The sentiment seems to be unusually bipolar between Rosemont 2014 redux and silver Liberty Bells 2.0 on the one hand, and nothing to see here due to "High cost +mintage =plenty here" on the other.
I happen to be smack in the middle, thinking 15K is the right number for a sell out, while the price at that mintage means there will not be a monster flip inciting a frenzy.
The sentiment seems to be unusually bipolar between Rosemont 2014 redux and silver Liberty Bells 2.0 on the one hand, and nothing to see here due to "High cost +mintage =plenty here" on the other.
I happen to be smack in the middle, thinking 15K is the right number for a sell out, while the price at that mintage means there will not be a monster flip inciting a frenzy.
Yeah. I'm somewhat in the middle. I've yet to decide what I'm going to do.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The sentiment seems to be unusually bipolar between Rosemont 2014 redux and silver Liberty Bells 2.0 on the one hand, and nothing to see here due to "High cost +mintage =plenty here" on the other.
I happen to be smack in the middle, thinking 15K is the right number for a sell out, while the price at that mintage means there will not be a monster flip inciting a frenzy.
I’m also in the middle of the two camps. I want one for several reasons. I feel as if it may be a little bit of a wait to get onto the site to order one, but I think I’ll be able to get one before they sellout. I would be happy even with a “backordered to_______” order.
It’s going to be a costly item, and that in itself cuts out people wavering on spending that much to continue this set. There’s another equally as expensive set on September 24, and some are choosing between the two. 15,000 is probably correct, and I’m leaning to more of a lengthier sellout, but one nonetheless.
one forumite who almost never visits anymore accuses the mint of hiring actors to stand in line to make it seem like the demand was higher than reality.
i've never said it, but I was there and was amongst those actors. they were from Betsy Royall Casting. they were given an envelope with money and a small sheet of instructions which included not opening the envelope until they get inside. they were not making fake demand, they were making real purchases.I saw real cash in one of those envelopes. I talked to a few who were around me and they really didn't care they were selling to flippers who were just going to resell them at a markup. though, one kind of did. he was in the "oh wow" area but didn't leave line and that's as far as caring went. some argued in favor of what was happening. One person started with "we're making a commercial..." "Where are the cameras?" "silence."
i've been to dc hq sales counter and shows -- here are the key facts
the staff at hq sales counter have no more idea of the issuance calendar than what is online - "fall listed online?" that's the best you'll get from them
the people who staff the sales counter in dc hq are the same people that staff the shows - (and they do inventory in the warehouses)
the dc hq sales counter staff order for the sales counters and shows. -- (the inventory received is actually ordered and shipped by the same process that we get them)
since the dc hq staff work the shows and order for the shows they know exactly what will be at a show and what will be sold at the dc hq sales counter. I have no idea if numbers are a secret or not, but they'll surely know what they will have for sale.
@mbr33 said:
I’m also in the middle of the two camps. I want one for several reasons. I feel as if it may be a little bit of a wait to get onto the site to order one, but I think I’ll be able to get one before they sellout. I would be happy even with a “backordered to_______” order.
It’s going to be a costly item, and that in itself cuts out people wavering on spending that much to continue this set. There’s another equally as expensive set on September 24, and some are choosing between the two. 15,000 is probably correct, and I’m leaning to more of a lengthier sellout, but one nonetheless.
There's been a steady decline in units sold, but a steady increase in revenue with each release of the series.
Release..........Sales..............Price..............Total
Merc..............29,053.....x.........$810.....=.....$23.5 million
SLQ................15,912.....x......$1,540.....=.....$24.5 million
Walker.............9,122.....x......$2,775.....=.....$25.3 million
Let's say $26.5 million for the Bust and that ought to put units sold in the 5,000 range at today's pricing.
ATS sits at 9,700... We'll see what happens when the gates open.
I might be homeless after all of the expensive releases this year. > @MsMorrisine said:
mint sales @ counters and at shows
i've been to dc hq sales counter and shows -- here are the key facts
the staff at hq sales counter have no more idea of the issuance calendar than what is online - "fall listed online?" that's the best you'll get from them
the people who staff the sales counter in dc hq are the same people that staff the shows - (and they do inventory in the warehouses)
the dc hq sales counter staff order for the sales counters and shows. -- (the inventory received is actually ordered and shipped by the same process that we get them)
since the dc hq staff work the shows and order for the shows they know exactly what will be at a show and what will be sold at the dc hq sales counter. I have no idea if numbers are a secret or not, but they'll surely know what they will have for sale.
I stopped by the DC store as we were already downtown.
I had not been there in quite some time. I love how they have remodeled it.
I miss the Union Station store.
Indeed, the folks there said that they will be getting this issue. I did not ask them how many (oops).
They also said that they would be the ones in Pittsburgh, so other folks will obviously be filling in for them here. Having seen these gentlemen , I now remember that they were also the ones at the Baltimore show.
They said that they will have the biggest table in Pittsburgh. They were talking to me quite a bit about the 1933s. I'm very excited to go!
@MsMorrisine said:
as for the kennedy half sales in washington, dc
one forumite who almost never visits anymore accuses the mint of hiring actors to stand in line to make it seem like the demand was higher than reality.
i've never said it, but I was there and was amongst those actors. they were from Betsy Royall Casting. they were given an envelope with money and a small sheet of instructions which included not opening the envelope until they get inside. they were not making fake demand, they were making real purchases.I saw real cash in one of those envelopes. I talked to a few who were around me and they really didn't care they were selling to flippers who were just going to resell them at a markup. though, one kind of did. he was in the "oh wow" area but didn't leave line and that's as far as caring went. some argued in favor of what was happening. One person started with "we're making a commercial..." "Where are the cameras?" "silence."
It wasn't the Mint who hired them, it was a dealer. It was actually a very clever way to get a bunch of trustworthy people with a phone call.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The issue is the homeless person has to be funded by someone - at the last moment by the checkout - or else they will be GONE with your ppd VISA or other cash equivalent.
The FUNDING AGENT has to be there too.......
Any normal individual having to shell out 5500 or more on this issue to MAYBE make a few hundo isnt going to waste their time travelling to the show, pay for parking, pay for entry, etc.
@MsMorrisine said:
as for the kennedy half sales in washington, dc
one forumite who almost never visits anymore accuses the mint of hiring actors to stand in line to make it seem like the demand was higher than reality.
i've never said it, but I was there and was amongst those actors. they were from Betsy Royall Casting. they were given an envelope with money and a small sheet of instructions which included not opening the envelope until they get inside. they were not making fake demand, they were making real purchases.I saw real cash in one of those envelopes. I talked to a few who were around me and they really didn't care they were selling to flippers who were just going to resell them at a markup. though, one kind of did. he was in the "oh wow" area but didn't leave line and that's as far as caring went. some argued in favor of what was happening. One person started with "we're making a commercial..." "Where are the cameras?" "silence."
I was at the US Mint in Phila the day of the Kennedy release:
The individuals in front of me were all given a ticket stub, asked to wait in line and when they got to the front of the line were told what to buy and were handed a PPD VISA card for the exact amt of the purchase, They bought the coin.
They were then ushered over to a group of men waiting to take the coin and give them their "pay".
@mbr33 said:
ATS now down to 8000. Today is the day the ABPP gets their shot at the currently listed 3750 allocated to them.
I wonder how many will be @ WFOM & the DC store.
It will be very interesting to see how these go @ release.
Good question. 1700 vanished from ATS this morning, so maybe there will be lines of homeless to fight through in both locations. LOL!
Again, I just don't see that regardless. If that turns out to be what starts happening, I am reasonably confident, after the public safety, sanitation, and clear violation of HHL rules that manifested the last time, that the Mint, in coordination with the ANA and convention center management, would just cancel the onsite sale and send people home in Pittsburgh.
DC is a different story, since the Mint controls the site. That said, if things get out of hand, they could easily send people home and direct the inventory to the website, since they control everything. More likely things won't get out of hand in DC, though, since the crowds would be likely to be far smaller than at the annual ANA convention. They are also likely to have far fewer to sell in DC than Pittsburgh, so it would also be easier to control the mayhem by cutting off a line once it grows past the point at which they have sets to sell.
I fully realize that my track of being certain about things that end up not happening causes many here to question everything I write, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. So consider what I am saying rather than dismissing it out of hand.
If ATS at release is 8K or less, they will go quickly. At the risk of stating the obvious, whether or not this becomes Liberty Bells 2.0 is wholly dependent on whether or not buyers clubs get involved. That's around the number of FH gold coins they sold via the web. They went fast, but everyone who was trying around noon got one.
Beyond that, if dealers behave because they are now complying with ABPP agreements, it's entirely possible that you end up with a quick sell out online, and an orderly sales process in Pittsburgh. As happened 2 years ago in Baltimore with the FH gold coins.
After all, it's one thing for a buyers club member to have a bot attack a website. It's quite another to fly or drive to Pittsburgh to spend a night in a line outside a downtown convention center to make a few hundred bucks on a flip.
@mbr33 said:
ATS now down to 8000. Today is the day the ABPP gets their shot at the currently listed 3750 allocated to them.
I wonder how many will be @ WFOM & the DC store.
It will be very interesting to see how these go @ release.
Good question. 1700 vanished from ATS this morning, so maybe there will be lines of homeless to fight through in both locations. LOL!
Again, I just don't see that regardless. If that turns out to be what starts happening, I am reasonably confident, after the public safety, sanitation, and clear violation of HHL rules that manifested the last time, that the Mint, in coordination with the ANA and convention center management, would just cancel the onsite sale and send people home in Pittsburgh.
DC is a different story, since the Mint controls the site. That said, if things get out of hand, they could easily send people home and direct the inventory to the website, since they control everything. More likely things won't get out of hand in DC, though, since the crowds would be likely to be far smaller than at the annual ANA convention. They are also likely to have far fewer to sell in DC than Pittsburgh, so it would also be easier to control the mayhem by cutting off a line once it grows past the point at which they have sets to sell.
I fully realize that my track of being certain about things that end up not happening causes many here to question everything I write, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. So consider what I am saying rather than dismissing it out of hand.
If ATS at release is 8K or less, they will go quickly. At the risk of stating the obvious, whether or not this becomes Liberty Bells 2.0 is wholly dependent on whether or not buyers clubs get involved. That's around the number of FH gold coins they sold via the web. They went fast, but everyone who was trying around noon got one.
Beyond that, if dealers behave because they are now complying with ABPP agreements, it's entirely possible that you end up with a quick sell out online, and an orderly sales process in Pittsburgh. As happened 2 years ago in Baltimore with the FH gold coins.
After all, it's one thing for a buyers club member to have a bot attack a website. It's quite another to fly or drive to Pittsburgh to spend a night in a line outside a downtown convention center to make a few hundred bucks on a flip.
I agree with you that no homeless encampment will set up anywhere to buy high-priced Mint offerings this year. I was just kidding around with the loss of 1700 vanishing from inventory ATS this morning and wondering where they might have gone. I'm not questioning your track record of being right or wrong, as I feel that everyone has a viewpoint that should be heard and not dismissed out-of-hand.
The starting gun has sounded now for the ABPP at noon, and 25 minutes in they have grabbed 55 of them. They've got until 3 PM Monday to make the commitment at "5764.50".
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
I am going for one. Hoping it’s easier than some of the most recent high-demand gold coins. The APBB has purchased about 1000 of their allotment in the first 5 1/2 hours. Will see if they sell out Monday.
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
It's the old Catch-22. You are going to want multiples if they are difficult to get. Otherwise, not so much.
So let me save you some trouble. Given that you are going to be in Pittsburgh while your son is in DC, you will have an in person, bird's eye view on how sales are going.
If they are "hot," you probably won't be able to get one online while you are trying on a cell phone from the convention center, with thousands of other people trying to do the same thing at the same time. And, if they are not, you are not going to want one. So just forget online.
One third of your dilemma just disappeared. Since you are going to Pittsburgh anyway, while you son will be in DC anyway, just play it by ear. If things are nuts, get the two of them.
Otherwise, don't. It's really not such a conflict, unless you would want multiples just because you like them, and think they might have legs in the future even if they start out slow, as some of the gold high relief Liberty coins did.
But that doesn't sound like you. You either want a guaranteed flip to subsidize the one you are adding to your collection, or you only want one.
You'll be able to see what's going on before you commit, because you'll either see big lines in DC, or you won't. Pittsburgh will have a line regardless, due to the concentration of collectors there. But, even then, you'll be able to see whether it is "normal," which won't necessarily signal a sell out, or nuts, like Rosemont 2014.
Basically, you are worrying about nothing, because all will be revealed before noon on the 27th.
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
I am going for one. Hoping it’s easier than some of the most recent high-demand gold coins. The APBB has purchased about 1000 of their allotment in the first 5 1/2 hours. Will see if they sell out Monday.
Just keep in mind that, with ABPP, the counter doesn't increment down like a normal counter, because each eligible purchaser gets a specific allotment. And they don't have to race to grab it, because it is reserved for them for the duration of the sales window.
If 1/3 of the total has been spoken for in 5 hours, that's a strong indication that they will all be gone before the window closes. Which is a strong indication that these will be winners, since ABPP sales for the last one were anemic, as were sales to the public.
A nice round 8K for ATS, with 3750 reserved for ABPP, tells us exactly 3250 are going to the Mint stores and Pittsburgh. With a majority to Pittsburgh, if I had to guess.
I'll bet 2K to 2500 to Pittsburgh, to make sure everyone who wants one can get one there, with the balance split between DC, Philly and Denver. Which means they'll be gone in a flash online, but will be available in person for hours, and might not even sell out in person until the HHL is lifted.
I'm very surprised that they would send so many to the show, but that's what ATS is telling us, unless they revise it upward. And that WOULD tell us that they are taking steps to avoid what happened in Rosemont.
It would also be effective in moving desirable product away from bots. Presumably, the dealers who were responsible for the Rosemont fiasco are by and large the ABPP dealers, in which case their ability to take 3750 off the top will stop Rosemont from happening again.
I guess we'll see, but only 8K ATS indicates there will be plenty in Pittsburgh. In which case, an Early Bird pass just to stand in line to wait for this will prove to be time and money not well spent.
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
It's the old Catch-22. You are going to want multiples if they are difficult to get. Otherwise, not so much.
So let me save you some trouble. Given that you are going to be in Pittsburgh while your son is in DC, you will have an in person, bird's eye view on how sales are going.
If they are "hot," you probably won't be able to get one online while you are trying on a cell phone from the convention center, with thousands of other people trying to do the same thing at the same time. And, if they are not, you are not going to want one. So just forget online.
One third of your dilemma just disappeared. Since you are going to Pittsburgh anyway, while you son will be in DC anyway, just play it by ear. If things are nuts, get the two of them.
Otherwise, don't. It's really not such a conflict, unless you would want multiples just because you like them, and think they might have legs in the future even if they start out slow, as some of the gold high relief Liberty coins did.
But that doesn't sound like you. You either want a guaranteed flip to subsidize the one you are adding to your collection, or you only want one.
You'll be able to see what's going on before you commit, because you'll either see big lines in DC, or you won't. Pittsburgh will have a line regardless, due to the concentration of collectors there. But, even then, you'll be able to see whether it is "normal," which won't necessarily signal a sell out, or nuts, like Rosemont 2014.
Basically, you are worrying about nothing, because all will be revealed before noon on the 27th.
Thanks, NJ. That is a great way to think about it.
I'll see how it goes.
I've never spent this much on moderns as I have this year since I've been in the hobby. Then, there is the 1907!. I've got that day off. I'll likely just go to DC. If it seems like it will be crazy, I'll bring my son and try to get two so that one can be sold to subsidize the other.
I definitely don't want to wait in line having paid for early bird for nothing. I'd much rather enjoy the show as I only have 1.5 days there.
The Enhanced Unc AGE sold out very quickly and was quite $. That's why I can see a similarly expensive coin selling out quickly. This seems to have way more interest going in. We'll see.
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
my mental picture of you was a whippersnapper! gone!
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
my mental picture of you was a whippersnapper! gone!
Omg. If only!!!!
My wife was looking at the coin and now she wants to go down with my son and get one as well , which would make three. Godd lord. $$.
I explained to her that they were copies of the originals which were in silver. She said it would be cool to get one of those as well to go with the gold. Can't argue that it would be very cool.... lol
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
my mental picture of you was a whippersnapper! gone!
Omg. If only!!!!
My wife was looking at the coin and now she wants to go down with my son and get one as well , which would make three. Godd lord. $$.
I explained to her that they were copies of the originals which were in silver. She said it would be cool to get one of those as well to go with the gold. Can't argue that it would be very cool.... lol
Happy wife, happy life !
OK marching orders delivered !
Please share pictures of the gold and original silver coin!! Yes !!!
BTW what is the expected price tag on these ? The walking liberty went up in price on the US Mint website.....
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
my mental picture of you was a whippersnapper! gone!
Omg. If only!!!!
My wife was looking at the coin and now she wants to go down with my son and get one as well , which would make three. Godd lord. $$.
I explained to her that they were copies of the originals which were in silver. She said it would be cool to get one of those as well to go with the gold. Can't argue that it would be very cool.... lol
Happy wife, happy life !
OK marching orders delivered !
Please share pictures of the gold and original silver coin!! Yes !!!
BTW what is the expected price tag on these ? The walking liberty went up in price on the US Mint website.....
Lol!!
Unfortunately , I think a silver one might be a bit of a reach ....
If we end up with three, which I don't know will happen, it would only be to sell two of them to subsidize one to keep , but I'll see how it goes at the time...
Unfortunately , I did not get that billion dollar lottery the other day (didn't play) so silver will have to wait...
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
I 'm still getting a mental picture of that same 10 y.o. kid standing in line, snatching that first ever Baseball HOF coin. Maybe the same thing happens here and his picture will be published, again.
@Raufus said:
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
I 'm still getting a mental picture of that same 10 y.o. kid standing in line, snatching that first ever Baseball HOF coin. Maybe the same thing happens here and his picture will be published, again.
SO awesome that you remember that!!! :-)
That was the BEST time! He got the very first HOF Gold coin sold and met Brooks Robinson. I love that pic on the Whitman site. Just an amazing time that we'll never forget!
Incredibly, that little kid is 24 and headed to med school. Crazy how time flies.
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
I wouldn't mind if the perception on release day was that it would be a dud. It can sleep for awhile and maybe wake up down the road.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
I wouldn't mind if the perception on release day was that it would be a dud. It can sleep for awhile and maybe wake up down the road.
Yeah. But it won't. It's still too soon to tell whether or not the remaining 2467 will be spoken for, and I love these as much as anyone else. That said, no one has their hands on the pulse of the market the way the ABPP dealers do.
And, by and large, they are the ones people flip to when there is a flip. If they are passing on their advance allocation, it's because they know there will be very little demand. We all see the same thing, and retail is not smarter than large dealers.
I'm not sure why these would not be loved. Other than, as I said multiple times, the Mint is overplaying its hand with the premiums it is charging, and people are getting burnt out.
When you stop and think about it, the Mint has released a ton of "stuff" this year. None of it cheap, from a $124.50 base metal annual coin set to a $20,000 per ounce gold Liberty Bell. And then, how many ounces of gold at over $5K per ounce?
Too soon to tell, but it's very possible the Mint knew something we are about to find out when they cut mintage on this one in half, considering the one that cost a little over 1/10 as much did not sell 30K.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
Not that I can recall. With the "hot" ones, we all complain that ABPP got too many.
I honestly do not recall anything since ABPP started where people got shut out at release while ABPP left anything on the table. Does anyone else have an example?
2021 Horsie doesn't count, because they were widely available, in unlimited quantities, for weeks before they sold out. True, they were sleepers that later took off, but everyone missed them. Including most of us.
The fact is, if ABPP does not grab 3750 of these, you will be able to buy as many as you want on 8/28, and won't have to wait on a line to buy one on 8/27, even though there surely will be lines regardless at noon on 8/27. Just like there will be a waiting room online. But, if there is no ABPP demand, there will be no bots.
@Raufus said:
It will be so interesting to see what really happens with these things.
They are SO expensive.
Even if they're total duds, I would like to have one for my collection in the OGP.
The other problem is that I want one of the HRs also.
Honestly, this hobby's just getting too expensive. I've got to re-evaluate it in general.
Yeah. That's the issue. With everyone and with everything.
Gold and silver are significantly more expensive than just a few short years ago. And then, on top of that, the Mint decided/realized it was leaving money on the table with respect to the premiums it was charging for numismatic product as compared to other world mints that do a fraction of the US Mint's volume.
As a result $1,000 per ounce premiums to $4500 gold, as compared to $300 premiums to $800 gold. No, it does not now cost $700 more to produce the same coin as before, but the Mint decided it could get it, so it does. Not in the same quantities, but still. And this is putting aside for the moment the fact that the Mint made a substantial profit even with the $300 premium.
As a result, things that used to cost around $1,000 now cost over $5,000, and everyone has to decide, with every release whether or not it's worth it to keep going. Knowing they are going to lose the premium if gold rises, and get killed even worse if gold falls.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
The Mustang. That one baffles me. Why did it get so little attention for the entire time it was for sale only to move up so much?
Was the FH on the ABPP radar?
Did they take a full allotment of the enhanced unc AGE?
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
The Mustang. That one baffles me. Why did it get so little attention for the entire time it was for sale only to move up so much?
Was the FH on the ABPP radar?
Did they take a full allotment of the enhanced unc AGE?
I had to Google the answer to the Mustang question:
🗓️ Sales Timeline & Performance
Launch Date: August 19, 2021 (at noon EDT).
Initial Window: Capped at 1 coin per household for the first 24 hours
Pacing: Massive early demand caused the initial allocation to shift to backorder status in under half an hour, effectively exhausting the entire product run during its debut week on the market.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
Not that I can recall. With the "hot" ones, we all complain that ABPP got too many.
I honestly do not recall anything since ABPP started where people got shut out at release while ABPP left anything on the table. Does anyone else have an example?
2021 Horsie doesn't count, because they were widely available, in unlimited quantities, for weeks before they sold out. True, they were sleepers that later took off, but everyone missed them. Including most of us.
The fact is, if ABPP does not grab 3750 of these, you will be able to buy as many as you want on 8/28, and won't have to wait on a line to buy one on 8/27, even though there surely will be lines regardless at noon on 8/27. Just like there will be a waiting room online. But, if there is no ABPP demand, there will be no bots.
We have a half hour left on the ABPP clock and they've left 2012 of them so far. Unless there's a mad scramble at the end, we should have some more available to us and some doubt will have crept in to a few collectors who might rethink buying this one too. Win-win if you were worried about being able to acquire one. (I know you were leaning away from panic here, NJ.)
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
The Mustang. That one baffles me. Why did it get so little attention for the entire time it was for sale only to move up so much?
Was the FH on the ABPP radar?
Did they take a full allotment of the enhanced unc AGE?
???? Because it was new, unique, and not inexpensive for the time. Unlike the usual crash and burn, the price and demand built slowly over time.
At the time, I don't remember back order being a reason people weren't buying. And, given that it wasn't "hot" I don't think anyone was looking at what ABPP was taking.
None of this matters for now. If ABPP is not taking its full allocation, these absolutely will not sell out in the first 24 hours, if at all.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
The Mustang. That one baffles me. Why did it get so little attention for the entire time it was for sale only to move up so much?
Was the FH on the ABPP radar?
Did they take a full allotment of the enhanced unc AGE?
I had to Google the answer to the Mustang question:
🗓️ Sales Timeline & Performance
Launch Date: August 19, 2021 (at noon EDT).
Initial Window: Capped at 1 coin per household for the first 24 hours
Pacing: Massive early demand caused the initial allocation to shift to backorder status in under half an hour, effectively exhausting the entire product run during its debut week on the market.
Great info. Thx!
But, still, they were orderable for quite some time. I don't know why that was the case & then all of a sudden later they became so desirable.
@mbr33 said:
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
The Mustang. That one baffles me. Why did it get so little attention for the entire time it was for sale only to move up so much?
Was the FH on the ABPP radar?
Did they take a full allotment of the enhanced unc AGE?
???? Because it was new, unique, and not inexpensive for the time. Unlike the usual crash and burn, the price and demand built slowly over time.
At the time, I don't remember back order being a reason people weren't buying. And, given that it wasn't "hot" I don't think anyone was looking at what ABPP was taking.
None of this matters for now. If ABPP is not taking its full allocation, these absolutely will not sell out in the first 24 hours, if at all.
Of course all of the UHRs are unique. Not that it matters, but I just don't understand why that one in particular, which was available for quite some time, all of the sudden went crazy when the other ones have done either nothing or done ok. I wasn't aying attention at the time , so it certainly blew by me.
Comments
High cost +mintage =plenty here.
The sentiment seems to be unusually bipolar between Rosemont 2014 redux and silver Liberty Bells 2.0 on the one hand, and nothing to see here due to "High cost +mintage =plenty here" on the other.
I happen to be smack in the middle, thinking 15K is the right number for a sell out, while the price at that mintage means there will not be a monster flip inciting a frenzy.
Yeah. I'm somewhat in the middle. I've yet to decide what I'm going to do.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I’m also in the middle of the two camps. I want one for several reasons. I feel as if it may be a little bit of a wait to get onto the site to order one, but I think I’ll be able to get one before they sellout. I would be happy even with a “backordered to_______” order.
It’s going to be a costly item, and that in itself cuts out people wavering on spending that much to continue this set. There’s another equally as expensive set on September 24, and some are choosing between the two. 15,000 is probably correct, and I’m leaning to more of a lengthier sellout, but one nonetheless.
as for the kennedy half sales in washington, dc
one forumite who almost never visits anymore accuses the mint of hiring actors to stand in line to make it seem like the demand was higher than reality.
i've never said it, but I was there and was amongst those actors. they were from Betsy Royall Casting. they were given an envelope with money and a small sheet of instructions which included not opening the envelope until they get inside. they were not making fake demand, they were making real purchases.I saw real cash in one of those envelopes. I talked to a few who were around me and they really didn't care they were selling to flippers who were just going to resell them at a markup. though, one kind of did. he was in the "oh wow" area but didn't leave line and that's as far as caring went. some argued in favor of what was happening. One person started with "we're making a commercial..." "Where are the cameras?" "silence."
mint sales @ counters and at shows
i've been to dc hq sales counter and shows -- here are the key facts
the staff at hq sales counter have no more idea of the issuance calendar than what is online - "fall listed online?" that's the best you'll get from them
the people who staff the sales counter in dc hq are the same people that staff the shows - (and they do inventory in the warehouses)
the dc hq sales counter staff order for the sales counters and shows. -- (the inventory received is actually ordered and shipped by the same process that we get them)
since the dc hq staff work the shows and order for the shows they know exactly what will be at a show and what will be sold at the dc hq sales counter. I have no idea if numbers are a secret or not, but they'll surely know what they will have for sale.
There's been a steady decline in units sold, but a steady increase in revenue with each release of the series.
Release..........Sales..............Price..............Total
Merc..............29,053.....x.........$810.....=.....$23.5 million
SLQ................15,912.....x......$1,540.....=.....$24.5 million
Walker.............9,122.....x......$2,775.....=.....$25.3 million
Let's say $26.5 million for the Bust and that ought to put units sold in the 5,000 range at today's pricing.
ATS sits at 9,700... We'll see what happens when the gates open.
I might be homeless after all of the expensive releases this year. > @MsMorrisine said:
I stopped by the DC store as we were already downtown.
I had not been there in quite some time. I love how they have remodeled it.
I miss the Union Station store.
Indeed, the folks there said that they will be getting this issue. I did not ask them how many (oops).
They also said that they would be the ones in Pittsburgh, so other folks will obviously be filling in for them here. Having seen these gentlemen , I now remember that they were also the ones at the Baltimore show.
They said that they will have the biggest table in Pittsburgh. They were talking to me quite a bit about the 1933s. I'm very excited to go!
i missed the union station counter too, but it's good that they closed it because of all the drug related activity there now.
keep in mind, for the noon releases at dc hq, the waiting room is outside on the sidewalk.
It wasn't the Mint who hired them, it was a dealer. It was actually a very clever way to get a bunch of trustworthy people with a phone call.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The issue is the homeless person has to be funded by someone - at the last moment by the checkout - or else they will be GONE with your ppd VISA or other cash equivalent.
The FUNDING AGENT has to be there too.......
Any normal individual having to shell out 5500 or more on this issue to MAYBE make a few hundo isnt going to waste their time travelling to the show, pay for parking, pay for entry, etc.
I was at the US Mint in Phila the day of the Kennedy release:
The individuals in front of me were all given a ticket stub, asked to wait in line and when they got to the front of the line were told what to buy and were handed a PPD VISA card for the exact amt of the purchase, They bought the coin.
They were then ushered over to a group of men waiting to take the coin and give them their "pay".
ATS now down to 8000. Today is the day the ABPP gets their shot at the currently listed 3750 allocated to them.
I wonder how many will be @ WFOM & the DC store.
It will be very interesting to see how these go @ release.
Good question. 1700 vanished from ATS this morning, so maybe there will be lines of homeless to fight through in both locations. LOL!
Again, I just don't see that regardless. If that turns out to be what starts happening, I am reasonably confident, after the public safety, sanitation, and clear violation of HHL rules that manifested the last time, that the Mint, in coordination with the ANA and convention center management, would just cancel the onsite sale and send people home in Pittsburgh.
DC is a different story, since the Mint controls the site. That said, if things get out of hand, they could easily send people home and direct the inventory to the website, since they control everything. More likely things won't get out of hand in DC, though, since the crowds would be likely to be far smaller than at the annual ANA convention. They are also likely to have far fewer to sell in DC than Pittsburgh, so it would also be easier to control the mayhem by cutting off a line once it grows past the point at which they have sets to sell.
I fully realize that my track of being certain about things that end up not happening causes many here to question everything I write, but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while. So consider what I am saying rather than dismissing it out of hand.
If ATS at release is 8K or less, they will go quickly. At the risk of stating the obvious, whether or not this becomes Liberty Bells 2.0 is wholly dependent on whether or not buyers clubs get involved. That's around the number of FH gold coins they sold via the web. They went fast, but everyone who was trying around noon got one.
Beyond that, if dealers behave because they are now complying with ABPP agreements, it's entirely possible that you end up with a quick sell out online, and an orderly sales process in Pittsburgh. As happened 2 years ago in Baltimore with the FH gold coins.
After all, it's one thing for a buyers club member to have a bot attack a website. It's quite another to fly or drive to Pittsburgh to spend a night in a line outside a downtown convention center to make a few hundred bucks on a flip.
I agree with you that no homeless encampment will set up anywhere to buy high-priced Mint offerings this year. I was just kidding around with the loss of 1700 vanishing from inventory ATS this morning and wondering where they might have gone. I'm not questioning your track record of being right or wrong, as I feel that everyone has a viewpoint that should be heard and not dismissed out-of-hand.
The starting gun has sounded now for the ABPP at noon, and 25 minutes in they have grabbed 55 of them. They've got until 3 PM Monday to make the commitment at "5764.50".
Given the price, I'm really conflicted on how many to try for.
I'll be at WFOM. My son will be in DC.
I could try online as well.
These are so expensive. It's hard to know what to do. I'd only want multiples to offset a keeper. Of course, if there is no flip, it's easy to return one to DC instead of waiting forever for a refund after sending one back to the Mint.
I am going for one. Hoping it’s easier than some of the most recent high-demand gold coins. The APBB has purchased about 1000 of their allotment in the first 5 1/2 hours. Will see if they sell out Monday.
well if you are going the return route, take cash to dc and let the kid buy one too and skip online
Deleted
It's the old Catch-22. You are going to want multiples if they are difficult to get. Otherwise, not so much.
So let me save you some trouble. Given that you are going to be in Pittsburgh while your son is in DC, you will have an in person, bird's eye view on how sales are going.
If they are "hot," you probably won't be able to get one online while you are trying on a cell phone from the convention center, with thousands of other people trying to do the same thing at the same time. And, if they are not, you are not going to want one. So just forget online.
One third of your dilemma just disappeared. Since you are going to Pittsburgh anyway, while you son will be in DC anyway, just play it by ear. If things are nuts, get the two of them.
Otherwise, don't. It's really not such a conflict, unless you would want multiples just because you like them, and think they might have legs in the future even if they start out slow, as some of the gold high relief Liberty coins did.
But that doesn't sound like you. You either want a guaranteed flip to subsidize the one you are adding to your collection, or you only want one.
You'll be able to see what's going on before you commit, because you'll either see big lines in DC, or you won't. Pittsburgh will have a line regardless, due to the concentration of collectors there. But, even then, you'll be able to see whether it is "normal," which won't necessarily signal a sell out, or nuts, like Rosemont 2014.
Basically, you are worrying about nothing, because all will be revealed before noon on the 27th.
Just keep in mind that, with ABPP, the counter doesn't increment down like a normal counter, because each eligible purchaser gets a specific allotment. And they don't have to race to grab it, because it is reserved for them for the duration of the sales window.
If 1/3 of the total has been spoken for in 5 hours, that's a strong indication that they will all be gone before the window closes. Which is a strong indication that these will be winners, since ABPP sales for the last one were anemic, as were sales to the public.
A nice round 8K for ATS, with 3750 reserved for ABPP, tells us exactly 3250 are going to the Mint stores and Pittsburgh. With a majority to Pittsburgh, if I had to guess.
I'll bet 2K to 2500 to Pittsburgh, to make sure everyone who wants one can get one there, with the balance split between DC, Philly and Denver. Which means they'll be gone in a flash online, but will be available in person for hours, and might not even sell out in person until the HHL is lifted.
I'm very surprised that they would send so many to the show, but that's what ATS is telling us, unless they revise it upward. And that WOULD tell us that they are taking steps to avoid what happened in Rosemont.
It would also be effective in moving desirable product away from bots. Presumably, the dealers who were responsible for the Rosemont fiasco are by and large the ABPP dealers, in which case their ability to take 3750 off the top will stop Rosemont from happening again.
I guess we'll see, but only 8K ATS indicates there will be plenty in Pittsburgh. In which case, an Early Bird pass just to stand in line to wait for this will prove to be time and money not well spent.
Thanks, NJ. That is a great way to think about it.
I'll see how it goes.
I've never spent this much on moderns as I have this year since I've been in the hobby. Then, there is the 1907!. I've got that day off. I'll likely just go to DC. If it seems like it will be crazy, I'll bring my son and try to get two so that one can be sold to subsidize the other.
I definitely don't want to wait in line having paid for early bird for nothing. I'd much rather enjoy the show as I only have 1.5 days there.
The Enhanced Unc AGE sold out very quickly and was quite $. That's why I can see a similarly expensive coin selling out quickly. This seems to have way more interest going in. We'll see.
My son will definitely be in DC to buy one while I'm at the WFOM. Why cash, vs CC?
Thanks!
he'd stand out wielding a cc unless he's 16+
Oh. He's 24 :-)
my mental picture of you was a whippersnapper! gone!
Omg. If only!!!!
My wife was looking at the coin and now she wants to go down with my son and get one as well , which would make three. Godd lord. $$.
I explained to her that they were copies of the originals which were in silver. She said it would be cool to get one of those as well to go with the gold. Can't argue that it would be very cool.... lol
Happy wife, happy life !
OK marching orders delivered !
Please share pictures of the gold and original silver coin!! Yes !!!
BTW what is the expected price tag on these ? The walking liberty went up in price on the US Mint website.....
Lol!!
Unfortunately , I think a silver one might be a bit of a reach ....
If we end up with three, which I don't know will happen, it would only be to sell two of them to subsidize one to keep , but I'll see how it goes at the time...
Unfortunately , I did not get that billion dollar lottery the other day (didn't play) so silver will have to wait...
I 'm still getting a mental picture of that same 10 y.o. kid standing in line, snatching that first ever Baseball HOF coin. Maybe the same thing happens here and his picture will be published, again.
I think it’ll be around $5500, unless gold moves a lot over the next couple of weeks.
SO awesome that you remember that!!! :-)
That was the BEST time! He got the very first HOF Gold coin sold and met Brooks Robinson. I love that pic on the Whitman site. Just an amazing time that we'll never forget!
Incredibly, that little kid is 24 and headed to med school. Crazy how time flies.
The ABPP has 6 hours left to decide to buy this one at $5764.50 or let them go. They were allotted up to 3750 of them and still have 2467 left ATS. Hopefully they pass on the rest of them so they can fall back into the "Regular Joe" inventory for August 27th.
Trust me, if that happens, we will no longer be lusting after them, and it will be the clearest possible signal that, notwithstanding how much some here love the design, it will be a dud just like its 3 predecessors.
Beautiful duds, though ^.
https://acoinshop.com/ —-> https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I wouldn't mind if the perception on release day was that it would be a dud. It can sleep for awhile and maybe wake up down the road.
Is there an example of a dud percieved by the ABPP only to turn out to be a hot dud down the road?
Maybe 2021 Mustang??
Yeah. But it won't. It's still too soon to tell whether or not the remaining 2467 will be spoken for, and I love these as much as anyone else. That said, no one has their hands on the pulse of the market the way the ABPP dealers do.
And, by and large, they are the ones people flip to when there is a flip. If they are passing on their advance allocation, it's because they know there will be very little demand. We all see the same thing, and retail is not smarter than large dealers.
I'm not sure why these would not be loved. Other than, as I said multiple times, the Mint is overplaying its hand with the premiums it is charging, and people are getting burnt out.
When you stop and think about it, the Mint has released a ton of "stuff" this year. None of it cheap, from a $124.50 base metal annual coin set to a $20,000 per ounce gold Liberty Bell. And then, how many ounces of gold at over $5K per ounce?
Too soon to tell, but it's very possible the Mint knew something we are about to find out when they cut mintage on this one in half, considering the one that cost a little over 1/10 as much did not sell 30K.
Not that I can recall. With the "hot" ones, we all complain that ABPP got too many.
I honestly do not recall anything since ABPP started where people got shut out at release while ABPP left anything on the table. Does anyone else have an example?
2021 Horsie doesn't count, because they were widely available, in unlimited quantities, for weeks before they sold out. True, they were sleepers that later took off, but everyone missed them. Including most of us.
The fact is, if ABPP does not grab 3750 of these, you will be able to buy as many as you want on 8/28, and won't have to wait on a line to buy one on 8/27, even though there surely will be lines regardless at noon on 8/27. Just like there will be a waiting room online. But, if there is no ABPP demand, there will be no bots.
It will be so interesting to see what really happens with these things.
They are SO expensive.
Even if they're total duds, I would like to have one for my collection in the OGP.
The other problem is that I want one of the HRs also.
Honestly, this hobby's just getting too expensive. I've got to re-evaluate it in general.
Yeah. That's the issue. With everyone and with everything.
Gold and silver are significantly more expensive than just a few short years ago. And then, on top of that, the Mint decided/realized it was leaving money on the table with respect to the premiums it was charging for numismatic product as compared to other world mints that do a fraction of the US Mint's volume.
As a result $1,000 per ounce premiums to $4500 gold, as compared to $300 premiums to $800 gold. No, it does not now cost $700 more to produce the same coin as before, but the Mint decided it could get it, so it does. Not in the same quantities, but still. And this is putting aside for the moment the fact that the Mint made a substantial profit even with the $300 premium.
As a result, things that used to cost around $1,000 now cost over $5,000, and everyone has to decide, with every release whether or not it's worth it to keep going. Knowing they are going to lose the premium if gold rises, and get killed even worse if gold falls.
The Mustang. That one baffles me. Why did it get so little attention for the entire time it was for sale only to move up so much?
Was the FH on the ABPP radar?
Did they take a full allotment of the enhanced unc AGE?
I had to Google the answer to the Mustang question:
🗓️ Sales Timeline & Performance
Launch Date: August 19, 2021 (at noon EDT).
Initial Window: Capped at 1 coin per household for the first 24 hours
Pacing: Massive early demand caused the initial allocation to shift to backorder status in under half an hour, effectively exhausting the entire product run during its debut week on the market.
We have a half hour left on the ABPP clock and they've left 2012 of them so far. Unless there's a mad scramble at the end, we should have some more available to us and some doubt will have crept in to a few collectors who might rethink buying this one too. Win-win if you were worried about being able to acquire one. (I know you were leaning away from panic here, NJ.)
ABPP left 1969, so they bought 1781 of their allotment (47%) Does this bode well for those of us who want one direct from the Mint next Thursday?
???? Because it was new, unique, and not inexpensive for the time. Unlike the usual crash and burn, the price and demand built slowly over time.
At the time, I don't remember back order being a reason people weren't buying. And, given that it wasn't "hot" I don't think anyone was looking at what ABPP was taking.
None of this matters for now. If ABPP is not taking its full allocation, these absolutely will not sell out in the first 24 hours, if at all.
Great info. Thx!
But, still, they were orderable for quite some time. I don't know why that was the case & then all of a sudden later they became so desirable.
Of course all of the UHRs are unique. Not that it matters, but I just don't understand why that one in particular, which was available for quite some time, all of the sudden went crazy when the other ones have done either nothing or done ok. I wasn't aying attention at the time , so it certainly blew by me.