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would an MLB strike/lockout increase demand for vintage cards?
craig44
Posts: 12,964 ✭✭✭✭✭
i was reading an article about the impending lockout/strike in MLB. It would undoubtably be terrible for modern/current cards. I am wondering if it could increase pricing for vintage cards? will it drive collectors to retired players or will it be bad across the board?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
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I see no scenario in which a protracted lockout will increase any baseball card values except for outliers. The MLB Lockout/Strike of 1994-1995, combined with Jordan, was the prime catalyst for Basketball cards totally ruling the rest of the 90's and early 00's
History tends to repeat itself
BTW don't be short sighted a correction in prices is good. It brings back people who are priced out and ultimately increases long term interest.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
Agree it will sour people towards baseball in every way. I am a Cubs season ticket holder and am 100% confident the All Star Game at Wrigley will not happen next year. I do not think there will be a 2027 season at all. The owners are not even unified on what to propose - any changes will impact the value of either small market or large market clubs.
The players have always been unified against a cap and will remain so.
Even the owners proposal on the draft which affects players not even in the union met with a non starter from the players.
I tend to be on the players side. If salaries were magically cut 50% tickets, jerseys and concessions would cost fans exactly the same. Owners set prices on what people will pay not on what their payroll is. Look at what the Lions did when they had a good season - they raised prices 50% in a single year in a league that has a cap.
Also agree with 1982 on a drop being good. I welcome lower prices. My need list of 50s and 60s HOFers went up 26% using VCP average price for a 7 from last year’s National to this year’s. I would love updating prices one year and see a 50% drop.
^^
Agree with both. It also makes me wonder what will happen with all the new collectors that got into this game during/around COVID who have been spending huge $$'s on ultra moderns. If those start dropping even 10-20% there may be a huge rush out for those people.
I'd probably get back into buying more but especially if the grading situation improved.
I dont collect any modern or modern players at all. I would also prefer lower prices across the boards. i am not a dealer, just a collector who sometimes sells to supplement my hobby.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
i well remember the strike of 94/95. pretty brutal. there is just so much more money involved in the hobby now. the flippers could very easily leave at the first sign of a work stoppage though
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
If they do file under Good Riddence to Bad Rubbish.
BTW I too feel a season will be lost.
But heres the thing , the owners are not even united, the players are.
Grab Basketball and too lesser extent Football cards now cause if the stoppage is prolonged those may jump like they did in the 90s.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
I don't see any impact on vintage with a strike or stoppage. Maybe the modern stuff, but not vintage.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
i was feeling the same way, then i was reading that the vast majority of players would sign up for a salary floor, as there are many many more players making the minimum or near it than those upper tiered players who are on 10 year contracts making 300 Million. a floor would certainly come attached with a cap.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I think there is no way they avoid a lockout in 2027. The owners have given out some massive contracts, and they know they need to reverse this trend since they cannot control their own spending. The players will not go for it, and it’s just a giant game of chicken to see who blinks first. The owners are all billionaires many of whom this is not their primary source of income. The players financially won’t be able to to miss paychecks for 6 to 12 months without feeling some serious financial strain.
My prediction is that vintage cards will fill the void, and you’ll see both the NFL and NBA cards increase in price and popularity. For many sports cards and TCG are more about prospecting a gambling rather than collecting, and as long as they have an outlet to do so they will shift their efforts to cards other than baseball.
In June of '94, I was part of a partnership which opened a card and memorabilia store in what back then was a very busy shopping center with a mall, new restaurants, grocery store, etc. Shortly after the Grand Opening (LOL), baseball went away and for awhile it seemed that the sentiment was pretty much indifferent about it. The NHL lockout also happened later that year. So people gravitated to the newer football and basketball stuff, where the interest stayed constant. What came out of that period of time was quite a lot of people looking to dump collections either over frustration with the economics of cards or just needing cash. It was a fine time to be a buyer.
A lock out and strike will not be a good look for MLB. And in the current environment, such a development may have a lasting negative impact.
There may not be a better time to look at the history of the MLB to appreciate the game and players that shaped America’s favorite pastime. And perhaps that interest will further extend to exceptional players with noteworthy careers that fell short of induction to Cooperstown. I was in a card shop the other day… I found Bill Nicholson and Del Ennis 1950 Bowman cards- not in great condition… not worthy of grading… not expensive… but what a great time capsule for MLB. This is what makes collecting fun. So perhaps it is possible there will be a return to the past to explore what has been missed.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I'm laughing at this lockout and hope neither side can reach an agreement and the whole league gets blown up
Screw the owners and the overpaid crybaby's
Vintage will not be affected imo
Those with Big money in ultra modern will feel pain they cannot even imagine. I expect the hurt to grow exponentially week by week
Vintage will nor be affected initially, but if an entire season is lost expect a correction.
Dont invest in 2027 Rookie cards folks as highly plausible there will be no season.
Expect the TCG boom to sublimate if there is no season.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)
I think that even the most popular modern baseball player by far, Ohtani, will see decreases if/when the work stoppage happens. I imagine he will win yet another MVP after the season, and his cards are white hot right now, but flipper bois will be onto the next hottest thing once there is no baseball to be played.
there will be lots of bag holding, at least for awhile in the modern hobby.
I really think that vintage could not just hold solid, but continue to increase during a work stoppage. no data to back it up, just a gut feeling.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Yeah, it's likely that if/when modern tanks, there might be a pivot to vintage, so it's entirely possible vintage sees a little bit of an uptick.
Agreed. Vintage baseball and modern baseball are almost two different sports as it is.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
If they stop baseball, they won't stop forever. Ohtani cards and all the other shiny modern stuff will still be attractive to the same people who love it now.
If MLB does have a lockout Ohtani’s cards will actually be one of the cards that will potentially go up due to his contract.
Will do the opposite of grading cost whatever that is.
I want to clutch my pearls and be indignant with my response but deep down inside....I agree with you. The game has changed so much from the game I loved as a kid and the game I worked in throughout the 80's. The money is laughable and us as fans are asked to pay the freight with prices nearly no one can afford.
Blow it up and start from scratch.
I think it will get real when games are canceled and the owners are going to get better than the players by a bit. The owners need to be held accountable to the product. It’s not dollars as much as it’s how they are spent. Example Milwaukee Brewers. Good product. Managed cost. But there are examples which are bad for the game. That said it’s not sustainable for the top 5% of players to be paid so much while the bottom isnt being taken care of and that extends down into the minor leagues. The real argument is about how that is funded. So what I bet we see is a new luxury structure with still no hard cap. More money at the bottom end and an end to deferrals. I think you will still have a problem with teams who underperform like the Mets and put a bad product on the field at any cost.
A lockout is going to happen as soon as the season is over. It's a negotiating tactic to gain leverage. I don't think the lockout in itself will affect values, it's already the off-season anyways when values level off and don't really go up. What will hurt prices is if there are games missed. That's when people need to start getting worried. Baseball has been gaining popularity the last number of years and both sides will be idiots if they start missing games. I'm expecting it to come down to the 23rd hour of negotiations on the latest possible date where they can still squeeze in a full 162 game season.
On a side note, I do find it interesting that both sides have taken to negotiating through the public. Seems like they're both trying to swing the public perception/sympathy their way. While I do like the transparency, I don't remember that happening like this in past negotiations.
Popularity was on rise in 94 as well then after lockout/strike it took Roids to begin getting it back
I feel this time it will be nastier and a season or more will be lost.
On a related note if there is a cap talking baseball from that point on will be a mostly fiscal discussion like it is with other sports.
Room or no room under cap will be first and foremost talking points in nearly every baseball discussion from that point on. I for one don't want that ponderous tripe but apparently many fans would rather talk about the financial machinations in every day discussion rather than the sport itself.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me (2025)