@jmlanzaf said:
This argument is ludicrous. My coin club has 150 members. I'm the 30 years I've been a member, there was only one fire and much of it was recovered. By your math, we should hand lost more than one collection per year to fire and natural disasters.
Alternatively, everyone in the club loses 1% of their coins every year in the mail or the vacuum cleaner.
No!!!
You're members didn't have any 1966 pennies to suffer attrition 30 years ago and they still don't.
Attrition is frequently invisible. It's not always fire and flood. It's not always a single specimen at a time. Attrition is insidious and never stops. Almost all the 1804 dollars survive but what percentage of 1842 dollars survive? What percentage of 1982 quarters survive in pristine condition?
A lot of '50-D nickels become highly degraded I've never put an 1804 dollar in circulation but I've put quite a large number of pristine BU '82-P quarter in it. Many would grade MS-66 or 67. Time never stops and never even slows down. Everything get's less common and things with no value (20c) get less common much more quickly.
Have you never told someone to just spend coins or sold a complete album to someone for 3c per coin that ended up being melted? Do you try to track the coins you think are worthless?
@jmlanzaf said:
This argument is ludicrous. My coin club has 150 members. I'm the 30 years I've been a member, there was only one fire and much of it was recovered. By your math, we should hand lost more than one collection per year to fire and natural disasters.
Alternatively, everyone in the club loses 1% of their coins every year in the mail or the vacuum cleaner.
No!!!
You're members didn't have any 1966 pennies to suffer attrition 30 years ago and they still don't.
Attrition is frequently invisible. It's not always fire and flood. It's not always a single specimen at a time. Attrition is insidious and never stops. Almost all the 1804 dollars survive but what percentage of 1842 dollars survive? What percentage of 1982 quarters survive in pristine condition?
A lot of '50-D nickels become highly degraded I've never put an 1804 dollar in circulation but I've put quite a large number of pristine BU '82-P quarter in it. Many would grade MS-66 or 67. Time never stops and never even slows down. Everything get's less common and things with no value (20c) get less common much more quickly.
Have you never told someone to just spend coins or sold a complete album to someone for 3c per coin that ended up being melted? Do you try to track the coins you think are worthless?
So, only 1966 cents burn in fires and are lost in floods. Got it.
Just about every member of the club has a US cents album and an UNC 1966.
Cents are not getting melted - yet. It's still illegal.
I'm perfectly fine with 99.9999% of all 1966 cents disappearing. I might even be willing to increase that to 100%.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@Coinscratch said:
The OP title is correct as they are tough. I've made 67s in 1955 and 1954 obr cents but never in 1966, can't even find them.
We should start a scavenger hunt for 1966 cents. Everyone pony up the best you currently have and check in by Xmas with any improvements.
The OP is not describing an actual scarcity. He's describing a limited network effect. The availability of other coinage makes this apparent, starting with the TPG populations to anyone who is familiar with this data which he isn't.
Finding it in circulating change or bank rolls in the quality described here is difficult, but there isn't anything unusual about that.
His implied comparison is almost always 1960's US circulating designs. Yes, it's scarcer than many wheat cents, but that's not surprising either.
It's not tough to buy this coin. Despite the disproportionately low prices, it's about as easy a coin to buy as it gets in equivalent or comparable market quality. It's almost certainly easier to buy vs. in the vicinity of 99% of all circulating coins ever struck dated prior to 2000, and not a much lower percentage vs. others. If this coin is tough, so are in the vicinity of 99% of all coins ever made dated prior to the 21st century.
The PCGS population of old, red Gem+ copper is always low. But, regardless. To me, it's less about this supposed scarcity as it is the alacrity with which it is reported.
There is a total of about 30 1890 Indian cents in MS66 or better, including B, RB, and RD. Meanwhile, there's more than 500 MS66 or better 1966 cents. But no one is yelling that the INDIAN CENTS ARE DISAPPEARING or that they are becoming uncollectable.
OK. Fine. Let's say it's true. 1966 cents are tough in 66 or better. So freaking what? People who want to collect them will collect them in whatever grade is available given there are less than 200 1890 large cents in 65 or better, I'm guessing most people collect in 64 or lower.
Actually, there’s less than one “1890 large cents in 65 or better”, or for that matter, in any grade.😉
Actually, I've got one. It's 3 inches in diameter and cast in aluminum.
Nice try, but it’s not graded.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Coinscratch said:
The OP title is correct as they are tough. I've made 67s in 1955 and 1954 obr cents but never in 1966, can't even find them.
We should start a scavenger hunt for 1966 cents. Everyone pony up the best you currently have and check in by Xmas with any improvements.
The OP is not describing an actual scarcity. He's describing a limited network effect. The availability of other coinage makes this apparent, starting with the TPG populations to anyone who is familiar with this data which he isn't.
Finding it in circulating change or bank rolls in the quality described here is difficult, but there isn't anything unusual about that.
His implied comparison is almost always 1960's US circulating designs. Yes, it's scarcer than many wheat cents, but that's not surprising either.
It's not tough to buy this coin. Despite the disproportionately low prices, it's about as easy a coin to buy as it gets in equivalent or comparable market quality. It's almost certainly easier to buy vs. in the vicinity of 99% of all circulating coins ever struck dated prior to 2000, and not a much lower percentage vs. others. If this coin is tough, so are in the vicinity of 99% of all coins ever made dated prior to the 21st century.
The PCGS population of old, red Gem+ copper is always low. But, regardless. To me, it's less about this supposed scarcity as it is the alacrity with which it is reported.
There is a total of about 30 1890 Indian cents in MS66 or better, including B, RB, and RD. Meanwhile, there's more than 500 MS66 or better 1966 cents. But no one is yelling that the INDIAN CENTS ARE DISAPPEARING or that they are becoming uncollectable.
OK. Fine. Let's say it's true. 1966 cents are tough in 66 or better. So freaking what? People who want to collect them will collect them in whatever grade is available given there are less than 200 1890 large cents in 65 or better, I'm guessing most people collect in 64 or lower.
Actually, there’s less than one “1890 large cents in 65 or better”, or for that matter, in any grade.😉
Actually, I've got one. It's 3 inches in diameter and cast in aluminum.
Nice try, but it’s not graded.
No, but it's definitely uncirculated.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Some people are missing the point. The '66 cent is tough in attractive condition. You won't find this date at all without an exhaustive search. There are about "3" / $50 bag. These three coins will be heavily worn and most are culls. You won't find them in bags and some bags will have no Gems. On average only about 40% will be chBU and 4% of those will be Gem. That's if you can find a quantity. That's if you can outbid the retailers who can sell chBU for $3.50
It's the general public putting pressure on the supplies and they are far more diverse than the general hobby. There are individuals of all sexes, races, and creeds. There are lots of young people.
Coins can't sort, save, and collect themselves. It doesn't matter how many were made and only matters how many survive.
In five years a lot of the surviving '66 cents will have been melted because no body is going to go through the copper pennies looking for varieties and better coins. It's not impossible but there's no force likely to change the trajectory.
Many moderns from other countries have already been melted. They are recalled by the issuing authority and destroyed to make refrigerators. Very few survive and what does survive is a random mixture of worn out junk.
@Coinscratch said:
The OP title is correct as they are tough. I've made 67s in 1955 and 1954 obr cents but never in 1966, can't even find them.
We should start a scavenger hunt for 1966 cents. Everyone pony up the best you currently have and check in by Xmas with any improvements.
The OP is not describing an actual scarcity. He's describing a limited network effect. The availability of other coinage makes this apparent, starting with the TPG populations to anyone who is familiar with this data which he isn't.
Finding it in circulating change or bank rolls in the quality described here is difficult, but there isn't anything unusual about that.
His implied comparison is almost always 1960's US circulating designs. Yes, it's scarcer than many wheat cents, but that's not surprising either.
It's not tough to buy this coin. Despite the disproportionately low prices, it's about as easy a coin to buy as it gets in equivalent or comparable market quality. It's almost certainly easier to buy vs. in the vicinity of 99% of all circulating coins ever struck dated prior to 2000, and not a much lower percentage vs. others. If this coin is tough, so are in the vicinity of 99% of all coins ever made dated prior to the 21st century.
The PCGS population of old, red Gem+ copper is always low. But, regardless. To me, it's less about this supposed scarcity as it is the alacrity with which it is reported.
There is a total of about 30 1890 Indian cents in MS66 or better, including B, RB, and RD. Meanwhile, there's more than 500 MS66 or better 1966 cents. But no one is yelling that the INDIAN CENTS ARE DISAPPEARING or that they are becoming uncollectable.
OK. Fine. Let's say it's true. 1966 cents are tough in 66 or better. So freaking what? People who want to collect them will collect them in whatever grade is available given there are less than 200 1890 large cents in 65 or better, I'm guessing most people collect in 64 or lower.
Actually, there’s less than one “1890 large cents in 65 or better”, or for that matter, in any grade.😉
Actually, I've got one. It's 3 inches in diameter and cast in aluminum.
Nice try, but it’s not graded.
No, but it's definitely uncirculated.
This isn’t horse shoes or hand grenades (where close counts).
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
I am not Nostradamus and no prophet so I'm not privy to the future and like all of us I barely know what's going on right now. But I'm still seeing increasing evidence that the supply of all moderns is highly stressed. Bids go unfilled and asks are at sharply higher prices. Some coins have never been easily found which is why I always took a look at '66 one cent coins and tucked away all the nice ones I saw.
You don't need to be Nostradamus to predict that if no demand can cause such stress and the demand continues to increase then the only possible outcome is sharply higher prices. This is exactly what I've been predicting for years and now I can watch it in real time. Or maybe it's just a blip and the demand has peaked.
Then I look around and see what has happened in other countries whose moderns were ignored even more completely than our. It doesn't require very much demand to absorb all of a vacuum of supply. Even if there are 50,000 '66 pennies in gemmy and better grade that's not many coins for a mass market and I seriously doubt there are anywhere near that many good looking coins in MS-64 and above. There are lots of moderns I know are less common than that! There are a lot of Lincoln collections that just stop at 1964.
The easiest way to predict the future is to do it after the fact. The fact is times are changing.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
What a coincidence.
I've been thinking I might as well have one I've been putting off.
@cladking said:
Attrition never sleeps. A lot of them were bulldozed away after the house they were in flooded or burned down. Some were lost in Katrina along with countless million of Mardi Gras doubloons. They get lost in the mail, fall through cracks and stashed by people who don't dig them up prior to checking out. They are destroyed through intent, neglect and misadventure. They are inadvertantly put into circulation and recycled in old cars.
@cladking said:
They made a million 1931-S pennies and when a speculator offered to buy them all they instituted a new mint policy of not making small mint runs any longer. Most '31-S cents survive.
"Attrition never sleeps" but "Most '31-S cents survive." Ok then.
So -why do 50-D nickels get bulldozed away after floods and fires, lost in the mail or destroyed through neglect but not 31-S pennies?
@Coinscratch said:
The OP title is correct as they are tough. I've made 67s in 1955 and 1954 obr cents but never in 1966, can't even find them.
We should start a scavenger hunt for 1966 cents. Everyone pony up the best you currently have and check in by Xmas with any improvements.
A whole life time (three generations) (60 years) has netted me about "25" of them and I actively searched for them.
MS-63 is listed at twenty cents in the Redbook. I'd be interested to see if these naysayers could produce a nice chBU in a month. They made two billion of them and they'll always be common. Since 1965 everybody thinks coins can save themselves but the reality is they failed the bottleneck. They're gone.
The coins are sold on eBay all the time. Yes, right now. Try using it. Yes, these coins are actually good enough for the US collector base.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
I would move it up.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
What a coincidence.
I've been thinking I might as well have one I've been putting off.
You'll need to remove your cents so they can gain entry.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The PCGS population of old, red Gem+ copper is always low. But, regardless. To me, it's less about this supposed scarcity as it is the alacrity with which it is reported.
The number just of NGC and PCGS coins isn't actually low. PCGS records roughly 550 grading events of MS-66 RD and higher while NGC records another 300+.
I'm aware this is low relative to the collector base, but that's "potential" demand, not supply. There isn't a single US coin with anywhere near this supply which is actually difficult to find or buy, except due to the price. That's a lack of a network effect, not a scarcity. A collector also only "needs" one, and the world has never been at risk of "running out" of a single coin as he implies, as that's not how any freely traded market functions.
None of the coins in his threads are "gone" or at risk of it either.
I am able to infer the criteria he uses to measure "scarcity", but the post would longer than his Copilot rants if I were to post all of it.
@cladking said:
Some people are missing the point. The '66 cent is tough in attractive condition. You won't find this date at all without an exhaustive search.
Really?
Are those listings on eBay imaginary too? The NGC and PCGS populations too? Each and every one? Since when does anyone have to obtain their coin as you're implying?
@cladking said:
Some people are missing the point. The '66 cent is tough in attractive condition. You won't find this date at all without an exhaustive search.
Really?
Are those listings on eBay imaginary too? The NGC and PCGS populations too? Each and every one? Since when does anyone have to obtain their coin as you're implying?
If you're a coin hoarder who won't buy a slabbed coin at retail, you have to go on an exhaustive roll search to hit your price point.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I asked ChatGPT about the number of collectors of slabbed Lincolns with grades of MS67 or higher from the 60's on there might be. Here is the response:
If someone asked me, "How many people on Earth would seriously bid on a newly discovered PCGS MS67RD 1962-D or an upgrade-worthy 1963-D?" I would answer:
Perhaps 25–50 immediate bidders.
Maybe 100–150 collectors who would love to own it if price were not a factor.
Fewer than 75 who are genuinely trying to complete an all-MS67RD-or-better set today.
FWIW, of course- I don't play in this market, so I wouldn't even hazard a guess.
And this is the answer to why there aren't more. When the price of the coin equals the price of the plastic, you don't submit. You also don't turn around and throw them in the garbage, however.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
And this is the answer to why there aren't more. When the price of the coin equals the price of the plastic, you don't submit. You also don't turn around and throw them in the garbage, however.
@jmlanzaf said:
And this is the answer to why there aren't more. When the price of the coin equals the price of the plastic, you don't submit. You also don't turn around and throw them in the garbage, however.
What about floods and fires?
That problem is apparently unique to 1966 cents.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Many moderns from other countries have already been melted. They are recalled by the issuing authority and destroyed to make refrigerators. Very few survive and what does survive is a random mixture of worn out junk.
You don't know what you claim to know. Your idea of "few" is also anything lower than "older" (that's 1900-1945 to everyone else) world silver coinage, where you still don't actually know the availability for most of this coinage either.
Yes, I know most developed world "older" coinage is common. I've also given you numerous examples of "older" world coinage which is (far) scarcer than world "moderns" too.
@cladking said:
Some people are missing the point. The '66 cent is tough in attractive condition. You won't find this date at all without an exhaustive search.
Really?
Are those listings on eBay imaginary too? The NGC and PCGS populations too? Each and every one? Since when does anyone have to obtain their coin as you're implying?
If you're a coin hoarder who won't buy a slabbed coin at retail, you have to go on an exhaustive roll search to hit your price point.
Yes, I get that, but most collectors don't buy graded coins while still not collecting like he claims either.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
What a coincidence.
I've been thinking I might as well have one I've been putting off.
You'll need to remove your cents so they can gain entry.
Ahhh...that explains the high attrition rate. No wonder CladKing's coins are constantly degrading.
And this is the answer to why there aren't more. When the price of the coin equals the price of the plastic, you don't submit. You also don't turn around and throw them in the garbage, however.
Then there is this thing called economic time preference which everyone else understands but not him. Well, except when it comes to his time.
@MasonG said:
If nobody's collecting moderns, why would a dealer be looking for them?
You missed it!
I didn't miss anything. You said (and have been saying) that nobody collects moderns. Now, you're saying that prices are up due to demand for coins nobody collects.
You need to learn how to frame a logical statement.
Heaven forfend!
I'm trying to learn to communicate because I don't believe in logic or more accurately I don't believe logic can be expressed in symbolic language as we use.
The collectors of moderns, the demand, is largely coming from outside the hobby. Nobody inside the hobby will pay $3.50 for an MS-63 1966 penny but Aunt Martha from Poughkeepsie is.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
Odds are that this thread will still be going in 2028!
@jmlanzaf said:
And this is the answer to why there aren't more. When the price of the coin equals the price of the plastic, you don't submit. You also don't turn around and throw them in the garbage, however.
Checking eBay sold prices for the last year, these are the top five...
1966 LINCOLN CENT PCGS MS66RD+ PLUS DESIGNATION BUSINESS STRIKE 778904 - $75.00
1966 - Lincoln Memorial Cent - PCGS MS66RD Exact Coin Imaged - $47.45
1966 LINCOLN MEMORIAL CENT PCGS MS66RD 117077 - BUSINESS STRIKE - $45.00
1966 - Lincoln Memorial Cent - PCGS MS66RD - $45.00
1966 Lincoln Cent PCGS MS66RD - $35.00
How much money are you (in general. not directed at any specific poster) willing to spend on grading fees, trying for a 67?
This thread is interesting, boring, intriguing, fascinating and exhausting, all at the same time.
I had hoped/expected that other forumites would look at their Lincoln Cent Albums and report to this thread the number of MS 1966 circulation strike cents they have (with photos). So far I am the only one who has done this [what does that indicate about me?????].
Carry on towards this thread being one that has legs for at least another 10 years
"Attrition never sleeps" but "Most '31-S cents survive." Ok then.
So -why do 50-D nickels get bulldozed away after floods and fires, lost in the mail or destroyed through neglect but not 31-S pennies?
Valuable coins have a much lower attrition rate.
How do "floods and fires" and "lost in the mail" know to spare more valuable coins and take less expensive ones instead?
Valuable coins are more likely to be insured, on higher floors, safety deposit boxes, and vaults. If they disappear the owner notices and looks for them sooner. They're less likely to be lost track of or left behind in a move. They are chased through cracks with crow bars. they are not sitting in flood prone basements or mixed with junk in deals and in transit. They are less likely to be allowed to decompose in barns or buried in the yard. If they're missing in a car accident people go looking for them. If they're lost in the mail a report is more likely to be filed. When the owner admires his coins he's more likely to put the valuable ones back where they belong. When they are displayed they are displayed under lock and key. When they are shown they are shown one at a time. They are far less likely to be left in a recycled car. In a fire they might be grabbed by the owner on the way out.
There are hundreds of reasons. But essentially it boils down to the fact they are better protected at all times. They are attended to and cherished rather than delegated to the most expedient storage.
@cladking said:
There are hundreds of reasons. But essentially it boils down to the fact they are better protected at all times. They are attended to and cherished rather than delegated to the most expedient storage.
With a reminder this is about 31-S pennies vs. 50-D nickels, a lot of collectors use coin albums to house coins such as this. You know that, right?
So tell me- what percent of collectors have separate albums for "valuable" coins and "not-so-valuable" coins, and keep them in different places? Surely, you have stats on that, don't you?
@cladking said:
There are hundreds of reasons. But essentially it boils down to the fact they are better protected at all times. They are attended to and cherished rather than delegated to the most expedient storage.
With a reminder this is about 31-S pennies vs. 50-D nickels, a lot of collectors use coin albums to house coins such as this. You know that, right?
So tell me- what percent of collectors have separate albums for "valuable" coins and "not-so-valuable" coins, and keep them in different places? Surely, you have stats on that, don't you?
When sets become valuable enough they go into safety deposit boxes, A Whitman folder of F and better 1909- 1941 Lincolns is much more valuable than a set of F+ Jeffersons. Not all better date coins are in albums.
I don't see many slabs in folders and not many '50-D's in slabs.
You can't restore two billion1966 Lincolns by proving me wrong about attrition.
Ironically if you went out looking for all those Lincolns you could find them but all you can set your eyes on are the survivors. WYSIWYG. The rest are gone and all those Gems people imagine never existed in the first place.
I searched '66 cents on eBay. There are a lot of them! Most are either garbage or $800 fishing expeditions but there are a great number of them: More than I'd have thought. It looks like the honest sellers are at about two to three dollars for actual choice coins which is less than 20x Redbook (5.50/ roll)(singles list for 90c). A lot of the difference is the effort to ship 50 times instead of once. More interestingly to me though is there does seem to be a higher price as the quality improves. MS-64 does appear to have a small premium. Not surprisingly there are not many coins that might be Gem. One or two nice looking rolls and accumulations that might contain Gems but the odds are against you in this day and age. The 4% Gems have probably been selected out in most cases.
I doubt now that chBU's are going to be much higher in price any time soon. In other words I'd expect the price to continue to correlate more to postal rates than demand because there are too many of them. But a divergence for nice attractive (gemmy) MS-64 in definitely possible. Any continued increase in demand especially demand focused on attractive specimens could exceed this supply. Remember I've been saying that a lot of this interest in BU rolls is for attractive specimens and there are a lot of nice attractive coins in BU rolls.
I'll also repeat that there are a lot of Gems in the '66 cents. Gems can be quite scarce in "as issued" moderns but not '66 cents. They are unusual and everything is rare in pop top.
This coin is not widely collected and if this changes there will be changes in the existing pricing structure.
@cladking said:
When sets become valuable enough they go into safety deposit boxes, A Whitman folder of F and better 1909- 1941 Lincolns is much more valuable than a set of F+ Jeffersons.
This is just silly. There might be three people in the entire country who keep their Whitman folder of Lincolns in a safety deposit box and their Jefferson folder at home because the Lincoln collection is more valuable.
You just made up this example because you don't have a reasonable answer to my question about why, according to you, 50-D nickels get bulldozed away after floods and fires, lost in the mail or destroyed through neglect but not 31-S pennies.
edited to add... Bank safety deposit boxes are subject to risk of floods and fires, too.
It also touched on another reason so few BU rolls were saved; most people knew that the SMS were nice flashy Gems or, at least MS-64. With the huge mintage of two million SMS what was the point of saving inferior BU rolls? Lots of 1965 rolls were hitting the resale market and there were no buyers anywhere. That and the government, FED, and mint were still trying to kill coin collecting.
The "Bible bill" of 1965 S. 2012, introduced in the U.S. Senate by Nevada Senator Alan Bible was nicknamed "the bill to kill coin collecting", the legislation was proposed to help the U.S. Mint combat a national coin shortage by regulating the accumulation, export, and melting of silver and clad coins. It made collecting of all "common coins" illegal. All these many actions to kill the hobby soured collectors even more than removing silver from circulation. People quit saving coins after 1965 so huge mintages have suffered huge attrition and degraded in circulation.
Many of these coins were horribly made because nobody cared about quality yet people never went chasing the Gems. Now many of these are highly elusive.
Rushing out and buying a bunch of moderns is foolish because there are lots of moderns to to enormous mintages and you're going to come home with common coins at high prices. Every day I see more of it. I see offers of $5 for 50c coins because someone has an order and thinks it can't be filled. Often they can be filled and it takes a little time because there is no defined market. Almost all regular issue moderns exist in Gem but there are several that will prove highly elusive well made and pristine. What I like about the '66 cent isn't that it's rare in Gem, It's that it's available but most collectors don't seek it. Most BU rolls do not contain any Gems for this date and the rolls are elusive. When you do find a Gem there are usually several nice coins in the roll.
All I can say is "happy hunting". The coins are fun to collect and there are many challenging coins in every series. Gemmy MS-64's are usually a lot more common than true Gems and make great place holders in collections. Slabbed coins are often very cheap and often contain true Gems. There are still mint sets which are the origin of most modern Gems you can search. The older mint sets are tarnished but they can be restored to pristine condition by a long soak in acetone most of the time.
I sold my collections in 1968 when it turned out girls were even more fun than coins!!! Who knew. I resumed collecting in 1972 when I read that the FED was going to begin rotating their stocks because of a switch to FIFO accounting. I've been scanning my pocket change continually since 1957.
That article, written yesterday, reads like CladKing's CoPilot. It also references a "forum member" and a "forum debate" without identifying the forum.
Comments
No!!!
You're members didn't have any 1966 pennies to suffer attrition 30 years ago and they still don't.
Attrition is frequently invisible. It's not always fire and flood. It's not always a single specimen at a time. Attrition is insidious and never stops. Almost all the 1804 dollars survive but what percentage of 1842 dollars survive? What percentage of 1982 quarters survive in pristine condition?
A lot of '50-D nickels become highly degraded I've never put an 1804 dollar in circulation but I've put quite a large number of pristine BU '82-P quarter in it. Many would grade MS-66 or 67. Time never stops and never even slows down. Everything get's less common and things with no value (20c) get less common much more quickly.
Have you never told someone to just spend coins or sold a complete album to someone for 3c per coin that ended up being melted? Do you try to track the coins you think are worthless?
So, only 1966 cents burn in fires and are lost in floods. Got it.
Just about every member of the club has a US cents album and an UNC 1966.
Cents are not getting melted - yet. It's still illegal.
I'm perfectly fine with 99.9999% of all 1966 cents disappearing. I might even be willing to increase that to 100%.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Nice try, but it’s not graded.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
No, but it's definitely uncirculated.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Some people are missing the point. The '66 cent is tough in attractive condition. You won't find this date at all without an exhaustive search. There are about "3" / $50 bag. These three coins will be heavily worn and most are culls. You won't find them in bags and some bags will have no Gems. On average only about 40% will be chBU and 4% of those will be Gem. That's if you can find a quantity. That's if you can outbid the retailers who can sell chBU for $3.50
It's the general public putting pressure on the supplies and they are far more diverse than the general hobby. There are individuals of all sexes, races, and creeds. There are lots of young people.
Coins can't sort, save, and collect themselves. It doesn't matter how many were made and only matters how many survive.
In five years a lot of the surviving '66 cents will have been melted because no body is going to go through the copper pennies looking for varieties and better coins. It's not impossible but there's no force likely to change the trajectory.
Many moderns from other countries have already been melted. They are recalled by the issuing authority and destroyed to make refrigerators. Very few survive and what does survive is a random mixture of worn out junk.
This isn’t horse shoes or hand grenades (where close counts).
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
There aren't a lot more chBU either.
Went thru all this and decided I needed to make a sandwich. Not sure I learned anything, but did check my calendar for my next colonoscopy appointment. Not until 2028, whew!
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
I am not Nostradamus and no prophet so I'm not privy to the future and like all of us I barely know what's going on right now. But I'm still seeing increasing evidence that the supply of all moderns is highly stressed. Bids go unfilled and asks are at sharply higher prices. Some coins have never been easily found which is why I always took a look at '66 one cent coins and tucked away all the nice ones I saw.
You don't need to be Nostradamus to predict that if no demand can cause such stress and the demand continues to increase then the only possible outcome is sharply higher prices. This is exactly what I've been predicting for years and now I can watch it in real time. Or maybe it's just a blip and the demand has peaked.
Then I look around and see what has happened in other countries whose moderns were ignored even more completely than our. It doesn't require very much demand to absorb all of a vacuum of supply. Even if there are 50,000 '66 pennies in gemmy and better grade that's not many coins for a mass market and I seriously doubt there are anywhere near that many good looking coins in MS-64 and above. There are lots of moderns I know are less common than that! There are a lot of Lincoln collections that just stop at 1964.
The easiest way to predict the future is to do it after the fact. The fact is times are changing.
What a coincidence.
I've been thinking I might as well have one I've been putting off.
Here's 18 Gems for sale right now:
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/2171129/1966-Lincoln-Cent-PCGS-MS-66-RD-18-Coins
Coin Photography
"Attrition never sleeps" but "Most '31-S cents survive." Ok then.
So -why do 50-D nickels get bulldozed away after floods and fires, lost in the mail or destroyed through neglect but not 31-S pennies?
The top pops 67/+ all seem to have die polish lines and a sharper strike
Judging by Coin facts and a few auctions.
The coins are sold on eBay all the time. Yes, right now. Try using it. Yes, these coins are actually good enough for the US collector base.
Thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I'm told they don't exist. Could someone please get that scam listing removed.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I would move it up.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
And again, in case the more frequent participants missed it.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
You'll need to remove your cents so they can gain entry.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The number just of NGC and PCGS coins isn't actually low. PCGS records roughly 550 grading events of MS-66 RD and higher while NGC records another 300+.
I'm aware this is low relative to the collector base, but that's "potential" demand, not supply. There isn't a single US coin with anywhere near this supply which is actually difficult to find or buy, except due to the price. That's a lack of a network effect, not a scarcity. A collector also only "needs" one, and the world has never been at risk of "running out" of a single coin as he implies, as that's not how any freely traded market functions.
None of the coins in his threads are "gone" or at risk of it either.
I am able to infer the criteria he uses to measure "scarcity", but the post would longer than his Copilot rants if I were to post all of it.
Really?
Are those listings on eBay imaginary too? The NGC and PCGS populations too? Each and every one? Since when does anyone have to obtain their coin as you're implying?
Currently there are SEVEN 1966 business strike in PCGS holders on eBay. Yes, just seven.but there are huge number of SMS coins. Seven….prices are ^^^^
If you're a coin hoarder who won't buy a slabbed coin at retail, you have to go on an exhaustive roll search to hit your price point.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I asked ChatGPT about the number of collectors of slabbed Lincolns with grades of MS67 or higher from the 60's on there might be. Here is the response:
If someone asked me, "How many people on Earth would seriously bid on a newly discovered PCGS MS67RD 1962-D or an upgrade-worthy 1963-D?" I would answer:
Perhaps 25–50 immediate bidders.
Maybe 100–150 collectors who would love to own it if price were not a factor.
Fewer than 75 who are genuinely trying to complete an all-MS67RD-or-better set today.
FWIW, of course- I don't play in this market, so I wouldn't even hazard a guess.
And this is the answer to why there aren't more. When the price of the coin equals the price of the plastic, you don't submit. You also don't turn around and throw them in the garbage, however.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
What about floods and fires?
That problem is apparently unique to 1966 cents.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
You don't know what you claim to know. Your idea of "few" is also anything lower than "older" (that's 1900-1945 to everyone else) world silver coinage, where you still don't actually know the availability for most of this coinage either.
Yes, I know most developed world "older" coinage is common. I've also given you numerous examples of "older" world coinage which is (far) scarcer than world "moderns" too.
Yes, I get that, but most collectors don't buy graded coins while still not collecting like he claims either.
Ahhh...that explains the high attrition rate. No wonder CladKing's coins are constantly degrading.
Then there is this thing called economic time preference which everyone else understands but not him. Well, except when it comes to his time.
You know my Aunt Martha??
Odds are that this thread will still be going in 2028!
Checking eBay sold prices for the last year, these are the top five...
1966 LINCOLN CENT PCGS MS66RD+ PLUS DESIGNATION BUSINESS STRIKE 778904 - $75.00
1966 - Lincoln Memorial Cent - PCGS MS66RD Exact Coin Imaged - $47.45
1966 LINCOLN MEMORIAL CENT PCGS MS66RD 117077 - BUSINESS STRIKE - $45.00
1966 - Lincoln Memorial Cent - PCGS MS66RD - $45.00
1966 Lincoln Cent PCGS MS66RD - $35.00
How much money are you (in general. not directed at any specific poster) willing to spend on grading fees, trying for a 67?
Valuable coins have a much lower attrition rate. Saying "most" survive is a bit of hyperbole but I'd not be surprised if it's more than 50%.
It's been pointed out that 1000 coins is a lot but the fact is most collections are missing this coin and have an SMS instead.
The demand can be new demand plus demand for existing collections.
How do "floods and fires" and "lost in the mail" know to spare more valuable coins and take less expensive ones instead?
This thread is interesting, boring, intriguing, fascinating and exhausting, all at the same time.
I had hoped/expected that other forumites would look at their Lincoln Cent Albums and report to this thread the number of MS 1966 circulation strike cents they have (with photos). So far I am the only one who has done this [what does that indicate about me?????].
Carry on towards this thread being one that has legs for at least another 10 years
Valuable coins are more likely to be insured, on higher floors, safety deposit boxes, and vaults. If they disappear the owner notices and looks for them sooner. They're less likely to be lost track of or left behind in a move. They are chased through cracks with crow bars. they are not sitting in flood prone basements or mixed with junk in deals and in transit. They are less likely to be allowed to decompose in barns or buried in the yard. If they're missing in a car accident people go looking for them. If they're lost in the mail a report is more likely to be filed. When the owner admires his coins he's more likely to put the valuable ones back where they belong. When they are displayed they are displayed under lock and key. When they are shown they are shown one at a time. They are far less likely to be left in a recycled car. In a fire they might be grabbed by the owner on the way out.
There are hundreds of reasons. But essentially it boils down to the fact they are better protected at all times. They are attended to and cherished rather than delegated to the most expedient storage.
With a reminder this is about 31-S pennies vs. 50-D nickels, a lot of collectors use coin albums to house coins such as this. You know that, right?
So tell me- what percent of collectors have separate albums for "valuable" coins and "not-so-valuable" coins, and keep them in different places? Surely, you have stats on that, don't you?
When sets become valuable enough they go into safety deposit boxes, A Whitman folder of F and better 1909- 1941 Lincolns is much more valuable than a set of F+ Jeffersons. Not all better date coins are in albums.
I don't see many slabs in folders and not many '50-D's in slabs.
You can't restore two billion1966 Lincolns by proving me wrong about attrition.
Ironically if you went out looking for all those Lincolns you could find them but all you can set your eyes on are the survivors. WYSIWYG. The rest are gone and all those Gems people imagine never existed in the first place.
I searched '66 cents on eBay. There are a lot of them! Most are either garbage or $800 fishing expeditions but there are a great number of them: More than I'd have thought. It looks like the honest sellers are at about two to three dollars for actual choice coins which is less than 20x Redbook (5.50/ roll)(singles list for 90c). A lot of the difference is the effort to ship 50 times instead of once. More interestingly to me though is there does seem to be a higher price as the quality improves. MS-64 does appear to have a small premium. Not surprisingly there are not many coins that might be Gem. One or two nice looking rolls and accumulations that might contain Gems but the odds are against you in this day and age. The 4% Gems have probably been selected out in most cases.
I doubt now that chBU's are going to be much higher in price any time soon. In other words I'd expect the price to continue to correlate more to postal rates than demand because there are too many of them. But a divergence for nice attractive (gemmy) MS-64 in definitely possible. Any continued increase in demand especially demand focused on attractive specimens could exceed this supply. Remember I've been saying that a lot of this interest in BU rolls is for attractive specimens and there are a lot of nice attractive coins in BU rolls.
I'll also repeat that there are a lot of Gems in the '66 cents. Gems can be quite scarce in "as issued" moderns but not '66 cents. They are unusual and everything is rare in pop top.
This coin is not widely collected and if this changes there will be changes in the existing pricing structure.
This is just silly. There might be three people in the entire country who keep their Whitman folder of Lincolns in a safety deposit box and their Jefferson folder at home because the Lincoln collection is more valuable.
You just made up this example because you don't have a reasonable answer to my question about why, according to you, 50-D nickels get bulldozed away after floods and fires, lost in the mail or destroyed through neglect but not 31-S pennies.
edited to add... Bank safety deposit boxes are subject to risk of floods and fires, too.
Please read this article on the 1966 cent, it echoes what cladking said in post#1 https://coinagerings.org/the-hidden-history-behind-1966-lincoln-memorial-cents-tough-in-better-msrd-grades-how-lbjs-coinage-act-sms-sets-and-die-quality-forged-a-modern-rarity/
Thank you.
Excellent article.
It also touched on another reason so few BU rolls were saved; most people knew that the SMS were nice flashy Gems or, at least MS-64. With the huge mintage of two million SMS what was the point of saving inferior BU rolls? Lots of 1965 rolls were hitting the resale market and there were no buyers anywhere. That and the government, FED, and mint were still trying to kill coin collecting.
The "Bible bill" of 1965 S. 2012, introduced in the U.S. Senate by Nevada Senator Alan Bible was nicknamed "the bill to kill coin collecting", the legislation was proposed to help the U.S. Mint combat a national coin shortage by regulating the accumulation, export, and melting of silver and clad coins. It made collecting of all "common coins" illegal. All these many actions to kill the hobby soured collectors even more than removing silver from circulation. People quit saving coins after 1965 so huge mintages have suffered huge attrition and degraded in circulation.
Many of these coins were horribly made because nobody cared about quality yet people never went chasing the Gems. Now many of these are highly elusive.
Rushing out and buying a bunch of moderns is foolish because there are lots of moderns to to enormous mintages and you're going to come home with common coins at high prices. Every day I see more of it. I see offers of $5 for 50c coins because someone has an order and thinks it can't be filled. Often they can be filled and it takes a little time because there is no defined market. Almost all regular issue moderns exist in Gem but there are several that will prove highly elusive well made and pristine. What I like about the '66 cent isn't that it's rare in Gem, It's that it's available but most collectors don't seek it. Most BU rolls do not contain any Gems for this date and the rolls are elusive. When you do find a Gem there are usually several nice coins in the roll.
All I can say is "happy hunting". The coins are fun to collect and there are many challenging coins in every series. Gemmy MS-64's are usually a lot more common than true Gems and make great place holders in collections. Slabbed coins are often very cheap and often contain true Gems. There are still mint sets which are the origin of most modern Gems you can search. The older mint sets are tarnished but they can be restored to pristine condition by a long soak in acetone most of the time.
I sold my collections in 1968 when it turned out girls were even more fun than coins!!! Who knew. I resumed collecting in 1972 when I read that the FED was going to begin rotating their stocks because of a switch to FIFO accounting. I've been scanning my pocket change continually since 1957.
That article, written yesterday, reads like CladKing's CoPilot. It also references a "forum member" and a "forum debate" without identifying the forum.
I think we're being gaslighted.