Silver is another story, because there is a flip. TBD how many come back due to Mint cancellations, but they will go fast as long as there is a flip.
Silver was always going to be the story here when you have three 2000 mintage items and one is on the low end of the price scale.
Percentage wise the Silver will do well. I dont think it will be a long term $3000 item, but, probably an honest $1500-$1700 dollar item longer term.
Why? Because people want an example of the Liberty Bell for the 250th - and they cant afford the gold.
It would be interesting to know how many accounts that purchased these have no sales history. If it is 500 to 1000 then that would mean the mint has a big problem on their hands.
Regardless, these were a massive win for the mint.
I wasted a few minutes trying for the silver. Checked in waiting room,noticed I was in after 20 min ,shock and surprise sold out.Then went about my day. Worth a shot .
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
Because they were not available for pre-sale from the Mint. Or to the "big guns" at all.
To the extent they are getting involved with them at all, they are they ones who had the army of buyers slam the website, and who are now bidding for them on places like Pure.
The golds are dead. They will be available tomorrow, and probably every day thereafter.
Because people were buying them to flip, not keep. And it turns out that there is no flip.
Silver is another story, because there is a flip. TBD how many come back due to Mint cancellations, but they will go fast as long as there is a flip.
I dont think so.
I can't really opine as to a few odd eBay sales. Lots of folks on eBay have no idea which end is up.
I'm going by reports of multiple reputable bidders pulling their bids, and the screen shot of the offer on Pure, below issue price, with no takers. You'll see tomorrow when they reappear on the Mint website and don't sell out.
No need to debate tonight. But it really appears as though there is no bid for the gold, because the dealers who would be reselling them have determined that they will be too expensive for people to be interested.
Again, as I have been saying all along, the only people interested in them have been those looking for a greater fool. Early on this afternoon, it seems as though dealers decided the gold would be too expensive for the usual group of greater fools, so they pulled their bids, sticking the people who bought from the Mint hoping to flip to them.
Those will now be going back to the Mint. The orders that were cancelled will appear at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow. The balance will show up after they have been delivered and then returned. Not a guess. People have been posting about this all day.
A few eBay sales, which, as I also keep saying, might or might not even be arm's length transactions, don't change reality on the ground. If eBay sales at $24K were actually achievable, no dealer who knows what they are doing would be offering one on Pure for $19,590. And dealers would not have pulled their bids this afternoon. Not to mention, everyone who loves to flip would be grabbing it for the instant $5K profit. People are killing themselves for a fraction of that.
As soon as I saw the buyers club offers I knew it would be nuts.
Th club that I follow offered a small premium on the 0.5 gold, but only if the buyer got a silver also. $250 premium on the silver. Wonder how many pulled that off and got both.
I didn't think the gold would sell out instantly. If they had not tied it to the silver, I might have tried to do that deal just to get the credit card points, which is really, I think what drives most of this. At that level it's not dumb. I can see how these companies make out. They're paying a very small premium to the buyers. The buyers get the big credit card rewards and the credit card companies end up paying for this.
It really ticks me off where there's an issue that I really want for my own collection. But, just don't like stand this issue & I would not have minded being a part of scoring one or both of the golds if I could have gotten all those credit card points. I didn't see any offers for the 1 oz.
The buyers get the big credit card rewards and the credit card companies end up paying for this.
It really ticks me off where there's an issue that I really want for my own collection. But, just don't like stand this issue & I would not have minded being a part of scoring one or both of the golds if I could have gotten all those credit card points. I didn't see any offers for the 1 oz.
I’m not following the logic that the credit card companies end up paying for this. What is “this” anyways? The original buyer gets a small bonus for using the card, and the credit card company makes up for that with the credit card fee they charge the mint.
@Coinlearner said:
I wasted a few minutes trying for the silver. Checked in waiting room,noticed I was in after 20 min ,shock and surprise sold out.Then went about my day. Worth a shot .
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
I expect quite a few 70's. With their first time through this production process with new equipment they probably had an extra eye on quality. I would expect they had quite a pile of flawed coins to recycle when they were done perfecting the campaniform.
Silver is another story, because there is a flip. TBD how many come back due to Mint cancellations, but they will go fast as long as there is a flip.
Silver was always going to be the story here when you have three 2000 mintage items and one is on the low end of the price scale.
Percentage wise the Silver will do well. I dont think it will be a long term $3000 item, but, probably an honest $1500-$1700 dollar item longer term.
Why? Because people want an example of the Liberty Bell for the 250th - and they cant afford the gold.
I don't know. I could make the argument that if a silver bell is worth $3k, paying $12k is not an unreasonable premium for the gold version.
The golds are dead. They will be available tomorrow, and probably every day thereafter.
Because people were buying them to flip, not keep. And it turns out that there is no flip.
Silver is another story, because there is a flip. TBD how many come back due to Mint cancellations, but they will go fast as long as there is a flip.
I dont think so.
I can't really opine as to a few odd eBay sales. Lots of folks on eBay have no idea which end is up.
Why? That hasn't stopped you before.
No need to debate tonight. But it really appears as though there is no bid for the gold, because the dealers who would be reselling them have determined that they will be too expensive for people to be interested.
The Pure market is dead but ebay sales continue to trickle out and people aren't buying the cheapest ones either. Buyers are feeling pretty comfortable at $11-$12k for the 1/2 oz. I think Pure is still a well kept secret.
Again, as I have been saying all along, the only people interested in them have been those looking for a greater fool. Early on this afternoon, it seems as though dealers deciding the gold would be too expensive for the usual group of greater fools, so they pulled their bids, sticking the people who bought from the Mint hoping to flip to them.
Those will now be going back to the Mint. The orders that were cancelled will appear at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow. The balance will show up after they have been delivered and then returned. Not a guess. People have been posting about this all day.
I think you'll be surprised and the "big boys" will gobble them up once HHL is gone. Put these in a 70 slab and a 2k profit is easy, IMO. There are also a lot of dealers who will hoard this for the long game.
A few eBay sales, which, as I also keep saying, might or might not even be arm's length transactions, don't change reality on the ground. If eBay sales at $24K were actually achievable, no dealer who knows what they are doing would be offering one on Pure for $19,590. And dealers would not have pulled their bids this afternoon. Not to mention, everyone who loves to flip would be grabbing it for the instant $5K profit. People are killing themselves for a fraction of that.
@Raufus said:
As soon as I saw the buyers club offers I knew it would be nuts.
Th club that I follow offered a small premium on the 0.5 gold, but only if the buyer got a silver also. $250 premium on the silver. Wonder how many pulled that off and got both.
I didn't think the gold would sell out instantly. If they had not tied it to the silver, I might have tried to do that deal just to get the credit card points, which is really, I think what drives most of this. At that level it's not dumb. I can see how these companies make out. They're paying a very small premium to the buyers. The buyers get the big credit card rewards and the credit card companies end up paying for this.
It really ticks me off where there's an issue that I really want for my own collection. But, just don't like stand this issue & I would not have minded being a part of scoring one or both of the golds if I could have gotten all those credit card points. I didn't see any offers for the 1 oz.
You are definitely right as far as the buyers club members go. They have no idea what they are doing, are just following marching orders, and are happy for whatever they get, plus the credit card points. Because it's the buyers club operators themselves who are flipping to the Big Boys, and they need to take their cut. Don't cry for the credit card companies. They get swipe fees from the Mint that covers the cost of the points. And, of course, the Mint is making out like a bandit and is happy to pay the swipe fees.
With something like this, I don't even care. I had no interest when it was first announced. Glad I didn't chase it.
People here suffering from FOMO and seeing an opportunity to grab gold either already canceled, or will. Because these have no value at these prices.
People seem to be attracted to the silver. I honestly don't understand why, but dealer bids confirm it. So I was wrong about that. I didn't think there would be enough to attract the telemarketers, but I think I was wrong, because I'm pretty sure they are the ones behind the strong dealer bids.
We'll see in a few weeks, but I won't be shocked to see them in slabs on TV for ~$5K. The lack of bids for the gold tells me that they would end up being too expensive to be sold to the TV crowd, so they sit, as I thought they all would.
But, trust me, anyone still suffering from FOMO will able to get as many golds as they want from the Mint at issue price in the next few weeks. And, they won't want them after they see no one else does. That Pure offer at $10 below issue price, on a sell out a few hours after release, with no dealer bites, guarantees it.
Without regard to intrinsic value, $750 for anything with a mintage of 2026 appears to have resonated with the Big Boys, who are willing to pay up to get them. Not so much at $10K and $20K with the same mintage, in spite of geometrically higher intrinsic value, which is apparently not part of the equation here. It's all just price and mintage. Not even coin vs. medal.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
I was going to get one of the silver's and flip to Pinehurst, they werent buying the gold apparently. Anyway, logged on about 1/4 till, but sat in wait room for like 23 min, at which time about 2 min in, a sign came up saying silver was sold out,. Stayed in anyway, just on the off chance some came back up, nada. Could have bought the 1 oz gold as it was still available then, but I had no outlet for it, and would have had to add another cc with a high enough limit. so passed.
two customers of mine, similar to me, friend of one of the customers had the silver in the cart, but sold out before he could get the cc processed, so they yanked it out of cart. That happen to me back on the v75 gold day
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
I expect quite a few 70's. With their first time through this production process with new equipment they probably had an extra eye on quality. I would expect they had quite a pile of flawed coins to recycle when they were done perfecting the campaniform.
Silver is another story, because there is a flip. TBD how many come back due to Mint cancellations, but they will go fast as long as there is a flip.
Silver was always going to be the story here when you have three 2000 mintage items and one is on the low end of the price scale.
Percentage wise the Silver will do well. I dont think it will be a long term $3000 item, but, probably an honest $1500-$1700 dollar item longer term.
Why? Because people want an example of the Liberty Bell for the 250th - and they cant afford the gold.
I don't know. I could make the argument that if a silver bell is worth $3k, paying $12k is not an unreasonable premium for the gold version.
The golds are dead. They will be available tomorrow, and probably every day thereafter.
Because people were buying them to flip, not keep. And it turns out that there is no flip.
Silver is another story, because there is a flip. TBD how many come back due to Mint cancellations, but they will go fast as long as there is a flip.
I dont think so.
I can't really opine as to a few odd eBay sales. Lots of folks on eBay have no idea which end is up.
Why? That hasn't stopped you before.
No need to debate tonight. But it really appears as though there is no bid for the gold, because the dealers who would be reselling them have determined that they will be too expensive for people to be interested.
The Pure market is dead but ebay sales continue to trickle out and people aren't buying the cheapest ones either. Buyers are feeling pretty comfortable at $11-$12k for the 1/2 oz. I think Pure is still a well kept secret.
Again, as I have been saying all along, the only people interested in them have been those looking for a greater fool. Early on this afternoon, it seems as though dealers deciding the gold would be too expensive for the usual group of greater fools, so they pulled their bids, sticking the people who bought from the Mint hoping to flip to them.
Those will now be going back to the Mint. The orders that were cancelled will appear at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow. The balance will show up after they have been delivered and then returned. Not a guess. People have been posting about this all day.
I think you'll be surprised and the "big boys" will gobble them up once HHL is gone. Put these in a 70 slab and a 2k profit is easy, IMO. There are also a lot of dealers who will hoard this for the long game.
A few eBay sales, which, as I also keep saying, might or might not even be arm's length transactions, don't change reality on the ground. If eBay sales at $24K were actually achievable, no dealer who knows what they are doing would be offering one on Pure for $19,590. And dealers would not have pulled their bids this afternoon. Not to mention, everyone who loves to flip would be grabbing it for the instant $5K profit. People are killing themselves for a fraction of that.
ebay and Pure markets are clearly different.
Or the process is incapable of producing large numbers of 70s. If you are preselling 70s, you need to have some sense of yield or you'll get killed in the market.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I can't really opine as to a few odd eBay sales. Lots of folks on eBay have no idea which end is up.
>
Those will now be going back to the Mint. The orders that were cancelled will appear at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow. The balance will show up after they have been delivered and then returned. Not a guess. People have been posting about this all day.
A few eBay sales, which, as I also keep saying, might or might not even be arm's length transactions, don't change reality on the ground. If eBay sales at $24K were actually achievable, no dealer who knows what they are doing would be offering one on Pure for $19,590. And dealers would not have pulled their bids this afternoon. Not to mention, everyone who loves to flip would be grabbing it for the instant $5K profit. People are killing themselves for a fraction of that.
Your issue is relying on PURE. Bad Move. Not a reliable source for taking the pulse of the market.
You do have at least half a dozen sales for 2-3k over for the gold one oz - and also some for the gold half oz. You must give this some time - you dont get immediate gratification.
Most people - as you have seen post to this site as well - do not want to hang up their credit or do not have enough credit to go for the 20k.
24,000 is achieveable - and has been validated by ebay sales.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. There could be very few 70s.
TBD. Either way, the reason no one is out with them yet is because no one has had an opportunity to get their hands on them yet. I happen to think, with this mintage at these prices, they will almost all be 70s.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I can't really opine as to a few odd eBay sales. Lots of folks on eBay have no idea which end is up.
>
Those will now be going back to the Mint. The orders that were cancelled will appear at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow. The balance will show up after they have been delivered and then returned. Not a guess. People have been posting about this all day.
A few eBay sales, which, as I also keep saying, might or might not even be arm's length transactions, don't change reality on the ground. If eBay sales at $24K were actually achievable, no dealer who knows what they are doing would be offering one on Pure for $19,590. And dealers would not have pulled their bids this afternoon. Not to mention, everyone who loves to flip would be grabbing it for the instant $5K profit. People are killing themselves for a fraction of that.
Your issue is relying on PURE. Bad Move. Not a reliable source for taking the pulse of the market.
You do have at least half a dozen sales for 2-3k over for the gold one oz - and also some for the gold half oz. You must give this some time - you dont get immediate gratification.
Most people - as you have seen post to this site as well - do not want to hang up their credit or do not have enough credit to go for the 20k.
24,000 is achieveable - and has been validated by ebay sales.
I'm not relying on any one source. I'm relying on widespread reports of dealer bids being pulled, people here reporting canceling gold orders, AND the Pure offer, with no takers. That's both a would be seller just wanting to get out, and an entire community of buyers having no interest at the issue price.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. There could be very few 70s.
TBD. Either way, the reason no one is out with them yet is because no one has had an opportunity to get their hands on them yet. I happen to think, with this mintage at these prices, they will almost all be 70s.
Depends on the process, which has never been used before. Retailers usually presell 70s even without advance release coins because the supply is predictable. In this case, the supply is limited and the process is new. I think that combination is why no one has risked listing them yet. If Pinehurst lists them tomorrow, then it was just a total supply fear.
I have no idea what this new process will yield.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
I'd be surprised with that much focus on a new product and process and knowing they would charge high premiums that they would accept anything less than perfection. I agree, I don't know how these dealers do it with trying to predict yields but seems like a risk move.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
Yes, I understand. Anything is possible.
And here, no one actually knows anything, because this has never been done before, and no one has graded anything yet. I'm just saying that, with this low mintage and these astronomical prices, I'll be shocked if these grade like Philly ASEs.
Legit retailers have no pre-sales not only because they have no idea how they will grade, but also because, until they actually receive them, they have no idea what they will even have to sell. With something like this, it would be crazy to pre-sell without knowing what you have, and what you'll have to pay for what you get. Which is why all the eBay pre-sales were BS. None of them will actually be fulfilled, given where they market went at 12:05 this afternoon.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
I'd be surprised with that much focus on a new product and process and knowing they would charge high premiums that they would accept anything less than perfection. I agree, I don't know how these dealers do it with trying to predict yields but seems like a risk move.
And yet the even shorter runs of privy FH and gold omega, made with a well-known process, and sold for higher prices were NOT all 70s.
I see no reason to assume this process is perfect. I also don't know that it isn't.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
Yes, I understand. Anything is possible.
And here, no one actually knows anything, because this has never been done before, and no one has graded anything yet. I'm just saying that, with this low mintage and these astronomical prices, I'll be shocked if these grade like Philly ASEs.
Legit retailers have no pre-sales not only because they have no idea how they will grade, but also because, until they actually receive them, they have no idea what they will even have to sell. With something like this, it would be crazy to pre-sell without knowing what you have, and what you'll have to pay for what you get. Which is why all the eBay pre-sales were BS. None of them will actually be fulfilled, given where they market went at 12:05 this afternoon.
Then we agree. You could just say that. Lol
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jdimmick said:
I was going to get one of the silver's and flip to Pinehurst, they werent buying the gold apparently. Anyway, logged on about 1/4 till, but sat in wait room for like 23 min, at which time about 2 min in, a sign came up saying silver was sold out,. Stayed in anyway, just on the off chance some came back up, nada. Could have bought the 1 oz gold as it was still available then, but I had no outlet for it, and would have had to add another cc with a high enough limit. so passed.
two customers of mine, similar to me, friend of one of the customers had the silver in the cart, but sold out before he could get the cc processed, so they yanked it out of cart. That happen to me back on the v75 gold day
yes, just like the V75 is what it reminded my of as well
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The buyers get the big credit card rewards and the credit card companies end up paying for this.
It really ticks me off where there's an issue that I really want for my own collection. But, just don't like stand this issue & I would not have minded being a part of scoring one or both of the golds if I could have gotten all those credit card points. I didn't see any offers for the 1 oz.
I’m not following the logic that the credit card companies end up paying for this. What is “this” anyways? The original buyer gets a small bonus for using the card, and the credit card company makes up for that with the credit card fee they charge the mint.
The logic is that the buyers clubs can get people to buy what they believe will be very profitable flips w minimal cost because the primary driver is the credit card rewards. I'm not saying its a net cost to the cc issuer, just that the main payout to the buyer is the cc via rewards.
As much as it irritates the heck out of me when there's a coin I really want, it's a very smart business model.
Apparently, the IRS treats U.S. Gold Eagles as taxable collectibles, and any profit from their sale is subject to capital gains tax, regardless of the sale amount over the original base price. So, with ebay sales, I can only imagine that the Gold Bells' sales will be reported to the IRS and the seller pays Fed and corresponding state tax at the end of the year. Plus ebay fees and less possible credit card rewards (2% to 3% for example- assuming cards do not report rewards as well.) .
So, I wonder whether the net profit of the ebay sale examples still makes decent scratch?
@NJCoin said:
Yeah. We'll see. I'm not flying blind now, but you seem to be blinded by your need to beat me into submission.
You were the one who tried to beat everyone into submission with your faking it about the coin market. Maybe you should have looked up eEbay pre-sales and other things like the rest of us did.
I did not try to order any of these. I was out camping and away from the computer anyway. I clicked on the Mint's email link about 10 minutes prior to release just to see what was going on.
I found the waiting room interesting. It was different than previous early log-ins. Before noon it said "The products will release in 6 minutes..." This was a waiting room of types, but it was not a count down waiting room like previous releases. It was just informing of when it was going to be released.
After noon hit, the waiting room went to normal format "Your estimated wait time is 28 minutes".
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
Yes, I understand. Anything is possible.
And here, no one actually knows anything, because this has never been done before, and no one has graded anything yet. I'm just saying that, with this low mintage and these astronomical prices, I'll be shocked if these grade like Philly ASEs.
Legit retailers have no pre-sales not only because they have no idea how they will grade, but also because, until they actually receive them, they have no idea what they will even have to sell. With something like this, it would be crazy to pre-sell without knowing what you have, and what you'll have to pay for what you get. Which is why all the eBay pre-sales were BS. None of them will actually be fulfilled, given where they market went at 12:05 this afternoon.
Then we agree. You could just say that. Lol
Okay. We agree. Partially. Because, if you'll note, I also said that legit retailers aren't pre-selling because they don't even know how many they'll have, and at what prices, in addition to having no visibility into yield.
@Batman23 said:
I did not try to order any of these. I was out camping and away from the computer anyway. I clicked on the Mint's email link about 10 minutes prior to release just to see what was going on.
I found the waiting room interesting. It was different than previous early log-ins. Before noon it said "The products will release in 6 minutes..." This was a waiting room of types, but it was not a count down waiting room like previous releases. It was just informing of when it was going to be released.
After noon hit, the waiting room went to normal format "Your estimated wait time is 28 minutes".
@Batman23 said:
I did not try to order any of these. I was out camping and away from the computer anyway. I clicked on the Mint's email link about 10 minutes prior to release just to see what was going on.
I found the waiting room interesting. It was different than previous early log-ins. Before noon it said "The products will release in 6 minutes..." This was a waiting room of types, but it was not a count down waiting room like previous releases. It was just informing of when it was going to be released.
After noon hit, the waiting room went to normal format "Your estimated wait time is 28 minutes".
Anyone else notice this?
Yes. That is the way it is supposed to work.
Rather than queuing you up in the order you arrive, encouraging people to show up hours in advance, once they implement the waiting room, everyone there before launch has their position randomized at launch.
That's the countdown clock to launch. Once you have your randomized spot at launch, the estimated wait is displayed. Anyone showing up after release goes to the back of the line.
If you ever saw anything else, it wasn't working as intended.
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
Yes, I understand. Anything is possible.
And here, no one actually knows anything, because this has never been done before, and no one has graded anything yet. I'm just saying that, with this low mintage and these astronomical prices, I'll be shocked if these grade like Philly ASEs.
Legit retailers have no pre-sales not only because they have no idea how they will grade, but also because, until they actually receive them, they have no idea what they will even have to sell. With something like this, it would be crazy to pre-sell without knowing what you have, and what you'll have to pay for what you get. Which is why all the eBay pre-sales were BS. None of them will actually be fulfilled, given where they market went at 12:05 this afternoon.
Then we agree. You could just say that. Lol> @NJCoin said:
@Capgun said:
Any ideas as to what the 70's will bring when they appear
no one really has any way to know until they are graded, and then offered for sale.
Not sure why, on this occasion, the big guns aren't out with them already
It's not a normal production. They're could be very few 70s.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
Yes, I understand. Anything is possible.
And here, no one actually knows anything, because this has never been done before, and no one has graded anything yet. I'm just saying that, with this low mintage and these astronomical prices, I'll be shocked if these grade like Philly ASEs.
Legit retailers have no pre-sales not only because they have no idea how they will grade, but also because, until they actually receive them, they have no idea what they will even have to sell. With something like this, it would be crazy to pre-sell without knowing what you have, and what you'll have to pay for what you get. Which is why all the eBay pre-sales were BS. None of them will actually be fulfilled, given where they market went at 12:05 this afternoon.
Then we agree. You could just say that. Lol
Okay. We agree. Partially. Because, if you'll note, I also said that legit retailers aren't pre-selling because they don't even know how many they'll have, and at what prices, in addition to having no visibility into yield.
You might note that I also indicated both uncertainties.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
No one knows what “sales” on eBay are actually real and what aren’t.
Even if you take eBay for face value and assume they are all real, I personally don’t think eBay sales showing $2k profits on either of the golds are indicative of what most people are actually going to sell them for on eBay.
Not to mention eBay takes 10% and there is the age old advice, don’t sell anything on eBay you wouldn’t give away for free. One dubious buyer and your profits for the next year are wiped out when this transaction goes south.
I would not sell a $10k item on eBay when the buyer can screw you so many ways.
@CoinPhysicist said:
Personally I don’t think eBay sales showing $2k profits on either of the golds are indicative of what people are actually going to sell them for on eBay.
Not to mention eBay takes 10% and there is the age old advice, don’t sell anything on eBay you wouldn’t give away for free. One dubious buyer and your profits for the next year are wiped out when this transaction goes south.
I would not sell a $10k item on eBay when the buyer can screw you so many ways.
Sigh...I don't even know where to start correcting this.
My fees on a $10,000 gold coin listed under bullion are $438 (4.38%).
There are ebay seller protections that don't even exist for returns to the Mint. That "age old advice" is nonsense. You could just as easily say you should never buy a coin with money you wouldn't want to burn because of the non-zero risk of total loss.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@CoinPhysicist said:
Personally I don’t think eBay sales showing $2k profits on either of the golds are indicative of what people are actually going to sell them for on eBay.
Not to mention eBay takes 10% and there is the age old advice, don’t sell anything on eBay you wouldn’t give away for free. One dubious buyer and your profits for the next year are wiped out when this transaction goes south.
I would not sell a $10k item on eBay when the buyer can screw you so many ways.
Sigh...I don't even know where to start correcting this.
My fees on a $10,000 gold coin listed under bullion are $438 (4.38%).
There are ebay seller protections that don't even exist for returns to the Mint. That "age old advice" is nonsense. You could just as easily say you should never buy a coin with money you wouldn't want to burn because of the non-zero risk of total loss.
You think you could win a fight on eBay against a buyer who is trying to fleece you for 10 grand?
gold is available this morning, silver gone super fast, had the silver in my cart from yesterday, when I clicked place order it slowed way down and.....no longer available
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Anyone know how many gold are available? Wonder how many people already cancelled.
Edit: 587 half ounces on ATS right now. 768 one ounces. The half ounces look like they are selling 7-10ish per minute and one ounces look like they are selling on the order of 1 per minute. So maybe another half hour to one hour for the half ounces and all day or longer for the one ounces?
Edit 2 (7:43 am): Sales have slowed on both over the past few minutes. They may stay in stock for quite a while. They have each sold 1 in the past 2 minutes.
Edit 3 (7:45 am): Prediction that the half ounce will still be available at 9:00 am Eastern Time and the one ounce will still be available at 8:00 pm Eastern Time. Might be wildly wrong.
Comments
It's not a normal production. There could be very few 70s.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Silver was always going to be the story here when you have three 2000 mintage items and one is on the low end of the price scale.
Percentage wise the Silver will do well. I dont think it will be a long term $3000 item, but, probably an honest $1500-$1700 dollar item longer term.
Why? Because people want an example of the Liberty Bell for the 250th - and they cant afford the gold.
The only issue is - the Silver is a MEDAL.
Medals dont typically do well long term.
It would be interesting to know how many accounts that purchased these have no sales history. If it is 500 to 1000 then that would mean the mint has a big problem on their hands.
Regardless, these were a massive win for the mint.
Actually, I think that's accurate. You will see a large return of gold to inventory. Once that happens, it will not be easy to sell them out.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I wasted a few minutes trying for the silver. Checked in waiting room,noticed I was in after 20 min ,shock and surprise
sold out.Then went about my day. Worth a shot .
Because they were not available for pre-sale from the Mint. Or to the "big guns" at all.
To the extent they are getting involved with them at all, they are they ones who had the army of buyers slam the website, and who are now bidding for them on places like Pure.
I can't really opine as to a few odd eBay sales. Lots of folks on eBay have no idea which end is up.
I'm going by reports of multiple reputable bidders pulling their bids, and the screen shot of the offer on Pure, below issue price, with no takers. You'll see tomorrow when they reappear on the Mint website and don't sell out.
No need to debate tonight. But it really appears as though there is no bid for the gold, because the dealers who would be reselling them have determined that they will be too expensive for people to be interested.
Again, as I have been saying all along, the only people interested in them have been those looking for a greater fool. Early on this afternoon, it seems as though dealers decided the gold would be too expensive for the usual group of greater fools, so they pulled their bids, sticking the people who bought from the Mint hoping to flip to them.
Those will now be going back to the Mint. The orders that were cancelled will appear at 7:30 a.m. tomorrow. The balance will show up after they have been delivered and then returned. Not a guess. People have been posting about this all day.
A few eBay sales, which, as I also keep saying, might or might not even be arm's length transactions, don't change reality on the ground. If eBay sales at $24K were actually achievable, no dealer who knows what they are doing would be offering one on Pure for $19,590. And dealers would not have pulled their bids this afternoon. Not to mention, everyone who loves to flip would be grabbing it for the instant $5K profit. People are killing themselves for a fraction of that.
As soon as I saw the buyers club offers I knew it would be nuts.
Th club that I follow offered a small premium on the 0.5 gold, but only if the buyer got a silver also. $250 premium on the silver. Wonder how many pulled that off and got both.
I didn't think the gold would sell out instantly. If they had not tied it to the silver, I might have tried to do that deal just to get the credit card points, which is really, I think what drives most of this. At that level it's not dumb. I can see how these companies make out. They're paying a very small premium to the buyers. The buyers get the big credit card rewards and the credit card companies end up paying for this.
It really ticks me off where there's an issue that I really want for my own collection. But, just don't like stand this issue & I would not have minded being a part of scoring one or both of the golds if I could have gotten all those credit card points. I didn't see any offers for the 1 oz.
The buyers get the big credit card rewards and the credit card companies end up paying for this.
I’m not following the logic that the credit card companies end up paying for this. What is “this” anyways? The original buyer gets a small bonus for using the card, and the credit card company makes up for that with the credit card fee they charge the mint.
Same here , not loosing any sleep tonight
I expect quite a few 70's. With their first time through this production process with new equipment they probably had an extra eye on quality. I would expect they had quite a pile of flawed coins to recycle when they were done perfecting the campaniform.
I don't know. I could make the argument that if a silver bell is worth $3k, paying $12k is not an unreasonable premium for the gold version.
Why? That hasn't stopped you before.
The Pure market is dead but ebay sales continue to trickle out and people aren't buying the cheapest ones either. Buyers are feeling pretty comfortable at $11-$12k for the 1/2 oz. I think Pure is still a well kept secret.
I think you'll be surprised and the "big boys" will gobble them up once HHL is gone. Put these in a 70 slab and a 2k profit is easy, IMO. There are also a lot of dealers who will hoard this for the long game.
ebay and Pure markets are clearly different.
The purpose of a Halo item is to give a brand credibility.
Not saying it will be successful.
It's not a cash cow because total sales are less than $65M. That's peanuts to a gov agency.
You are definitely right as far as the buyers club members go. They have no idea what they are doing, are just following marching orders, and are happy for whatever they get, plus the credit card points. Because it's the buyers club operators themselves who are flipping to the Big Boys, and they need to take their cut. Don't cry for the credit card companies. They get swipe fees from the Mint that covers the cost of the points. And, of course, the Mint is making out like a bandit and is happy to pay the swipe fees.
With something like this, I don't even care. I had no interest when it was first announced. Glad I didn't chase it.
People here suffering from FOMO and seeing an opportunity to grab gold either already canceled, or will. Because these have no value at these prices.
People seem to be attracted to the silver. I honestly don't understand why, but dealer bids confirm it. So I was wrong about that. I didn't think there would be enough to attract the telemarketers, but I think I was wrong, because I'm pretty sure they are the ones behind the strong dealer bids.
We'll see in a few weeks, but I won't be shocked to see them in slabs on TV for ~$5K. The lack of bids for the gold tells me that they would end up being too expensive to be sold to the TV crowd, so they sit, as I thought they all would.
But, trust me, anyone still suffering from FOMO will able to get as many golds as they want from the Mint at issue price in the next few weeks. And, they won't want them after they see no one else does. That Pure offer at $10 below issue price, on a sell out a few hours after release, with no dealer bites, guarantees it.
Without regard to intrinsic value, $750 for anything with a mintage of 2026 appears to have resonated with the Big Boys, who are willing to pay up to get them. Not so much at $10K and $20K with the same mintage, in spite of geometrically higher intrinsic value, which is apparently not part of the equation here. It's all just price and mintage. Not even coin vs. medal.
So the possibility of few 70s seems somewhat unlikely as the dies are producing very short runs based on 2,026 number. Not an expert but thinking proof dies, based on the size of the coin, can strike up to 5,000 pretty efficiently. Able to be corrected because this forum knows far more than I.
I was going to get one of the silver's and flip to Pinehurst, they werent buying the gold apparently. Anyway, logged on about 1/4 till, but sat in wait room for like 23 min, at which time about 2 min in, a sign came up saying silver was sold out,. Stayed in anyway, just on the off chance some came back up, nada. Could have bought the 1 oz gold as it was still available then, but I had no outlet for it, and would have had to add another cc with a high enough limit. so passed.
two customers of mine, similar to me, friend of one of the customers had the silver in the cart, but sold out before he could get the cc processed, so they yanked it out of cart. That happen to me back on the v75 gold day
Yeah. We'll see. I'm not flying blind now, but you seem to be blinded by your need to beat me into submission.
Or the process is incapable of producing large numbers of 70s. If you are preselling 70s, you need to have some sense of yield or you'll get killed in the market.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
>
Your issue is relying on PURE. Bad Move. Not a reliable source for taking the pulse of the market.
You do have at least half a dozen sales for 2-3k over for the gold one oz - and also some for the gold half oz. You must give this some time - you dont get immediate gratification.
Most people - as you have seen post to this site as well - do not want to hang up their credit or do not have enough credit to go for the 20k.
24,000 is achieveable - and has been validated by ebay sales.
TBD. Either way, the reason no one is out with them yet is because no one has had an opportunity to get their hands on them yet. I happen to think, with this mintage at these prices, they will almost all be 70s.
Now wait till the USM announces the limited edition silver eagle included with every GOLD purchase.
It is possible for a die to create no 70s. I don't know about this process, nor do you. For a retailer to presell 70s, they need to have an idea of the yield. The reason you don't see presales - which is the question i was answering - is that the sellers aren't confident they can get enough 70s. Part of that may be total supply, but it also may be uncertainty over yield. There is no reason to assume see know anything about the yield of this process.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'm not relying on any one source. I'm relying on widespread reports of dealer bids being pulled, people here reporting canceling gold orders, AND the Pure offer, with no takers. That's both a would be seller just wanting to get out, and an entire community of buyers having no interest at the issue price.
Of course, just kidding.............
the PURE offer is garbage. Not real.
Depends on the process, which has never been used before. Retailers usually presell 70s even without advance release coins because the supply is predictable. In this case, the supply is limited and the process is new. I think that combination is why no one has risked listing them yet. If Pinehurst lists them tomorrow, then it was just a total supply fear.
I have no idea what this new process will yield.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I'd be surprised with that much focus on a new product and process and knowing they would charge high premiums that they would accept anything less than perfection. I agree, I don't know how these dealers do it with trying to predict yields but seems like a risk move.
Yes, I understand. Anything is possible.
And here, no one actually knows anything, because this has never been done before, and no one has graded anything yet. I'm just saying that, with this low mintage and these astronomical prices, I'll be shocked if these grade like Philly ASEs.
Legit retailers have no pre-sales not only because they have no idea how they will grade, but also because, until they actually receive them, they have no idea what they will even have to sell. With something like this, it would be crazy to pre-sell without knowing what you have, and what you'll have to pay for what you get. Which is why all the eBay pre-sales were BS. None of them will actually be fulfilled, given where they market went at 12:05 this afternoon.
And yet the even shorter runs of privy FH and gold omega, made with a well-known process, and sold for higher prices were NOT all 70s.
I see no reason to assume this process is perfect. I also don't know that it isn't.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Then we agree. You could just say that. Lol
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Thx. Didn't know what that term meant.
I totally understand that the total profit on these is wasted & or lost to fraud in a second in the big picture.
But, for this issue it's immensely profitable. Additionally, they can just keep doing it since they have the monopoly.
yes, just like the V75 is what it reminded my of as well
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The logic is that the buyers clubs can get people to buy what they believe will be very profitable flips w minimal cost because the primary driver is the credit card rewards. I'm not saying its a net cost to the cc issuer, just that the main payout to the buyer is the cc via rewards.
As much as it irritates the heck out of me when there's a coin I really want, it's a very smart business model.
Apparently, the IRS treats U.S. Gold Eagles as taxable collectibles, and any profit from their sale is subject to capital gains tax, regardless of the sale amount over the original base price. So, with ebay sales, I can only imagine that the Gold Bells' sales will be reported to the IRS and the seller pays Fed and corresponding state tax at the end of the year. Plus ebay fees and less possible credit card rewards (2% to 3% for example- assuming cards do not report rewards as well.) .
So, I wonder whether the net profit of the ebay sale examples still makes decent scratch?
You were the one who tried to beat everyone into submission with your faking it about the coin market. Maybe you should have looked up eEbay pre-sales and other things like the rest of us did.
Enjoy trying to recover from this, lol.
The Hindenburg never made it back up.
I did not try to order any of these. I was out camping and away from the computer anyway. I clicked on the Mint's email link about 10 minutes prior to release just to see what was going on.
I found the waiting room interesting. It was different than previous early log-ins. Before noon it said "The products will release in 6 minutes..." This was a waiting room of types, but it was not a count down waiting room like previous releases. It was just informing of when it was going to be released.
After noon hit, the waiting room went to normal format "Your estimated wait time is 28 minutes".
Anyone else notice this?
Okay. We agree. Partially. Because, if you'll note, I also said that legit retailers aren't pre-selling because they don't even know how many they'll have, and at what prices, in addition to having no visibility into yield.
I did as well
Yes. That is the way it is supposed to work.
Rather than queuing you up in the order you arrive, encouraging people to show up hours in advance, once they implement the waiting room, everyone there before launch has their position randomized at launch.
That's the countdown clock to launch. Once you have your randomized spot at launch, the estimated wait is displayed. Anyone showing up after release goes to the back of the line.
If you ever saw anything else, it wasn't working as intended.
Only 167 up for sale on Ebay, which is much lower than predictions. Silver Liberty Bells selling for up to $4200 completed.
Then we agree. You could just say that. Lol> @NJCoin said:
You might note that I also indicated both uncertainties.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Seeing only thirteen of the 1 ounce for sale on Ebay this morning
No one knows what “sales” on eBay are actually real and what aren’t.
Even if you take eBay for face value and assume they are all real, I personally don’t think eBay sales showing $2k profits on either of the golds are indicative of what most people are actually going to sell them for on eBay.
Not to mention eBay takes 10% and there is the age old advice, don’t sell anything on eBay you wouldn’t give away for free. One dubious buyer and your profits for the next year are wiped out when this transaction goes south.
I would not sell a $10k item on eBay when the buyer can screw you so many ways.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, coinlieutenant, bigjpst, and joebb21.
Sigh...I don't even know where to start correcting this.
My fees on a $10,000 gold coin listed under bullion are $438 (4.38%).
There are ebay seller protections that don't even exist for returns to the Mint. That "age old advice" is nonsense. You could just as easily say you should never buy a coin with money you wouldn't want to burn because of the non-zero risk of total loss.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
You think you could win a fight on eBay against a buyer who is trying to fleece you for 10 grand?
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, coinlieutenant, bigjpst, and joebb21.
Waiting room at 7:30 am
Box of 20
gold is available this morning, silver gone super fast, had the silver in my cart from yesterday, when I clicked place order it slowed way down and.....no longer available
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Golds are available
Box of 20
Anyone know how many gold are available? Wonder how many people already cancelled.
Edit: 587 half ounces on ATS right now. 768 one ounces. The half ounces look like they are selling 7-10ish per minute and one ounces look like they are selling on the order of 1 per minute. So maybe another half hour to one hour for the half ounces and all day or longer for the one ounces?
Edit 2 (7:43 am): Sales have slowed on both over the past few minutes. They may stay in stock for quite a while. They have each sold 1 in the past 2 minutes.
Edit 3 (7:45 am): Prediction that the half ounce will still be available at 9:00 am Eastern Time and the one ounce will still be available at 8:00 pm Eastern Time. Might be wildly wrong.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, coinlieutenant, bigjpst, and joebb21.