@Tomthemailcarrier said:
If the U.S. Mint has them at the World’s Fair of Money I’ll be “golden.”
They will, but that could also be a lottery. You might want to line up before the open.
Unbelievable, given that this is the one people have been waiting for! They didn't sell 30K of anything to date, and THIS is the one they decide to cut back on. Unbelievable. People building sets of the medals are going to be screwed, and on the one where they probably could have actually sold all 30K.
In this case , no subscription , HHL and price may make a difference.
In the ASE enhanced case it was my fault not to subscribe, I had every opportunity I do not blame the Mint for having a sought after product.
These limited edition coins that are sought after are going to be tough to get direct from the Mint.
Maybe they can enhance human verification and that will make a difference or maybe it is just a lottery that you will be able to access.
In any case many products are limited edition and only available second tier. For example a limited edition collector watch may only be available at regular retail price if you have relationship with a retailer. Or a special edition car etc.
@Survivor50 said:
How about the USM leave in place the current ABPP guidelines, allow a small allotment for the WFoM and the stores, and then priority to a presale for accounts that have before a current cut off date, purchased BOM1, BOM2, and BOM3? That would eliminate the bots and buyer's clubs that weren't in from the start, would provide for those who are trying to get the series to have a chance, and maybe leave some for the on sale date.
Oh, and I would be able to complete a set without fighting dreaded bots 😆
Why not give long time flippers like me the first shot?
Everyone wants rules that put them first in line.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@mbr33 said:
THE ABPP gets their shot soon, although the ATS isn't listed quite yet.
Guesstimate
15,000 Mintage
-3750 ABPP’s 25%
-1250 World’s Fair and mint stores
- 100 Reserved for “insiders”
9900 left over
I'm going to guess the ABPP may be a bit higher, and that the stores and World's Fair will come out of that 9900 closer to drop day.
Nah. They won't dare go higher than 25% for ABPP. I actually don't even think it will be that high.
OTOH, could be more for the coin show and the gift shops. Either way, we are speculating about rounding errors. Maybe 9500. Maybe 11K. We will be fighting with the bots over around 10K, unless the Mint fixes that in the next 3 weeks.
@Survivor50 said:
How about the USM leave in place the current ABPP guidelines, allow a small allotment for the WFoM and the stores, and then priority to a presale for accounts that have before a current cut off date, purchased BOM1, BOM2, and BOM3? That would eliminate the bots and buyer's clubs that weren't in from the start, would provide for those who are trying to get the series to have a chance, and maybe leave some for the on sale date.
Oh, and I would be able to complete a set without fighting dreaded bots 😆
Why not give long time flippers like me the first shot?
Everyone wants rules that put them first in line.
Under my scenario, you actually would get first shot over people like me. Which would be perfectly fair, because you spend way more money with them. Don't be shocked if they eventually go to something like I described.
Not because I'm some kind of genius, but because that's what their peers do, and they have been emulating their peers with other things. First, by significantly jacking up pricing, and then by significantly cutting back on some mintage limits.
It's inevitable, unless they just want to shut the website down and sell everything through dealers, because they just don't have the resources to deal with bots given how the bots have recently stepped up their game.
@mbr33 said:
THE ABPP gets their shot soon, although the ATS isn't listed quite yet.
Guesstimate
15,000 Mintage
-3750 ABPP’s 25%
-1250 World’s Fair and mint stores
- 100 Reserved for “insiders”
9900 left over
I'm going to guess the ABPP may be a bit higher, and that the stores and World's Fair will come out of that 9900 closer to drop day.
Nah. They won't dare go higher than 25% for ABPP. I actually don't even think it will be that high.
OTOH, could be more for the coin show and the gift shops. Either way, we are speculating about rounding errors. Maybe 9500. Maybe 11K. We will be fighting with the bots over around 10K, unless the Mint fixes that in the next 3 weeks.
Will the gift shops have these?
No real way to know. They only received a tiny amount of the first ones. And then, when they didn't sell out, they got more.
Gift shops, especially Denver and Philadelphia, don't get priority because they are run by outside contractors. DC is run by the Mint itself, and they do seem to get at least a little of everything. They are the same folks who are at the booth at the shows.
It will interesting to see what happens with these at the show. They definitely planned the release for the show, but neither they nor the ANA are going to want a repeat of what happened in Chicago with the gold Kennedys.
They like a buzz. They hate a frenzy. So they are going to have to figure something out that does not involve homeless people camping out overnight, or they just might pull them from the show and add them to what they sell online. Stay tuned.
The bottom line is that you won't know until it happens. You can call the shops, but most of the time they don't even know. I have seen them both think they are getting things they don't get, and get things they were not expecting.
@Survivor50 said:
How about the USM leave in place the current ABPP guidelines, allow a small allotment for the WFoM and the stores, and then priority to a presale for accounts that have before a current cut off date, purchased BOM1, BOM2, and BOM3? That would eliminate the bots and buyer's clubs that weren't in from the start, would provide for those who are trying to get the series to have a chance, and maybe leave some for the on sale date.
Oh, and I would be able to complete a set without fighting dreaded bots 😆
Why not give long time flippers like me the first shot?
Everyone wants rules that put them first in line.
Under my scenario, you actually would get first shot over people like me. Which would be perfectly fair, because you spend way more money with them. Don't be shocked if they eventually go to something like I described.
Not because I'm some kind of genius, but because that's what their peers do, and they have been emulating their peers with other things. First, by significantly jacking up pricing, and then by significantly cutting back on some mintage limits.
It's inevitable, unless they just want to shut the website down and sell everything through dealers, because they just don't have the resources to deal with bots given how the bots have recently stepped up their game.
I'm not really worried about it. Just seems like everyone always wants to change the rules in a way that benefits them.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@Survivor50 said:
How about the USM leave in place the current ABPP guidelines, allow a small allotment for the WFoM and the stores, and then priority to a presale for accounts that have before a current cut off date, purchased BOM1, BOM2, and BOM3? That would eliminate the bots and buyer's clubs that weren't in from the start, would provide for those who are trying to get the series to have a chance, and maybe leave some for the on sale date.
Oh, and I would be able to complete a set without fighting dreaded bots 😆
Why not give long time flippers like me the first shot?
Everyone wants rules that put them first in line.
Under my scenario, you actually would get first shot over people like me. Which would be perfectly fair, because you spend way more money with them. Don't be shocked if they eventually go to something like I described.
Not because I'm some kind of genius, but because that's what their peers do, and they have been emulating their peers with other things. First, by significantly jacking up pricing, and then by significantly cutting back on some mintage limits.
It's inevitable, unless they just want to shut the website down and sell everything through dealers, because they just don't have the resources to deal with bots given how the bots have recently stepped up their game.
I'm not really worried about it. Just seems like everyone always wants to change the rules in a way that benefits them.
@Raufus said:
Sounds like my son will make a few bucks standing in line at the DC shop & hope for the best.
Great idea !
Actually, perhaps some mother & son time - 2 is better than 1 😀 (no way I can get off work). If they even have any of course.
It's also worth keeping in mind that we here might be freaking out over nothing. This is going to be the most expensive entry in the series. By far.
We are freaking out because we, here, are the target market for this particular coin. The entire series thus far has been met with a big yawn in the hobby. 15K might turn out to be the right number, the bots might not come out (although I have a bad feeling they will), and we might be able to get as many as we want at $5K+ each.
The last thing that was similar was the 2024 FH gold. It had a final mintage of 10K, and sells raw today for around $6,300. As a result, 15K at over $5K, even including a silver medal, should be good, but is not necessarily the screaming deal that will bring out the bots. Not after 2K gold Liberty Bells fell flat, and not given the tepid reception the rest of the series has received thus far.
I'm actually on the fence, but offer this as a counter point to guaranteed 2 minute sell out.
@Raufus said:
Sounds like my son will make a few bucks standing in line at the DC shop & hope for the best.
Great idea !
Actually, perhaps some mother & son time - 2 is better than 1 😀 (no way I can get off work). If they even have any of course.
I’ll keep you posted if I come up with one via the site. If not, the Mrs can grab me one too. 🤣🤣🤣
I'll be trying the site also, if I can get computer access at the time. I'm assuming that the bots will make it impossible. No idea if the Mint store will have them, or, if they do, how many or how early the line will form. I'll find out.
@Raufus said:
Sounds like my son will make a few bucks standing in line at the DC shop & hope for the best.
Great idea !
Actually, perhaps some mother & son time - 2 is better than 1 😀 (no way I can get off work). If they even have any of course.
It's also worth keeping in mind that we here might be freaking out over nothing. This is going to be the most expensive entry in the series. By far.
We are freaking out because we, here, are the target market for this particular coin. The entire series thus far has been met with a big yawn in the hobby. 15K might turn out to be the right number, the bots might not come out (although I have a bad feeling they will), and we might be able to get as many as we want at $5K+ each.
The last thing that was similar was the 2024 FH gold. It had a final mintage of 10K, and sells raw today for around $6,300. As a result, 15K at over $5K, even including a silver medal, should be good, but is not necessarily the screaming deal that will bring out the bots. Not after 2K gold Liberty Bells fell flat, and not given the tepid reception the rest of the series has received thus far.
I'm actually on the fence, but offer this as a counter point to guaranteed 2 minute sell out.
Great points.
We live so close to DC it's not much of a hassle to try.
I want one just because I like the design. If I can get two (wife and son) I'll see how they do.
I remember buying the FH. I was totally on the fence. We had just landed in Boston and were driving to NH. It was so expensive (I thought at the time) I was on the fence. I never thought that it would be a fast sell-out. I pulled over, logged in and got one immediately. I was stunned by the sell-out. Of course, today, with the bots, that would not happen. I left it in the OGP. It's one of my favorite coins. I'm so glad that I bought one.
The BM4's 15,000 mintage is right in line with this years Proof Buffalo, fairly close to the last three Liberty Series coins at 12k & 12,500, and not too far off from the FHG.
12,500 for these would be the sweet spot for a red-hot release.
However since so many want this one, the public share of +/- 9k will be gone in under 5 min as it is?..
@Raufus said:
Sounds like my son will make a few bucks standing in line at the DC shop & hope for the best.
Great idea !
Actually, perhaps some mother & son time - 2 is better than 1 😀 (no way I can get off work). If they even have any of course.
It's also worth keeping in mind that we here might be freaking out over nothing. This is going to be the most expensive entry in the series. By far.
We are freaking out because we, here, are the target market for this particular coin. The entire series thus far has been met with a big yawn in the hobby. 15K might turn out to be the right number, the bots might not come out (although I have a bad feeling they will), and we might be able to get as many as we want at $5K+ each.
The last thing that was similar was the 2024 FH gold. It had a final mintage of 10K, and sells raw today for around $6,300. As a result, 15K at over $5K, even including a silver medal, should be good, but is not necessarily the screaming deal that will bring out the bots. Not after 2K gold Liberty Bells fell flat, and not given the tepid reception the rest of the series has received thus far.
I'm actually on the fence, but offer this as a counter point to guaranteed 2 minute sell out.
I tend to agree.
The only caveat I would add is the Mint return policy. With the gold bells, the buyers groups were telling their people to try them and return them if it doesn't work. This issue could totally bomb and still sell out in 3 minutes with bot activity... followed by 8,000 returns.
[Not that I think it will bomb. 15,000 might be the right number. ]
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I’ll be in Pittsburgh at the WFOM the Thursday they go on sale. Prepass and early bird badge in hand. I will be in line at the Mint booth. I’m hoping to be one of the first in line to get this release. But we will see what goes on that day. I plan on taking pics and reporting the situation. I’m hoping the Mint brings a few hundred which I think is realistic. TBD as NJ says!!
@Manorcourtman said:
I’ll be in Pittsburgh at the WFOM the Thursday they go on sale. Prepass and early bird badge in hand. I will be in line at the Mint booth. I’m hoping to be one of the first in line to get this release. But we will see what goes on that day. I plan on taking pics and reporting the situation. I’m hoping the Mint brings a few hundred which I think is realistic. TBD as NJ says!!
It will be at least that many. Or none, if they are worried about repeating what happened in Rosemont 10 years ago.
It would be nice if they just gave out tickets to allow people to purchase without having to stand in line for hours, but that would make too much sense, so they probably won't do it. If they incentivize you to stand in line on Thursday, what's going to stop people from camping out Wednesday night?
All this said, if it isn't going to be insane, I could see them going as high as 1,000 for a show like this. After all, why not reward people at the "biggest" show of the year, if most of the rest are going to be going to ABPP dealers and bots?
@Manorcourtman said:
I’ll be in Pittsburgh at the WFOM the Thursday they go on sale. Prepass and early bird badge in hand. I will be in line at the Mint booth. I’m hoping to be one of the first in line to get this release. But we will see what goes on that day. I plan on taking pics and reporting the situation. I’m hoping the Mint brings a few hundred which I think is realistic. TBD as NJ says!!
If you haven't already ordered one, be sure to check out the ANA WFoM medal.
Comments
Perfectly stated.
The bots & buyers clubs will be full on.
The higher the price the better for the buyers clubs as the credit card spend is greater. Sucks
In this case , no subscription , HHL and price may make a difference.
In the ASE enhanced case it was my fault not to subscribe, I had every opportunity I do not blame the Mint for having a sought after product.
These limited edition coins that are sought after are going to be tough to get direct from the Mint.
Maybe they can enhance human verification and that will make a difference or maybe it is just a lottery that you will be able to access.
In any case many products are limited edition and only available second tier. For example a limited edition collector watch may only be available at regular retail price if you have relationship with a retailer. Or a special edition car etc.
Why not give long time flippers like me the first shot?
Everyone wants rules that put them first in line.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Will the gift shops have these?
Under my scenario, you actually would get first shot over people like me. Which would be perfectly fair, because you spend way more money with them. Don't be shocked if they eventually go to something like I described.
Not because I'm some kind of genius, but because that's what their peers do, and they have been emulating their peers with other things. First, by significantly jacking up pricing, and then by significantly cutting back on some mintage limits.
It's inevitable, unless they just want to shut the website down and sell everything through dealers, because they just don't have the resources to deal with bots given how the bots have recently stepped up their game.
No real way to know. They only received a tiny amount of the first ones. And then, when they didn't sell out, they got more.
Gift shops, especially Denver and Philadelphia, don't get priority because they are run by outside contractors. DC is run by the Mint itself, and they do seem to get at least a little of everything. They are the same folks who are at the booth at the shows.
It will interesting to see what happens with these at the show. They definitely planned the release for the show, but neither they nor the ANA are going to want a repeat of what happened in Chicago with the gold Kennedys.
They like a buzz. They hate a frenzy. So they are going to have to figure something out that does not involve homeless people camping out overnight, or they just might pull them from the show and add them to what they sell online. Stay tuned.
The bottom line is that you won't know until it happens. You can call the shops, but most of the time they don't even know. I have seen them both think they are getting things they don't get, and get things they were not expecting.
I'm not really worried about it. Just seems like everyone always wants to change the rules in a way that benefits them.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
AGREE. Human nature.
Sounds like my son will make a few bucks standing in line at the DC shop & hope for the best.
Great idea !
ONLY if he comes back with one. 😜
Lol. I think I have to pay him regardless for the effort. Of course , I have paid for most of his life , but still...
Actually, perhaps some mother & son time - 2 is better than 1 😀 (no way I can get off work). If they even have any of course.
I’ll keep you posted if I come up with one via the site. If not, the Mrs can grab me one too. 🤣🤣🤣
It's also worth keeping in mind that we here might be freaking out over nothing. This is going to be the most expensive entry in the series. By far.
We are freaking out because we, here, are the target market for this particular coin. The entire series thus far has been met with a big yawn in the hobby. 15K might turn out to be the right number, the bots might not come out (although I have a bad feeling they will), and we might be able to get as many as we want at $5K+ each.
The last thing that was similar was the 2024 FH gold. It had a final mintage of 10K, and sells raw today for around $6,300. As a result, 15K at over $5K, even including a silver medal, should be good, but is not necessarily the screaming deal that will bring out the bots. Not after 2K gold Liberty Bells fell flat, and not given the tepid reception the rest of the series has received thus far.
I'm actually on the fence, but offer this as a counter point to guaranteed 2 minute sell out.
I'll be trying the site also, if I can get computer access at the time. I'm assuming that the bots will make it impossible. No idea if the Mint store will have them, or, if they do, how many or how early the line will form. I'll find out.
Great points.
We live so close to DC it's not much of a hassle to try.
I want one just because I like the design. If I can get two (wife and son) I'll see how they do.
I remember buying the FH. I was totally on the fence. We had just landed in Boston and were driving to NH. It was so expensive (I thought at the time) I was on the fence. I never thought that it would be a fast sell-out. I pulled over, logged in and got one immediately. I was stunned by the sell-out. Of course, today, with the bots, that would not happen. I left it in the OGP. It's one of my favorite coins. I'm so glad that I bought one.
The BM4's 15,000 mintage is right in line with this years Proof Buffalo, fairly close to the last three Liberty Series coins at 12k & 12,500, and not too far off from the FHG.
12,500 for these would be the sweet spot for a red-hot release.
However since so many want this one, the public share of +/- 9k will be gone in under 5 min as it is?..
I tend to agree.
The only caveat I would add is the Mint return policy. With the gold bells, the buyers groups were telling their people to try them and return them if it doesn't work. This issue could totally bomb and still sell out in 3 minutes with bot activity... followed by 8,000 returns.
[Not that I think it will bomb. 15,000 might be the right number. ]
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Will be interesting to see if the BOM5 Saint gets 15k or 30k mintage. If I can get this one I'll probably buy BOM3, already have 1&2.
I’ll be in Pittsburgh at the WFOM the Thursday they go on sale. Prepass and early bird badge in hand. I will be in line at the Mint booth. I’m hoping to be one of the first in line to get this release. But we will see what goes on that day. I plan on taking pics and reporting the situation. I’m hoping the Mint brings a few hundred which I think is realistic. TBD as NJ says!!
Maybe those of us who can’t get these at release will get lucky and pick them up “cheap” next year when gold drops to $3000.
Hey! A guy can dream, can’t he??
It will be at least that many. Or none, if they are worried about repeating what happened in Rosemont 10 years ago.
It would be nice if they just gave out tickets to allow people to purchase without having to stand in line for hours, but that would make too much sense, so they probably won't do it. If they incentivize you to stand in line on Thursday, what's going to stop people from camping out Wednesday night?
All this said, if it isn't going to be insane, I could see them going as high as 1,000 for a show like this. After all, why not reward people at the "biggest" show of the year, if most of the rest are going to be going to ABPP dealers and bots?
If you haven't already ordered one, be sure to check out the ANA WFoM medal.