to know. Neither do I. All we have is what they have done in the past.
As @jwitten already pointed out, I dont need no stinkin' basis to make a guess.
But, aside from that, I did have a basis. I mentioned the situation with the presidential dollars as precedent.
Furthermore, these dollar coins were in production two months ago. I doubt that the mint is setting aside a production line to make these dollars for months at a time.
So, in summary, I didn't need a basis for my guess, but I had one anyway. I'm double indemnified. 😎
Great. You have a basis. Doesn't mean it's valid.
As I already said, your guess would make perfect sense, assuming the Mint actually wants to fairly distribute these. The last time they did something like this, they intentionally short minted, mislead everyone, including Coin World, about what they were doing, but somehow managed to take care of large dealers.
No reason they might not have similarly seeded the 250K into what they already packaged, rather than holding any back for later seeding. This possibility, based on what they have done in the past, not a "guess," based on what they could do this time, is precisely why people are asking the question.
So, we'll see. I have no "guess." I'm just calling balls and strikes.
There you go again, moving the goalposts.
The original issue you had was your claim that I had no basis for making a guess, and now you're saying that my basis does not mean that my guess is valid.
I never insisted that it was necessarily valid. It was a guess, not a prediction or guarantee.
Yes. I was just trying to be gracious. Not move a goalpost. An invalid basis is, by definition, not a valid basis.
Your guess is your guess. It is based on nothing other than your hope.
I'm quite sure that you are correct insofar as production for the year is likely done. This tells us nothing at all about what they are doing with the privies.
Either they held them back, or they didn't. The last time, they didn't.
They short minted, didn't own up to it, seeded the privies among what they already produced, and called it a day. Even though there was overwhelming demand for the missing 25K medals.
So, this time, either they have a bunch of privies waiting to be seeded into the coins that have not yet been rolled and bagged, or they don't.
You have a guess. Based on nothing.
This is laughable. You regularly make assurances, insistences, even promises, based on nothing.
Like when you promised us that the mint booth at the FUN show would not be open on the National Day of Mourning for Jimmy Carter. You promised, based on nothing, and were wrong.
I offered a guess based on prior precedent. That's better than promises based on nothing.
You're already wrong about demand for this coin, the timefrane for a sellout, and whether or not they would be released for circulation. But why stop there?
FWIW
Sounds like prediction to me. Not a statement of fact, but not nothing either.
To be fair, he literally said "My guess is..."
Correct. And then said that it wasn't a prediction.
Go back and take a long hard look at the definition you posted, and then explain, for the benefit of those less erudite and educated than you, the difference between prediction and "opinion, estimate or answer given without having all the facts or proof."
I can't wait to see how you tease that out. Because I also happen to have access to a Google machine.
@Bundles84 said:
Let’s go!!! There has to be at least a few privy coins in here lol!
what're ya waiting for? open em up!
genuinely very curious what you discover through this experiment; privies per bag/roll, how many 0 privy bags/rolls, etc
my guess is 3 privies across all 16 bags/rolls ... maybe 2
Opened 2 bags…no privies 😡😡😡…if I another one and don’t get any I’m selling the rest lol
Are you serious? If so, that suggests the distribution was not random, given how low the odds are of going 0 for 200 when the expected random value is 5.7.
@Bundles84 said:
Let’s go!!! There has to be at least a few privy coins in here lol!
what're ya waiting for? open em up!
genuinely very curious what you discover through this experiment; privies per bag/roll, how many 0 privy bags/rolls, etc
my guess is 3 privies across all 16 bags/rolls ... maybe 2
Opened 2 bags…no privies 😡😡😡…if I another one and don’t get any I’m selling the rest lol
Were there any date stamps on the boxes you opened?
Unfortunately, date stamps aren't going to tell you anything if they either just did not do a good job of mixing the coins before packaging them, or if they intentionally over seeded the coins going out to ABPP. If it's the former, while people were joking about it earlier in the thread, you could literally have thousands of bags overflowing with privies and thousands of others with none that were all packed at the exact same date and time.
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
Exactly as happened the last time with the FH silver medals, when ABPP received an allocation based on a mintage of 75K when the true mintage was 50K, and when privies were then seeded in the 50K, with none held back for the 25K that were never going to be made.
@Bundles84 said:
Let’s go!!! There has to be at least a few privy coins in here lol!
what're ya waiting for? open em up!
genuinely very curious what you discover through this experiment; privies per bag/roll, how many 0 privy bags/rolls, etc
my guess is 3 privies across all 16 bags/rolls ... maybe 2
Opened 2 bags…no privies 😡😡😡…if I another one and don’t get any I’m selling the rest lol
Were there any date stamps on the boxes you opened?
Unfortunately, date stamps aren't going to tell you anything if they either just did not do a good job of mixing the coins before packaging them, or if they intentionally over seeded the coins going out to ABPP. If it's the former, while people were joking about it earlier in the thread, you could literally have thousands of bags overflowing with privies and thousands of others with none that were all packed at the exact same date and time.
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
Exactly as happened the last time with the FH silver medals, when ABPP received an allocation based on a mintage of 75K when the true mintage was 50K, and when privies were then seeded in the 50K, with none held back for the 25K that were never going to be made.
So far, everyone who has reported today is averaging better than 2.86 per 100.
Are you making a guess? What is your basis for this prediction?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@NJCoin said:
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
You are jumping through a lot of hoops to draw that conclusion based on one person getting skunked. However, I agree with you, but I suspect it occurred for a different reason.
The mint did the laziest way to insert these randomly, and that is the extent of it. There is nothing else to consider.
This is going to go to the full mintage, so everyone who gets skunked will mean someone else will get twice as many as they should. Welcome to the US Mint.
@HalfDime said:
This is going to go to the full mintage, so everyone who gets skunked will mean someone else will get twice as many as they should. Welcome to the US Mint.
@mrhighgrade said:
I received an order confirmation email from The Mint and a minute later another email telling that my order can't be fulfilled. When I check The Mint's website it says that my order is processing. Very strange.
You have a credit card issue. The mint had a number of credit cards that did not go thru today.
You need to call the number on the email and get your payment fixed or you will not get your order. Best to call early in the morning before on sales at 12:00 or later in the evening.
Thanks for the tip I really appreciate it, and I have been calling them, but I haven't been able to get through to a live agent.
@Bundles84 said:
Let’s go!!! There has to be at least a few privy coins in here lol!
what're ya waiting for? open em up!
genuinely very curious what you discover through this experiment; privies per bag/roll, how many 0 privy bags/rolls, etc
my guess is 3 privies across all 16 bags/rolls ... maybe 2
Opened 2 bags…no privies 😡😡😡…if I another one and don’t get any I’m selling the rest lol
Were there any date stamps on the boxes you opened?
Unfortunately, date stamps aren't going to tell you anything if they either just did not do a good job of mixing the coins before packaging them, or if they intentionally over seeded the coins going out to ABPP. If it's the former, while people were joking about it earlier in the thread, you could literally have thousands of bags overflowing with privies and thousands of others with none that were all packed at the exact same date and time.
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
Exactly as happened the last time with the FH silver medals, when ABPP received an allocation based on a mintage of 75K when the true mintage was 50K, and when privies were then seeded in the 50K, with none held back for the 25K that were never going to be made.
So far, everyone who has reported today is averaging better than 2.86 per 100.
Are you making a guess? What is your basis for this prediction?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
None. Not enough info.
I always thought we'd see 2.86 per 100 on what's going out now, because that will still result in almost 40K for the Big Boys. My only question was what would happen with the back orders.
Which is what the guesses and predictions were all about. I was pretty clear that I was only asking questions. Not predicting anything. @Bundles84's report, if it's real, calls that into question.
I do, however, appreciate how you sidestepped my question after helpfully providing a definition for "guess" that nicely corresponded with my understanding.
@NJCoin said:
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
You are jumping through a lot of hoops to draw that conclusion based on one person getting skunked. However, I agree with you, but I suspect it occurred for a different reason.
The mint did the laziest way to insert these randomly, and that is the extent of it. There is nothing else to consider.
Not at all. I very clearly stated that it might not be real, and that, even if it is, it could be an outlier. That said, if it IS real, and it's NOT an outlier, then maybe something else is going on.
No hoops at all, because I readily admit that one data point means nothing. Based on other reports so far, the Mint might very well have done a decent job in randomizing the placement.
My hoops and debate did not involve the one person. It involved what's going to happen with the back orders. And I have also said there that @JBK might be right. In fact, I truly hope that he is.
@NJCoin said:
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
You are jumping through a lot of hoops to draw that conclusion based on one person getting skunked. However, I agree with you, but I suspect it occurred for a different reason.
The mint did the laziest way to insert these randomly, and that is the extent of it. There is nothing else to consider.
Not at all. I very clearly stated that it might not be real, and that, even if it is, it could be an outlier. That said, if it IS real, and it's NOT an outlier, then maybe something else is going on.
No hoops at all, because I readily admit that one data point means nothing. Based on other reports so far, the Mint might very well have done a decent job in randomizing the placement.
My hoops and debate did not involve the one person. It involved what's going to happen with the back orders. And I have also said there that @JBK might be right. In fact, I truly hope that he is.
😂 if it’s real…I’m a real person not a mint bot lol…I really didn’t get a privy in either bag…
@Bundles84 said:
Let’s go!!! There has to be at least a few privy coins in here lol!
what're ya waiting for? open em up!
genuinely very curious what you discover through this experiment; privies per bag/roll, how many 0 privy bags/rolls, etc
my guess is 3 privies across all 16 bags/rolls ... maybe 2
Opened 2 bags…no privies 😡😡😡…if I another one and don’t get any I’m selling the rest lol
Were there any date stamps on the boxes you opened?
Unfortunately, date stamps aren't going to tell you anything if they either just did not do a good job of mixing the coins before packaging them, or if they intentionally over seeded the coins going out to ABPP. If it's the former, while people were joking about it earlier in the thread, you could literally have thousands of bags overflowing with privies and thousands of others with none that were all packed at the exact same date and time.
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
I picked up fifteen (five of which my niece got and did not want) of the $1 Trump coins at the ANA World's Fair of Money last week. There was always a line at the coin exchange machine until they ran out about the end of the second day. There was a limit of five coins per day with Mint police sitting right next to the machine, and yes, that guy had a great photo memory of who had already been in line each day. I also saw the first graded privy mark $1 Trump coin (MS66) at the CAC grading tables; it was found by one of the Advance Release dealers in a roll. I gave one coin each to two local coin dealers I like this past Monday.
ATS on the Rolls
Initially I saw 191, funny I checked about 30 seconds later and it went up to 197
Then I watched a few times as the ATS would dip, then go up by a few, go down by a few, etc...
It took a little over 9 minutes to sell the <200 available this morning -- so the Bots were not participating (or were they being blocked, and that is when the ATS would go back up by a few?). This happened yesterday as well where the ATS was fluctuating down then up then down then up, etc...
@Bob_Silver said:
I picked up fifteen (five of which my niece got and did not want) of the $1 Trump coins at the ANA World's Fair of Money last week. There was always a line at the coin exchange machine until they ran out about the end of the second day. There was a limit of five coins per day with Mint police sitting right next to the machine, and yes, that guy had a great photo memory of who had already been in line each day. I also saw the first graded privy mark $1 Trump coin (MS66) at the CAC grading tables; it was found by one of the Advance Release dealers in a roll. I gave one coin each to two local coin dealers I like this past Monday.
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
@NJCoin said:
My hoops and debate did not involve the one person. It involved what's going to happen with the back orders. And I have also said there that @JBK might be right. In fact, I truly hope that he is.
The best outcome would have been if these were inserted at final packaging, but it appears they were done prior, which probably means some were dumped into a large number and they were mixed and scratched up to make it random. Then they went to final packaging.
I'm not sure what the concern is about the backorder, as it may be those end up with more or less depending on how the mint calculated the entire distribution. It will probably be as random as the rest of what they did, and it is up to chance and how well the mint used a calculator.
All of them will be inserted one way or another and it will average out, so those who open more will get closer to the average and those who only open a single product may get none or a few extra at once. I wouldn't doubt that a few went out with way too many, and many will get skunked as a result.
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
@NJCoin said:
My hoops and debate did not involve the one person. It involved what's going to happen with the back orders. And I have also said there that @JBK might be right. In fact, I truly hope that he is.
The best outcome would have been if these were inserted at final packaging, but it appears they were done prior, which probably means some were dumped into a large number and they were mixed and scratched up to make it random. Then they went to final packaging.
I'm not sure what the concern is about the backorder, as it may be those end up with more or less depending on how the mint calculated the entire distribution. It will probably be as random as the rest of what they did, and it is up to chance and how well the mint used a calculator.
All of them will be inserted one way or another and it will average out, so those who open more will get closer to the average and those who only open a single product may get none or a few extra at once. I wouldn't doubt that a few went out with way too many, and many will get skunked as a result.
What you are saying makes sense, but we'll see. Either they were mixed at the outset, and there is a bin with a few million of them, pre-mixed and ready to be packaged, or they were not. In which case it is entirely possible that all 250K have already been packaged, as happened the last time with the FH silver medal.
There is no way to know for sure until people receive their back orders, but either possibility is a real possibility, given what the Mint has done in the past.
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
I used some of those "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, at the mint yesterday to get some "We the People" Quarters.
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
This is interesting info regarding the distribution of the privy coins. I’m not sure of the source of where the mint got the dollars to fill that vending machine, but if no privy’s were found there, I am getting the feeling that those were made for distribution coins (like ballistic bags, bank/circulation bags) and that all 250,000 privy coins will be found in the mint bags & rolls sold on the website.
There was a constant line to get those dollars at the ANA and some privy’s should have been found out of every 10 or so people getting 5 coins each.
And to answer your question about cac pricing for these, I was the first submitter of these to them at the show and it came out to $41/coin. They were shocked when I showed them the coins early on Tuesday.
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
This is interesting info regarding the distribution of the privy coins. I’m not sure of the source of where the mint got the dollars to fill that vending machine, but if no privy’s were found there, I am getting the feeling that those were made for distribution coins (like ballistic bags, bank/circulation bags) and that all 250,000 privy coins will be found in the mint bags & rolls sold on the website.
There was a constant line to get those dollars at the ANA and some privy’s should have been found out of every 10 or so people getting 5 coins each.
And to answer your question about cac pricing for these, I was the first submitter of these to them at the show and it came out to $41/coin. They were shocked when I showed them the coins early on Tuesday.
Indication on the website was that the privys would only be included in the rolls and bags from the site.
When you say you were the first submitter of these to CAC was that the regular dollar coins or the privy mark?
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
This is interesting info regarding the distribution of the privy coins. I’m not sure of the source of where the mint got the dollars to fill that vending machine, but if no privy’s were found there, I am getting the feeling that those were made for distribution coins (like ballistic bags, bank/circulation bags) and that all 250,000 privy coins will be found in the mint bags & rolls sold on the website.
There was a constant line to get those dollars at the ANA and some privy’s should have been found out of every 10 or so people getting 5 coins each.
And to answer your question about cac pricing for these, I was the first submitter of these to them at the show and it came out to $41/coin. They were shocked when I showed them the coins early on Tuesday.
Absolutely. Those machines are ALWAYS filled with circulation product. Not product produced for numismatic sale. Because they would never break down product packaged for sale at a premium to sell at face value via a machine.
The fact that no one received a privy from that machine over two days is evidence that the privies are not going to be found in general circulation. As they say on their website.
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
This is interesting info regarding the distribution of the privy coins. I’m not sure of the source of where the mint got the dollars to fill that vending machine, but if no privy’s were found there, I am getting the feeling that those were made for distribution coins (like ballistic bags, bank/circulation bags) and that all 250,000 privy coins will be found in the mint bags & rolls sold on the website.
There was a constant line to get those dollars at the ANA and some privy’s should have been found out of every 10 or so people getting 5 coins each.
And to answer your question about cac pricing for these, I was the first submitter of these to them at the show and it came out to $41/coin. They were shocked when I showed them the coins early on Tuesday.
Indication on the website was that the privys would only be included in the rolls and bags from the site.
When you say you were the first submitter of these to CAC was that the regular dollar coins or the privy mark?
The wording on the website was somewhat vague, and was possible to be interpreted two different ways. That’s where my confusion came from.
As far as my submission, I don’t know if there were privy’s or not. I didn’t know about the privy mark possibility until last Wednesday, and I submitted the coins fairly early on Tuesday to cac. I did not take photos of the coins before submission. CAC assured me on Thursday afternoon that if privy’s were in the submission they would notate it on the label. The coins had already been packed and shipped to Virginia Beach with no way to check again at the show.
@1madman said:
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
This is interesting info regarding the distribution of the privy coins. I’m not sure of the source of where the mint got the dollars to fill that vending machine, but if no privy’s were found there, I am getting the feeling that those were made for distribution coins (like ballistic bags, bank/circulation bags) and that all 250,000 privy coins will be found in the mint bags & rolls sold on the website.
There was a constant line to get those dollars at the ANA and some privy’s should have been found out of every 10 or so people getting 5 coins each.
And to answer your question about cac pricing for these, I was the first submitter of these to them at the show and it came out to $41/coin. They were shocked when I showed them the coins early on Tuesday.
Indication on the website was that the privys would only be included in the rolls and bags from the site.
When you say you were the first submitter of these to CAC was that the regular dollar coins or the privy mark?
The wording on the website was somewhat vague, and was possible to be interpreted two different ways. That’s where my confusion came from.
As far as my submission, I don’t know if there were privy’s or not. I didn’t know about the privy mark possibility until last Wednesday, and I submitted the coins fairly early on Tuesday to cac. I did not take photos of the coins before submission. CAC assured me on Thursday afternoon that if privy’s were in the submission they would notate it on the label. The coins had already been packed and shipped to Virginia Beach with no way to check again at the show.
I called NGC and they couldn't tell me if they had a label for the privy, I checked PCGS and sent my 4 there.
Comments
I was going to tell him the same thing. I had this happen earlier this year. Glad I called when I did.
They need to form a union and have the day off .... LOL
Yup. There are 9 more just like it. Glad you are enjoying.
I just bought what I could. I figured I could sell some rolls and search some bags.
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Actually, none of them would apply. In this case, it's a definitive fact. The Mint put out a definitive statement. There is no reason to doubt it.
In any case, please don't put forth a guess and then start getting into semantics, pretending it is anything other than a prediction.
Opened 2 bags…no privies 😡😡😡…if I another one and don’t get any I’m selling the rest lol
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True, but kind of like First Day of Issue that can be submitted within a week of release, or First Strike that has nothing to do with either first or strike, they can back date whatever they want. After all, it's a privy mark, not a certified date of manufacture. It can be whatever they want it to be.
Who knows? The website was jammed all day, and yet people were able to order for hours on end.
Something was different today. We just have no way to know whether it was a temporary bot fix, a permanent one, or an absence of bots altogether.
Correct. And then said that it wasn't a prediction.
Go back and take a long hard look at the definition you posted, and then explain, for the benefit of those less erudite and educated than you, the difference between prediction and "opinion, estimate or answer given without having all the facts or proof."
I can't wait to see how you tease that out. Because I also happen to have access to a Google machine.
Are you serious? If so, that suggests the distribution was not random, given how low the odds are of going 0 for 200 when the expected random value is 5.7.
Were there any date stamps on the boxes you opened?
@Batman23 is on to something here. The date stamps.
Unfortunately, date stamps aren't going to tell you anything if they either just did not do a good job of mixing the coins before packaging them, or if they intentionally over seeded the coins going out to ABPP. If it's the former, while people were joking about it earlier in the thread, you could literally have thousands of bags overflowing with privies and thousands of others with none that were all packed at the exact same date and time.
The 250K are supposed to be distributed randomly among the 8.75 million offered for sale. If the fact that someone went 0 for 200 is something other than an exceptional outlier, it lends credence to the possibility that back orders will also have none, and that ABPP received an over allocation. Which means everyone buying today, in the aggregate will be seeing fewer than 2.86 per 100.
Exactly as happened the last time with the FH silver medals, when ABPP received an allocation based on a mintage of 75K when the true mintage was 50K, and when privies were then seeded in the 50K, with none held back for the 25K that were never going to be made.
I'm not sure they're done mixed enough. spin the drum another 20 more times andy!
So far, everyone who has reported today is averaging better than 2.86 per 100.
Are you making a guess? What is your basis for this prediction?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
You are jumping through a lot of hoops to draw that conclusion based on one person getting skunked. However, I agree with you, but I suspect it occurred for a different reason.
The mint did the laziest way to insert these randomly, and that is the extent of it. There is nothing else to consider.
This is going to go to the full mintage, so everyone who gets skunked will mean someone else will get twice as many as they should. Welcome to the US Mint.
Agree !
Thanks for the tip I really appreciate it, and I have been calling them, but I haven't been able to get through to a live agent.
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None. Not enough info.
I always thought we'd see 2.86 per 100 on what's going out now, because that will still result in almost 40K for the Big Boys. My only question was what would happen with the back orders.
Which is what the guesses and predictions were all about. I was pretty clear that I was only asking questions. Not predicting anything. @Bundles84's report, if it's real, calls that into question.
I do, however, appreciate how you sidestepped my question after helpfully providing a definition for "guess" that nicely corresponded with my understanding.
Not at all. I very clearly stated that it might not be real, and that, even if it is, it could be an outlier. That said, if it IS real, and it's NOT an outlier, then maybe something else is going on.
No hoops at all, because I readily admit that one data point means nothing. Based on other reports so far, the Mint might very well have done a decent job in randomizing the placement.
My hoops and debate did not involve the one person. It involved what's going to happen with the back orders. And I have also said there that @JBK might be right. In fact, I truly hope that he is.
7/31 looks to be early boxes. Having no privies is a bummer. This does show the reality of randomness. Thanks for letting us know.
😂 if it’s real…I’m a real person not a mint bot lol…I really didn’t get a privy in either bag…
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BST references available on request
Rolls available this morning
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Briefly. I wasn't able to catch the ATS.
I sent 4 to PCGS and sold one on flea bay
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how much ur fleabay one go for?
plus shipping
$275.00 but had a few marks on it maybe a 63 tops
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Bags were up for the traditional millisecond.
I picked up fifteen (five of which my niece got and did not want) of the $1 Trump coins at the ANA World's Fair of Money last week. There was always a line at the coin exchange machine until they ran out about the end of the second day. There was a limit of five coins per day with Mint police sitting right next to the machine, and yes, that guy had a great photo memory of who had already been in line each day. I also saw the first graded privy mark $1 Trump coin (MS66) at the CAC grading tables; it was found by one of the Advance Release dealers in a roll. I gave one coin each to two local coin dealers I like this past Monday.
ATS on the Rolls
Initially I saw 191, funny I checked about 30 seconds later and it went up to 197
Then I watched a few times as the ATS would dip, then go up by a few, go down by a few, etc...
It took a little over 9 minutes to sell the <200 available this morning -- so the Bots were not participating (or were they being blocked, and that is when the ATS would go back up by a few?). This happened yesterday as well where the ATS was fluctuating down then up then down then up, etc...
Of the Trump dollar?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Sorry if I missed this posted somewhere, but were any of the privy $1 coins found in the mint’s vending machine at the ANA? I never personally got confirmation to definitely say yes privy coins were obtained from that source.
The best outcome would have been if these were inserted at final packaging, but it appears they were done prior, which probably means some were dumped into a large number and they were mixed and scratched up to make it random. Then they went to final packaging.
I'm not sure what the concern is about the backorder, as it may be those end up with more or less depending on how the mint calculated the entire distribution. It will probably be as random as the rest of what they did, and it is up to chance and how well the mint used a calculator.
All of them will be inserted one way or another and it will average out, so those who open more will get closer to the average and those who only open a single product may get none or a few extra at once. I wouldn't doubt that a few went out with way too many, and many will get skunked as a result.
What is a ballpark time period for the mint to process orders - just curious. Awful lot of shipments going out the door.
Waiting room right now...
I am not aware of any privy coins being obtained from the US Mint coin machine at the ANA show. If there was, I'm sure it would have been news spreading quickly on the bourse floor. BTW - CAC was the only grading service taking the $1 Trump coins at the show for grading. I think all-in, it would have been about $65 per coin by submitting at the show to CAC. For those that are not familiar, the US Mint coin machines only take $1 and $5 bills, so be prepared with crisp bills and none of that "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, they don't feed well into the machines
What you are saying makes sense, but we'll see. Either they were mixed at the outset, and there is a bin with a few million of them, pre-mixed and ready to be packaged, or they were not. In which case it is entirely possible that all 250K have already been packaged, as happened the last time with the FH silver medal.
There is no way to know for sure until people receive their back orders, but either possibility is a real possibility, given what the Mint has done in the past.
Of the Trump 4th of July dollars
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I used some of those "7-Eleven" money that's crumpled and smells like smoke, at the mint yesterday to get some "We the People" Quarters.
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This is interesting info regarding the distribution of the privy coins. I’m not sure of the source of where the mint got the dollars to fill that vending machine, but if no privy’s were found there, I am getting the feeling that those were made for distribution coins (like ballistic bags, bank/circulation bags) and that all 250,000 privy coins will be found in the mint bags & rolls sold on the website.
There was a constant line to get those dollars at the ANA and some privy’s should have been found out of every 10 or so people getting 5 coins each.
And to answer your question about cac pricing for these, I was the first submitter of these to them at the show and it came out to $41/coin. They were shocked when I showed them the coins early on Tuesday.
Indication on the website was that the privys would only be included in the rolls and bags from the site.
When you say you were the first submitter of these to CAC was that the regular dollar coins or the privy mark?
So the one you sold was raw?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Absolutely. Those machines are ALWAYS filled with circulation product. Not product produced for numismatic sale. Because they would never break down product packaged for sale at a premium to sell at face value via a machine.
The fact that no one received a privy from that machine over two days is evidence that the privies are not going to be found in general circulation. As they say on their website.
The wording on the website was somewhat vague, and was possible to be interpreted two different ways. That’s where my confusion came from.
As far as my submission, I don’t know if there were privy’s or not. I didn’t know about the privy mark possibility until last Wednesday, and I submitted the coins fairly early on Tuesday to cac. I did not take photos of the coins before submission. CAC assured me on Thursday afternoon that if privy’s were in the submission they would notate it on the label. The coins had already been packed and shipped to Virginia Beach with no way to check again at the show.
Yes
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coinJP, Outhaul ,illini420,MICHAELDIXON, Fade to Black,epcjimi1,19Lyds,SNMAN,JerseyJoe, bigjpst, DMWJR , lordmarcovan, Weiss,Mfriday4962,UtahCoin,Downtown1974,pitboss,RichieURich,Bullsitter,JDsCoins,toyz4geo,jshaulis, mustanggt, SNMAN, MWallace, ms71, lordmarcovan,JWP,dantheman984,olah_in_MA,USMC_6115
I called NGC and they couldn't tell me if they had a label for the privy, I checked PCGS and sent my 4 there.
INYNWHWeTrust-TexasNationals,ajaan,blu62vette
coinJP, Outhaul ,illini420,MICHAELDIXON, Fade to Black,epcjimi1,19Lyds,SNMAN,JerseyJoe, bigjpst, DMWJR , lordmarcovan, Weiss,Mfriday4962,UtahCoin,Downtown1974,pitboss,RichieURich,Bullsitter,JDsCoins,toyz4geo,jshaulis, mustanggt, SNMAN, MWallace, ms71, lordmarcovan,JWP,dantheman984,olah_in_MA,USMC_6115
Finally found two in one of my rolls.
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