@stevek said:
Reminder next time I play Xander, to stock up on nitroglycerin pills.
This guy's like a roller coaster. š
lots of guys on that roller coaster. that course and those conditions were brutal. making everyone not named Wyndham Clark look like mere mortals
need a solid round tomorrow šŖ
Sunday sets up very well for Xander T20. Clark obviously has the tourney won, and expect he will be teeing off with a lot of irons. Nobody including Xander has any incentive to attempt crazy shots to try to win it. So Iām hoping Xander just plays steady golf and coasts in for a nice check.
This will be my fourth bet to win on Scottie this year. All 4 he was in top 20 without the win.
I included tomorrow's loss in advance. He will need divine intervention Sunday for his slam win on his birthday. Kim has a birthday Sunday as well.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@stevek said:
Reminder next time I play Xander, to stock up on nitroglycerin pills.
This guy's like a roller coaster. š
lots of guys on that roller coaster. that course and those conditions were brutal. making everyone not named Wyndham Clark look like mere mortals
need a solid round tomorrow šŖ
Unless X shoots himself he is right there. Can't see any of the laggers making up any ground. Not on this course.
Does your book offer a buyout?
Yes, $16.66 right now for my ten bucks. A winner pays $20.00 which includes a 30% profit boost.
My book pays the posted $20.00 amount, no matter how many players, including of course my player, are at that 20th spot.
No way I'm cashing out here with the odds strongly in my favor. If it loses, then it loses. But in this case staying with the bet is the right decision, frankly an easy call.
When I started this thing in the fall, I was adamantly against cash-outs. However midway into football season, I began to realize that cash-outs can be used as part of a winning strategy. You just can't abuse it. Every situation has to be analyzed on its own merits based on the math.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
This will be my fourth bet to win on Scottie this year. All 4 he was in top 20 without the win.
I included tomorrow's loss in advance. He will need divine intervention Sunday for his slam win on his birthday. Kim has a birthday Sunday as well.
Of course that's what makes sports betting so tough, the outliers. Clark was +4500 to win before the tourney began. I just read where he won the US Open back in 2023. So perhaps the 45-1 odds looks like stealing now.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
This will be my fourth bet to win on Scottie this year. All 4 he was in top 20 without the win.
I included tomorrow's loss in advance. He will need divine intervention Sunday for his slam win on his birthday. Kim has a birthday Sunday as well.
I was very surprised to see Clark at these odds. Much higher than I thought. Tells me that at least the bookie computer, isn't calling Clark a lock.
No predictions, but based on that, I think Scottie still has a chance for ya.
there are no guarantees tomorrow fellas. in fact, i would be surprised if someone DIDN'T scare the hell out of Clark or completely suck him up. the guy he's paired with is the scariest human being in the sport. it would be the perfect coronation for Scheffler -- father's day, his birthday, coming from 6 back to become only the 7th golfer to complete the grand slam. trust me, it can happen. all it takes is for Shinnecock to grab Clark. it might be one hole. it may be multiple holes. if you've been watching this tourney intently, it has done just that to golfers for 3 days. it is a very fluid situation because it's such a challenging track.
look no further than the guy we bet on (Xander) and a guy bluejay bet on (Fitzpatrick). Shinnecock had both guys on the ropes are various points today. heck, even Scottie bogeyed his first two holes. each guy showed signs of having the roughest of days. not because they all of a sudden suck at golf, but again, the course. it's a brute. and here's the kicker: tomorrow's forecast is the best of the week. the winds are going to lay down. that means a low round is going to be out there for someone firing on all cylinders. let's say Clark has an off day and shoots 72. entirely, entirely possible. know what Scheffler would have to shoot to beat him? 65. ask yourself, can Scottie Scheffler shoot 65 in relatively benign conditions on his birthday & father's day with the grand slam awaiting him? i mean, you couldn't write a better script. of course he can. we're talking about the best golfer since Tiger Woods.
if Clark shoots two or three under, it's all but over. someone directly behind him at 1-under (like Scheffler) or even par would have to go scorched earth the likes of which have never been seen before to catch him. but if he shoots a pedestrian round or completely blows up, it's far from over. anything can happen. his odds to win reflect that.
as far as my bet is concerned, i go into tomorrow with extreme trepidation. when you're losing money at gambling, you wait for the other shoe to drop with every wager you place. that's where i am right now. doesn't matter if the guy i bet on is currently T6 and hasn't finished outside of the top 15 his entire career at the U.S. Open. my confidence level will be very low until he actually comes through for me (and us, stevek). i've been in this position too many times before.
gl to us all. most probably think it's over due to the 6-shot lead. i sense something different. at the bare minimum, a scare from someone (probably Scheffler). just imagine if the stars align and SS pulls it off with everything that tomorrow has to offer. he will officially be in golf's pantheon.
I probably should have posted this whole pic before. But since I was responding to BLUEJAYWAY, I just wanted to focus on his Scottie pick. Believe it or not, Xander is actually the third favorite to win. All the others not posted are 55-1 or higher.
Looks like I was fairly close with these 2 predictions. Wish I could pick winners as good.
when i first saw that post of yours, i honestly thought the -10 part was a typo. not in my wildest dreams could i ever imagine someone shooting -10 at Shinnecock. remember, this is the 6th time they've played the US Open there. only three players have finished under par at Shinnecock in US Open history, with the best score being 4-under (Goosen). so if Clark shoots -3 tomorrow or even -1 or -2 to come close, that'll be one of the best predictions since this thread started.
In the "old days" at the track, haven't been there in around 25 years, a bet I used to like, and hit on some nice winners, including a few $100+ horses, was say there was a 12 horse field. Say there was an odds on horse and a horse close to it. Seemingly a two horse race. Well if ya don't like either horse and neither wins, then a long shot will win. I'd put a say a buck on the other 10 horses to win. Of course the problem is ya need a 9-1 shot to win just to break even. But it was a great race to catch those 15-1 type horses or higher that wake-up.
I'm not saying Sunday's golf scenario is exactly like the track scenario. However it reminds me of that a little bit.
I'm of course rooting for Xander just to stay in the hunt, couldn't care less if he wins or not, and would like to see Scottie win it for BLUEJAYWAY. But based on Galaxy's comments, it might not be a huge surprise if one of those players comes from the clouds and wins it.
it all starts with Clark. if he shoots under par tomorrow, it won't matter what anyone else does because he has played so well to this point. 6-shot lead + another sub-70 round is virtually insurmountable. but this is golf. tournaments aren't won after 54 holes. go ask Greg Norman. in 1996, he had a 6-shot lead at the Masters heading into the final round. he played flawless golf over the first three days, practically lapping the field like Clark is doing. on Sunday, he totally collapsed. one of the most dramatic meltdowns in all my years of watching golf. Norman shot 78. the guy he was playing with was Nick Faldo, who again was 6 shots back to start the day. Faldo ended up beating Norman by 5 strokes, and that's because he shot 67. the leader cratered, the guy chasing went nuclear.
it can happen. and it can definitely happen when one of the guys chasing is named Scottie Scheffler. Clark controls his own destiny. but if he tempts fate...
I may have told this story before. So I'm at the track late one night, a weeknight it wasn't crowded at all, only simulcasting. Getting my arze kicked as usual. The exact scenario mentioned came up at the Meadowlands harness. Ten horse field, I didn't like the two odds-on favorites. So I place 10 bucks to win on the other eight horses trying to get even.
Well it figures, the favorite breaks from an outside post, grabs the lead, and wins it easily by around ten lengths like a walk in the park. Bad night continued, getting worse, and I rip the dam ticket up into around twenty different pieces and throw it on the floor where i was sitting down. The pieces scattered in slightly different directions.
Well you see it coming, I got off my seat immediately after doing that, and walk about ten yards over to a group of TV sets to see what races were coming up. Well out of the corner of my eye, the group of TV sets included the Meadowlands, I see the winning favorite number blinking on the Meadowlands result board. Meaning of course the stewards were reviewing that horse. I quickly glance at what horse ran second, it was 70-1. I gasped in horror to myself in agony as I may have just ripped up and lost a $700 ticket.
I immediately walked right over to where I was sitting, and very fortunately no sweeper had come over yet, and the ticket pieces were still lying on the floor. I picked up the pieces, knowing that I could tape it together and form a cashable ticket. However I'm also sitting there thinking there's no way this horse is coming down, and I'm just being further tortured. Very long stewards review, and finally the screen went blank, meaning a changer of order, they put up my 70-1 shot, and the odds-on favorite was placed out of the money.
After work the next day, at my desk, I carefully taped the pieces together, then made a copy of it, then went to the track, I knew it would work as long as the barcode aligned, placed it in the tote machine, and boom, the machine spit out a $700+ voucher. If the barcode wasn't aligned completely right, I knew I could take it to a teller, and he would just manually punch in the numbers and letters code, also on the ticket, and it would have worked. But glad I didn't have to explain to him why I was giving him a taped up ticket. LOL
I am tempted for old times sake, to throw a buck on around 10 or 15 players starting with Xander at 27-1. It may actually be a good percentage bet.
But since I'm already invested in Xander, I'm gonna pass on that thought. Besides, in my view now, versus many years ago, that would be undisciplined, and I simply refuse to go back to that sort of behavior. I've developed good habits of staying disciplined, continue to grind, play the math, look for an edge, and keep the bankroll moving in a positive direction. It ain't broke, so I'm not about to fix it.
I must admit though, if a 50-1 shot comes out of the clouds and wins the tourney, I might beach to myself briefly, but I'll quickly forget about it. I think. LOL
I may have told this story before. So I'm at the track late one night, a weeknight it wasn't crowded at all, only simulcasting. Getting my arze kicked as usual. The exact scenario mentioned came up at the Meadowlands harness. Ten horse field, I didn't like the two odds-on favorites. So I place 10 bucks to win on the other eight horses trying to get even.
Well it figures, the favorite breaks from an outside post, grabs the lead, and wins it easily by around ten lengths like a walk in the park. Bad night continued, getting worse, and I rip the dam ticket up into around twenty different pieces and throw it on the floor where i was sitting down. The pieces scattered in slightly different directions.
Well you see it coming, I got off my seat immediately after doing that, and walk about ten yards over to a group of TV sets to see what races were coming up. Well out of the corner of my eye, the group of TV sets included the Meadowlands, I see the winning favorite number blinking on the Meadowlands result board. Meaning of course the stewards were reviewing that horse. I quickly glance at what horse ran second, it was 70-1. I gasped in horror to myself in agony as I may have just ripped up and lost a $700 ticket.
I immediately walked right over to where I was sitting, and very fortunately no sweeper had come over yet, and the ticket pieces were still lying on the floor. I picked up the pieces, knowing that I could tape it together and form a cashable ticket. However I'm also sitting there thinking there's no way this horse is coming down, and I'm just being further tortured. Very long stewards review, and finally the screen went blank, meaning a changer of order, they put up my 70-1 shot, and the odds-on favorite was placed out of the money.
After work the next day, at my desk, I carefully taped the pieces together, then made a copy of it, then went to the track, I knew it would work as long as the barcode aligned, placed it in the tote machine, and boom, the machine spit out a $700+ voucher. If the barcode wasn't aligned completely right, I knew I could take it to a teller, and he would just manually punch in the numbers and letters code, also on the ticket, and it would have worked. But glad I didn't have to explain to him why I was giving him a taped up ticket. LOL
I almost went full send on the Dodgers since I had 6 of those 25% Profit Boosts with $50 max bet, glad I didn't because of course a crappy Baltimore pitcher travels across the country to LA to start a game at 1015 pm and shuts a full strength Dodgers lineup right down.
Glad ya made it under the 20th place, splitting that pot BS. Although it wouldn't have been too bad. Right now there's only one extra player at that spot. So I'm guessing you still would have received around $350 to $400 profit.
Glad ya made it under the 20th place, splitting that pot BS. Although it wouldn't have been too bad. Right now there's only one extra player at that spot. So I'm guessing you still would have received around $350 to $400 profit.
if i didnt win that bet I was going to go get drunk and stoned with John Daly
i still might!
fortuitous day for us, and i'm glad Rosey came thru for blue. i wish Matty Fitz had as well
Dam I hate betting bad team against bad team. But I think Egypt may be the better bad team if that makes any sense? The boosts put the odds in my favor, so I'm forced to play it.
Two wagers:
Egypt ML with a 50% profit boost
Egypt ML with a $5 bonus bet for each goal scored by either team.
Worst case scenario for me is a 0-0 draw, which is not beyond possibility. Perhaps no team can get the dam ball past mid-field.
I've always liked the Egyptian pyramids, so maybe that will work in my favor? LOL
Comments appreciated if anyone wishes to chime in. I caught this when as posted earlier, Egypt won by 3-1, $5 a point, resulting in $20 worth of bonus bets.
Last football season, the book had a weekly anytime touchdown contest. Whereby if your anytime TD player scored first, there would be bonus bets awarded. If he scored the first and last TD, there would be even more bonus bets awarded. One game I got lucky and my player scored first and last for I think it was $134 in bonus bets. Not bad for a lousy $5 bet. Plus I won the money odds on the bet itself.
However these bonus bets aren't as good as ya may think at first glance. On the first two bets I made with the bonus bets, I placed $50 on two lock ML games at very low odds, both easy winners. The "problem" with bonus bets is yes there is no risk on the bet. However if you play lock bets, yes you get some profit, but you receive nothing back on the bonus bet money, and it's gone.
So basically at that point, I hit on a nice contest, then won two lock bets that I would have won anyway, and had only $34 left in bonus bet money. I realize there's no definitive sure things in sports betting, but these ML low odds football games sure are very close to that if you have any handicapping ability at all, and understand the math involved. So the $100 worth of bonus bets really did me no good at all. With the $34 remaining bonus bet money, I played some +150 type games and I think I wound-up making around $25 on that.
So my general question is, yes, a $20 free bet is a $20 free bet, so I shouldn't complain. That being said, I got back into this thing to make money, and maximize every opportunity possible. I guess the math says it doesn't matter if ya play a -10000 game with the bonus bet or a +10000 game. And I realize if I would have lost one of those $50 bets using the bonus bets, I would have been very thankful for the bonus bet. But I've been thinking perhaps in the overall scheme of things, it's best to place the bonus bets on some higher odds in hopes of catching a nice winner? And then coming away with some nice money instead of hitting a bonus bet by wagering on short odds propositions, winning them, but basically coming away with nothing more won using the bonus bets. Sort of a waste of winning a contest?
You guys have a lot more experience at this computer sports betting than me, so any advice or whatever would be welcome. š
Comments appreciated if anyone wishes to chime in. I caught this when as posted earlier, Egypt won by 3-1, $5 a point, resulting in $20 worth of bonus bets.
Last football season, the book had a weekly anytime touchdown contest. Whereby if your anytime TD player scored first, there would be bonus bets awarded. If he scored the first and last TD, there would be even more bonus bets awarded. One game I got lucky and my player scored first and last for I think it was $134 in bonus bets. Not bad for a lousy $5 bet. Plus I won the money odds on the bet itself.
However these bonus bets aren't as good as ya may think at first glance. On the first two bets I made with the bonus bets, I placed $50 on two lock ML games at very low odds, both easy winners. The "problem" with bonus bets is yes there is no risk on the bet. However if you play lock bets, yes you get some profit, but you receive nothing back on the bonus bet money, and it's gone.
So basically at that point, I hit on a nice contest, then won two lock bets that I would have won anyway, and had only $34 left in bonus bet money. I realize there's no definitive sure things in sports betting, but these ML low odds football games sure are very close to that if you have any handicapping ability at all, and understand the math involved. So the $100 worth of bonus bets really did me no good at all. With the $34 remaining bonus bet money, I played some +150 type games and I think I wound-up making around $25 on that.
So my general question is, yes, a $20 free bet is a $20 free bet, so I shouldn't complain. That being said, I got back into this thing to make money, and maximize every opportunity possible. I guess the math says it doesn't matter if ya play a -10000 game with the bonus bet or a +10000 game. And I realize if I would have lost one of those $50 bets using the bonus bets, I would have been very thankful for the bonus bet. But I've been thinking perhaps in the overall scheme of things, it's best to place the bonus bets on some higher odds in hopes of catching a nice winner? And then coming away with some nice money instead of hitting a bonus bet by wagering on short odds propositions, winning them, but basically coming away with nothing more won using the bonus bets. Sort of a waste of winning a contest?
You guys have a lot more experience at this computer sports betting than me, so any advice or whatever would be welcome. š
That's a lot to unpack for someone like me lol
All I can say is what I'm familiar with and that's the Draft Kings app
They rarely offer a free bet but like the other day I got a "Free Bet" reimbursement of a $100 since I had that "Drawbreaker" promotion so I used it on a bet with +114 odds I think it was, I won so the bet paid the +114 so $114, I didn't get paid $214 as if I used real money in the wager.
What app are you using if you don't mind disclosing?
Comments appreciated if anyone wishes to chime in. I caught this when as posted earlier, Egypt won by 3-1, $5 a point, resulting in $20 worth of bonus bets.
Last football season, the book had a weekly anytime touchdown contest. Whereby if your anytime TD player scored first, there would be bonus bets awarded. If he scored the first and last TD, there would be even more bonus bets awarded. One game I got lucky and my player scored first and last for I think it was $134 in bonus bets. Not bad for a lousy $5 bet. Plus I won the money odds on the bet itself.
However these bonus bets aren't as good as ya may think at first glance. On the first two bets I made with the bonus bets, I placed $50 on two lock ML games at very low odds, both easy winners. The "problem" with bonus bets is yes there is no risk on the bet. However if you play lock bets, yes you get some profit, but you receive nothing back on the bonus bet money, and it's gone.
So basically at that point, I hit on a nice contest, then won two lock bets that I would have won anyway, and had only $34 left in bonus bet money. I realize there's no definitive sure things in sports betting, but these ML low odds football games sure are very close to that if you have any handicapping ability at all, and understand the math involved. So the $100 worth of bonus bets really did me no good at all. With the $34 remaining bonus bet money, I played some +150 type games and I think I wound-up making around $25 on that.
So my general question is, yes, a $20 free bet is a $20 free bet, so I shouldn't complain. That being said, I got back into this thing to make money, and maximize every opportunity possible. I guess the math says it doesn't matter if ya play a -10000 game with the bonus bet or a +10000 game. And I realize if I would have lost one of those $50 bets using the bonus bets, I would have been very thankful for the bonus bet. But I've been thinking perhaps in the overall scheme of things, it's best to place the bonus bets on some higher odds in hopes of catching a nice winner? And then coming away with some nice money instead of hitting a bonus bet by wagering on short odds propositions, winning them, but basically coming away with nothing more won using the bonus bets. Sort of a waste of winning a contest?
You guys have a lot more experience at this computer sports betting than me, so any advice or whatever would be welcome. š
That's a lot to unpack for someone like me lol
All I can say is what I'm familiar with and that's the Draft Kings app
They rarely offer a free bet but like the other day I got a "Free Bet" reimbursement of a $100 since I had that "Drawbreaker" promotion so I used it on a bet with +114 odds I think it was, I won so the bet paid the +114 so $114, I didn't get paid $214 as if I used real money in the wager.
What app are you using if you don't mind disclosing?
Since being stuck at below the $300 mark for months. Kept bouncing up and down, around $250 to $290. Once finally breaking thru $300, I've breezed upwards like a knife thru warm butter. Going 6-0 with the World Cup games certainly has helped - a very pleasant surprise.
Hope I can do the same thing at this approaching $400 mark, quickly bust thru it, and not get stuck here for months.
Wouldn't be any surprise if France wins it by multiple goals. However I don't think the math is quite there in my favor at -1000.
May play some props. That dam Brazil game in which I hit the ML easily. The props I was looking at, every single one of them hit, but I didn't have the stones to play any of them. Thinking of that, I may tickle one or two props here with France.
Comments appreciated if anyone wishes to chime in. I caught this when as posted earlier, Egypt won by 3-1, $5 a point, resulting in $20 worth of bonus bets.
Last football season, the book had a weekly anytime touchdown contest. Whereby if your anytime TD player scored first, there would be bonus bets awarded. If he scored the first and last TD, there would be even more bonus bets awarded. One game I got lucky and my player scored first and last for I think it was $134 in bonus bets. Not bad for a lousy $5 bet. Plus I won the money odds on the bet itself.
However these bonus bets aren't as good as ya may think at first glance. On the first two bets I made with the bonus bets, I placed $50 on two lock ML games at very low odds, both easy winners. The "problem" with bonus bets is yes there is no risk on the bet. However if you play lock bets, yes you get some profit, but you receive nothing back on the bonus bet money, and it's gone.
So basically at that point, I hit on a nice contest, then won two lock bets that I would have won anyway, and had only $34 left in bonus bet money. I realize there's no definitive sure things in sports betting, but these ML low odds football games sure are very close to that if you have any handicapping ability at all, and understand the math involved. So the $100 worth of bonus bets really did me no good at all. With the $34 remaining bonus bet money, I played some +150 type games and I think I wound-up making around $25 on that.
So my general question is, yes, a $20 free bet is a $20 free bet, so I shouldn't complain. That being said, I got back into this thing to make money, and maximize every opportunity possible. I guess the math says it doesn't matter if ya play a -10000 game with the bonus bet or a +10000 game. And I realize if I would have lost one of those $50 bets using the bonus bets, I would have been very thankful for the bonus bet. But I've been thinking perhaps in the overall scheme of things, it's best to place the bonus bets on some higher odds in hopes of catching a nice winner? And then coming away with some nice money instead of hitting a bonus bet by wagering on short odds propositions, winning them, but basically coming away with nothing more won using the bonus bets. Sort of a waste of winning a contest?
You guys have a lot more experience at this computer sports betting than me, so any advice or whatever would be welcome. š
That's a lot to unpack for someone like me lol
All I can say is what I'm familiar with and that's the Draft Kings app
They rarely offer a free bet but like the other day I got a "Free Bet" reimbursement of a $100 since I had that "Drawbreaker" promotion so I used it on a bet with +114 odds I think it was, I won so the bet paid the +114 so $114, I didn't get paid $214 as if I used real money in the wager.
What app are you using if you don't mind disclosing?
FD
My buddy does FD, he gets similar props from time to time
Comments appreciated if anyone wishes to chime in. I caught this when as posted earlier, Egypt won by 3-1, $5 a point, resulting in $20 worth of bonus bets.
Last football season, the book had a weekly anytime touchdown contest. Whereby if your anytime TD player scored first, there would be bonus bets awarded. If he scored the first and last TD, there would be even more bonus bets awarded. One game I got lucky and my player scored first and last for I think it was $134 in bonus bets. Not bad for a lousy $5 bet. Plus I won the money odds on the bet itself.
However these bonus bets aren't as good as ya may think at first glance. On the first two bets I made with the bonus bets, I placed $50 on two lock ML games at very low odds, both easy winners. The "problem" with bonus bets is yes there is no risk on the bet. However if you play lock bets, yes you get some profit, but you receive nothing back on the bonus bet money, and it's gone.
So basically at that point, I hit on a nice contest, then won two lock bets that I would have won anyway, and had only $34 left in bonus bet money. I realize there's no definitive sure things in sports betting, but these ML low odds football games sure are very close to that if you have any handicapping ability at all, and understand the math involved. So the $100 worth of bonus bets really did me no good at all. With the $34 remaining bonus bet money, I played some +150 type games and I think I wound-up making around $25 on that.
So my general question is, yes, a $20 free bet is a $20 free bet, so I shouldn't complain. That being said, I got back into this thing to make money, and maximize every opportunity possible. I guess the math says it doesn't matter if ya play a -10000 game with the bonus bet or a +10000 game. And I realize if I would have lost one of those $50 bets using the bonus bets, I would have been very thankful for the bonus bet. But I've been thinking perhaps in the overall scheme of things, it's best to place the bonus bets on some higher odds in hopes of catching a nice winner? And then coming away with some nice money instead of hitting a bonus bet by wagering on short odds propositions, winning them, but basically coming away with nothing more won using the bonus bets. Sort of a waste of winning a contest?
You guys have a lot more experience at this computer sports betting than me, so any advice or whatever would be welcome. š
That's a lot to unpack for someone like me lol
All I can say is what I'm familiar with and that's the Draft Kings app
They rarely offer a free bet but like the other day I got a "Free Bet" reimbursement of a $100 since I had that "Drawbreaker" promotion so I used it on a bet with +114 odds I think it was, I won so the bet paid the +114 so $114, I didn't get paid $214 as if I used real money in the wager.
What app are you using if you don't mind disclosing?
FD
.
It's probably like six of one, half dozen of the other. I'm just looking to squeeze every advantage possible out of a book.
I've said this before, and I think it's worth saying again. I'm doing much better this season live, than doing it the season before on paper. Admittedly, I think I'm reading the lines and doing the math a bit better. But no doubt an important factor are the bookie boosts, bonuses, etc, that they offer.
In the past and likely still today, the local illegal books offer none of that. Although if there's a poker game at their house, they might spring for some food and drinks, that's about it. I'm not sure what the offshore books do? I'm not interested in them anyway because I don't trust them with my money or account information.
I'm still looking at someday opening up an account with Kalshi and Polymarket. Tons of money being bet at those two sites. So there must be some benefit to it. They are legit, no question about that. However I don't think they offer the various comps that DK, FD, and the other around eight or ten, whatever number it is, legit US books offer. However I'm not sure about that with Kalshi and Polymarket. Perhaps they do rebates or whatever, again, not sure at all.
It's coming up to a year since I've been doing this live. As of this post, I've turned $100 into $390. Peanuts of course, but percentage wise, fairly significant in my view. The key is will it continue or is it just sort of a lucky streak? I'm still not 100% sure either way. All that being said, it does feel like staying disciplined, playing the right games and situations where I believe the odds are in my favor, etc, maybe, just maybe, I can make a few dollars at it in the long run. We shall see.
I know I can sure use the money. My 1996 Ford Taurus is having trouble getting up hills. Maybe I can make some extra money at sports betting, and upgrade to a 2005 model. LOL
the upcoming game with Turkey is interesting because we have absolutely no competitive incentive to win. there will most likely be positional rotations as a result. tough game to handicap.
Comments
lots of guys on that roller coaster. that course and those conditions were brutal. making everyone not named Wyndham Clark look like mere mortals
need a solid round tomorrow šŖ
Pour it on Phillies. I'm all over this game. š²
Sunday sets up very well for Xander T20. Clark obviously has the tourney won, and expect he will be teeing off with a lot of irons. Nobody including Xander has any incentive to attempt crazy shots to try to win it. So Iām hoping Xander just plays steady golf and coasts in for a nice check.
Unless X shoots himself he is right there. Can't see any of the laggers making up any ground. Not on this course.
Does your book offer a buyout?
This will be my fourth bet to win on Scottie this year. All 4 he was in top 20 without the win.
I included tomorrow's loss in advance. He will need divine intervention Sunday for his slam win on his birthday. Kim has a birthday Sunday as well.
Yes, $16.66 right now for my ten bucks. A winner pays $20.00 which includes a 30% profit boost.
My book pays the posted $20.00 amount, no matter how many players, including of course my player, are at that 20th spot.
No way I'm cashing out here with the odds strongly in my favor. If it loses, then it loses. But in this case staying with the bet is the right decision, frankly an easy call.
When I started this thing in the fall, I was adamantly against cash-outs. However midway into football season, I began to realize that cash-outs can be used as part of a winning strategy. You just can't abuse it. Every situation has to be analyzed on its own merits based on the math.
Of course that's what makes sports betting so tough, the outliers. Clark was +4500 to win before the tourney began. I just read where he won the US Open back in 2023. So perhaps the 45-1 odds looks like stealing now.
I was very surprised to see Clark at these odds. Much higher than I thought. Tells me that at least the bookie computer, isn't calling Clark a lock.
No predictions, but based on that, I think Scottie still has a chance for ya.
there are no guarantees tomorrow fellas. in fact, i would be surprised if someone DIDN'T scare the hell out of Clark or completely suck him up. the guy he's paired with is the scariest human being in the sport. it would be the perfect coronation for Scheffler -- father's day, his birthday, coming from 6 back to become only the 7th golfer to complete the grand slam. trust me, it can happen. all it takes is for Shinnecock to grab Clark. it might be one hole. it may be multiple holes. if you've been watching this tourney intently, it has done just that to golfers for 3 days. it is a very fluid situation because it's such a challenging track.
look no further than the guy we bet on (Xander) and a guy bluejay bet on (Fitzpatrick). Shinnecock had both guys on the ropes are various points today. heck, even Scottie bogeyed his first two holes. each guy showed signs of having the roughest of days. not because they all of a sudden suck at golf, but again, the course. it's a brute. and here's the kicker: tomorrow's forecast is the best of the week. the winds are going to lay down. that means a low round is going to be out there for someone firing on all cylinders. let's say Clark has an off day and shoots 72. entirely, entirely possible. know what Scheffler would have to shoot to beat him? 65. ask yourself, can Scottie Scheffler shoot 65 in relatively benign conditions on his birthday & father's day with the grand slam awaiting him? i mean, you couldn't write a better script. of course he can. we're talking about the best golfer since Tiger Woods.
if Clark shoots two or three under, it's all but over. someone directly behind him at 1-under (like Scheffler) or even par would have to go scorched earth the likes of which have never been seen before to catch him. but if he shoots a pedestrian round or completely blows up, it's far from over. anything can happen. his odds to win reflect that.
as far as my bet is concerned, i go into tomorrow with extreme trepidation. when you're losing money at gambling, you wait for the other shoe to drop with every wager you place. that's where i am right now. doesn't matter if the guy i bet on is currently T6 and hasn't finished outside of the top 15 his entire career at the U.S. Open. my confidence level will be very low until he actually comes through for me (and us, stevek). i've been in this position too many times before.
gl to us all. most probably think it's over due to the 6-shot lead. i sense something different. at the bare minimum, a scare from someone (probably Scheffler). just imagine if the stars align and SS pulls it off with everything that tomorrow has to offer. he will officially be in golf's pantheon.
3 weeks ago my odds on Scottie I received were 550. Pretty sure the win spot will be decided by the front 9.
Looks like I was fairly close with these 2 predictions. Wish I could pick winners as good.
I probably should have posted this whole pic before. But since I was responding to BLUEJAYWAY, I just wanted to focus on his Scottie pick. Believe it or not, Xander is actually the third favorite to win. All the others not posted are 55-1 or higher.
when i first saw that post of yours, i honestly thought the -10 part was a typo. not in my wildest dreams could i ever imagine someone shooting -10 at Shinnecock. remember, this is the 6th time they've played the US Open there. only three players have finished under par at Shinnecock in US Open history, with the best score being 4-under (Goosen). so if Clark shoots -3 tomorrow or even -1 or -2 to come close, that'll be one of the best predictions since this thread started.
In the "old days" at the track, haven't been there in around 25 years, a bet I used to like, and hit on some nice winners, including a few $100+ horses, was say there was a 12 horse field. Say there was an odds on horse and a horse close to it. Seemingly a two horse race. Well if ya don't like either horse and neither wins, then a long shot will win. I'd put a say a buck on the other 10 horses to win. Of course the problem is ya need a 9-1 shot to win just to break even. But it was a great race to catch those 15-1 type horses or higher that wake-up.
I'm not saying Sunday's golf scenario is exactly like the track scenario. However it reminds me of that a little bit.
I'm of course rooting for Xander just to stay in the hunt, couldn't care less if he wins or not, and would like to see Scottie win it for BLUEJAYWAY. But based on Galaxy's comments, it might not be a huge surprise if one of those players comes from the clouds and wins it.
@stevek
it all starts with Clark. if he shoots under par tomorrow, it won't matter what anyone else does because he has played so well to this point. 6-shot lead + another sub-70 round is virtually insurmountable. but this is golf. tournaments aren't won after 54 holes. go ask Greg Norman. in 1996, he had a 6-shot lead at the Masters heading into the final round. he played flawless golf over the first three days, practically lapping the field like Clark is doing. on Sunday, he totally collapsed. one of the most dramatic meltdowns in all my years of watching golf. Norman shot 78. the guy he was playing with was Nick Faldo, who again was 6 shots back to start the day. Faldo ended up beating Norman by 5 strokes, and that's because he shot 67. the leader cratered, the guy chasing went nuclear.
it can happen. and it can definitely happen when one of the guys chasing is named Scottie Scheffler. Clark controls his own destiny. but if he tempts fate...
I may have told this story before. So I'm at the track late one night, a weeknight it wasn't crowded at all, only simulcasting. Getting my arze kicked as usual. The exact scenario mentioned came up at the Meadowlands harness. Ten horse field, I didn't like the two odds-on favorites. So I place 10 bucks to win on the other eight horses trying to get even.
Well it figures, the favorite breaks from an outside post, grabs the lead, and wins it easily by around ten lengths like a walk in the park. Bad night continued, getting worse, and I rip the dam ticket up into around twenty different pieces and throw it on the floor where i was sitting down. The pieces scattered in slightly different directions.
Well you see it coming, I got off my seat immediately after doing that, and walk about ten yards over to a group of TV sets to see what races were coming up. Well out of the corner of my eye, the group of TV sets included the Meadowlands, I see the winning favorite number blinking on the Meadowlands result board. Meaning of course the stewards were reviewing that horse. I quickly glance at what horse ran second, it was 70-1. I gasped in horror to myself in agony as I may have just ripped up and lost a $700 ticket.
I immediately walked right over to where I was sitting, and very fortunately no sweeper had come over yet, and the ticket pieces were still lying on the floor. I picked up the pieces, knowing that I could tape it together and form a cashable ticket. However I'm also sitting there thinking there's no way this horse is coming down, and I'm just being further tortured. Very long stewards review, and finally the screen went blank, meaning a changer of order, they put up my 70-1 shot, and the odds-on favorite was placed out of the money.
After work the next day, at my desk, I carefully taped the pieces together, then made a copy of it, then went to the track, I knew it would work as long as the barcode aligned, placed it in the tote machine, and boom, the machine spit out a $700+ voucher. If the barcode wasn't aligned completely right, I knew I could take it to a teller, and he would just manually punch in the numbers and letters code, also on the ticket, and it would have worked. But glad I didn't have to explain to him why I was giving him a taped up ticket. LOL
I am tempted for old times sake, to throw a buck on around 10 or 15 players starting with Xander at 27-1. It may actually be a good percentage bet.
But since I'm already invested in Xander, I'm gonna pass on that thought. Besides, in my view now, versus many years ago, that would be undisciplined, and I simply refuse to go back to that sort of behavior. I've developed good habits of staying disciplined, continue to grind, play the math, look for an edge, and keep the bankroll moving in a positive direction. It ain't broke, so I'm not about to fix it.
I must admit though, if a 50-1 shot comes out of the clouds and wins the tourney, I might beach to myself briefly, but I'll quickly forget about it. I think. LOL
that is a wild story
PRECISELY something i would do
My action yesterday.
I almost went full send on the Dodgers since I had 6 of those 25% Profit Boosts with $50 max bet, glad I didn't because of course a crappy Baltimore pitcher travels across the country to LA to start a game at 1015 pm and shuts a full strength Dodgers lineup right down.
Only $50 but that Dodger game pissed me right off
Good luck with the golf today fellas
Clark may be hearing footsteps from a morning 30-1 shot.
A nice 4-0 thus far in World Cup games. Very handicappable sport or blind squirrel luck? I'm not sure yet. LOL
All I know for sure is I've got two fat 50% profit boosts that expire by the end of today. So I gotta at least play two games.
So Xander has to make it interesting with six holes left to play. Down to a one shot cushion.
I didn't want "interesting" today. š
Just went from no cushion to a one shot cushion again, with a nice birdie on 15.
I cancelled my call to the paramedics. Told them to put me on hold for now.
Glad ya made it under the 20th place, splitting that pot BS. Although it wouldn't have been too bad. Right now there's only one extra player at that spot. So I'm guessing you still would have received around $350 to $400 profit.
if i didnt win that bet I was going to go get drunk and stoned with John Daly
i still might!
fortuitous day for us, and i'm glad Rosey came thru for blue. i wish Matty Fitz had as well
Speaking of outliers, how the yell do ya possibly handicap this game conclusion?
Dam I hate betting bad team against bad team. But I think Egypt may be the better bad team if that makes any sense? The boosts put the odds in my favor, so I'm forced to play it.
Two wagers:
Egypt ML with a 50% profit boost
Egypt ML with a $5 bonus bet for each goal scored by either team.
Worst case scenario for me is a 0-0 draw, which is not beyond possibility. Perhaps no team can get the dam ball past mid-field.
I've always liked the Egyptian pyramids, so maybe that will work in my favor? LOL
Has a "Drawbreaker" for Soccer meaning if you bet a team ML and it finishes in a draw you get a credit up to a $100 match bet
So Belgium ended in a draw so I went with the Philly's
Freaking ridiculous, I almost went with the Dodgers to make up for that ridiculous 3-2 loss and I'm glad I didn't
Baltimore destroying them is one thing but beating them 2 in a row hurt some gamblers
I saw that "Drawbreaker" on one of your bets, and was wondering exactly how that worked? Very nice feature cutting the bettor a break.
My book hasn't offered that. However they have offered an extraordinary amount of 50% profit boosts on the World Cup, so I can't complain.
Maybe Argentina can play like Argentina today
š¦š·
Comments appreciated if anyone wishes to chime in. I caught this when as posted earlier, Egypt won by 3-1, $5 a point, resulting in $20 worth of bonus bets.
Last football season, the book had a weekly anytime touchdown contest. Whereby if your anytime TD player scored first, there would be bonus bets awarded. If he scored the first and last TD, there would be even more bonus bets awarded. One game I got lucky and my player scored first and last for I think it was $134 in bonus bets. Not bad for a lousy $5 bet. Plus I won the money odds on the bet itself.
However these bonus bets aren't as good as ya may think at first glance. On the first two bets I made with the bonus bets, I placed $50 on two lock ML games at very low odds, both easy winners. The "problem" with bonus bets is yes there is no risk on the bet. However if you play lock bets, yes you get some profit, but you receive nothing back on the bonus bet money, and it's gone.
So basically at that point, I hit on a nice contest, then won two lock bets that I would have won anyway, and had only $34 left in bonus bet money. I realize there's no definitive sure things in sports betting, but these ML low odds football games sure are very close to that if you have any handicapping ability at all, and understand the math involved. So the $100 worth of bonus bets really did me no good at all. With the $34 remaining bonus bet money, I played some +150 type games and I think I wound-up making around $25 on that.
So my general question is, yes, a $20 free bet is a $20 free bet, so I shouldn't complain. That being said, I got back into this thing to make money, and maximize every opportunity possible. I guess the math says it doesn't matter if ya play a -10000 game with the bonus bet or a +10000 game. And I realize if I would have lost one of those $50 bets using the bonus bets, I would have been very thankful for the bonus bet. But I've been thinking perhaps in the overall scheme of things, it's best to place the bonus bets on some higher odds in hopes of catching a nice winner? And then coming away with some nice money instead of hitting a bonus bet by wagering on short odds propositions, winning them, but basically coming away with nothing more won using the bonus bets. Sort of a waste of winning a contest?
You guys have a lot more experience at this computer sports betting than me, so any advice or whatever would be welcome. š
Can't help you in regard to computer betting. I still use an abacus.š
Well I might forget about it, so I'll use the bonus bet right now.
Argentina ML
The math is close on it, but I think it favors Argentina a little bit.
š¦š· nice hit fellas š¦š·
That's a lot to unpack for someone like me lol
All I can say is what I'm familiar with and that's the Draft Kings app
They rarely offer a free bet but like the other day I got a "Free Bet" reimbursement of a $100 since I had that "Drawbreaker" promotion so I used it on a bet with +114 odds I think it was, I won so the bet paid the +114 so $114, I didn't get paid $214 as if I used real money in the wager.
What app are you using if you don't mind disclosing?
FD
Since being stuck at below the $300 mark for months. Kept bouncing up and down, around $250 to $290. Once finally breaking thru $300, I've breezed upwards like a knife thru warm butter. Going 6-0 with the World Cup games certainly has helped - a very pleasant surprise.
Hope I can do the same thing at this approaching $400 mark, quickly bust thru it, and not get stuck here for months.
France versus Iraq coming up at 5:00
Wouldn't be any surprise if France wins it by multiple goals. However I don't think the math is quite there in my favor at -1000.
May play some props. That dam Brazil game in which I hit the ML easily. The props I was looking at, every single one of them hit, but I didn't have the stones to play any of them. Thinking of that, I may tickle one or two props here with France.
My buddy does FD, he gets similar props from time to time
He says he likes it better than DK
.
It's probably like six of one, half dozen of the other. I'm just looking to squeeze every advantage possible out of a book.
I've said this before, and I think it's worth saying again. I'm doing much better this season live, than doing it the season before on paper. Admittedly, I think I'm reading the lines and doing the math a bit better. But no doubt an important factor are the bookie boosts, bonuses, etc, that they offer.
In the past and likely still today, the local illegal books offer none of that. Although if there's a poker game at their house, they might spring for some food and drinks, that's about it. I'm not sure what the offshore books do? I'm not interested in them anyway because I don't trust them with my money or account information.
I'm still looking at someday opening up an account with Kalshi and Polymarket. Tons of money being bet at those two sites. So there must be some benefit to it. They are legit, no question about that. However I don't think they offer the various comps that DK, FD, and the other around eight or ten, whatever number it is, legit US books offer. However I'm not sure about that with Kalshi and Polymarket. Perhaps they do rebates or whatever, again, not sure at all.
It's coming up to a year since I've been doing this live. As of this post, I've turned $100 into $390. Peanuts of course, but percentage wise, fairly significant in my view. The key is will it continue or is it just sort of a lucky streak? I'm still not 100% sure either way. All that being said, it does feel like staying disciplined, playing the right games and situations where I believe the odds are in my favor, etc, maybe, just maybe, I can make a few dollars at it in the long run. We shall see.
I know I can sure use the money. My 1996 Ford Taurus is having trouble getting up hills. Maybe I can make some extra money at sports betting, and upgrade to a 2005 model. LOL
my Travelers play
-6770.67
1:00 game
Portugal ML
Maybe some Portugal props.
I like Columbia tonight ML at -185
Portugal - Cristiano Ronaldo - anytime goal
Did you hit on Scottie in golf?
Thought you had a nice play going
the upcoming game with Turkey is interesting because we have absolutely no competitive incentive to win. there will most likely be positional rotations as a result. tough game to handicap.
i didn't bet on Scheffler -- i had money on Xander Schauffele (Steve did too)
we won by the skin of our teeth
Awesome job!!!
Happy for you both š»