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1966 Lincoln Memorial Cents Tough in Better MSRD Grades
cladking
Posts: 30,053 ✭✭✭✭✭
https://www.pcgs.com/news/1966-lincoln-memorial-cents-tough-in-better-msrd-grades
I recently went through more than 40 rolls and partial rolls of these that I had cherry picked since 1966. I was surprised to find fewer than 25 true Gems (coins well struck by good dies and clean of marks). Most of the rest had to go to the bank and I sold 17 rolls at a good price.
Nice choice BU coins of this date will prove far more elusive than most realize. This might surprise people but the demand is retail and they are selling at very high prices. If you have any nice chBU rolls of moderns now is the time to start selling.
tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
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People still seem to think that demand for moderns can be swamped by a few hundred graded coins and millions of rolls of nice chBU's that were saved.
But now for the first time there are buyers but they're having a difficult time getting the coins. It's never going to get easier because every year there are fewer of them. It may seen ridiculous to want to put together a set of nice attractive memorial cents but the bashers can't get through to everybody and a few are finding the sets beautiful, historic, and challenging.
Try finding a nice MS-64 '66 cent. Try finding a nice well made MS-65 or MS-66! It's not corrosion or damp basements the problem for these. It's that few were saved and most weren't very nice. This date has a premium all though the '70's and it would have been larger except everyone knew that they made plenty of SMS's.
I guess summer reruns are to be expected.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Well, mine certainly could be better,
whereas the SMS versions are gorgeous.
Is it possible that most of them in the 65-67 years that were graded high have been labeled as SMS? Is there a surefire way to tell the difference other than being the one who found or removed the coin from the set?
Collector, occasional seller
That's a very nice coin and compares very favorably to the 40 cherry rolls I recently searched.
It's an MS-64 with the major distractions being the off center strike and the obverse marking. You could open three or four original rolls and not find one nicer. Of course people hear this and figure that means they're common but that only means they haven't looked for original rolls nor have they priced them recently. Original rolls, especially of coins that don't appear in mint sets (like this one) are showing up at astounding prices when you seem them offered. $40 wouldn't surprise me. It's cheaper to find a graded one that was a mistake in higher grade for 10 or $20.
But how long are these going to be around?
The SMS are nice but less impressive since they come nice. Buy a few dozen '66 sets, clean the cents, and you'll find at least one as nice. The sets are going for around $20 but they're still easy to find.
They are very difficult to be sure.
As a rule of thumb there aren't any as nice as SMS so if it's Gem it's probably SMS. This being said circulation strikes do have a different look and most of them have this look. The SMS have several different looks for this date and one does look a little like a circulation strike.
You can separate them with uncanny accuracy. Keep in mind though that people weren't looking through rolls in 196 looking for Gem. Nobody cared about Morgan dollar Gems so there was certainly no one who cared about clads and moderns. Gems were scarce and got saved only randomly so virtually none exist. When the services say a coin is SMS I'm sure they are usually correct but I do know they make errors in this determination.
There is a nice DDO and also a nice DDR that can be found on the non-SMS cents. They are rare and are part of my mental 'cherrypick' list when I'm running through dealer stock. What's interesting is that it's difficult finding any 1966 non-SMS cents in dealer stock.
Most dealers don't stock anything made since 1965 and this goes ten times over for harder to find BU's. When dealers do put them in a binder they get picked out sooner. What the hobby doesn't understand is nobody can restock. There is no wholesale market and no clearing house. Even finding one online is difficult. I'm sure someone on eBay will be offering quantities at good prices but often the coins will be skunked and worthless to the retail market.
The '66 penny is not scarce, sellers of nice chBU coins are scarce. Nice gemmy and Gem coins are scarce. A tiny demand is meeting a vacuum of supply. This can't continue and BU rolls are even listed in the Redbook now. The buyers offering high prices don't want "BU rolls" they want rolls of coins that can be retailed. Skunked rolls and poorly made coins can not be retailed.
Damp basements?
I remember a modern roll searcher many years back that went by the name of Halijet? Anyway 20 plus years plus ago he got some of the first to grade at MS 66 (along with some 1963’s) and there were so few graded then he was getting $300+. I was under the opinion that too many rolls existed despite the less than stellar die condition and eventually the price would come down – and it did once more were graded. But nowadays MS 67 is the new MS 66.
WS
I used to store coins in all kinds of places. Of course all the valuable and high grade ones have always been in safety deposit boxes but they were in vaults, barns, and basements et al. Funny thing is while humidity controlled boxes were best some coins actually did better under worse storage conditions and some coins went bad no matter where they were.
People can pretend there still exists millions and millions of everything in pristine condition but the fact is very little was saved in the first place, what was saved wasn't the best, and in some cases most of the coins in storage have gone bad. The mint set '68 cent is the poster child of having gone bad. 99 percent are bad and few of them can still be saved because they have carbon spots. Where are you going to buy a nice MS-(sixty four) Look at all those rolls of '83 cents you set aside. Are any good?
The '66 cent isn't all that bad but I wager half of what was saved went bad. A quarter of the SMS's are bad.
These coins needed to be removed from packaging, soaked in alcohol to stabilize them, and then placed in archival flips. Guess how many people did that. People didn't even bother to look for nice coins so how many were take care of after they were acquired.
You'd be lucky if my basement were a cesspool since at least a few coins would survive.
The coins aren't out there.
"Less modern coins survive in top grades year after year."
Yes, but less true collectors are chasing after these modern grade rarities too.
(It's why the prices are either stable or have fallen over the years...)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/358546226625
PCGS MS65 (non-SMS) 1966 cent.
Sold recently for $9.00 plus postage.
PCGS price guide for MS66RD is less than the cost to slab.
edited to add... Actually, considering all fees and shipping, the cost to slab is 2x the current value. Maybe that's why you don't see them for sale everywhere?
I had a bunch of MS66s. Took me 2 years to sell them at $13 to $15 each with shipping. And the cents are popular. Look at nickels, dimes and quarters. I sold MS 67 Jeff's for Uber $10 with free shipping and I think I still have some listed.
I dont mind the exaggerated attrition rates as much as the exaggerated demand estimates. Lol
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
10-15 years ago, I was offered a group of about 100 1938-D Buffalos in PCGS MS64/65/66 holders, which also fall into the "Worth Less Than The Cost To Grade" category. Fortunately for me, I declined the offer. Otherwise, I'd probably still have 95 (or more) of them.
Fewer moderns survive, and you might be right that fewer are chasing the coins that aren't pop-tops but the growing demand is at the nice chBU level. This is largely mint state sixty three and four. There are more people putting together nice gemmy sets and the supply isn't there. There never were very many because few were saved and those that were saved were usually garbage. Now it's all gone and survivors are often corroded garbage.
If the demand continues to grow it will such up everything in short order because... ...did I mention..,. ...there is almost no supply.
The article is quite correct that Gems are elusive. I found only twenty five in 40 cherry rolls. Go try to find a cherry roll and see how many Gems you find in it.
Yet BU's are retailing for two and a half bucks and NOBODY is selling Gems.
https://davescollectiblecoins.com/product-category/cents-2/page/24/
By "retailing", you mean "listed for sale"? Why not go big? Here's a 1966 Lincoln Memorial Small Cent US Coin BN Circulated...
https://www.ebay.com/itm/389750846128
It's listed for sale at only $2,000.
Nobody is selling coins YOU would accept as gems.
People see these prices and think "so what, who cares" but these coins selling for five or ten dollars now were wholesaling for 2c each a year ago. That's so what! These coins have almost no demand yet the BU roll market is being shaken. That's, so what. Of course everyone assumes all these new collectors will come to their senses and start collecting VG wheat cents instead. Maybe they will but the fact is right now the demand continues to grow. That's so what.
If these markets really do continue to grow what would you imagine those hundreds of sixty six cents already graded Gem will go for? You only imagine there are millions more and you probably imagine that those making the poptops have warehouses full of chBU coins that didn't make the grade. Imagine away. These coins are mostly gone. If the coins that grade are one in a million it doesn't mean there are a million coins waiting.
I think you lost the thread.
Nobody is offering ungraded Gems for sale.
"Nobody is selling gems"? There is an NGC MS66RD for sale on eBay right now.
So- MS66 is not "gem"? Okay. What is the numerical requirement for "gem" in your world?
You know you're never going to win this argument. Lol
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Oh, I know that. But I'm not trying to. Nobody wins when arguing with someone employing the "No True Scotsman" approach.
People are just just making up quotes.
All you have to do is click on "quote" so there's no need to change what I say,.
Ok.
"Nobody is selling gems"? There is an NGC MS66RD for sale on eBay right now. So- MS66 is not "gem"? Okay. What is the numerical requirement for "gem" in your world?
Happy? (I know the answer already.
)
And to address the inevitable "ungraded" condition noted above, if you remove the MS66RD on eBay from its holder, then it's "ungraded", right? Does that mean it's no longer a gem?
No. It becomes an "ungraded Gem" but only assuming it was really a Gem when it went in. In the case of '82-P quarters it probably wasn't a true Gem because most are horribly made by worn dies but in the case of sixty six cents this is far less likely because good strikes from good dies are more common ESPECIALLY at the level of Choice Gem. More than ninety five percent should be true Gem.
No True Scotsman.
Told you so.
ROFL.
Ninety five percent "True Scotsmen" just aren't good enough for you.
You must jam everything cleanly into one category or another and never notice that Scotsmen differ most of all. In your world it might be easy since "all Scotsmen wear kilts and play bagpipes". Here in the real world things exist independently of their categories. Scotmen will still be born regardless of which category anyone assigns to them.
You have it all solved so you don't even need to think or go look;
Moderns are all common junk.
these pennies are modern.
the pennies are junk.
E...z P...z. Anyone who disagrees is committing a gross logical fallacy.
You're talking about categories and I'm talking about rare coins. Why must we have a philosophical discussion to talk about every rare modern?
Copilot
You’re talking about rare coins.
He’s talking about category purity.
He never said they were junk. Quite the contrary, he's saying that YOU are saying the gems aren't gems. And he's saying that YOU are arguing that there is no true Scotsman.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
And I said more than ninety five percent of slabbed coins of this date in sixty six holders are true Gems defined as good strikes from good dies and clean.
Removing a coin from its holder doesn't make it a ew grade. It is what it is. I've been misquoted three or four times already i this thread how convenient for their arguments) but I did say nobody is selling raw Gems (only I get to change it)(but I can't use quotes still).
People aren't selling them because they are rare and demand is still quite limited. Nobody has enough to make a market (remember I said a lifetime of accumulation specifically targeted to this coin netted me only twenty five specimens. What am I supposed to do? I can't make a market in these with so few. I can't even sell them for $7 because nobody buys half rolls. I could take them to ay coin shop ad be told to just spend them.
There's a ancient curse; May a rich uncle die and leave you a million dollars... ...in bus tokens.
.
Copilot-
_🧠 1. You didn’t say Gems aren’t Gems. You said slabs don’t create Gems.
Your actual position:
A Gem coin is Gem because of its physical properties.
A slab is a label, not an ontological transformation.
Removing the slab doesn’t change the coin.
Ninety‑five percent of MS66RDs are genuine Gems because they meet the criteria.
The remaining five percent are misgraded, not “non‑Scotsmen.”_
Great. But none of that was said by me. I was just trying to explain how you were misquoting or misunderstanding @MasonG
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I doubt I misunderstand @MasonG.
To some people if there are more than a three of a coin than it can not be rare. If two billion of them were made it can Never be rare.
I think he did win the argument, regardless of whether the other person realizes or admits it.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Perhaps. But which argument did he win; the one I made or the one he misquoted me?
It's easy to make good estimates for the numbers of most classic US coins because mintages and survival rates are apparent. There is demand that corresponds to supply and defines a value which can be used for comparisons. A mercury dime with the same value as a BU '31-S probably exists in similar numbers. A '31-S Lincoln has a fairly well fixed starting point because the vast majority of them were saved out and many of the circs are ones that got released after being saved. You don't see them in low grade so you know they didn't circulate freely.
Everything is different for moderns because nobody saved them and still nobody collects them. There are no "known" quantities and no measurable demand to set price and compare different coins. '66 cents are an unknown and unknowable quantity. The coin often comes nice so poor strikes from bad dies will not reduce the numbers of Gems extent by very much. It's the same for corrosion; this date is relatively stable so any Gems that were saved are more likely to survive. This date was very lightly saved but we're still talking substantial numbers. The primary thing that keeps down the numbers of Gems is marking. They often come clean but not very clean.
Somehow people have the idea that by not collecting moderns it will assure they stay common forever but actually it just makes it exponentially more difficult to know how many exist. The fact is there weren't people setting aside nice choice '66 cents. It didn't happen. I was there I talked to all kinds of people including even a few who were setting aside coins. I've seen what they set aside in the marketplace and in circulation (it was still common to see BU '66 cents through the '70's) and what they set aside was almost entirely random. Gems were scarce in '66, few coins were saved, even fewer survive today. I tend to estimate very high but my guess is about 10,000 well struck clean 1966 cents survive and there are another 50 to 70,000 coins in nice lustrous BU that are attractive. This doesn't include bad strikes and worn dies. It doesn't include spotted, and tarnished coins. It doesn't include coins with poor luster are with heavy scratches. A few of what I'm describing would be graded MS-62, many are MS-63 and most are MS-64.
This is comparable to the number of '16-D dimes in 1957 when I began collecting. Yes there are another 100,000 '66 cents in unattractive Unc and there might still be 200,000,000 in "circulation" but these coins are almost entirely unsightly culls. Collectors avoid unsightly coins.
I never heard anyone say '16-D dimes are uncollectible because they are too new. They were 41 years old and everyone thought it was fair game. The '66 cent is much older today and the common wisdom is that it is common junk.
Time exposes winners and losers, not arguments. The author in my opinion identified a modern coin that is likely to be a winner.
I filled Whitman albums with coins taken from circulation during the time period of 1963 through the late 1970s. I have two or three of these albums covering Lincoln cents from 1941 forward. I have not looked at these albums in years. This thread has peaked my curiosity and this weekend I will take a look at the cents in these albums to see if they contain nice coins or ugly coins.
I do have multiple SMS cents from 1965-1967. Some of them are gorgeous and some of them are ugly. SMS coins have a wide variety of appearances. MS circulation strike coins for 1965 -1967 often look the same as some of the SMS cents that are of lower quality.
Yes. The look of '66 SMS coins is highly variable and not all are easily distinguishable as being SMS. There is less variation in the appearance of Gem circulation issues but even typical ones can be hard to tell when they are very nice.
I've seen hundreds of folders with the first few years after 1964 filled in and j have never seen a Gem. I have seen a couple that were Gem when they went in the folder but like 90% of them (Uncs) they have degraded.
Good luck. I wager if anyone has a Gem it's you.
I do feel lucky; don't ask me why, but I do.
Well here’s the nicest one I had in my Whitman’s, picked in ‘66 age 11. For Submitted it 15 years ago.
Still looks great despite decades blue folder storage
Most dealers don’t stock many post-1965’s because they are trying to make a living not run a lemonade stand.
That is a little nicer than just nice chBU and is what I call "gemmy" (MS-64).
This is what the new collectors are demanding; fully lustrous, well made, and lightly marked coins. A year or two ago you could buy these all day long for a nickel apiece wholesale if you could actually find them but, of course, you couldn't. Now lower grades (chBU) are selling for three or four dollars apiece but are hard to find.
These are exactly the kind of moderns real collectors have but aren't really available on the market.
Since so few collect these there is no price discovery. If you can find a nice chBU roll there should be one or two coins of this quality in it. Many of the BU rolls stored in basement didn't have a single coin even approaching chBU and now many of these substandard rolls are degraded.
The attrition on moderns is staggering. Hundreds of millions, billion, were made but very few saved and the ones that were are very poor quality and are now skunked. Yes, there are many coins that were saved in quantity so are very common in chBU. So?
It depends on the type of dealer. All the shops around here that I'm familiar with have binders of post-65 cents to dollars available for sale. On the other hand, I would think that it's almost certain that specialty dealers don't stock these coins.
Well, yeah. I know that. I don't expect Legend to suddenly start putting out binders of $2 coins.
The problem is people think all the dealers could do this if they wanted to and had the manpower as well as the urge to lose a lot of money. But the reality is they can't. There aren't enough of modern coins to even fill the pipeline. As long as nobody is collecting them every dealer could stock "50" or "60" nice chBU '66 cents but once the collections start forming where do they find coins to restock. This is an emerging market and coins going into won't be back on the market for a generation or two. Even if big name dealers sold these coins they still wouldn't have sellers walking in the door with old time collections. They could each sell their "60" coins and pocket their couple hundred dollar profit. They'd need lots of new employees to card up the coins after the market catches up with the supply in a couple years.
All I'm saying is that a lot of US and world moderns have had increases of thousands and even tens of thousands of percent in the last ten years and I expect this to continue and to broaden. Even at the new higher prices I'm hardly expecting classic US coin dealers to begin positioning themselves for these markets. When a coin goes from $2 to $200 it's still small potatoes and it's still hard to find. There are numerous coins I searched for for decades and never found a single example. This isn't the kind of market that has supported the numismatic industry for the last 90 years. It's not going to morph into it either. This is new. Terra incognita. And nice choice and Gem '66 cents should be in on it.
I've got 25 Gems in a safety deposit box and I don't know what to do with them (they aren't for sale at this time).
You guys got everything about right but I keep telling you I'm better looking than that. Women swoon if I wear shorts.
If by "swoon" you mean acid reflux, I agree.