Can the Minnesota Wild afford Dylan Larkin?
JoeBanzai
Posts: 12,763 ✭✭✭✭✭
It doesn't look like it to me.
The Wild are currently $9.4M under the cap (I do not claim to be a cap expert by any means!).
Dylan Larkin makes $8.7M, so at first glance, the answer would be YES, we can afford him and finally get a top center to hopefully make the Wild a serious contender for a championship.
However, we still need to fill 4 (3 if we don't give up a player on the current roster) roster spots. Probably 2 forwards and 2 defensemen. 4 rookie, or NHL minimum salary contracts are at least $3.6M. So it looks to me like we have about $5.8M, NOT $9.4M.
The names that get thrown out in a possible trade for Larkin are; Wallstedt, Stramel and Yurov AND a1st round pick. I would NOT like to include Jesper Wallstedt in any trade! He is playing for $2.2M and looks like the goalie of the future right now. That proposal would seemingly make the money work, IF Detroit is interested, with saving $4.2M the 3 Wild players are making, BUT it puts you right up to the cap (over?) as you then need to replace your goalie (of the future?), plus the 2 defenseman and another forward.
_People never seem to consider you need a full 23 man roster when looking at cap space.
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Would Detroit be willing to take a guy like Jonas Brodin in the trade? Jonas's no move contract is done and at $6M and 32 years old, he's still a great defender. Detroit is way under the cap and they have money to spend on Defense.
Filip Gustavsson's contract looks terrible at the moment, with his injury and late season performance last year. A BIG question on Wild management's mind must be; "do we hope Gus can be good enough to help us go all the way?". If you give up Wallstedt and he develops into a superstar without the Wild winning the Cup at least once, the complaining is going to be unbelievable!
I really don't see anyone else the Wild can easily get rid of to shed salary that anyone would want.
The good news is we CAN afford Quinn Hughes next year with Jared Spurgeon's contract of $7.575M expiring.
I am REALLY hoping Quinn wants to play here, but if he wants to play with his brothers in NJ, I wouldn't blame him.
The Wild are at a HUGE crossroads right now. GM Bill Guerin seems to be trying to gamble the future on winning now. The down side is giving up the future young players and more first round exits.
It's a fascinating time right now for Wild fans!
GO WILD!
Comments
I think they have to dump Gustavsson & either Brodin or Eriksson Ek may need to go.
They way overpaid for Kaprizov at $17M a year. Unfortunately, he disappears in noticeable spurts; especially in the playoffs. I haven't seen the big names do the same that kept on playing beyond Kiril's exit.
My guesss is Guerin will pull it off and it will likely involve a 3rd team.
If you do this, you stop hanging on to some of these old guys that don't really contribute much. To me, they need to get faster/quicker and put some faith into younger guys. Like the Twins, they seem to slow-roll the young guys too often. They didn't do that with Faber - speaking of which, what a steal he was. Make a couple more of those pickups with savvy scouting...
FWIW, I'm much more optimistic on the ability for the Wild to win the Cup compared the the Wolves to win the NBA. The GM of the Wolves is so overrated and overpaid it's unbelievable. Gave all that up for Gobert & then watch KAT excel while Julius Randle sucks. I digress but the problem with the Wolves is that they need to fire Mr. Nice Guy, head coach Chris Finch. He's awful. Him and the Spurs coach are two peas in a pod.
Erik
They're going to have to go younger. With Gus's surgery I think you're stuck with Wallstedt and Gus for next season and you go young.
Maybe... Guerin pulls something off but I don't see it. It won't make sense on paper if it happens.
Don't know about Dylan Larkin, but you will always have Bob Dylan.🎸🎤😀
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Gustavsson is pretty much untradeable right now, he's hurt, had some weird vomiting problems during games last year and he has a complete no move contract. If you trade Brodin and Hughes goes to play with his brothers you will have ONE good D man left in two years. Jonas is BY FAR our best defensive defenseman. Ek is their best center and he too has a no move contract.
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That's so ridiculous it doesn't deserve a response. Do you even WATCH the games? Kaprizov had 15 points in 11 games in the playoffs this year. He was on the ice for 10 more goals than was scored against. OMFG! He's a bargain!
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I don't care how he does it, I think next year might be our best chance to win it all. Quinn Hughes is a big factor!
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The Twins are a joke, they don't even try to win. Need new ownership badly.
Faber was a great pick up. Boldy was a great draft pick and his contract is a bargain. Signing McCarron for $3M was a STEAL! He is huge and is very good at face offs. I predict he will play a lot next year and show improvement playing with better linemates.
Two of our "old guys" accounted for a LOT of offense last year. Zucc and Tarasenko. 100 points between the two. It will be interesting to see if they resign either or both. Nick Foligno is very old and made $4M last year. I think he'll be gone or take a huge pay cut. The problem with the "younger guys" is a lot of them got traded and the ones they have don't score much. Yurov does look like he has potential.
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I don't follow the Wolves.
I see a big year next year and a potential disaster after that, especially if Hughes leaves.
Hard to go young when you have given up so many prospects and if they go after Larkin, it may cost them MORE young guys AND maybe a 1st round pick.
GO WILD!
Wings won't take a goalie. They're set at that position with a loaded farm system as well. They also won't take a 32-year old defenseman.
They just got John Gibson and he is 33 years old and is worse than Gustavsson, who's 28 and Talbot is washed up. I don't know who they have in their farm system, but they aren't going to make a rookie their #1 goalie. Gibson is at .899 save % over the last 4 seasons. NOT GOOD. Gus is at .911 over the same period. Gus has a full no move contract, I don't see him waiving it. So that appears to be a moot point.
They just picked up Faulk last year and he's 34. I doubt he's anywhere near the player Brodin is.
Who knows if Larkin even gets moved. He's under contract for the next 5 years. Why does he want out?
My point was, the Wild can't pay Larkin and Hughes and a full roster without getting rid of at least one of their larger contracts.
SO, what do you think of the so called proposal I have been hearing about? Larkin for Wallstedt (yeah, I see he's a goalie) Yurov and Stramel plus a 1st round pick next year.
Wow, Moritz Seider looks like a great one!
I'd love to see Larkin in a Wild Jersey, but I really don't know how they make it happen. Give Brodin away?
What position does he play and can he win faceoffs?
Gibson isn't 33 yet (month away) and 33 isn't old for a goalie. He was terrific last year - Save % doesn't tell the full story. They have Sebastian Cossa and another guy in the AHL and then an elite prospect in another league. They aren't trading for a goalie when they have so many needs in other areas.
The Faulk trade was terrible.
I think the trade you proposed is not enough to get Larkin.
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Well, I wouldn't trade for Gustavsson right now either, even though his numbers (especially goals saved above average and quality start%) are FAR superior to Gibson's.
I'm not actually proposing a trade. Dylan Larkin is proposing a trade. My only question is if The Wild can acquire Larkin and stay under the cap and it doesn't look like it unless they get rid of someone who makes several million per year.
The "proposed" trade I have seen bantered about ( Stramel, Yurov and a #1) will not clear enough cap room to pay Larkin IF we need to save for Hughes's next contract. We should know in a couple of weeks what that looks like. If Quinn leaves to play with his brothers, we will have plenty of money.
I looked at the Red Wings and IMMEDIATELY saw how poor your goalies appeared to be and their ages and thought you might want a better, younger goalie. 33 is NOT old for some goalies, so that is true.
My other thought was Brodin. You (and the rest of the hockey fans) don't understand how good Brodin is because he's not a scorer. The guy is a superb skater and is assigned to cover the opponents best player. His contract is a bargain right now and he is one of the few players we have who is good and we can trade. 32 is not that old for a defenseman.
A better goalie and a great defenseman could really offset the loss of Larkin for you guys. 2 bottom 6 centers and a low first round pick WONT.
Nah. Again, goalie isn't the problem. Detroit already has 2 studs on defense in Seider and Edvinsson, with young guys on their way up as well. What is missing is 5-on-5 scoring. Other than Debrincat, they have nobody. If they're trading away a 30-goal scorer, they gotta get offense in return or prospects/picks that will give them offense. The trade you mentioned doesn't do that.
Again, I was attempting to show that Minnesota cannot take on Larkin's salary without moving at least one higher paid player.
Yurov has shown to be a solid defensive center with very little scoring skill and Stramel is projected to be a bottom 6 player (I hope that's wrong), a first round pick is most likely to be a later pick, so that's not much value to anyone either.
I realize you disagree, but you would be just as well off to improve your defense as to hope for a goal scorer.
I am beginning to wonder if Larkin even gets traded. Do you consider him a "superstar", or just a very good player? It looks like he would be a very nice fit here, but to get him we might need to get a third team involved. or make another trade to shed salary and that would potentially weaken the team in the effort to get a center.
If you can't get what you need in return, why even trade him? He's under contract. Has he said a lot about this trade request? Is it just frustration or is he insistent on wanting out? It appears he really has little leverage. If he let's his wanting out affect his play, that just lowers his value.
People here in Minnesota are DESPERATE for a top center. I recently read they tried to get Eichel and couldn't get him under the cap. Sound familiar?
If Quinn Hughes doesn't sign here, I'm assuming the Wild will do just about anything to get a top center. Guerin wants to win NOW.
P.S. you mentioned 5 on 5 scoring. Larking gets a lot of goals on the power play. He's averaged 17 even strength goals over the last 4 years.
Remember there is almost a 10% cap increase yoy until the next CBA negotiations begin in earnest. The increase in Kaps salary as a percentage of cap goes down next year even though the price goes up.
Guerin keeps saying he’s gonna land a top 6 center. I’m skeptical. What do you think of the mccarron extension?