No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
The whole reason they are not selling now is not because people are shunning over priced Liberty Bells. The silver medals are proving that. It's because there is no dealer bid. Because there is no resale market after having to buy these at $10-20K each, even with no secondary market flip.
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
@fathom said:
They're not going to take any drastic measures to move bells. They leave them on the site.
It's not a fiscal disaster, you are talking about miniscule numbers for the Mint.
They tested the waters, it didn't work out for the many reasons posted.
They are nice tree ornaments for the 1%ers.
Mostly agree, with one exception. Given that it's a failed experiment, they are unlikely to leave them sitting indefinitely, hanging over the market.
Simply no reason to do that to the people who bought them. Maybe they'll have some legs if the final mintage comes in at less than 1,000, which might then encourage people to take a shot if the Mint wants to try something like this in the future. Especially when they are no longer relevant after the 250th is long past.
Sure, anything can happen with the Mint, but it will be surprising to see 1,000+ of those one ounce gold Liberty Bells sitting unloved and unsold on the website this time next year when they can just take the hit and convert them back into cash money.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
Sigh... no, they won't. The Mint does not negotiate that way. They have fixed discounts to bulk buyers. If they start negotiating with a single buyer, they will have a revolt by all the other bulk buyers.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
Sigh... no, they won't. The Mint does not negotiate that way. They have fixed discounts to bulk buyers. If they start negotiating with a single buyer, they will have a revolt by all the other bulk buyers.
I watched a video with a big dealer in California and he specifically discussed how he called the mint and bought out a bunch of remaining stale inventory. I don't remember the wording or the specifics but I believe he negotiated a special deal which he obviously didn't get into details on. That's what I base that comment on.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
Sigh... no, they won't. The Mint does not negotiate that way. They have fixed discounts to bulk buyers. If they start negotiating with a single buyer, they will have a revolt by all the other bulk buyers.
I watched a video with a big dealer in California and he specifically discussed how he called the mint and bought out a bunch of remaining stale inventory. I don't remember the wording or the specifics but I believe he negotiated a special deal which he obviously didn't get into details on. That's what I base that comment on.
If he's not a bulk buyer, they might have extended the bulk discount. I would like some evidence of special terms being extended to a single large dealer before I'm willing to believe it.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I love this place for the numismatic experience that I can learn from...
I hate this place because of all the "Parents" with their expert opinions and that ABSOLUTELY know everything about the inner workings of the Mint and their business practices. That Community College education is paying life dividends!
Progressive should definitely come by this place for some ideas on future commercials!
@HoneyMarket said:
I love this place for the numismatic experience that I can learn from...
I hate this place because of all the "Parents" with their expert opinions and that ABSOLUTELY know everything about the inner workings of the Mint and their business practices. That Community College education is paying life dividends!
Progressive should definitely come by this place for some ideas on future commercials!
The "parents" often have decades of experience with the Mint including direct or indirect access through bulk buyer programs.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
I don't think it's going to happen but I wouldn't write it off as an impossibility either.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
The press is now capital equipment that can and will be used for many more products to come, and it was used for the ~2800 gold units sold and 2026 silver units sold. To date, they've sold 80% of the units produced with this equipment. Any cost allocated to this product for the equipment is essentially recovered.
I admit the other costs are not nothing but hey are also not significant. Mints like Agoro regularly produce stuff with non-round planchets and they are able to do it at fairly reasonable prices. And on a side note - with custom capsules that fit the coins perfectly.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
Same with you. You could also admit that you are just speculating and may be wrong rather than asserting guesses as facts.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
You are not correct (yet) because because you cannot predict the future. In a few months we'll know. Until then, admit you that this is what you expect to happen and not a certainty.
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
3/4 of the 1/2oz are gone. Almost 2/3 of the 1oz are gone. Aside from ~50 gold listings on ebay, they are in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
This was not a product for "most people." That's what you don't get. The people who bought these to keep can afford them.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
I'm looking at the same data. Sales continue. The returns will dry up as the return window closes. Your criteria is that it has to sell out in one day to be successful. Mine is that a sell out by the end of the year is success. Different opinions, but you pretend that you know the future when you are repeatedly shown that you do not. My prediction will be proven or disproven on Dec 31.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
I don't think it's going to happen but I wouldn't write it off as an impossibility either.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
The press is now capital equipment that can and will be used for many more products to come, and it was used for the ~2800 gold units sold and 2026 silver units sold. To date, they've sold 80% of the units produced with this equipment. Any cost allocated to this product for the equipment is essentially recovered.
I admit the other costs are not nothing but hey are also not significant. Mints like Agoro regularly produce stuff with non-round planchets and they are able to do it at fairly reasonable prices. And on a side note - with custom capsules that fit the coins perfectly.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
Same with you. You could also admit that you are just speculating and may be wrong rather than asserting guesses as facts.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
You are not correct (yet) because because you cannot predict the future. In a few months we'll know. Until then, admit you that this is what you expect to happen and not a certainty.
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
3/4 of the 1/2oz are gone. Almost 2/3 of the 1oz are gone. Aside from ~50 gold listings on ebay, they are in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
This was not a product for "most people." That's what you don't get. The people who bought these to keep can afford them.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
I'm looking at the same data. Sales continue. The returns will dry up as the return window closes. Your criteria is that it has to sell out in one day to be successful. Mine is that a sell out by the end of the year is success. Different opinions, but you pretend that you know the future when you are repeatedly shown that you do not. My prediction will be proven or disproven on Dec 31.
At the risk of just going around and around, you are basing your thoughts on looking at ATS at the beginning of a day, subtracting what comes out during the day, and then extrapolating to an eventual sell out. You are ignoring the elephant in the room - that there are no dealer bids, that the few people actually interested in keeping them are colossally disappointed with the quality, the reported published advice from the buyers clubs for their members to return them, and, most importantly, @coiner's first hand account of the time consuming, detailed, unique return process for these specific coins.
Added together, we know, not speculating, but know, that several hundred of both coins will be returned to ATS in the next few weeks that are not yet accounted for. You are starting from 3/4 and 2/3 of maximum mintage and counting down. I, and most others, are starting from there and counting up based on guaranteed returns that have not yet been processed.
So, the Mint will not be spreading the cost of its fancy new press over $62 million in gross sales, but, rather, a small fraction of that. A lot less than half when the dust settles.
Then, given what a disappointment these are, and how they are really the specialty of small specialty mints like PAMP, the question remains what the Mint is going to do with that fancy new press going forward? Try to make things in quantity, or still in small batches, but at far lower price points?
TBD, but, given what a rip off I thought $750 half ounce silver medals were, if that's the sweet spot, will interest remain if they keep pumping out low mintage low value medals at $750?
By the way, I absolutely DO get that this was never meant to be a product for the masses. And yet, it was the masses that accounted for the quick sell out, expecting a flip to the elite. A flip that did not manifest, because the elite apparently have very little interest in $10-20K gold coins shaped like bells that sell for 5x intrinsic value with a mintage in the low thousands rather than low hundreds.
As I correctly predicted. I could not have been more wrong about demand for $750 half ounce silver medals in the same shape. Live and learn.
But I am admitting that mistake. You are not, because forever is a long time, and you are willing to wait, without acknowledging that, in that same time, people could also get tired of the silver and it could fall back to earth.
You are taking the win and calling it a day on the silver, while insisting on indefinite extra time for the gold. Heads you win, tails it's too soon to tell. I get it now.
2/3 and 3/4, without an acknowledgement that those numbers will be going down, not up, as returns are processed and overwhelm whatever incremental additional sales they manage to book before the action totally stops. Because many of them are not "in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products." Many are in boxes on their way back to the Mint, or waiting for shipping labels before beginning their return trip.
Again, no need to argue this point. You'll see for yourself in a few weeks. Just please check back in when the ATS numbers start to pop up, as you surely will if you turn out to be right and ATS suddenly takes a major dip. I'm not going anywhere, and will always admit when I am wrong.
It amazes me that the same two folks ALWAYS think they have all the answers.
They are just speculating - but for some of us it isnt our first rodeo. Weve seen the writing on the wall.
@coiner said:
It amazes me that the same two folks ALWAYS think they have all the answers.
They are just speculating - but for some of us it isnt our first rodeo. Weve seen the writing on the wall.
And you are just speculating - with less historical basis.
You can hallucinate paranoid delusions all you want, but there is no evidence that they ever do this or would ever do this.
When you look at the ridiculously small discounts the biggest of the big get, you realize how little favoritism the Mint shows.
Theyve done it already.
No, they haven't. They did a sealed bid sale and publicly announced that they had done so, including the results. (See the previously posted Coin World article.)
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yeah. I wonder why it wasn't just returned to the Mint. Which causes me to call its veracity into question, same as with all of the pre-sales.
Just not sure what the seller gets out of taking a $4,000 hit on something that could be returned for a full refund. Even crazier if the seller cannot return it because they bought on a pre-sale and are not bailing out of fear over where it's going. Just makes no sense, so I'm not sure it's real.
@Rc5280 said:
The one who's most disinterested (the King of argumentative snide, mind you) in the Bells from the very beginning (every page, mind you) sure does talk, spread disinformation, and speculate a lot about the Bells.
Yeah. I wonder why it wasn't just returned to the Mint. Which causes me to call its veracity into question, same as with all of the pre-sales.
Just not sure what the seller gets out of taking a $4,000 hit on something that could be returned for a full refund. Even crazier if the seller cannot return it because they bought on a pre-sale and are not bailing out of fear over where it's going. Just makes no sense, so I'm not sure it's real.
While it does make more sense to return it, it was put up as an auction-style listing….and that’s the best it could do. $4000 less than Mint price.
I feel it’s a legit auction, but I would bet it doesn’t end with the buyer receiving the coin. Smarter to return it to the Mint if possible and take the negative feedback hit. If it does end up being completed with the buyer getting a damned good (yet not good enough) discount, then the seller and thousands more like him/her won’t participate in this type of mint release ever again.
It is among the many things you said would or could happen with this release and you will have been proven correct as far as the golds go.
Yeah. I wonder why it wasn't just returned to the Mint. Which causes me to call its veracity into question, same as with all of the pre-sales.
Just not sure what the seller gets out of taking a $4,000 hit on something that could be returned for a full refund. Even crazier if the seller cannot return it because they bought on a pre-sale and are not bailing out of fear over where it's going. Just makes no sense, so I'm not sure it's real.
While it does make more sense to return it, it was put up as an auction-style listing….and that’s the best it could do. $4000 less than Mint price.
I feel it’s a legit auction, but I would bet it doesn’t end with the buyer receiving the coin. Smarter to return it to the Mint if possible and take the negative feedback hit. If it does end up being completed with the buyer getting a damned good (yet not good enough) discount, then the seller and thousands more like him/her won’t participate in this type of mint release ever again.
It is among the many things you said would or could happen with this release and you will have been proven correct as far as the golds go.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
I don't think it's going to happen but I wouldn't write it off as an impossibility either.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
The press is now capital equipment that can and will be used for many more products to come, and it was used for the ~2800 gold units sold and 2026 silver units sold. To date, they've sold 80% of the units produced with this equipment. Any cost allocated to this product for the equipment is essentially recovered.
I admit the other costs are not nothing but hey are also not significant. Mints like Agoro regularly produce stuff with non-round planchets and they are able to do it at fairly reasonable prices. And on a side note - with custom capsules that fit the coins perfectly.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
Same with you. You could also admit that you are just speculating and may be wrong rather than asserting guesses as facts.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
You are not correct (yet) because because you cannot predict the future. In a few months we'll know. Until then, admit you that this is what you expect to happen and not a certainty.
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
3/4 of the 1/2oz are gone. Almost 2/3 of the 1oz are gone. Aside from ~50 gold listings on ebay, they are in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
This was not a product for "most people." That's what you don't get. The people who bought these to keep can afford them.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
I'm looking at the same data. Sales continue. The returns will dry up as the return window closes. Your criteria is that it has to sell out in one day to be successful. Mine is that a sell out by the end of the year is success. Different opinions, but you pretend that you know the future when you are repeatedly shown that you do not. My prediction will be proven or disproven on Dec 31.
At the risk of just going around and around, you are basing your thoughts on looking at ATS at the beginning of a day, subtracting what comes out during the day, and then extrapolating to an eventual sell out. You are ignoring the elephant in the room - that there are no dealer bids, that the few people actually interested in keeping them are colossally disappointed with the quality, the reported published advice from the buyers clubs for their members to return them, and, most importantly, @coiner's first hand account of the time consuming, detailed, unique return process for these specific coins.
What you don't get is that the return window is finite. There's maybe a couple more days for the straggling orders to notify the mint and return them. Assuming they are processed in a reasonable time, inventory adds from returns will stop in a week or two. The sales - 5-15/day - will continue until they are sold out.
Added together, we know, not speculating, but know, that several hundred of both coins will be returned to ATS in the next few weeks that are not yet accounted for. You are starting from 3/4 and 2/3 of maximum mintage and counting down. I, and most others, are starting from there and counting up based on guaranteed returns that have not yet been processed.
See above. The returns can't go on forever. The window is closing.
So, the Mint will not be spreading the cost of its fancy new press over $62 million in gross sales, but, rather, a small fraction of that. A lot less than half when the dust settles.
Then, given what a disappointment these are, and how they are really the specialty of small specialty mints like PAMP, the question remains what the Mint is going to do with that fancy new press going forward? Try to make things in quantity, or still in small batches, but at far lower price points?
I'm sure we'll be seeing lots of interesting things. What, do you think they are just going to let the machine collect dust?
TBD, but, given what a rip off I thought $750 half ounce silver medals were, if that's the sweet spot, will interest remain if they keep pumping out low mintage low value medals at $750?
By the way, I absolutely DO get that this was never meant to be a product for the masses. And yet, it was the masses that accounted for the quick sell out, expecting a flip to the elite. A flip that did not manifest, because the elite apparently have very little interest in $10-20K gold coins shaped like bells that sell for 5x intrinsic value with a mintage in the low thousands rather than low hundreds.
Yes, the masses convoluted the sales process. The coins will eventually end up where they were always going to go.
As I correctly predicted. I could not have been more wrong about demand for $750 half ounce silver medals in the same shape. Live and learn.
But I am admitting that mistake. You are not, because forever is a long time, and you are willing to wait, without acknowledging that, in that same time, people could also get tired of the silver and it could fall back to earth.
You are taking the win and calling it a day on the silver, while insisting on indefinite extra time for the gold. Heads you win, tails it's too soon to tell. I get it now.
I thought I had been more than clear when repeatedly saying they will be gone by the end of the year. That is not an indefinite time. Far from it. I have also made the argument many times that a 6 month sell-through would be a huge success. I have not wavered on this. To repeat my previous post, I will be proved right or wrong on or before Dec 31, 2026.
2/3 and 3/4, without an acknowledgement that those numbers will be going down, not up, as returns are processed and overwhelm whatever incremental additional sales they manage to book before the action totally stops. Because many of them are not "in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products." Many are in boxes on their way back to the Mint, or waiting for shipping labels before beginning their return trip.
Again, no need to argue this point. You'll see for yourself in a few weeks. Just please check back in when the ATS numbers start to pop up, as you surely will if you turn out to be right and ATS suddenly takes a major dip. I'm not going anywhere, and will always admit when I am wrong.
Yeah. I wonder why it wasn't just returned to the Mint. Which causes me to call its veracity into question, same as with all of the pre-sales.
Just not sure what the seller gets out of taking a $4,000 hit on something that could be returned for a full refund. Even crazier if the seller cannot return it because they bought on a pre-sale and are not bailing out of fear over where it's going. Just makes no sense, so I'm not sure it's real.
While it does make more sense to return it, it was put up as an auction-style listing….and that’s the best it could do. $4000 less than Mint price.
I feel it’s a legit auction, but I would bet it doesn’t end with the buyer receiving the coin. Smarter to return it to the Mint if possible and take the negative feedback hit. If it does end up being completed with the buyer getting a damned good (yet not good enough) discount, then the seller and thousands more like him/her won’t participate in this type of mint release ever again.
It is among the many things you said would or could happen with this release and you will have been proven correct as far as the golds go.
I agree , why take a $4000 bath ! Makes no sense
If I were the seller, I would ship it.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
I don't think it's going to happen but I wouldn't write it off as an impossibility either.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
The press is now capital equipment that can and will be used for many more products to come, and it was used for the ~2800 gold units sold and 2026 silver units sold. To date, they've sold 80% of the units produced with this equipment. Any cost allocated to this product for the equipment is essentially recovered.
I admit the other costs are not nothing but hey are also not significant. Mints like Agoro regularly produce stuff with non-round planchets and they are able to do it at fairly reasonable prices. And on a side note - with custom capsules that fit the coins perfectly.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
Same with you. You could also admit that you are just speculating and may be wrong rather than asserting guesses as facts.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
You are not correct (yet) because because you cannot predict the future. In a few months we'll know. Until then, admit you that this is what you expect to happen and not a certainty.
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
3/4 of the 1/2oz are gone. Almost 2/3 of the 1oz are gone. Aside from ~50 gold listings on ebay, they are in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
This was not a product for "most people." That's what you don't get. The people who bought these to keep can afford them.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
I'm looking at the same data. Sales continue. The returns will dry up as the return window closes. Your criteria is that it has to sell out in one day to be successful. Mine is that a sell out by the end of the year is success. Different opinions, but you pretend that you know the future when you are repeatedly shown that you do not. My prediction will be proven or disproven on Dec 31.
At the risk of just going around and around, you are basing your thoughts on looking at ATS at the beginning of a day, subtracting what comes out during the day, and then extrapolating to an eventual sell out. You are ignoring the elephant in the room - that there are no dealer bids, that the few people actually interested in keeping them are colossally disappointed with the quality, the reported published advice from the buyers clubs for their members to return them, and, most importantly, @coiner's first hand account of the time consuming, detailed, unique return process for these specific coins.
What you don't get is that the return window is finite. There's maybe a couple more days for the straggling orders to notify the mint and return them. Assuming they are processed in a reasonable time, inventory adds from returns will stop in a week or two. The sales - 5-15/day - will continue until they are sold out.
Added together, we know, not speculating, but know, that several hundred of both coins will be returned to ATS in the next few weeks that are not yet accounted for. You are starting from 3/4 and 2/3 of maximum mintage and counting down. I, and most others, are starting from there and counting up based on guaranteed returns that have not yet been processed.
See above. The returns can't go on forever. The window is closing.
So, the Mint will not be spreading the cost of its fancy new press over $62 million in gross sales, but, rather, a small fraction of that. A lot less than half when the dust settles.
Then, given what a disappointment these are, and how they are really the specialty of small specialty mints like PAMP, the question remains what the Mint is going to do with that fancy new press going forward? Try to make things in quantity, or still in small batches, but at far lower price points?
I'm sure we'll be seeing lots of interesting things. What, do you think they are just going to let the machine collect dust?
TBD, but, given what a rip off I thought $750 half ounce silver medals were, if that's the sweet spot, will interest remain if they keep pumping out low mintage low value medals at $750?
By the way, I absolutely DO get that this was never meant to be a product for the masses. And yet, it was the masses that accounted for the quick sell out, expecting a flip to the elite. A flip that did not manifest, because the elite apparently have very little interest in $10-20K gold coins shaped like bells that sell for 5x intrinsic value with a mintage in the low thousands rather than low hundreds.
Yes, the masses convoluted the sales process. The coins will eventually end up where they were always going to go.
As I correctly predicted. I could not have been more wrong about demand for $750 half ounce silver medals in the same shape. Live and learn.
But I am admitting that mistake. You are not, because forever is a long time, and you are willing to wait, without acknowledging that, in that same time, people could also get tired of the silver and it could fall back to earth.
You are taking the win and calling it a day on the silver, while insisting on indefinite extra time for the gold. Heads you win, tails it's too soon to tell. I get it now.
I thought I had been more than clear when repeatedly saying they will be gone by the end of the year. That is not an indefinite time. Far from it. I have also made the argument many times that a 6 month sell-through would be a huge success. I have not wavered on this. To repeat my previous post, I will be proved right or wrong on or before Dec 31, 2026.
2/3 and 3/4, without an acknowledgement that those numbers will be going down, not up, as returns are processed and overwhelm whatever incremental additional sales they manage to book before the action totally stops. Because many of them are not "in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products." Many are in boxes on their way back to the Mint, or waiting for shipping labels before beginning their return trip.
Again, no need to argue this point. You'll see for yourself in a few weeks. Just please check back in when the ATS numbers start to pop up, as you surely will if you turn out to be right and ATS suddenly takes a major dip. I'm not going anywhere, and will always admit when I am wrong.
We'll see on Dec 31.
While the window is finite, you are ignoring 3 things:
1. The new labels being sent will delay the return shipping.
2. They don't automatically add returns to the ATS. They inspect them first. There could be weeks before they get added.
3. Like the return window, the 5-15 per day rate won't go on forever either.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
No. They won't. They don't usually do that and no big boy wants them.
And if they heavily discounted them, they would drop the value for all the previous buyers.
If they do what they did the one time they did it, a 10% discount is not going to get any big boy interested.
Dont be so sure of yourself.
Heavily discounted in a transaction you will never know the details.
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
I don't think it's going to happen but I wouldn't write it off as an impossibility either.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
The press is now capital equipment that can and will be used for many more products to come, and it was used for the ~2800 gold units sold and 2026 silver units sold. To date, they've sold 80% of the units produced with this equipment. Any cost allocated to this product for the equipment is essentially recovered.
I admit the other costs are not nothing but hey are also not significant. Mints like Agoro regularly produce stuff with non-round planchets and they are able to do it at fairly reasonable prices. And on a side note - with custom capsules that fit the coins perfectly.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
Same with you. You could also admit that you are just speculating and may be wrong rather than asserting guesses as facts.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
You are not correct (yet) because because you cannot predict the future. In a few months we'll know. Until then, admit you that this is what you expect to happen and not a certainty.
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
3/4 of the 1/2oz are gone. Almost 2/3 of the 1oz are gone. Aside from ~50 gold listings on ebay, they are in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
This was not a product for "most people." That's what you don't get. The people who bought these to keep can afford them.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
I'm looking at the same data. Sales continue. The returns will dry up as the return window closes. Your criteria is that it has to sell out in one day to be successful. Mine is that a sell out by the end of the year is success. Different opinions, but you pretend that you know the future when you are repeatedly shown that you do not. My prediction will be proven or disproven on Dec 31.
At the risk of just going around and around, you are basing your thoughts on looking at ATS at the beginning of a day, subtracting what comes out during the day, and then extrapolating to an eventual sell out. You are ignoring the elephant in the room - that there are no dealer bids, that the few people actually interested in keeping them are colossally disappointed with the quality, the reported published advice from the buyers clubs for their members to return them, and, most importantly, @coiner's first hand account of the time consuming, detailed, unique return process for these specific coins.
What you don't get is that the return window is finite. There's maybe a couple more days for the straggling orders to notify the mint and return them. Assuming they are processed in a reasonable time, inventory adds from returns will stop in a week or two. The sales - 5-15/day - will continue until they are sold out.
Added together, we know, not speculating, but know, that several hundred of both coins will be returned to ATS in the next few weeks that are not yet accounted for. You are starting from 3/4 and 2/3 of maximum mintage and counting down. I, and most others, are starting from there and counting up based on guaranteed returns that have not yet been processed.
See above. The returns can't go on forever. The window is closing.
So, the Mint will not be spreading the cost of its fancy new press over $62 million in gross sales, but, rather, a small fraction of that. A lot less than half when the dust settles.
Then, given what a disappointment these are, and how they are really the specialty of small specialty mints like PAMP, the question remains what the Mint is going to do with that fancy new press going forward? Try to make things in quantity, or still in small batches, but at far lower price points?
I'm sure we'll be seeing lots of interesting things. What, do you think they are just going to let the machine collect dust?
TBD, but, given what a rip off I thought $750 half ounce silver medals were, if that's the sweet spot, will interest remain if they keep pumping out low mintage low value medals at $750?
By the way, I absolutely DO get that this was never meant to be a product for the masses. And yet, it was the masses that accounted for the quick sell out, expecting a flip to the elite. A flip that did not manifest, because the elite apparently have very little interest in $10-20K gold coins shaped like bells that sell for 5x intrinsic value with a mintage in the low thousands rather than low hundreds.
Yes, the masses convoluted the sales process. The coins will eventually end up where they were always going to go.
As I correctly predicted. I could not have been more wrong about demand for $750 half ounce silver medals in the same shape. Live and learn.
But I am admitting that mistake. You are not, because forever is a long time, and you are willing to wait, without acknowledging that, in that same time, people could also get tired of the silver and it could fall back to earth.
You are taking the win and calling it a day on the silver, while insisting on indefinite extra time for the gold. Heads you win, tails it's too soon to tell. I get it now.
I thought I had been more than clear when repeatedly saying they will be gone by the end of the year. That is not an indefinite time. Far from it. I have also made the argument many times that a 6 month sell-through would be a huge success. I have not wavered on this. To repeat my previous post, I will be proved right or wrong on or before Dec 31, 2026.
2/3 and 3/4, without an acknowledgement that those numbers will be going down, not up, as returns are processed and overwhelm whatever incremental additional sales they manage to book before the action totally stops. Because many of them are not "in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products." Many are in boxes on their way back to the Mint, or waiting for shipping labels before beginning their return trip.
Again, no need to argue this point. You'll see for yourself in a few weeks. Just please check back in when the ATS numbers start to pop up, as you surely will if you turn out to be right and ATS suddenly takes a major dip. I'm not going anywhere, and will always admit when I am wrong.
We'll see on Dec 31.
Yes, I get it. The return window is finite. But it hasn't even closed yet. Then, please go back to @coiner's post about the return process.
It will take many more weeks before the returns are processed, once they start actually coming in. You aint seen nothing yet with them. So, yeah, "we'll see on Dec 31," but we really don't need to wait that long.
Because we can already see. What won't "go on forever" is people buying 5/15 per day from the Mint when the eBay sale @mbr33 shared shows where the market actually is for these.
And, yeah, like many other investments the federal government makes, "the machine will collect dust" if they can't use it the way they intended to, because it was bought to produce $20,000 an ounce gold, not $1,500 an ounce silver. They could ramp up the volume, but the production process for things like this might make that impractical. This I honestly do not care about, because I'm not a fan of the product regardless of how many they make, or where they price it.
Comments
People talk. When The Coin Vault or RCTV, or HSN, sells something like this below original Mint issue price, meaning they were able to get enough quantity to put them on TV, and make money on them, anyone in the business will be able to put 2+2 together. We'll all "know the details."
The whole reason they are not selling now is not because people are shunning over priced Liberty Bells. The silver medals are proving that. It's because there is no dealer bid. Because there is no resale market after having to buy these at $10-20K each, even with no secondary market flip.
As @jmlanzaf said, there would be lot of long term damage to the Mint if they burn the folks who actually bought by pushing the rest out the back door in a "heavily discounted transaction we will never know the details of," just to salvage a few bucks. It's only a few thousand coins. The Mint can and will take the financial hit by melting these in order to maintain pricing power going forward.
As you noted above, reasonable retail for these is likely around half of what they are asking. Which means "heavily discounted" out the back door would involve a significant discount to that. The Mint would still make money versus melt, but not enough to compensate for the long term damage they would do to their pricing power for very limited edition items in the future.
They're not going to take any drastic measures to move bells. They leave them on the site.
It's not a fiscal disaster, you are talking about miniscule numbers for the Mint.
They tested the waters, it didn't work out for the many reasons posted.
They are nice tree ornaments for the 1%ers.
Mostly agree, with one exception. Given that it's a failed experiment, they are unlikely to leave them sitting indefinitely, hanging over the market.
Simply no reason to do that to the people who bought them. Maybe they'll have some legs if the final mintage comes in at less than 1,000, which might then encourage people to take a shot if the Mint wants to try something like this in the future. Especially when they are no longer relevant after the 250th is long past.
Sure, anything can happen with the Mint, but it will be surprising to see 1,000+ of those one ounce gold Liberty Bells sitting unloved and unsold on the website this time next year when they can just take the hit and convert them back into cash money.
The "financial hit" is miniscule. They bought a 1oz gold planchet and they will be melting 1oz of gold. No loss there. The only loss is the cost of packaging and incremental production costs.
The mint has not damaged any "pricing power." Every product is a new game of how desirable it is, how many they are going to make, and how much are they going to charge. IF the bells turn out to be a failure (still to be determined) the mint will have learned what the market size is for gold at 5x spot. If they fail to sell ay more units they know the market size is around 1500 units, not 2076. If they blow out the 500-700 units in a backdoor deal, it will not affect their success rate for a theoretical future similar offering of 1500 units assuming similar desirability and that they haven't over saturated the market with their offerings already.
But the mint is perfectly happy to have these site on the shelf for 7 or 8 years. The mint will also answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount.
Sigh... no, they won't. The Mint does not negotiate that way. They have fixed discounts to bulk buyers. If they start negotiating with a single buyer, they will have a revolt by all the other bulk buyers.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I watched a video with a big dealer in California and he specifically discussed how he called the mint and bought out a bunch of remaining stale inventory. I don't remember the wording or the specifics but I believe he negotiated a special deal which he obviously didn't get into details on. That's what I base that comment on.
If he's not a bulk buyer, they might have extended the bulk discount. I would like some evidence of special terms being extended to a single large dealer before I'm willing to believe it.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I love this place for the numismatic experience that I can learn from...
I hate this place because of all the "Parents" with their expert opinions and that ABSOLUTELY know everything about the inner workings of the Mint and their business practices. That Community College education is paying life dividends!
Progressive should definitely come by this place for some ideas on future commercials!
BST references available on request
The "parents" often have decades of experience with the Mint including direct or indirect access through bulk buyer programs.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
You're conflating my points. True, right now, the Mint has not lost pricing power. It will just be indefinitely sitting on a bunch of very expensive inventory it cannot move.
IF however, they listen to you and "answer the phone if/when a dealer calls up to make a bulk purchase offer at a discount," THAT will the point at which they lose pricing power for any future over priced under minted trinket they choose to offer.
Which is why it's not going to happen. Just like these are not going to be selling out by the end of the year, a few every day. Whether or not they sit unsold for 7 or 8 years is entirely up to the Mint. I honestly have no way to know what they are going to do one way or the other. I'm just saying it will make sense at some point for them to lick their wounds, eat the packaging, pay the smelters, and get on with their lives, rather than continuing to sit on a bunch of gold they are never going to sell.
Their loss would not measured by the 5x spot they are never going to get. But it's not exactly "minuscule" either.
It cost a lot more than nothing to buy the special press to make these monstrosities. Money they will never recapture by amortizing the cost over 2026 items sold for $750 each while around half of the remaining 4052, meant to be sold for $10-20K, are never sold. Special planchets also likely cost a significant premium. Then they have to pay to smelt. Again not nothing.
Which is why, in the past, they pushed unsold product out the back door rather than spend more money to reduce coins they spent money to make and package back into bullion. Different story here, given the nature of the product, the amount of discount they would have to provide, what that would do the value of the product already sold, etc., etc., etc.
Everything doesn't have to be a argument with this. You can, at any time, just see it as it is, rather than as you want it to be.
I can admit that I was wrong about the silver, but I was 1,000,000% correct about the gold. Right down to how many are going to ultimately be unsold. Why can't you concede that?
People were only buying to flip. Very few to actually own.
The flip manifested for the silver, but not for the gold. This is why they are all coming back.
Not due to a sudden change of heart once in hand. Most people cannot afford to tie up $10-20K in a single modern NCLT item, and never intended to, no matter how low the mintage. They were misled into believing these would be a great flip. And a great way to rack up credit card points. That's the only reason they slammed the website.
Not sure what you aren't seeing here that is very clear to me. It is not speculation at this point. It's empirically observable data.
BST references available on request
I don't think it's going to happen but I wouldn't write it off as an impossibility either.
The press is now capital equipment that can and will be used for many more products to come, and it was used for the ~2800 gold units sold and 2026 silver units sold. To date, they've sold 80% of the units produced with this equipment. Any cost allocated to this product for the equipment is essentially recovered.
I admit the other costs are not nothing but hey are also not significant. Mints like Agoro regularly produce stuff with non-round planchets and they are able to do it at fairly reasonable prices. And on a side note - with custom capsules that fit the coins perfectly.
Same with you. You could also admit that you are just speculating and may be wrong rather than asserting guesses as facts.
You are not correct (yet) because because you cannot predict the future. In a few months we'll know. Until then, admit you that this is what you expect to happen and not a certainty.
3/4 of the 1/2oz are gone. Almost 2/3 of the 1oz are gone. Aside from ~50 gold listings on ebay, they are in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products.
This was not a product for "most people." That's what you don't get. The people who bought these to keep can afford them.
I'm looking at the same data. Sales continue. The returns will dry up as the return window closes. Your criteria is that it has to sell out in one day to be successful. Mine is that a sell out by the end of the year is success. Different opinions, but you pretend that you know the future when you are repeatedly shown that you do not. My prediction will be proven or disproven on Dec 31.
At the risk of just going around and around, you are basing your thoughts on looking at ATS at the beginning of a day, subtracting what comes out during the day, and then extrapolating to an eventual sell out. You are ignoring the elephant in the room - that there are no dealer bids, that the few people actually interested in keeping them are colossally disappointed with the quality, the reported published advice from the buyers clubs for their members to return them, and, most importantly, @coiner's first hand account of the time consuming, detailed, unique return process for these specific coins.
Added together, we know, not speculating, but know, that several hundred of both coins will be returned to ATS in the next few weeks that are not yet accounted for. You are starting from 3/4 and 2/3 of maximum mintage and counting down. I, and most others, are starting from there and counting up based on guaranteed returns that have not yet been processed.
So, the Mint will not be spreading the cost of its fancy new press over $62 million in gross sales, but, rather, a small fraction of that. A lot less than half when the dust settles.
Then, given what a disappointment these are, and how they are really the specialty of small specialty mints like PAMP, the question remains what the Mint is going to do with that fancy new press going forward? Try to make things in quantity, or still in small batches, but at far lower price points?
TBD, but, given what a rip off I thought $750 half ounce silver medals were, if that's the sweet spot, will interest remain if they keep pumping out low mintage low value medals at $750?
By the way, I absolutely DO get that this was never meant to be a product for the masses. And yet, it was the masses that accounted for the quick sell out, expecting a flip to the elite. A flip that did not manifest, because the elite apparently have very little interest in $10-20K gold coins shaped like bells that sell for 5x intrinsic value with a mintage in the low thousands rather than low hundreds.
As I correctly predicted. I could not have been more wrong about demand for $750 half ounce silver medals in the same shape. Live and learn.
But I am admitting that mistake. You are not, because forever is a long time, and you are willing to wait, without acknowledging that, in that same time, people could also get tired of the silver and it could fall back to earth.
You are taking the win and calling it a day on the silver, while insisting on indefinite extra time for the gold. Heads you win, tails it's too soon to tell. I get it now.
2/3 and 3/4, without an acknowledgement that those numbers will be going down, not up, as returns are processed and overwhelm whatever incremental additional sales they manage to book before the action totally stops. Because many of them are not "in the hands of people who want them and potentially a few dealers who always resell mint products." Many are in boxes on their way back to the Mint, or waiting for shipping labels before beginning their return trip.
Again, no need to argue this point. You'll see for yourself in a few weeks. Just please check back in when the ATS numbers start to pop up, as you surely will if you turn out to be right and ATS suddenly takes a major dip. I'm not going anywhere, and will always admit when I am wrong.
Theyve done it already.
It amazes me that the same two folks ALWAYS think they have all the answers.
They are just speculating - but for some of us it isnt our first rodeo. Weve seen the writing on the wall.
If I had to pick a side on the Gold Bells - NJCoin has a stronger argument.
And you are just speculating - with less historical basis.
No, they haven't. They did a sealed bid sale and publicly announced that they had done so, including the results. (See the previously posted Coin World article.)
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
This is an “ouch” for the seller.
Yeah. I wonder why it wasn't just returned to the Mint. Which causes me to call its veracity into question, same as with all of the pre-sales.
Just not sure what the seller gets out of taking a $4,000 hit on something that could be returned for a full refund. Even crazier if the seller cannot return it because they bought on a pre-sale and are not bailing out of fear over where it's going. Just makes no sense, so I'm not sure it's real.
What "disinformation"?
While it does make more sense to return it, it was put up as an auction-style listing….and that’s the best it could do. $4000 less than Mint price.
I feel it’s a legit auction, but I would bet it doesn’t end with the buyer receiving the coin. Smarter to return it to the Mint if possible and take the negative feedback hit. If it does end up being completed with the buyer getting a damned good (yet not good enough) discount, then the seller and thousands more like him/her won’t participate in this type of mint release ever again.
It is among the many things you said would or could happen with this release and you will have been proven correct as far as the golds go.
I agree , why take a $4000 bath ! Makes no sense
What you don't get is that the return window is finite. There's maybe a couple more days for the straggling orders to notify the mint and return them. Assuming they are processed in a reasonable time, inventory adds from returns will stop in a week or two. The sales - 5-15/day - will continue until they are sold out.
See above. The returns can't go on forever. The window is closing.
I'm sure we'll be seeing lots of interesting things. What, do you think they are just going to let the machine collect dust?
Yes, the masses convoluted the sales process. The coins will eventually end up where they were always going to go.
I thought I had been more than clear when repeatedly saying they will be gone by the end of the year. That is not an indefinite time. Far from it. I have also made the argument many times that a 6 month sell-through would be a huge success. I have not wavered on this. To repeat my previous post, I will be proved right or wrong on or before Dec 31, 2026.
We'll see on Dec 31.
OUCHAMUNDO
.
If I were the seller, I would ship it.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
While the window is finite, you are ignoring 3 things:
1. The new labels being sent will delay the return shipping.
2. They don't automatically add returns to the ATS. They inspect them first. There could be weeks before they get added.
3. Like the return window, the 5-15 per day rate won't go on forever either.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Duplicate post
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yes, I get it. The return window is finite. But it hasn't even closed yet. Then, please go back to @coiner's post about the return process.
It will take many more weeks before the returns are processed, once they start actually coming in. You aint seen nothing yet with them. So, yeah, "we'll see on Dec 31," but we really don't need to wait that long.
Because we can already see. What won't "go on forever" is people buying 5/15 per day from the Mint when the eBay sale @mbr33 shared shows where the market actually is for these.
And, yeah, like many other investments the federal government makes, "the machine will collect dust" if they can't use it the way they intended to, because it was bought to produce $20,000 an ounce gold, not $1,500 an ounce silver. They could ramp up the volume, but the production process for things like this might make that impractical. This I honestly do not care about, because I'm not a fan of the product regardless of how many they make, or where they price it.